America in 2034

Every weekday for two weeks–from June 9 to June 20–we are running essays by race-realist commentators on the future of American race relations. Specifically, we have asked them to imagine what America will be like 20 years from now. The ten contributors to the series, whom we will publish in alphabetical order, are:

John Derbyshire, Paul Gottfried, Gregory Hood, Joseph Kay, Paul Kersey, Tom Kuhmann, Gavin McInnes, Fred Reed, Richard Spencer, Jared Taylor.

It is our pleasure to present our fourth contributor, Joseph Kay.

Since the 1930s the black civil rights movement has hitched its wagon to the political process, and by 2034 that wagon will have come to a halt, even sliding a bit backwards. Its “big” agenda, for example, public accommodations and ballot access legislation, will be ancient history. Almost nobody alive will remember a world without affirmative action, racial gerrymandering, calls for greater diversity, and all the rest. Nevertheless, All the King’s trillions, and All the Queen’s invasive social working will not have brought about economic equality.

In fact, growing Hispanic power will have overtaken black political clout so that the black agenda will be largely defensive. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus, thanks to the spread of citizenship and new-found political consciousness, will be larger than the dwindling Congressional Black Caucus, whose impotence will be reflected in theatrical foolishness, for instance, demanding anti-racism laws. Many older blacks will express nostalgia for the Obama administration and the race-obsessed Eric Holder as “the good old days.”

The federal courts, once the black man’s great friend, will be the enemy as it reverses or severely restricts myriad racial preferences. Meanwhile, voters will have chipped away at once-sacred affirmative-action measures. Some 46 states in 2034, up from eight in 2014, will have constitutionally prohibited race preferences in state programs, including college admissions. The racial ideologues that once dominated the federal bureaucracy will have retired to giving fiery speeches at Progressive fund-raisers.

But not all news is bad news. There will be permanent black-run cities, or at least neighborhoods. Occasional “we-must-do-something” rhetoric aside, nobody honestly believes that Camden, NJ, East St. Louis, IL, Garry IN, Birmingham, AL, and a dozen more can be cured of chronic crime, widespread unemployment, inept administration and similar pathologies. Their persistent financial problems will have been solved by states assuming all financial responsibilities and managing most day-to-day administration.

Elsewhere, for example, in Washington, DC and Philadelphia, all-black enclaves will be designated “Historic Neighborhoods,” off-limits to yuppie homesteaders or business-friendly empowerment zones. The upshot will be steady, permanent employment for black fire-fighters, police officers, and other functionaries. Residents of these “homelands” will also tolerate underclass criminality such as petty drug dealing–behavior impermissible elsewhere.

The surrender to an obdurate reality will be clear in the silence surrounding “welfare reform.” It will have been almost four generations since Lyndon Johnson’s ill-fated War on Poverty and a half century since the Clinton-era put-them-to-work welfare overhauls, but there will be a permanently dependent black underclass. Habits are hard to reverse after nearly four generations of not seeing any adults get up in the morning and go to work. Section 8 housing, EBT cards, food stamps, school breakfast and lunch programs, among other government handouts, will be like Head Start: politically untouchable, even for skinflint Republicans. These programs gradually expand as the black underclass grows disproportionately, thanks to the low birth rate among well-educated black women.

A similar sanctity will also apply to “diversity” in the private sector. No academic or government study will have demonstrated diversity’s bottom-line benefits, but its alleged value will be deemed “settled science.” All major corporations will have raised tokenism to an art form, as well-paid black executives visit inner-city classrooms to entice students to choose careers in nuclear engineering. Meanwhile, smaller, under-the-radar firms will fudge statistics on workforce diversity by hiring Chinese and Indians as their requisite non-whites. This will be tolerated officially as the price to pay for US economic competitiveness.

Meanwhile, the cultural black/white divide will be unbridgeable. “Black English” will be officially recognized, and experts will be hired to translate it into Standard English. Underclass black fashion will increasingly reject anything “white,” and the result will be chronic unemployment. In particular, employers will be mortified by the prospect of being legally coerced into making “reasonable accommodations” for outlandish behavior and obscenity-laden speech.

The most notable change will have occurred in education. Schooling, top to bottom, will generally be racially segregated, a shift for the most part welcomed by blacks themselves (including the well-educated), since this guarantees thousands of jobs. “Black themed” schools obsessing over self-esteem will be ubiquitous, and considerations of “cultural competence” will eliminate the need for African Americans to pass “white” certification tests. That these schools will be unruly and even violent will further add to employment possibilities where the aim will be merely enticing kids to show up to sustain state funding. Zero academic progress also means that these make-work positions will be permanent. Since newly arrived immigrants will happily perform the jobs once done by blacks, the terrible work habits of these graduates will hardly be an economic crisis.

Self-segregation will apply equally to higher education. In 2014 there were 106 Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU), but by 2034 the figure will have fallen to 45. Still, thanks to generous government and private foundation support, the survivors will enjoy stellar facilities, well-paid faculty and, in some instances, impressive research institutes to attract leading black scholars. The dramatic upgrades plus generous scholarships will have alleviated much of the pressure on elite universities to admit more black students, an arrangement that will satisfy everyone.

Overall, race relations in 2034 will be judged a success, though not by the standards of the earlier civil rights movement. Inequality will remain pervasive, but few blacks will be angry, even those who are technically poor. The expanding underclass will thrive on its goodies-rich dependency, a modicum of cultural autonomy, and the election of rabble-rousing black office holders. Meanwhile, middle-class blacks will enjoy sinecures, especially in government. Those who would follow in the footsteps of 1960s violent black nationalists will, happily, now hold well-paid tenured positions at HBCU’s and will be busy organizing conferences denouncing lingering white racism and micro-aggressions.

Historically, this “domestication” from violence-tinged “black nationalism” to apathy is hardly unusual. Recall the late 19th century “Indian wars,” which some believed were never-ending and would render parts of the Southwest permanently uninhabitable. Today, of course, the “Indian problem” has long been forgotten. Let’s be thankful for boring solutions.