Posted on June 18, 2014

America in 2034

Fred Reed, American Renaissance, June 18, 2014

Every weekday for two weeks–from June 9 to June 20–we are running essays by race-realist commentators on the future of American race relations. Specifically, we have asked them to imagine what America will be like 20 years from now. The ten contributors to the series, whom we will publish in alphabetical order, are:

John DerbyshirePaul GottfriedGregory HoodJoseph KayPaul KerseyTom KuhmannGavin McInnes, Fred Reed, Richard SpencerJared Taylor.

It is our pleasure to present our eighth contributor, Fred Reed.

Blacks: Little or no change. Any improvement would require radically different attitudes toward schooling, work, and race. I see no signs of such. No one has an incentive to change things. Too many egos, rice bowls, programs, and votes depend on keeping blacks as they are.

Hispanics: Very different. Hispanics are not blacks, do not think like blacks, do not behave like blacks, do not like blacks, and have a very different culture and history.

The theory among Race Realists–who frequently aren’t–is that Hispanics are genetically inferior and incapable of modern civilization, and will therefore coalesce into permanently dysfunctional Bantustans on the model of Detroit. They may, which would be a disaster for the country. I think it far from certain.

Most of the immigrants are Mexicans and, since I live in Mexico, they are the ones I know best. Perhaps a glimpse of the country as seen from inside would help.

In 1929 at the end of the Cristero War, of which Americans have never heard, and the devastation of the Revolution, of which few Americans have heard, and the Porfiriata, of which . . . never mind . . . Mexico was prostrate. The population was almost entirely illiterate, ignorant, dirt poor, dirty, torpid, and widely regarded as genetically inferior. The evidence of genetic inferiority was circumstantial, but persuasive.

That was 85 years ago. The Mexico I live in today is generally modern, with functioning Internet service, landline phones, cell service, medical instrumentation, dentistry, computerized car dealerships, and several airlines. Maintaining high-bypass turbofans is not generally associated with stupidity. Coexisting with badly planned, crumbling roads of considerable age are modern, well-designed highways punched through difficult mountainous terrain with many bridges over valleys. Guadalajara has bookstores as good as any I knew in Washington–all the substance and half the schlock. In the Gonville bookstore in Plaza del Sol, the technical section is full of texts on neurophysiology, network analysis, cardiology, electrical engineering, and, depending on the season, stacks of freshman calculus texts.

For 85 years from a dead stop with nothing going for them at all, it isn’t bad progress. Mexico isn’t Detroit, gang. It really, truly isn’t.

No, Mexico isn’t Switzerland. In many ways it is a mess. For example, it is as corrupt all through society as the US is at the top. As a political model, it is terrible. There is still a lot of serious poverty. The government is awful. Etc.

But . . . and this is an important . . . they and many other Latin Americans are demonstrably, visibly–go look for yourself–capable of running a technological country. This does not establish that the immigrants will ever be successful in America. I think it establishes that they may be.

It is accepted among Race Realists that Mexicans have a mean IQ of 87, barely above the 85 that was once regarded as borderline retarded and only two points above American blacks. If so, the US is doomed. However, I see no evidence for retardation. It seems inconsistent with the level of technology and complexity of Mexican society, and with the fact that people here do not appear to be stupid. I read their newspapers and literature, listen to their talk radio. If they are dim, they hide it well.

But perhaps theirs is a feigned intelligence.

CalTech, arguably America’s most demanding school, does not practice affirmative action. Its students are scary smart. One percent are black, 8.3 percent are Hispanic (and about 40 percent are Asian). The US is 17 percent Hispanic, of whom a high proportion are recently arrived with little education and English, and thus are not in the running for admission. The 8.3 percent is not consistent with having virtually the same mean IQ as blacks. In the many instances in which IQ does not concord with observation, I go with observation.

(I might add that I am quite familiar with the IQ arguments, and know, by email, shared list-serves, or shared lunches, most of the major Race Realists.)

If the immigrants were middle class–now about half of Mexico is middle class–race relations could easily be predicted: Good. The bank clerks, businessmen, dentists, computer techs and so on that I deal with regularly are like the middle class anywhere. But doctors don’t swim the Rio Bravo. America is getting the lower classes, with all the traits usually found in the lower classes. They come to work, which is why American businessmen quietly like open borders. The huge, huge question is whether they will rise economically or become another criminal, parasitic nation within a nation. Evidence points both ways.

There are positive signs. What I have seen in the US–not all that much–suggests that amicable relations are possible. Violeta (my wife) and I have spent time in San Antonio and Houston, and found the two races mixed in restaurants, offices, and so on without visible self-consciousness, much less hostility. All, with the exception of two mowing a lawn, spoke English. My wife complained that most spoke execrable Spanish and regarded them matter-of-factly as gringos.

Nowhere have I encountered the intense hostility toward whites so common among blacks. You can cherry pick examples to find that kind of hostility, but you have to cherry pick. With blacks, you don’t.

Intermarriage? In the part of Mexico where I live, there is a fair amount of it. It seems to work about as well as marriage does anywhere else. If you want assimilation, this is good news. If you want racial purity, it is bad news. Either way, it happens.

So: In 20 years, what? I see a good chance that that Hispanics will have risen economically to at least the lower middle class–this is crucial–and will be peaceably and fairly well integrated into the country. We had better hope. If, instead, they form brown slums à la Newark and Chicago, we will be, in a word, screwed.