Wojciech Kość, Politico, June 1, 2025
Right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly beat centrist Rafał Trzaskowski in Poland’s presidential election runoff, winning 50.89 percent of the vote to 49.11 percent, according to the electoral commission.
The result was a dramatic shift from an initial exit poll released immediately after voting ended at 9 p.m. In that survey, which had a 2 percentage point margin of error, Trzaskowski had 50.3 percent compared to 49.7 percent for Nawrocki. Turnout was 71.6 percent.
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Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and also by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, aims to pull Poland away from the European mainstream in a more populist direction.
A Nawrocki victory deals a significant blow to the Tusk government. Many of its legislative efforts had been blocked by PiS-aligned incumbent President Andrzej Duda and that is likely to continue under Nawrocki.
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“Nawrocki’s presidency means a high-level conflict between the president and Tusk,” said Joanna Sawicka, a political analyst with Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based think tank. “But it’s clear that it will be difficult for the government to implement key reforms because the president can veto most of them.”
The Polish presidency is a largely ceremonial function, and the government is in charge of foreign policy, but the president can veto legislation or send it off for judicial review. The Tusk-led coalition doesn’t have the votes in parliament to override that, so a President Nawrocki will make it very difficult for the prime minister to govern.
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