The World’s Most Important Graph

Steve Sailer, UNZ Review, April 23, 2015

To understand what’s at stake regarding the Mediterranean, here’s a graph I made from the numbers in World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision: Volume II: Demographic Profiles, which was published in 2013 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

The United Nations’ population projections for the continent of Africa are on p. 10 of the paper document (p. 36 of the PDF); the data for the continent of Europe are on p. 23 (p. 49 of the PDF).

(Now, of course, these UN projections are based on the highly arguable premise that the emigration rate out of Africa will decline steadily. The million or so Africans currently massed in Libya waiting to set sail for the EU, where they will invite their relatives back home to join them, would probably not agree with that heroic assumption.)


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  • African population projections also depend on the ability of the First World to keep providing them aid.

    There are 5.7 billion people who live in countries whose GDP per capita stats are lower than Mexico’s.

    • Light from the East

      That means we should stop sending aids to them or send them genetic-modified crops to make them all sterilized. They can happily live this life without worrying about food and without having any kid. Reduce their population without killing, wars, and diseases. Thus, the quality of overall human beings is improved and our Earth is saved by relieving the population pressure of billions of low-quality humans.

      • KyraNelson

        Too bad Europeans have sterilized themselves.

  • David Ashton

    “Fortress Europe”? Better late, than never.

    • WR_the_realist

      “Fortress Europe” — we can only hope.

      • David Ashton

        We can make the case as best we can, and wherever we can. “A single spark can start a prairie fire” (Chairman Mao).

        • Bossman

          Chinese people don’t quote from the Bible or the Qu’ran. They quote from their philosophers and wise men and it is all about war and deception.

          • 李冠毅

            “it is all about war and deception.”

            I guess you don’t know much about Confucius or Mengzi.

          • Whitetrashgang

            Bossman is just a kid, he doesn’t mean to be rude to you.

          • Lexonaut

            “Why don’t you try learning a bit about Asian culture before you start riticizing? Much of what you’ve been saying about us is nonsense.”

            People forget, or rather never learned in the first place, that Ancient China and Ancient Egypt both had civilizations that endured basically unchanged for 3,000 years. They believed they had perfected the art of living and it is hard for me, a westerner, to argue with their success.

            Furthermore, both societies had merit-based civil service government administration, something the USA is actively dismantling. In Egypt the children of dirt-poor farmers stood a chance of becoming scribes if they could attract the attention of a sponsor — and scribes could hope to become viziers, just as kids in the USA can hope to rise to high office in the military and government.

            I’m not an expert but I try to learn at least something from the history of other successful civilizations.

          • 李冠毅

            “I’m not an expert but I try to learn at least something from the history of other successful civilizations.”

            That’s a good attitude. Some people I’ve talked to view certain cultures as below them and not worth their attention. That’s something I don’t encourage. We have an idiom, 不耻下问, which means don’t be ashamed to seek knowledge from those with a lower education level or of a lower social class than you. I’ve read moral stories from various cultures, including those which historically have accomplished much less than my own, and I have picked up many useful ideas, which wouldn’t have been possible had I decided to shut out these alleged “lesser cultures”.

          • David Ashton

            Quite so. In England, instead of improving the selective education at secondary level, the grammar schools were almost all closed down, and then later Mickey Mouse “uni” courses were offered to all and sundry with “graduates” stuck with appalling personal debts. We can and should live and learn from other societies, rather than jumbling them all together in a lower-common-denominator mess.

          • David Ashton

            My old East End aunty used to say, “There’s good and bad in all races, but some are cleverer than others, and all of them should have their own homes to go to.”

          • Lexonaut

            I want my neighbors to be civilized people who share my values and who pose no threat of violent crime. I have Hispanic neighbors who are like this and would not mind Chinese, Japanese or Jewish neighbors — they are almost certain to be professionals like me, and I would have much more in common with them than with any white truck driver, for example, simply because of common experiences and common goals However, I want nothing to do with either Mestizos or blacks

    • listenupbub

      Perhaps Europe is where we belong. A lot of white guilt would be gone if we did not live on the land that another people group found first.

      • David Ashton

        How much land did the “Native Americans” actually own, develop or share with one another? Immigrants do not come to build farms and railroads from scratch, but to inhabit the infrastructure built by people of European origin.

  • Whitetrashgang

    Truly frightening,I wonder if planet Earth will now lose 80 percent of it value and become uninhabitable .Except in the far north and under water.

    • Speedy Steve

      If all the Africans are coming here, then perhaps we could claim a vast area of the Congo and settle there. Have to seal the borders, though. And deny admission to bleeding-heart progressives.

  • TruthBeTold

    I guess the prediction that AIDS was going to devastate Africa was only wishful thinking.

    • WR_the_realist

      No one with sense ever thought the AIDS (or Ebola, or malaria) would decimate the African population. Africans have the highest fertility rates in the world. If half their kids died before reaching maturity Africa’s population would still grow.

    • John Smith

      Thank Bono and the other do-gooders for making white countries subsidize HIV drugs for African savages.

      • Cindy

        So disgusting when a White man gets rich off of White First World countries then chooses Africa as his charity. Him and Affleck, both tools.

        • Reverend Bacon

          Disgusting? Yeah, perhaps. But it makes total sense. Their actions are completely rational. They don’t care at all about losing 10%, or even half, of their wealth. It wouldn’t change a thing in their lives. But they see this as an insurance policy against an invasion, or a seizing of all their wealth by a PO’d government. “Giving back,” is just a code phrase for “buying insurance.” The altruism in these people is zero.

          • David Ashton

            Foreign “aid” – the confiscation of wealth from the poor in white countries for transfer to the rich in non-white countries?

        • Wing-nut.

          They seem more like spoiled children than men.

          • Cindy

            “They seem more like spoiled children than men.”
            You’re right. I gave way too much credit referring to them as “men.”

        • John Smith

          Affleck is embarrassed about having slave owners in his family tree – enough that he had PBS censor the info in Henry Louis Gate’s pro-miscegenation genealogy show. He’d probably have been happier, ecstatic even, if his white great-grandmother had been raped by a negro.

          • Cindy

            “He’d probably have been happier, ecstatic even, if his white great-grandmother had been raped by a negro.”
            Yes, Affleck is that sick and demented.
            Did you see his Twitter pic? He’s in the Congo surrounded by blacks. So impressive! See, he’s not racist. He loooves black people.
            Imagine the utter and complete denial it takes to go to the Congo and still believe the races are the same. He has to be completely retarded.

      • dewdly

        HIV drugs were subsidized in Africa to save the pharmaceutical companies from bankruptcy when it became obvious that AZT was killing Americans. They simply rolled up the AIDS quilt, switched the conversation to “gay marriage” and transferred the “AIDS epidemic” to Africa. If they were really using those toxic drugs in Africa the African population would not be growing.

  • JohnEngelman

    We need fewer numbers and higher quality.

    • Exuberant Auditor

      Based on the fertility rates statistics, we couldn’t be doing a better job right now at the “fewer numbers” part.

      • David Ashton

        Have you a remedy?

        • Exuberant Auditor

          What we need is fear-mongering. We need to stoke the reptilian part of the white man’s brain with images of Africans flocking in tens of thousands to his ancestral white lands, with numbers and projections of how the African is multiplying like crazy — we don’t even have to lie.

          Conservatism and right-wing politics are motivated by two things: nostalgia to certain good traits of the past that are no more, and primal fear. If you stoke each or both of these things enough, you’ll get people to lean more rightward on this issue of immigration. They already have in Europe.

          Europeans everywhere have simply been numbed with discourses of how great immigration and immigrants are, and have thus let their guard down. This needs to be reversed, and as I said, one doesn’t even have to lie.

          The second remedy is of course encouraging birth.

          • David Ashton


    • Publius Pompilius Quietus

      Instead, as a result of international egalitarianism, there is the opposite: increasing populations of people with poor quality. Such dysgenic trends would be bad enough, but these people believe they have a right to live in our countries. Hence, this amounts to us being replaced by lesser people in the homelands our forefathers founded.

      • David Ashton

        One of the people of color in fancy dress who frightened Farage’s family had a slogan on her back: “I have the write [sic] to live where I like”.

        • Susannah

          Those with the greatest deficit of positive traits certainly seem to exhibit the greatest amounts of entitlement and gall.

          • David Ashton

            Two subsidiary problems: (1) Intelligent people usually realize their own personal limitations, whereas stupid people regard themselves as intelligent, but (2) intelligent people are not closely familiar with stupid people and do not appreciate their personal limitations.

      • listenupbub

        And once they are in our countries, they think they have a right to our women.

  • Luca

    Mother Nature has a cure for overpopulation, but Liberals keep messing with Mother Nature. The only aid that should be sent to Africa is birth control.

    • David Ashton

      The missionaries were accused of carrying the Bible and the Maxim gun. How about the Contraceptive and the Sterilization needle? A stitch in time saves nine.

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        • Whitetrashgang

          I always to have longer with friends and family.

    • Chip Carver

      With Europe’s move to the right slowly gaining steam and the inevitable collapse of what’s in place in the US, the charity, foreign aid, welfare, everything is going to go away, or at least most of it. The populations of Africa, Latin America, other third world areas, will all drop, and rather quickly too. Never mind what will happen in N. America to these peoples without handouts.

      • Bossman

        A lot of violence and chaos will be the results.

      • TruthBeTold

        I never underestimate the noble acts of the do-gooders to keep pumping money and support to Africans.

        They refuse to let nature run its course.

    • John Smith

      And bullets so they can kill each other.

      • Speedy Steve

        As a US army sergeant in Somalia told author of Holidays In Hell, PJ O’Rourke: the best solution is to seal off the borders and provide them with better weapons.

        • TruthBeTold

          My solution has been to put a 40 foot fence around the continent and post ‘ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK’ signs every 20 feet.

        • John Smith

          I even thought that as a teen – drop Mad Dog and Old English 800 into the ‘hood along with cheap handguns and wall it off.

      • TruthBeTold

        Have you seen the recent stories coming out of South Africa?

        South Africans and ‘migrants’ are killing each other with machetes.

        Go to google images: south african migrant killings

        • John Smith

          Most of them don’t like to work that hard.

    • That graph is one of the reasons why I support Asian and Western nationalists working together; we need to understand that the civilised races of the planet are facing an increasing threat and that we are soon going to be utterly outnumbered by the ‘uncivilised’ if we do not work together and stand up for our interests. So we need to get the situation in Africa under control before we are outnumbered by Africans who will all ‘migrate’ to the West and increasingly also to East Asia.

      • SentryattheGate

        Speaking of outnumbered; between the Chinese and Indians, they comprise nearly 1/2 of world population! Caucasians make up ~10% (?). Asians (Eastern and Indian) DID NOT provide foreign aid, food and medical aid etc, as Whites did. It was maybe well-intentioned but detrimental to White interests. I really question that Asians (+ Indians) will have Whites’ interest in mind! Well except for stealing/pirating our technology and breeding with Whites to lighten skin tones, round out the eyes, and improving their gene stock!

      • Jim Kental

        I fully agree. For years I divided the world population into 2 groups as well: Eurasian people and Afro-Latino “people”…… but I like the civilized and uncivilized terms more. My years as a public school teacher enlightened me greatly on racial knowledge. Academically, the white and Asians were light years ahead of the blacks and latinos (although there were a few good black and latino students….. but very few, and nowhere as bright as the white and Asian geniuses). Interestingly, Obama himself says in his autobiography (if he did write it) that he noticed on his visit to Silicon Valley that basically all the engineers and technicians there were white and Asian. And he added that he understood that the tech companies could only hire the best and brightest, and that a diversity outreach could undermine their competitive edge in the world. Yet too many white and Asian liberals want to import countless hordes of the uncivilized……….. what are they smoking?

        • listenupbub

          It’s not about the money, money, money.

      • Spaniard in LA

        Is that brown I see on your nose?

      • Whitetrashgang

        I think the best thing is China continues to colonize Africa,and replace most the people.

        • David Ashton

          After the war the idea of Europe-Africa was quite attractive, with the successful areas of South Africa and Rhodesia playing a major party. All we got from the UK government was the pathetic groundnut scheme, followed by a premature retreat from colonialism, which has been a major factor in Black African failure. The “equality” illusion hasn’t done the blacks any favors apart from their clamorous demand on guilt-ridden westerners. If these migrants from north African had any brains they would not have risked drowning or murder on the “boats”.

      • listenupbub

        You have to spread the word to your nation that China is not immune to the hoards of demanding third-worlders.

      • David Ashton

        Hindu India has a vast social range, from rich and intelligent Brahmins to poor and oppressed Sudras. Many English have an historic affection for the Jewel in the Imperial Crown, which they do not, perhaps unfortunately, have for the Chinese, probably because of the language difference and also the Caucasian appearance of northwestern Indians. My childhood recollection of India (as a visitor not a colonial) is of the combined smell of cow dung and cinnamon in the streets. Surprisingly on official figures at any rate there are more Indians (Hindus, Sikhs, Christians) in England than Muslims but they make less fuss and are more easily assimilable. I am all for peaceful co-existence between Europe, China and India, but multiculturalism has no attractions or benefits for me (occasional Chinese food apart).

      • Batterytrain

        Indians are a civilized race, they were one of the first ones to have advanced cultures in Indus valley; they invented Buddhism which is a highbrow religion. Also India is a huge country with different peoples. The uncivilized ones are mostly of particular castes or they pertain mostly to the northern regions. They invented a lot of stuff and made major advancements in mathematics/science and they came up with black hole theory before the first rocket was launched into space. Smart Indians should not be held down by their uncivilized counterparts.
        Otherwise i generally agree with all your points and statements……..

      • Batterytrain

        I’m sorry but i don’t think Asians are a civilized race in retrospect. Starting from the way they treat animals to their myopicness regarding the environment and man’s relationship to it.

        They have failed to adopt or create Western echelon philosophies and works of that caliber due to their poor abstract abilities, and that is evident in their over-populationist tendencies and the great pollution they create; not to mention the common corruption inherent within their societies, their lack of morality/human emotions and also the stuff that they eat. There is nothing to suggest that Asians are really a civilized people EVEN CLOSE to the level of Westerners; rather the impression the Westerner gets is that Asians are a savage people hiding behind a superficial veneer of accidental civilization.

        From a Western POV, the Asians are at the same level of civilization as Indians and this is a fact confirmed from speaking to expats and people who have had contacts with them or lived around them for extensive periods of time. It’s b/c of asians that so many African megafauna is disappearing; all because asian men, even educated ones, believe that animal parts (like moonbear bile, Rhinoceras horns, tiger/bull penis’s etc) will solve their penis sexual problems. This is not a sign of a civilized people, i’m sorry!

    • ejXinMI

      An embargo on bags would help… the lusty lovebirds would then have to see each other’s ugly mug. Surely that would take the lead out of their pencils.

  • Truthseeker

    The only way Africans will stop trying to get into Europe is if they’ve sufficiently trashed it and it’s no longer a desirable destination. If you care about preserving civilization, put your foot down and keep them out now.

    • newscomments70

      That will mean making whites into a minority less than 1%. Even South Africa, with whites at 4% of the population, is still the most desirable country to live in Africa.

  • MadmanMarz

    The graph may trend in that direction but the population will never reach those numbers for they are unsustainable. Who’s going to have the resources to feed the african continent when the producers of the industrialized world are in decline? Answer, nature will take her course and cull the heard, you can only artificially keep mother nature in check for so long.

    • David Ashton

      We must save the European civilization in the process.

  • anony

    “Dat graphs be raciss!!!

    • a1781054

      Das raciss!

  • Wow 4.5 billion blacks living in Africa in the year 2100, up from 1.1 billion today! And they’ll all be living together peacefully so that increased mortality from say: murders, civil wars, national wars, and the odd imported nuclear warhead won’t affect the growth rate.

    I wonder how these demographers generate their numbers? For example I’m sure they’ve included calculations for increased water supply (probably by basing it upon what technologically advanced cultures do).

    • Bossman

      With numbers like that all the more reason to believe that Mother Nature operates on the principle of chaos.

    • Speedy Steve

      In 1960 the population of Africa was 400 million.

  • newscomments70

    I can see undesirable, poor Eastern European countries becoming havens for displaced whites in Western Europe…the Africans will soon follow though.

    • Speedy Steve

      Romania does not suffer from Africans, yet.

      • newscomments70

        when they suck the life out of western Europe, they will come to Romania. As soon as Western Europe sinks below Eastern Europe, this is what will happen. They will go to Poland first though….they already are to some degree.

        • Speedy Steve

          Tolerance is not a virtue.

      • Lexonaut

        And it never will. There is no way the Rom are going to allow competition.

      • Diana Moon Glampers

        I saw two in my town last summer, up from only one in the previous five years. If I see any this year, I am going to yell at them.

        And stop telling everyone, I am trying to keep my corner of paradise a secret.

        • Speedy Steve

          Tell the RRom they taste like fried chicken

  • MekongDelta69

    …And Africa will be a worse hell-hole than it is now (if that’s even possible).

    …And they’ll still be about 25,000 years behind us in evolutionary terms.

    • phillyguy

      A new epidemic every 5 years or so usually kills about 10 million of them anyway

      • Exuberant Auditor

        I don’t think that’s true. Ebola for example only killed 10,000. By contrast, a country like Nigeria increase by 6,000 people every day.

  • Interesting graph, but only a couple of problems:
    First, remember that “Europe’s” population appears to not grow at all. Actually, the situation is worse than that. Many of “Europe’s” people are only European in location, not race, culture, ethnicity, or even personal loyalty.
    Second, the projection for Africa assumes that the current rate of growth will continue. I find that hard to believe. As there are fewer and fewer Whites in the world, and as the lower number of Whites becomes more and more impoverished, there will be less and less money to feed that huge useless race of hominids breeding in Africa. Eventually starvation and disease, i.e. “natural selection” will take their toll.
    That is all. Just had to point that out.

    • SentryattheGate

      That graph doesn’t even contain the largest groups in the world: Asians + Indians, many coming to the US!

  • ricpic

    Okay, we all know the answer, which is to turn the guns on the boats filled with Africans as they approach the Italian or Greek or French shores and open fire. And we also know that the present western ruling class will never take that action. Therefore only civil war leading to the overthrow of the ruling class holds ANY hope of saving the White West.

  • Caucasoid88

    The new question is, will the liberals allow us to protect our borders with extreme prejudice in 2100? Or will our rulers continue down this suicidal path?

    • Irish

      By 2100 the small population of White Americans will be in no position to effect policy anywhere. Much less defend what ever border, in what use to be The United States of America may, or quite possibly, may not have…The die , so to speak is cast.

  • Reverend Bacon

    Of course Africa wants to dump its population problem in someone else’s backyard. And any interference with this crime against humanity is considered racist. I actually had someone from Morris Dees and his cast of idiots tell me that Africans have a right to come to Europe; further, that, AmRen’s opposition to that showed “interference” with such people.

    Here are two direct quotes. They keep deleting my posts there, but it’s their posts that are the true gems.

    “AmRen and their supporters wish to drastically suppress the ability of non-whites to emigrate to the US and Europa – sounds kinda like interference to me.”- gavinjamescampbell

    “If you concede that it is immoral for one group to interfere with another’s affairs; then you cannot in good faith describe AmRen as a harmless, pro-white group that only wants to secure white interests. Because, as a matter of fact, they are a group that actively wants to interfere with the affairs of those who are not white, or those whites who want to get along with non-whites.”- Hskol, aka SevenSamurandwiches

  • Exuberant Auditor


  • dd47

    African (and to a lesser extent, Middle Eastern) population growth is undeniably an issue (perhaps even the leading issue of this century) that faces all of civilization.

    Living standards are a product of culture. Culture is a product of race. Race is a product of genetics. People who deny this may as well believe that roads pave themselves, buildings build themselves, that the immoral are as worthy as the moral, that the unintelligent are as worthy as the intelligent. It is these unrealistic ideas that ultimately lead to leftism- whether the American “melting pot” variety or the authoritarian Communist variety of which are both roads towards the same outcome. Both the Founding Fathers and the Marxists would have shared more in common than either of them with true conservatives or nationalists.

    This cultural/racial connection is one of the reasons why Islam is a global issue- it is the cultural product of the Arabic people, and its expansion is just the same as Middle Eastern population or military expansion. Non-Arabs who submit to Islam are essentially submitting to the Arabic people.

    Europe only has this “we’ll soon be a minority in the countries we built” problem because it is currently the pinnacle of human civilization. Immigration is generally a one-way trip- people don’t want to move to a place they perceive as being worse as their own (hence the leftist idea “they’re just coming to seek a better life).

    And what happens when Europe/N. America collapses? The incentive to move there will be erased and they will instead plague Asia/the other Americas. And this is already underway- Guangzhou in China, Roppongi in Japan. No doubt some Asians foolishly believe they will be spared- but globalism is after all globalism and last I checked, Asia was on the globe. They won’t be an exception.

    Civilization is in reality fast declining and no globalist organization like the EU or UN (both products of far-leftist ideals) can stop it. They were doomed from the start- considering combating the symptoms without combating the cause. The only threat they pose is that they will tear down the entire world in an attempt to achieve it. Globalists are anti-civilization just for believing what they do- and the blood of everyone who has died as a result of “multicultural ideals”- e.g. White South Africans and countless Americans killed in the wave of “diversity”- is on their hands.

    Africa and South America have already gone down this road before Europe or Asia have. Africa was “multicultural” long before Europe- Arabs were taking Africans to as far as Iran, Europeans taking them to South America. Colonialism and immigration are the exact same thing- even the leftists subconsciously agree, hence why they bring up the “native Americans” being “displaced” every time White Americans bring up the fact they will be displaced from their own country. Obviously their mind has connected the two but they are too stupid to realize that displacement by immigration is no morally superior than displacement by colonialism.

    Africa and South America remain as racially polarized as they were centuries ago and are existing proof that no amount of trying to destroy racial/cultural/tribal/religious entities will bring a state of unity. They still resemble Apartheid despite the fact that rabid far-leftists are in control in most of both continents- clearly unable to progress in their agendas but no less motivated despite their endless stream of failures.

  • Sam Brown

    Too little, too late.

  • Hilis Hatki

    I wish I had a high IQ so I could solve this problem.

  • Diana Moon Glampers

    The graph would be much more interesting if it measured people of European ancestry vs people of African ancestry, rather than population locations.

    • That would be racist. Outright illegal in France, for example. Listing anything by race, which after all, does not exist.

      You mean it would be relevant to know if the already low population numbers in Europe would be 40% African and Arab Muslims by 2100? Certainly there will be no relevant number of Whites left in Africa by 2100.

      Even if by 2100 a whopping 2000 Million of the 4000 Million Africans moved to Europe to enrich the 600 (?) Million Whites there, there still would be twice as many Blacks starving in Africa than there are now being fed by foreign aid.

  • carriewhite64

    It’s amazing what a visual can communicate forcefully. That is truly terrifying.

  • Paleoconn

    Steve Sailer : the world’s most important social scientist.

  • 李冠毅

    Huh? I AM living in my ancestral homeland, and I don’t plan on moving away. Also, in case you don’t know, Bossman isn’t White – he’s Hispanic. I was just calling him out on his tendency to attack other non-Whites while trying his best to defend his race. Try paying attention to his comments – he believes Hispanics should be allowed to immigrate into White countries, yet he claims to care about Whites and their culture. Even I don’t try to pretend that mass immigration of my race into White countries will benefit the locals.