South Korea ‘To Go Extinct by 2750’

Jonathan Cheng, Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2014

South Korea’s fertility rate is so low that the country’s population could go the way of the dinosaurs by 2750, according to a new simulation commissioned by the National Assembly in Seoul.

In that dubious respect, South Korea is on track to outpace its neighbor Japan: according to a widely-circulated report two years ago, Japan will go extinct in about one thousand years. That study drew skepticism from some quarters, but added to the growing urgency about Japan’s demographic future.

But Japan at least starts with more people, with a current population of about 127 million, more than twice that of South Korea.

Making things worse, South Korea has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, well below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children. While the statistics vary slightly, the average South Korean woman bears about 1.25 children, compared to Japan’s 1.40 children, according to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Only Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau and Singapore have lower rates.

According to the South Korea simulation, conducted by the National Assembly Research Service, the country’s current population of about 50 million people will fall to 20 million by the end of the century, assuming a fertility rate of 1.19 children per women.

{snip}

Needless to say, caveats abound. The simulation’s conclusions, notably, sidestep a number of key unknowns, like the question of North Korea and the future of the Korean peninsula, or any changes in immigration policy in South Korea.

South Korea’s fertility rate could also rebound. South Korea’s rate has actually been ticking higher in recent years from a low of 1.08 in 2005, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Starting with President Park Chung-hee’s rise in the early 1960s, South Korea began a national family planning campaign, actively encouraging its families to have fewer children.

The policy, which stretched well into the 1980s, may have worked too well: “Even two children per family are too many for our crowded country,” read one South Korean government poster from the 1980s.

{snip}

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  • MekongDelta69

    Because this WSJ genius is absolutely able to see 750 years into the future.

    Here’s a bold prediction:
    I predict that Jonathan Cheng won’t be around 750 years from now. Hoo boy, did I go out on a limb, or what?!

    • Kate M. Johnson

      ­­­­­­­­­­­­my&nbsproomate’s&nbspsister&nbsp­­­­Μ­­­­а­­­­κ­­­­℮­­­­ѕ­­­­&nbsp­­­­­­­­$­­­­­75//hr&nbspon&nbspthe&nbsp­­­­l­­­­а­­­­р­­­­τ­­­­օ­­­­р­­­­.&nbspShe&nbsphas&nbspbeen&nbspwithout&nbspa&nbsp­­­­ј­­­­օ­­­­ƅ­­­­&nbspfor&nbspseven&nbsp­­­­Μ­­­­օ­­­­ո­­­­τ­­­­հ­­­­ѕ­­­­&nbspbut&nbsplast&nbsp­­­­Μ­­­­օ­­­­ո­­­­τ­­­­հ­­­­&nbspher&nbspincome&nbspwas&nbsp­­­­­­­­$­­­­­12312&nbspjust&nbsp­­­­W­­­­օ­­­­r­­­­κi­­­­ng­­­­&nbspon&nbspthe&nbsp­­­­l­­­­а­­­­р­­­­τ­­­­օ­­­­р­­­­&nbspfor&nbspa&nbsp­­­­Ϝ­­­­℮­­­­W­­­­&nbsp­­­­հ­­­­օ­­­­υ­­­­r­­­­s­­­­.&nbspchecκ&nbspհ­­­­­­℮­­­­­­r­­­­­­℮,…C&#x61&#115&#104&#x53&#x74&#111r&#101d&#46&#x43&#111&#77

      ✔✔✔ ✔✔✔ ✔✔✔ �✔✔✔ ✔✔✔

  • D.B. Cooper

    Maybe Cheng is upset at a large number of Korean women want a white husband, no matter if he’s three times her age.

    • IstvanIN

      Creepy if you ask me, and not because of the racial aspect.

      • David Ashton

        These oriental internet brides for elderly white men are “the thing” in Britain too. Usually not so pretty, but supposedly more docile around the house.

        As for Korea and Japan, who is going to suggest immigration of young Africans too look after them as they all grow old – as in the EU?

      • SheilaTX

        He looks like a typical old man; she’s got a horse’s face.

        • authorizedversion .

          Most Asian women, including Japanese, look like boys. The pretty ones look like little girls. No thanks.

      • Jack Burton

        The look on the guy’s face is creepy, like he can’t believe he can get away with interracial pedophilia.

        • captainc

          haha, but asians do look younger. she is probably in her 20s.

    • Korean guy

      Cheng is not a Korean last name, and those young Asian women who marry such aging males usually file for a divorce or simply run away after she gains the citizenship

      • Magician

        Hm I just looked up for the origin of “Cheng” and it is Chinese

        wikipedia[dot]org/wiki/Cheng_(surname)

        • Guest

          🙂

      • evilsandmich

        I didn’t think that she looked very Korean, or Chinese for that matter. My money would be from one of the Southeast Asian nations that have Chinese populations of various quality.

      • AndrewInterrupted

        Ayup, it’s one of many U.S. citizenship scams.

    • Magician

      Good job, you took a couple of minutes to find a picture of an Asian bride and a very old white man on Google.

      • AndrewInterrupted

        D.B. is in a slump.

        • D.B. Cooper

          Actually, the most populous race on Earth should have no worries about going extinct, despite the males having problems finding wives. They abort or kill female babies, and the women are the female half of the most common interracial marriage on Earth.

    • benvad

      This broad ain’t Korean she’s Thai.

    • Garrett Brown

      That woman isn’t Korean.

    • Magician

      Or this couple

      But anyways, a few months ago, there was an article about how African men in China started to marry local Chinese women in Guangzhou, China

      amren[dot]com/news/2014/07/afro-chinese-marriages-boom-in-guangzhou-but-will-it-be-til-death-do-us-part

      Mark Zuckerberg ( Jewish ) and Priscilla Chan ( Chinese ) are basically John Engelman’s favorite couple in this world.

    • Paleoconn

      She looks SE Asian. He looks Jewish.

  • Easyrhino

    I can also see 700+ years into the future:

    CNN dot com year 2793, headline: “Legacy of Slavery Still Keeping Blacks Down”

    • Rhialto

      SF Addon: Blacks will have been slaves of Asians from 2080 until 2752, when the last Asians migrated from the toxic polluted earth for other worlds. A few White male Liberals will have been reanimated so the newly freed slaves will have victims to play with.

  • JohnEngelman

    South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are densely populated. They are fortunate to have a low birth rate without a coercive one child only policy inforced by the government, like it is Communist China.

    • Publius Pompilius Quietus

      You’ll find that more intelligent animals (EG Wolves) birth less offspring than dumb animals (EG Turtles), which seems also to be the case within humans. It is an evolutionary assumption that dumb things will die off more easily.

      • M&S

        Alpha wolves kill or maul and exile Betas who try to breed and rape or mutilate Omegas to create forced class structures.

        By the same token however; an Alpha wolf ‘greets’ it’s comrades by rolling on it’s back and showing it’s belly and throat for playful nip and nuzzle stress relief on the part of the subs.

        This has a dark ending however in that, when alphas can no longer hunt, they are set upon and their natural reaction makes it easy for them to be killed and eaten so that the chain of life can pass to the next strongest.

        People should not coo and gurgle about the Law Of The Strong as represented by ‘highly intelligent’ animal populations until they understand, fully, what the Rule Of The Wild really means.

        Japan is pushing _hard_ into robotics so that they can decrease the huge crush of overmanning from their grossly overpopulated retail sales (think ‘Are you being served?’ in Kanji, with literally 3-4 people waiting on every specialty table and a floor walker running herd on all of them).

        They are also encouraging women to come back out of the home once their child bearing years are finished and allowing elderly to continue working as long as they feel up to it.

        Japan is also -highly- communal and will generally go out of their way to make sure everyone has a share in the community as a function of apartment, food, and check-in assurance (they are also highly class conscious so it’s not altogether a utopian vision).

        All this while allowing 2-3 foreign nationals to immigrate per year. Not percent. PERSONS.

        Japan will survive.

        What will make it easier, as women become more and more chary about bulging preggo paunches that never go away and hips that never narrow after the watermelon passage, is going to be EUFI (extrauterine fetal incubation) driven exogenics.

        It may have already been done with Eve and is certainly within the realm of possibility via 3D genetic printing but rather than ‘supermen’, it’s likely first use will simply be to top off populations which are having too few natural children, probably by giving wealthy women the chance to have 2-3-4 kids at once without fear of high risk pregnancies.

        Again, the Asians have no moral, religious or prudish fears of this and will do what Americans refuse to consider, simply to have an out. That they can then -sell- such machines, along with retroviral injection techniques to couples around the planet looking for more than their own DNA as a leveraging tool into the future is a given.

        China is doing much the same thing, behind closed doors, and they have the added benefit of ongoing eugenics programs as well: college women get a ‘city resident’ voucher and free or reduced cost apartments for having kids. Rural women do not. Smart kids are grouped together from early age and encouraged to find in-class partners etc.

        When you consider that China is already graduating 50,000+ STEM majors to the <10,000 in America, _every year_, it becomes easy to predict a mid-century flip in innovative ideas and resulting patent applications.

        That is one of the few big payoff considerations of having large starting populations, moving into a modern era in that, as you neck down, you have an enormous gene pool from which to build quality societies from without having to go wage slave immigration.

        Within reason (rural municipalities have to be paid off in tax breaks and aided farm improvement) this keeps it all in the family as a loyal, ethnically homogenous, population standard.

  • TheCogitator

    A prediction 736 years in the future is worthless. We may all be extinct by then.

    • Magician

      yup yup

  • D.B. Cooper

    The year 2750??? Jeezus H…… nevermind. Not even HE was around 2,750 years ago!

  • IstvanIN

    A smaller population in a crowded nation isn’t a bad thing. What they might want to do is encourage a two-child policy to stabilize the population. That is what Vietnam has done. That is a sensible policy in that it avoids the massive increase in population, followed by the one child policy, resulting sex imbalance and potential crash that China has, is and may be suffering through.

    • Kenner

      Halving their populations would increase their quality of life, and the notion they’ll go extinct is laughable.

      • JohnEngelman

        Fewer people mean that there is more of everything good to go around.

        • UncleSham

          Yeah, but there are less people to make those good things that go around.

  • authorizedversion .

    Japan and South Korea are dying. Japanese women refuse to marry and bear the children of their men. There was an article here on Amren a few years ago that stated that Japanese women in the U.S. married White men at a higher rate than to other men of Japanese descent. If this is true, it is despicable and a great shame on the Japanese people. Yes, I know, I’ve heard that the nation of Japan is beautiful and calm and neat and quiet. Just like a cemetery.

    • The highest value in Japan is materialism. That accounts for the really zany aspects of their culture such as the crazy Japanese porn. Materialism makes you do weird things.

    • kjh64

      Japanese men and women decide together how many kids to have. Japan is very crowded and expensive so they often decide to only have one kid. It’s not a matter of Japanese women refusing anything. Japan also has an out of wedlock birthrate of only 1 percent.

      • CourtneyfromAlabama

        There is a lot more to the problem than that. The Japanese have plenty of their own relationship problems right now, in different forms than we do. I read somewhere that up to 1/3 of the men over there aren’t even interested in sex. For women the percentage is even higher. This is why there is a growing trend of young men over there marrying robots and cartoon characters.

    • CourtneyfromAlabama

      White people in general, even on websites like this, seem to enjoy following a golden rule that states that they can’t ever criticize Northeast Asians (Chinese, Japanese, and S Koreans). I don’t get it. I can look at those people (NE Asians) and easily see plenty of problems. They are human just like the rest of us.

  • Hey that’s nothing. White people could be all but extinct in a few hundred years. The WSJ wants to help that process along, it should be noted.

    • Jack Burton

      We’ll just do like Latin America and call the lighter-skinned mongrels white.

  • Mason Gull

    Stories proclaiming the demise of Japan and Korea are a very low tier of click bait, and it saddens me to see AmRen publishing such articles. Birthrates aren’t static, especially when we’re looking at a period of around 750 years.

    • evilsandmich

      It did happen to some ancient populations in the western hemisphere (another example may be Egypt where the people there have little to know genetic relation to the Egyptians who built the pyramids). Recalling the logic from their article on Japan (it’s been a few years) was that when the population is x-1 it no longer has the support structure of the original population of x and then x-1 becomes x-2 and so on. At the very least it makes the nation vulnerable to invasion (military or otherwise). I think that it’s an overly pessimistic view but it isn’t like it’s completely ungrounded from reality.

    • CourtneyfromAlabama

      Why are East Asians always off limits to getting criticized according to some people on here?

      • Mason Gull

        There are plenty of valid problems that can be pointed out in Korea. Imminent extinction is not one of them.

  • It sounds like the globalists are setting up the Koreans to accept massive numbers of immigrants from Africa. Resist, Koreans. Believe me, you don’t want Africans in your country. Better to give yourselves over to the North Koreans than accept the diversity agenda.

    • IstvanIN

      They don’t want Hindus, either.

  • better put it on your calendar.

  • Robb

    a source of envy. we’re supposed to be extinct by 2050

    • Jack Burton

      Not extinct, just a minority. We’re already a worldwide minority, and in many areas of White countries non-whites are already the majority, and not a peep from whites.

      • Robb

        white children are already the not-majority in u.s. schools, hence, extinct.

        • Jack Burton

          You have a comprehension problem.

    • Nevsky

      2050/2042 for our glorious transformation into minority status, 2200 for when we’ll be finally gone. Hooray genocide!

  • kjh64

    No, South Korea won’t go extinct. Birth rates are not even. Sometimes a population goes through periods of high and low birthrates depending upon circumstances. Right now, South Korea is heavily populated for the amount of land they have. So lowering the birthrate for awhile is a good thing. They can always raise the birthrates later. Even if they don’t, there will still be a smaller South Korea, unlike White nations, which will be extinct through mass immigration if things don’t change. My guess is that some of the powers that be would like to encourage South Korea and Japan to have the same suicidal immigration policies as the West. That’s not going to happen because Asians look out for themselves much more than Whites.

    • david dorian

      Yes of course. This is so obvious it begs the question why the writer is so ready to ignore common sense and reality.

      REal blinders on these people- Disgusting myopia.

    • Ella

      I don’t believe Whites will go instinct even if we have been overran by immigrants. Only if Whites practice a high rate of miscegenation, then, you could face extinction problems. The quality of life can plummet in these conditions living as poor peasants and uneducated. No one wants to risk these miserable outcomes.

  • stringtheoryrob

    50 million for such a small country is too much. Same for Japan. They’ll be back; leaner and meaner. Good for them.

    • M&S

      “They’ll be back, leaner and meaner. Good for them.”

      With anthropomorphic robots.

      Not Tamiya RC tanks with EOD grapplers. Not killer drone Predators. But _really useful to society_ tools which allow them to do such high time-domain tasks as look after the elderly and probably their children.

      This is why Asimo looks like a child and the Japanese work so avidly on humanoid simulant women.

      We should be so lucky, living in a world where we spend 163 million a copy on an F-35 that will never do us a bit of good until and unless we commit to another foolish war where we conquer nothing and gain no new resources as tributory result.

  • Malgus

    2750?

    Soooooo… they’ve got some time.

    • Adolf Verloc

      Most demographic predictions are of little accuracy over decades, let alone centuries.

    • AndrewInterrupted

      Yeah, the meteor will hit before then.

  • Korean guy

    This article assumes that nothing ever changes in South Korea, including the culture, the law and how the government gets involved (or not involved) to promote a higher birthrate, and it is impossible for everything to stay the exactly same for the next 750 years.

    Nothing to be concerned with 🙂

    • takadi

      judging by your picture now I know why you gooks have a horrible birthrate. Woe be to the she-gook that has to take in your 2 inch penis and stare at that mutated mongoloid face

  • NoMosqueHere

    So, I guess they should import millions of blacks, muslims and puerto ricans, eh?

    • benvad

      Of Course! Why should we be selfish and rob them of the richness of diversity?

  • Magician

    HAHAHAHAHA!

  • Nevsky

    At least a homogenous country with low birthrates can eventually turn things around and still have their country. The same can’t be said for us. Unless we produce 20 kids per couple.

    And it’s funny, I’ve had liberals tell me that if whites had more babies then immigration wouldn’t be a problem. So wait, you guys want the world to be overpopulated now?

    • Ella

      Libtards tell me that it’s supposed to be “our” moral responsibility to pay for the illegals and/or poorer immigrants since “we” Whites reduced the family size to affordability.

    • M.

      Actually, 4 kids per couple would be more than enough.

  • david dorian

    More asinine rhetoric with an agenda they won’t admit to.

    Korea without Koreans won’t be Korean, and neither will any white nation without its ethnic base. So adddress the issue head on.

    This kind of comment from the WSJ shows they prefer stupidity to credibility if they think it will support their agenda.

  • Ella

    Only Northern Asians and Whites understand the concept that breeding less can promote a higher standard and quality of life for your offspring. Do you prefer the 1900 population at 76 million in USA or today’s 320 million overpopulated cultural mess?

    • willbest

      Drive across the country. Its a whole lot of open land. The US Government owns about 1/3rd of all the land in the country and its not doing a damn thing with most of it, and neither is anybody else.

      Now if you live within 50 miles of the coast I suppose I could understand why you think it is overcrowded, but there are places in this country where if you died without anybody knowing where you went the animals will pick your carcass over clean before anybody found you.

      • Ella

        I did, but from San Gabriel (LA area) to Austin, TX it is one mass desert. If you drive North, the desert extends into Idaho and SD. Some regions would not be worth the cost and have a serious lack in water resources.

  • “In that dubious respect, South Korea is on track to outpace its neighbor Japan: according to a widely-circulated report two years ago, Japan will go extinct in about one thousand years.”

    Not really. To open-borders overpopulation fanatics like the Journal, no nation’s population must ever ever decline! Wait until Japan and South Korea start having jobs and housing surpluses. They will remember how to make babies real quick.

  • benvad

    You think your clever and funny but the’s exactly what’s join to happen!

    • benvad

      Your more of a soothsayer than anything else.

  • benvad

    The want to absorb the South and rule over it.

  • They’ve already started importing Africans if I’m not mistaken.

    • AndrewInterrupted

      They are doomed.

  • willbest

    If nothing else within 736 years they will have perfected plastic surgery to the point they will be able to make anything that walks on two legs look Korean

  • willbest

    At some point the population approaches the point where your civilization cannot sustain itself with X number of workers. At which point, there will be strong economic pressures to increase the worker population. This can either be done by importing non Koreans to sustain the civilization which will ultimately result in seceding Korea over to that nation, or Korean fertility will increase.

    • AndrewInterrupted

      No, I take the opposite view. Technology is rapidly replacing the need for any workers. Declining populations should be seen as positives. They key for nations, especially the U.S., is to control the percentages. We could be a 90% European country again if we had legislation that controlled percentages. The plan for western civilization was to be good conservators of the earth. The 3rd world refused to follow. It’s the proverbial tail wagging the dog.

  • LIBERTYSINCURSION

    So they got another 736 years, eh? Something tells me < Oh I don't know, maybe the massive 3rd world invasion and anti-white hatred, violence, media black out and discrimination, coupled with vast amounts of debt followed by the death of the Petro-Dollar, maybe? ) that South Korea probably has about 600 years or longer of existence ahead of it than that of the historic 1st world, American Nation.

  • AndrewInterrupted

    Maybe the multi-culti puppet masters at WSJ are trying to scare the Koreans into accepting Africans? They can have ours?

  • TXCriollo

    700 year predictions seem to never be right

  • willbest

    That future is only possible in homogeneous cultures which I suspect requires 10 million or less based on the relative success of Scandinavia vs other countries that attempt it.

    Its probably something like if the population doesn’t regularly see a decent number of 3rd-5th cousin marriages is SOL in the long term

  • CourtneyfromAlabama

    I think the above poster understands that. The thing is, is that, white people get criticized enough as it is. Meanwhile Asians seem to get treated like “the forbidden fruit” that nobody else can ever poke fun at in Western societies. They are the darlings of the Western media when it comes to economics, history, and culture. Some of us are getting tired of it, so we use this website as a place to speak reality.

  • Paleoconn

    Thread winner.

  • CourtneyfromAlabama

    In my above comment I stressed that I was speaking specifically about culture, economics and history. East Asians are the favorite topic of anti white economists and revisionist historians (who had the best ancient civilization ? etc….). In regards to culture this applies too. The average white person I run into seems to think East Asians are perfect in every way. Blacks and gays at least get criticized during discussions from time to time especially in the South. It happens more than you would guess.

  • CourtneyfromAlabama

    Your response here has nothing to do with my original point. The above poster was making it sound as if East Asians have it together compared to whites. So in response I showed him/her how they were wrong. We are worse off than them in some ways but not others.

  • CourtneyfromAlabama

    You seem to be answering all of my comments on here as if I was originally talking to you each time. There is only one instance above where I was talking to you.