Net Migration in 2025 Was Half What the Census Bureau Had Estimated

In a previous posting we focused on the slowdown in the growth in the foreign foreign-born population in the new American Community Survey (ACS) from 2024 to 2025, and compared the ACS to what other Census Bureau surveys showed. This post takes the analysis one step further and calculates Net International Migration (NIM), the difference between the number coming versus leaving the U.S., based on the new data. The just released ACS shows net migration was only roughly half what the Census had estimated for 2025. It seems almost certain the Census Bureau will have to revise downward significantly its prior estimate of NIM for 2025 when its next series of population estimates are released later this year or early next year.

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