For a Vision of Britain’s Future, Look to the Schools
Charlie Cole, Pimlico Journal, July 14, 2026
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The white British share of the population in England and Wales has declined from 87.5% in 2001 to 80.5% in 2011 and 74.4% in 2021. That figure will have declined further since the 2021 census, particularly given the unprecedented level of immigration between 2021 and 2024 (the ‘Boriswave’). We won’t get the full picture until the next census in 2031, and what we see then will depend on how many of the Boriswave end up settling.
Several population projections based on census data show that the white British are set to become a minority sometime in the 2050s or 2060s. The census is, however, merely a snapshot in time and is not a leading indicator for what the future of the country might look like. This is because the census captures a lot of older people, whose numbers have less, if any, bearing on the future demographic make-up of the country. This point was echoed by demographer Paul Morland in an interview with Steven Edginton; the demographics of younger cohorts matter more, and they are on track to fall below the 50% threshold much sooner. The two leading indicators for demographic change are births and school entries. It can be argued that neither are as accurate or encompassing as the decadal census, which is considered by statisticians, demographers and researchers to be the gold standard. Nonetheless, the trends are clear and all moving in the same direction.
I have explored births previously in Pimlico Journal, covering the data between 2007 and 2023 here, and providing an update on 2024’s revised fertility rates here. Recently released ONS data for 2025 shows that 53.1% of births in England and Wales were white British, a slight decrease from 53.7% in 2024, down from 58.9% in 2021 and 66.3% in 2010. Birth statistics have some limitations; there is no way to account for internal migration (e.g., someone born in Scotland who moves to England or vice versa), those born here who emigrate, or those born in foreign countries who immigrate to the UK, often the dependants of migrants on work visas, or those arriving via family reunification or immediate settlement visas.
School statistics are another avenue that gives us a look into what the future of the country might look like even without large amounts of future immigration, assuming no major reversal of trends in the birth rate. Crucially, school statistics allow us to capture younger cohorts who have immigrated to the UK with their parents and who would therefore not be captured in birth statistics. The ethnicity of pupils is collected and published yearly as part of the annual school census. From what I can find, the ethnicity of pupils has been recorded in England since 1996, in Wales since 2004, in Scotland since 2003 and in Northern Ireland since 2006. If any earlier data is available, I have not been able to find it, or it does not exist on any record that is digitally accessible. With this information, we can map the change over time and create a time series.
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Schools in England
The Department for Education (DfE) publishes schools, pupils and their characteristics releases once a year. This allows you to create a table showing the ethnicity of pupils from the 2015/16 to 2025/26 academic year, which will be referenced as January 2016 and January 2026 going forward, as the school census takes place in January.
White British pupils comprised 69.3% of enrolment in January 2016, falling to 59.7% in January 2026. This figure is for total pupil enrolment (all sectors) though you can break it down into state-funded primary or state-funded secondary if you wish.
The releases page has the earliest release going back to January 2010 (2009/10), which showed white British pupils comprised 73.8% of primary school enrolment and 77.3% of secondary school enrolment. However, starting from 2010 doesn’t tell the full story. The ethnicity of pupils has been recorded as part of the school census since 1996 and The National Archives has releases in digital format that are readable from 1998 onwards. The DfE don’t link any of these archived releases, which makes them harder to track down as the National Archives is poorly indexed and harder to search. When contacted, even the Schools and Pupils Statistics Team were unaware that releases including ethnicity existed before 2002.
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White British pupils comprised 79.5% of enrolment in state-funded primary schools in 2003, decreasing to 70.8% of enrolment in 2013 and 62.6% of enrolment in 2023. As of January 2026, they have declined further to 59.8% of enrolment. Ethnic minority pupils comprised 17.3% of enrolment in state-funded primary schools in 2003, increasing to 28.5% of enrolment in 2013 and 36.1% of enrolment in 2023. As of January 2026, they have increased further to 38.9% of enrolment. Pupils whose ethnicity isn’t stated aren’t shown to improve chart readability. They comprised 3.2% of enrolment in 2003, 0.7% of enrolment in 2013 and have increased slightly to 1.3% of enrolment in January 2026.
White British pupils comprised 80.3% of enrolment in state-funded secondary schools in 2003, decreasing to 74.7% of enrolment in 2013 and 62.6% of enrolment in 2023. As of January 2026, they have fallen further to 59.4% of enrolment. Ethnic minority pupils comprised 14.8% of enrolment in state-funded secondary schools in 2003, increasing to 24.2% of enrolment in 2013 and 35.4% of enrolment in 2023. As of January 2026, they have increased further to 38.7% of enrolment. Again, pupils whose ethnicity isn’t stated aren’t shown. They comprised 4.9% of enrolment in 2003, 1.1% of enrolment in 2013 and have increased slightly to 1.9% of enrolment in January 2026.
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The constituency with the highest white British percentage is North Northumberland, where 92.5% of school pupils are white British. The constituency with the lowest white British percentage is East Ham, where 2.3% of school pupils are white British.
The constituency with the highest ethnic minority percentage is East Ham, where 97.1% of school pupils are from an ethnic minority background. The constituency with the lowest ethnic minority percentage is Torridge and Tavistock, where 6.1% of pupils are from an ethnic minority background.
There are 142 constituencies in England where white British pupils made up less than 50% of enrolment, up from 137 the year prior. Percentages have been rounded to 1 decimal place to improve map readability.
Schools in Wales
The Welsh Government publishes annual school census results on their website. The releases cover January 2014 to January 2025, though the January 2014 release contains data from January 2010 onwards. An archive release was found on the StatsWales website covering January 2004 (2003/04) and January 2005 (2004/05), though no census results could be found after these dates to cover the period prior to January 2010. The StatsWales website has since been migrated, and the two older releases are no longer accessible. The Welsh Government school statistics team were contacted to ask if they could produce a single release covering the ethnic background of pupils from 2004 to 2025, covering the number of pupils and percentage of enrolment by ethnic group, which they kindly did. This ad hoc release (Pupils aged 5 or over by ethnic background, 2004 to 2025) can be viewed here.
White British pupils comprised 92% of enrolment in 2004, declining moderately to 90.5% of enrolment in 2014 and 84.1% of enrolment in 2025. The ethnic minority percentage of pupil enrolment has increased from 5.1% in 2004 to 8.9% of enrolment in 2014 and 15.3% of enrolment in 2025. Pupils whose ethnicity isn’t stated aren’t shown. They comprised 3% of enrolment in 2004, 0.6% of enrolment in 2014 and 0.7% of enrolment in 2025.
Schools in Scotland
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White UK pupils comprised 91.3% of enrolment in 2003, decreasing modestly to 89.7% of enrolment in 2010. The ethnic minority percentage of pupils increased from 4.4% of enrolment in 2003 to 7.8% of enrolment in 2010. Pupils whose ethnicity isn’t stated aren’t shown. They comprised 4.3% of enrolment in 2003 and 2.5% of enrolment in 2010.
White Scottish pupils comprised 87.6% of enrolment in 2011, decreasing to 78% of enrolment in 2019. The ethnic minority percentage of pupils increased from 10.6% of enrolment in 2011 to 20% of enrolment in 2019. Pupils whose ethnicity isn’t stated aren’t shown. They comprised 1.8% of enrolment in 2011 and 2% of enrolment in 2019.
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From 2020, Scotland changed ethnicity classifications again, adding both ‘White Scottish’ and ‘White Other British’ categories, which I have combined into ‘White Scottish & British’ for the purpose of these charts. White Scottish & British pupils comprised 83.3% of enrolment in 2020, decreasing to 77.5% of enrolment in 2025. The ethnic minority percentage increased from 14.6% of enrolment in 2020 to 19.9% of enrolment in 2025. Pupils whose ethnicity isn’t stated aren’t shown. They comprised 2.1% of enrolment in 2020 and 2.6% of enrolment in 2025.
Schools in Northern Ireland
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White pupils comprised 98.3% of enrolment in 2006, declining modestly to 92% of enrolment in 2026. Ethnic minority pupils comprised 1.7% of enrolment in 2006, increasing modestly to 8% of enrolment by 2026.
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Conclusions
It is all too easy to dismiss population projections that reach decades into the future, and to argue over methodological differences when it comes to assumed levels of net migration and fertility rates. Often, this dynamic reduces conversations surrounding our demographic situation to a futile argument over the precise year in which white Brits will become a minority in our own country. Of course, it does not much matter whether this will occur in 2053, 2061, 2066, or any other year. It will either happen, or it will not.
The more damaging consequence of discussion in these terms is the reinforcement of the idea that demographic replacement is a threat looming in the future, rather than a reality of the present. Not only does that lessen the urgency that many feel, it also shapes the responses. If we understand replacement as something that may occur in the future as a result of immigration, our attempts to prevent it will naturally be centred around changes to immigration policy. But what these figures show is that the disaster has already occurred. Even if we were to put a complete halt to all immigration tomorrow, white Brits will be reduced to at most ~55% of the population as older generations pass away and those currently in their youth replace them. At that level, only a very marginal difference in fertility rates by ethnicity will ensure our minoritisation.
If we wish to ensure that Britain continues to exist in the future, and that the British people are capable of self-determination within a unified political community to which they feel any kind of connection, these figures show beyond any reasonable doubt that we must do more than simply control who is allowed into our country. To galvanise support on that basis, the public must be given an accurate impression of the current situation. The census, helpful as it is, must be seen as a lagging indicator — and those of us who wish to highlight the extent and pace of demographic change in a way which produces the necessary and commensurate political response must focus on metrics which paint a more accurate picture of where we are now.
