The Democrats’ Hispanic Voter Problem Deepens

Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for several reasons: (1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition; and (3) they believe that any Hispanic flirtation with the GOP is merely temporary—they will “come back home” to the Democrats.

On the second point, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.

But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population {snip}

It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That could—or should—provoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking.

It’s getting late enough in the current cycle to venture an assessment of whether the rightward drift of Hispanics is continuing. Short answer: it is. Let’s take a look at some of the data.

1. For context, it’s useful to review what happened in the 2020 election. In that election, Hispanics, after four years of Trump, gave him substantially more support than they did in 2016. According to Catalist, in 2020 Latinos had an amazingly large 16-point margin shift toward Trump. Among Latinos, Cubans did have the largest shifts toward Trump (26 points), but those of Mexican origin also had a 12-point shift and even Puerto Ricans moved toward Trump by 18 points.

2. Latino shifts toward Trump were widely dispersed geographically. Hispanic shifts toward Trump were not confined to Florida (28 points) and Texas (18 points) but also included states like Wisconsin (20 points), Nevada (18 points), Pennsylvania (12 points), Arizona (10 points), and Georgia (8 points).

3. These shifts were also heavily concentrated among working-class (noncollege) Hispanics, which is the overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters. {snips}

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5. The latest data indicate that the Democratic margin among Hispanics is continuing to fall this cycle. {snip}

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8. A very recent bipartisan national poll of Latinos, conducted for NBC News/Telemundo, finds Harris ahead of Trump by 14 points. {snip}

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12. Interestingly, while Trump is preferred over Harris among all Hispanic voters on dealing with inflation and the cost of living and the economy generally, his biggest lead over Harris (13 points) is actually on “securing the border and controlling immigration”(!)

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