Poll: Donald Trump Surges to 32% Support

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN, September 10, 2015

Donald Trump has become the first Republican presidential candidate to top 30% support in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, which finds the businessman pulling well away from the rest of the GOP field.

Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, and has nearly tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in June. The new poll finds former neurosurgeon Ben Carson rising 10 points to land in second place with 19%. Together, these two non-politicians now hold the support of a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and separately, both are significantly ahead of all other competitors.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush stands in third place with 9%, down 4 points since August, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds fourth place with 7%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker follow at 5%, with all other candidates at 3% or less, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who notched the only other statistically significant shift in the poll by falling 5 points since August.

Trump’s gains come most notably among two groups that had proven challenging for him in the early stages of his campaign–women and those with college degrees. While he gained just 4 points among men in the last month (from 27% in August to 31% now), he’s up 13 points among women, rising from 20% in August to 33% now. Trump has also boosted his share of the vote among college graduates, increasing his support among those with degrees from 16% in August to 28% now. Among those without degrees, he stands at 33%, just slightly higher than the 28% support he had in August.

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Still, most Republican voters (51%) think Trump is most likely to emerge as the GOP winner, well ahead of the 19% who think Bush will top the party ticket and 11% who think Carson will. {snip}

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Trump’s growth in the field has also come alongside an increase in attention to the issue of illegal immigration. A majority of Republicans now call the issue extremely important to their vote for president, 51% now call it extremely important, up from 39% in a June CNN/ORC poll. {snip}

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