General Election 2015: Look Who’s Not Voting Tory

Daniel Hannan, Telegraph (London), May 7, 2014

The gravest long-term threat to the Conservative Party is not the uneven constituency sizes, nor the split on the Centre-Right, nor yet the party’s weakness in Scotland and parts of northern England. Dwarfing these challenges is the Tories’ failure to win any meaningful measure of support from the fastest-growing section of the population, namely people from ethnic minorities.

Britain is undergoing unprecedented demographic change. In 1950, white people were close to 100 per cent of the population; in 2050, they will be 65 per cent. And not being white is the single greatest predictor of not voting Conservative.

Look at how people from different backgrounds voted at the last election. Labour enjoyed colossal leads among every ethnic minority community. Even Indians, who are significantly less anti-Tory than other non-white groups, were four times as likely to vote for Gordon Brown as for David Cameron.

A new study by the think tank Policy Exchange reveals the gravity of my party’s predicament. It explodes the notion that there is a simple policy solution, such as changes in stop-and-search rules or immigration amnesties.

Different ethnic minorities are, as you would expect, heterogeneous. There are huge differences in levels of educational attainment, home ownership, private sector employment and virtually every other economic indicator. Bangladeshis and Jamaicans, Sikhs and Nigerians seem to have only one major political trait in common: they don’t like voting Tory.

People of Pakistani origin are more likely to own their homes than white people, but this doesn’t make them any likelier to vote for the homeowners’ party. East African Asians are more likely to be business owners than white people, but this doesn’t make them any likelier to vote for the entrepreneurs’ party. People from black Caribbean backgrounds are more likely to attend church than white people (57 per cent as against 10 per cent), but this doesn’t make them any likelier to vote for the party that, at least sometimes, does God.

For as long as I can remember, Conservative politicians have had only one message for immigrant and ethnic minority voters: namely, “your values are our values”. By any measure, that appeal is failing. One reason is that it isn’t always true. Plenty of immigrants arrive with fully developed political opinions, often retaining links to Left-of-Centre parties in their countries of origin.

While you can certainly argue that crossing half the world to make a new life implies a decent dose of initiative, not all immigration is carried out in this fashion. Having a points-based system, where each successful applicant has had to beat others to citizenship, might attract enterprising people and, indeed, make them feel patriotic from the beginning. But much of our post-war immigration was a statist project: government officials went to Commonwealth countries, recruited workers en bloc, paid their passage and put them to work in the public sector. It would be odd if that process had not produced a disproportionate number of Labour voters.

The phenomenon is not unique to the United Kingdom. In every Western country–with one important exception–immigrant and ethnic minority voters are likelier than the general population to vote for Left-of-Centre parties. The exception is Canada where, at the last general election, newcomers were likelier to vote Conservative than native-born Canadians.

That result was largely the achievement of one man, Jason Kenney, now the immigration minister and a strong contender to be Stephen Harper’s eventual successor as party leader. He grasped early on that first impressions matter. When people arrive in a new country, they are often badly off, and likely to be living in areas represented by the Left-of-Centre party. Their first political contact will probably be with their local councillor who, in between explaining how schools, taxes and housing policy work, will drop in some politics: “I don’t know how much you know about our party system here but, basically, we’re the nice ones. The other lot didn’t want you here in the first place.”

The vital thing, Kenney realised, was for Conservatives to define themselves in the eyes of new arrivals rather than being defined by their opponents. That meant being where settlers were, being there early, and being there often.

Endlessly repeating, like some shamanistic incantation, that you “share the values” of this or that community doesn’t work when people begin with the assumption that your values involve greed, selfishness or racism. Nor does turning up to a religious festival once a year serve to counter what the other side says about you. Outside Canada, Right-of-Centre parties have failed to understand the magnitude of the problem.

US conservatism had its greatest triumph in 1984, with the landslide re-election of Ronald Reagan. If that election were repeated today, with the Republicans taking the same shares of the vote among black, white and Hispanic voters in their present proportions, Walter Mondale would take the White House. Reagan used to say that Latinos were Republicans who didn’t know it yet. His hope was that, as immigrants moved up the social scale, their voting habits would shift accordingly. It isn’t happening. And it isn’t happening because, unlike Kenney’s Conservatives, the Republicans haven’t invested anything like enough effort in, say, running Spanish-speaking advice centres. At the last presidential election, nine out of every 10 advertisements on Spanish-language media were for the Democrats.

Britain’s Tories have an analogous problem. Most Conservative associations have a sprinkling of black and Asian members, and almost all MPs make a point of visiting their local mosques and temples, but this doesn’t begin to address the scale of the challenge. When immigrants are automatically visited by Conservatives on arrival; when Asian broadcast news networks hear more from the Tories than from Labour; when every association copies Andrew Rosindell’s Romford, and runs events aimed specifically at Commonwealth immigrants, then, perhaps, the balance will begin to tilt.

How to get to that stage? Open primaries would help. In the 1980s, conscious of their electoral weakness among ethnic minorities, and desperate for the support of anyone with a black or brown face, the party sometimes promoted people who were even more eccentric than the average politician. Not any more. To pluck an example at random, the leader of the Conservative MEPs is Syed Kamall, the son of a bus driver from Guyana, a practising Muslim and a tax-cutting Eurosceptic who has fought his way to the leadership without the slightest help from the party hierarchy. There will be many more Syeds–that is, natural free marketeers–who have not joined the Tories for the most basic reason of all: no one has asked.

Let me end on a more hopeful note. At present, the Eurosceptic argument is being made disproportionately, and disastrously, in terms of immigration. If one side talks trade and investment while the other talks Romanians and Bulgarians, the first side will win. Which is why, as the referendum gets closer, I suspect that the rhetoric will switch from immigration, which has limited appeal to non-white Britons, to our global role. And that–I say this with certainty, having been making speeches about it for 20 years–is a message that elicits a warm response from people with family links in Commonwealth countries. An anti-EU campaign in which people from ethnic minorities were disproportionately active would have a benign impact on race relations. It might also, incidentally, give the Conservatives the opening they need.

Daniel Hannan is Conservative MEP for South East England

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  • Pro_Whitey

    So our alternative are to kiss their behinds and be flooded with them or to resist and be flooded with them. Sounds like a recipe for the Tories and the GOP not to have any voters.

    • Jacobite2

      The non-whites have their party. Everybody knows Labor represents them. Gee, I wonder which ‘demographic’ remains in play here? Well, there aren’t any left, as whites are not a race, an ethnicity, or even an interest group. They are evil and deserve hell-on-earth in the form of supporting alien families and extended families in the style to which whites used to be accustomed, by working and paying taxes to these alien peoples. At least in England there are some minor parties that are strongly hinting that they might possibly consider whites’ well-being if elected. Of course, no one can openly state such a purpose, as that would be racist. As long as whites in England (as in the US) are considered second-class citizens in the pursuit of their interests, the game is rigged. The fact is that ethnic cleansing is the ultimate inexorable solution to Balkanization — as we observe every day in the Balkans. The end-game is ethnic cleansing; the only question is, which ethnicity will remain when it’s completed? As long as whites (and no other ethnic group doubts this for a nano-second — you can ask them) refuse to see the writing on the wall, they are doomed. And deserve to be.

  • IstvanIN

    Why doesn’t a “conservative” MP state the obvious: the British are the indigenous people of the UK and they are being driven from their tiny homeland by massive, unwanted, unassimilable immigrants. Not only that but they are facing environmental ruin by overcrowding the island.

    • Ace

      The left will become ever more desperate to shut down free speech. Sweden leads the pack these days. Speech MUST be controlled and NO talk of being inundated or driven from the homeland can be tolerated. Centuries of cultural and political development must and will be sacrificed on the altar of immigration abstractions and lies. “Diversity” and “multiculturalism” and “enrichment” all equal “attack” at some point in the future. Forget the war on drugs. We need a war on stupidity.

  • WR_the_realist

    The Tories are the UK’s version of America’s Republicans. Just as useless, just as spineless, and just as suicidal. At least in Great Britain there are a couple of viable parties that are good alternatives and can win elections. We have no alternative party in the U.S. that’s any good and can get a candidate elected to something higher than dog catcher.,

  • “Look who’s not voting Tory”

    If British opinion polls a year out are any predictable reliable indicator, the answer to that question is that nobody is voting Tory. If UKIP can parlay MEP success this year into having enough credibility to overcome the first past the post problem in British parliamentary elections, and quit tripping over its own legs, then it might literally be nobody that votes Tory.

    “Daniel Hannan”

    He’s a big favorite in the American lamestream conservative speaker circuit.

    “US conservatism had its greatest triumph in 1984, with the landslide re-election of Ronald Reagan. If that election were repeated today, with the Republicans taking the same shares of the vote among black, white and Hispanic voters in their present proportions, Walter Mondale would take the White House.”

    That has proven to be false. Even if you want to use the Constitutionally meaningless national popular vote, it’s not true. But the big reason why that turns out not be true is that Reagan did much better among white voters in what are now crucial swing states outside the South and outside of reliably red states than any Republican nominee after him ever did.

    “The exception is Canada where, at the last general election, newcomers were likelier to vote Conservative than native-born Canadians.”

    Isolated incident and isolated circumstance.

  • Limited government and conservatism are white values. As whites shrink in numbers and proportions, the remaining whites are going to suffer a terrible fate at the hands of the leftists. At this point there’s probably no way to reverse course for Britain or the US. Meanwhile, idiot Sean Hannity brings on Dr. Ben Carson again today, as Republicans are hell bent to show they’re not waycissss by running the black guy for president in 2016. Screw Hannity and screw the Republicans.

    • WR_the_realist

      Well Ben Carson is better than 80% of the white Republicans, so I wouldn’t knock him too hard. On immigration I’d label him as better than Jeb Bush, worse than Tom Tancredo. He opposes illegal immigration but does favor a guest worker program. There’s not a word about cutting legal immigration, but then, hardly any politician will do that. He does oppose affirmative action.

      Ben Carson would certainly be better than Obama, but that’s not a high bar to reach.

      • IstvanIN

        I am sick of the Adelson Republicans pandering, or slobbering, over any black who can read and write.

        • WR_the_realist

          Ben Carson is a retired neurosurgeon. I’d say that’s a couple of steps up from merely being able to read and write.

          Really, not all blacks are stupid.

          • So CAL Snowman

            So what if there is an occasional Ben Carson. Did he invent the field of neurosurgery? Did he invent the tools or processes necessary for neurosurgery? No he did not. He’s just another black riding Whitey’s coat tails. Oh look at this one, he’s a surgeon! Wow put a big blue ribbon on him and run him out for the world to see. It’s beyond pathetic that the Republicans keep dropping their panties for any black that can communicate without resorting to ebonics and putting his hand down his pants.

          • WR_the_realist

            Well, most of us are just white people riding other white people’s tails. Very few of us here did anything equivalent to inventing the procedures and tools for neurosurgery.

          • IstvanIN

            But our people, not theirs, invented the modern world. In fact Africans couldn’t invent the dark ages, ancient China or any other reasonably advanced civilization.

          • WR_the_realist

            It is true that white people invented most of what constitutes the modern world, with most of the remaining contributions coming from Asians. That’s not a reason to dismiss Ben Carson when his successful career came about through his own hard efforts.

          • IstvanIN

            Yes, he is a very bright and accomplished man. And yes, a small percentage of American blacks belong to the talented tenth. The issue is the pandering. If 25 or 30 percent of blacks were Republicans I could understand wanting to keep them happy, but since only 2% are Republicans shouldn’t they spend more time keeping me happy?

          • Jacobite2

            White people don’t count. It doesn’t matter how many white votes they get — it’s no good unless they get the non-white vote, as these are the first-class citizens. You don’t catch anybody hiring or promoting in any way that might favor whites do you? No, the only peoples legally entitled to race-based discrimination are non-whites.

          • Jacobite2

            Libertarians are weirdos. Humans are social animals. We live in ‘societies’. Societies are groups of individuals sharing a common origin. For you public-school grads, that means all are of the same race, ethnicity, or nation. Sorry, diversity among social animals is a fantasy.

          • Jacobite2

            The smart ones are just more dangerous enemies.

      • Mason Gull

        It’s not that Ben Carson’s ideas are bad, it’s just that they’re not particularly original and yet the man gets top billing at every Republican event because he’s black. They’re futilely trying to get blacks to vote for them by saying “Hey look, black people! We have a black guy in our party too!” It’s really transparent and pathetic.

        • WR_the_realist

          I don’t care if a politician’s ideas are original. I just want them to be good. Let the artists, musicians, authors, and mathematicians worry about “originality”.

          Now sure, if Ben Carson runs, most blacks will still vote Democrat. He might take a couple of percentage points of the black vote away from the Democrats, that’s it. And yeah, desperate Republican hacks promote him in a futile attempt to get the diversity vote. That’s not Ben Carson’s fault.

          Ben Carson is far from my ideal politician but he’s probably better than any of the last three presidents we’ve had.

          • Mason Gull

            When I say his ideas aren’t original, I mean that there are many other politicians saying the same thing but they don’t get any attention because they aren’t black. Yeah, that’s not Ben Carson’s fault, but I can’t imagine that he doesn’t know what’s going on.

            I don’t dislike Ben Carson as a person, but the hype surrounding him is contrived and makes conservatives look desperate.

        • Sick of it

          Again the question arises – What are his true beliefs and true goals? Lies flow from the mouths of these people like water.

      • Sick of it

        BUT do you really know the guy? It’s Herman Cain all over again. Barack Obama all over again. I don’t trust ANYONE these jokers plug.

        • IstvanIN

          Herman Cain, the 9/9/9 pizza guy!

        • shawnmer

          Cain got a bad rap, IMO. When you don’t master an Obama-esque masking of your black accent, AND you aren’t saying the right things politically, all that prohibition against making light of Ebonics-like language is out the window.

          • Sick of it

            Again, consider who had pushed Herman Cain. That was a top-down movement, much like this Ben Carson fellow appearing out of the woodwork, only to be pushed by the same people.

      • Jacobite2

        Doesn’t matter. Doesn’t matter. Blood is thicker than water. Stick with your own people. When the non-whites start losing the race war — I mean losing the big shooting race war, don’t expect Ben Carson to stand with us on the barricades. Not gonna happen. And shouldn’t happen.

        • WR_the_realist

          If you think Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi are better than Ben Carson just because they’re white I’m afraid we’ll just have to disagree.

          • Jacobite2

            Not better; not even close to better.
            Infinitely worse, in fact.
            I would expect a member of any race to back his own people when it gets down to that (and it will definitely do so).
            The fact that they are deliberately attacking their own people is one thing that makes white Leftists so detestable.

      • mobilebay

        Jeff Sessions would be better than both. Add Kris Kobach and Tom Tancredo that you mentioned and a few others who understand what mass immigration is doing to this country, we might have a chance. As it stands now, with all Democrats and many Republicans willing to sell their souls for cheap labor and votes, we’re doomed.

        • WR_the_realist

          On immigration Jeff Sessions would be better than 95% of the Republicans. But I don’t think he has any plans to run for the presidency, and I see no groundswell of support urging him to do so.

          • mobilebay

            I know Sessions hasn’t mentioned any plans to run. I’m just dreaming, but we’ve got to have someone who will obey the immigration laws that are on the books. We don’t need reform, just enforcement.

    • shawnmer

      What are your thoughts on Carson, on merit?

      Nothing against the guy, but we don’t declare even the most distinguished white physicians as intrinsically qualified for President, or any elected office, simply because they’re brilliant at their profession.

      I have known some decidedly left wing doctors. They might have been the most accomplished professional in their field but I want them anywhere near the gears of govt.

      • Commenter Mason Gull, above, expresses my view. I’ll add that Carson is being coached on what to say. He’s not very articulate or a dynamic speaker, at least not with Hannity. Plus, as others have noted, he’s not going to win the black vote or brown vote.

    • redfeathers

      The idiot is also a big fan of Hannan. They’re all sell-outs.

  • RealisticGuy

    The simple fact of the matter is that ethnic minorities, in any Western country, have no allegiance to host population, and are simply there to take. Take money, and eventually take over.

    Is it any wonder they consistently vote for the left?

    • Einsatzgrenadier

      All third world “immigrants” are vicious, brutal parasites. They will keep taking and won’t stop until every western country is reduced to a heap of third world rubble.

  • FR27

    I would add that Cubans have historically tended to vote Republican. They also tend to be white. Is it a coincidence that the whitest Hispanic immigrant group is one of the few (or only) immigrant group that tends to vote Republican? Perhaps race is the best predictor.

    In any event, it seems the Tories are being the UK’s stupid party in denying the reality of racial/ethnic block voting.

    • IstvanIN

      Those are the over 50 year old Cubans. Younger Cubans are more likely to be Democrats, pan-Hispanic and as anti-American as any other “Latin”.

      • Jacobite2

        They aren’t anti-American; they’re pro-themselves. What else would you expect? The point is that dominance is a perfect zero-sum game — one group wins everything; every other group loses it all. That’s why you want to win.

    • Jacobite2

      They don’t deny it. They just recognize that whites are not allowed to vote based on their race — although everybody else is, and does.

  • dd121

    And start polishing the brass knobs on your casket.

  • Peter Connor

    Unless the Conservatives put a halt to immigration, they are toast–but all these Oxbridge graduates seem too dumb to see it.

    • Sick of it

      They’ve just plain been bought off. They aren’t that dim.

  • shawnmer

    “US conservatism had its greatest triumph in 1984, with the landslide re-election of Ronald Reagan.”

    I don’t know that this is true just YET. Romney won the same Republican share of the white vote won by Bush Sr. in ’88, 59%. This translated to a 53% popular vote. Reagan, last I read, won, 65% of whites in ’84, or a 59% popular vote.

    But this is irrelevant. The point is, as the exiled-from-polite-company former editor of Nationa Review pointed out, it doesn’t matter where exactly we are in this trend, but that the TREND IS NOT OUR FRIEND! Even if Republicans kept the emerging unfriendly demographics at bay for another election cycle, or two, or even three, eventually the fact that we are continuing to let in more and more of groups that were unfriendly to them would make the numbers insurmountable!
    When this math will sink in is anyones guess.

    • Ace

      >> the exiled-from-polite-company former editor of National Review <<

      That's funny.

      Whites seem just brain dead. Everywhere. You'd think that Europeans, with long histories of being invaded, would have more of a lizard brain memory of the difference between locals and foreigners. Perhaps it's the legality of the inflow that befuddles whites. Historically, culturally, socially there's just no precedent for inviting in alien colonists. Elizabeth I heard there was a black in London and had him deported. Elizabeth 2.0 sits there in her default tra la la/"isn't it grand" mode while the black and Muslim tidal wave continues. End result? Just simply tragedy, waste, surrender, weakness, lies, destruction, death. But whites will go down with a death grip on the voting lever marked "Tory" or "Labour." Guaranteed.

  • Sick of it

    Looks like Mr. Hannan is finally showing his true colors. Is there a conservative man left in Britain?

  • Romulus

    True scum!
    Only a traitor worthy of the tower or the gallows would run his own people into the ground while pandering to foreign colonizers.

  • Bobbala

    The Bible predicts that the miry clay will mix with the iron, not the rice, not the beans.

  • Zimriel

    It’s just human nature. Non-whites are not going to vote for the Tories if they act like “beta males”. Who (except Shi’ite Muslims I guess) wants to play for a losing team?

    The UK Independence Party and even the English Defence League have got Jews and Sikhs on board simply by saying this: Uncivilised blacks, and Muslims, are bad for you Jews and Sikhs. We stand for English culture. Jews and Sikhs are not going to get a Jewish or Sikh culture in the English homeland, except at the most local level possible – which ghetto you may, or may not, want to stay in. Either way, we have no problem with the non-English as long as you – first – don’t bother us and – second – don’t try to change us.

    Now, the UKIP and the EDL are not *racial* nationalists. We can all have a lively discussion here about whether they should be, or whether the overtly British *National* Party would be better. [Disclosure: I personally prefer the EDL.] None of this is my point. My point is that, whatever the UKIP and EDL stand for, they do stand for an English-*ness* for which the Tories do not.

  • Mahound

    It seems to me like Britain needs two parties, one Socialist and one Communist. This will please minorities, and that is all that matters.

  • Emblematical

    What delusional rubbish. They don’t vote for the Tory Party because they see it as intrinsically White.
    Non-Whites are united by one thing: anti-White-ism.

  • Ace

    Very nice but that just DOESN’T seem to translate into outrage over what is being done to destroy just what you see depicted. Farage has to purge any of his boys who say anything the least bit naughty. Gracious. Not a smidgin of truth! Anything but that!

    • IstvanIN

      My point was that he should be going after the REAL British for his votes, the people who look like the people in the video, not the interlopers.

  • Yes, so what exactly is the “Conservative” Party ‘conserving’?

    They are conserving nothing other than the liberal programme handed to them some 30 years ago – and of course, conserving their own selfish necks as a “party”.

    That is all they care about, and all they have ever cared about.

    Like in America, what they should have been doing is scooping up the white vote – but they are choosing to pander to the new demographics instead.

    I wouldn’t expect anything else from these people.