In a First, Black Voter Turnout Rate Passes Whites

Hope Yen, AP, April 29, 2013

America’s blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time, reflecting a deeply polarized presidential election in which blacks strongly supported Barack Obama while many whites stayed home.

Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press.

Census data and exit polling show that whites and blacks will remain the two largest racial groups of eligible voters for the next decade. Last year’s heavy black turnout came despite concerns about the effect of new voter-identification laws on minority voting, outweighed by the desire to re-elect the first black president.

William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, analyzed the 2012 elections for the AP using census data on eligible voters and turnout, along with November’s exit polling. He estimated total votes for Obama and Romney under a scenario where 2012 turnout rates for all racial groups matched those in 2004. Overall, 2012 voter turnout was roughly 58 percent, down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.

The analysis also used population projections to estimate the shares of eligible voters by race group through 2030. The numbers are supplemented with material from the Pew Research Center and George Mason University associate professor Michael McDonald, a leader in the field of voter turnout who separately reviewed aggregate turnout levels across states, as well as AP interviews with the Census Bureau and other experts. The bureau is scheduled to release data on voter turnout in May.

{snip}

But the numbers also offer a cautionary note to both Democrats and Republicans after Obama won in November with a historically low percentage of white supporters. While Latinos are now the biggest driver of U.S. population growth, they still trail whites and blacks in turnout and electoral share, because many of the Hispanics in the country are children or noncitizens.

{snip}

The 2012 data suggest Romney was a particularly weak GOP candidate, unable to motivate white voters let alone attract significant black or Latino support. {snip}

Romney would have erased Obama’s nearly 5 million-vote victory margin and narrowly won the popular vote if voters had turned out as they did in 2004, according to Frey’s analysis. Then, white turnout was slightly higher and black voting lower.

More significantly, the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida and Colorado would have tipped in favor of Romney, handing him the presidency if the outcome of other states remained the same.

{snip}

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  • The__Bobster

    After accounting for the widespread Bantu voter fraud, we most likely still had a greater participation rate. However, when the Republicans continuously put up RINOs, we don’t have much of a motivation to vote.

    http://www.vdare.com/posts/numbskulls

    AP Numbskull Confirms GOP’s 2012 Problem Was Low White Support—Advocates Amnesty Anyway
    By Peter Brimelow on April 28, 2013 at 3:25pm

    The headline is the usual Lets’-Scare-Whitey stuff: In a first, black voter turnout rate passes whites, by Hope Yen, AP April 28 2013

    But the story contains useful confirmation of VDARE.com’s repeated contention the the GOP’s problem is not minority outreach, but a failure to moblize its own white base:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time, reflecting a deeply polarized presidential election in which blacks strongly supported Barack Obama while many whites stayed home.

    Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press….

    • While blacks make up 12 percent of the share of eligible voters, they represented 13 percent of total 2012 votes cast, …..

      If just one of ten votes twice, the result is in a 10% increase in their voter turn out. If one of 50, it’s 2%.

    • Room101

      I wasted a 1/16 tank of gas to go out of my way to cast a vote for Romney on Election Day.
      Did’nt feel good @ all.

      It was slightly less nauseous/nauseating than contemplating voting for McCain on a ballot.

      Eff the GOP.

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      • Funruffian

        McShame is no longer relevant. His era is long over.

      • evilsandmich

        At one of his rallies he had a long video intro from Rubio; even in that crowd of adherents interest waned.

    • dogbone

      Here are the top 60 black names who voted in the recent. Names like Koolaidria and Watermelondra.

      election.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCdmiZyyGjQ

      • Steven Bannister

        That was hilarious…

  • Puggg

    You mean they’re telling us that white voters matter? Gee, to listen to the Stupid Party talking heads, Hispanics are the only kind of people allowed to vote. Or you’d walk away thinking they think that.

  • Sounds to me like the Republicans should stop worrying so much about hispanic and black votes and start really representing whites. If they keep on the track they are on now even fewer whites will turn out in 2014. I will never vote for a Democrat but I am seriously considering just staying home.

    • Johnny Clay

      Staying home is not an option. I’d rather vote for a RINO and get half of what I want than vote for a Demoncrat and get none of it.

      • Yeah I know JC, I have been going to the polls and voting Republican all my life. I just really wish they would start actually representing our interests.

        • Room101

          That’s pretty funny right there, don’t care who you are.

          • I am a southerner 101, we tend to vote white, vote right, vote Republican. The first presidential election that I voted in was 1984, most of our grandparents voted Democrat most of their lives but my generation have mostly voted Republican. We don’t have much of a union tradition down this far south. It is our great misfortune to be locked in a country where half the whites seem to be naive, clueless or just plain traitorous towards their own people. We have always been surrounded by a hostile alien black population down here so we know how to stay together – though this sense of who we are is starting to fall apart. So yeah I guess it is pretty funny that I have been a fool to hope for something better in terms of representation. One coin, two heads, no matter how you flip it lands on a lying jackass.

          • John

            Indeed

      • Nathanwartooth

        Until the Republicans remember there are White people, I would recommend voting 3rd party or Democrat.

        My theory is that is enough Whites start voting Democrat, the Republicans might be persuaded to fight for our interests.

        This would have to happen in local and state elections to make a difference. I don’t think the Republicans care about the presidency any more. As long as they hold power in the house and congress they are happy.

        • Jefferson

          The changing racial demographics in this country means that most red states will eventually turn blue. When that happens Republicans will not even be able to hold power in congress, let alone win the presidency.

          The Republican Party will officially die once a Democrat carries Texas in a presidential election. That will be the final nail in the coffin of The Stupid Party.

          Texas turning blue can happen as early as 2016. Once Texas becomes a liberal blue state, it will just be another California.

        • Bill

          Sorry. But that’s as wrong headed as saying “well, if they are going to kill us anyway, might as well commit suicide.” Because that is exactly what you’d be doing. There ARE alternatives for whites, who are still just barely a majority. Make enough noise unanimously about secession or revolution, in the tens of millions, and even the Stupid Party would finally “get it”.

          • Nathanwartooth

            They will laugh in our faces and ask who else we would vote for. Third parties in this country get a minuscule amount of the vote.

            It’s only by voting them out of office and losing their power will they come to realize their mistake.

      • edie

        we need a third party, a new party……… we need it yesterday

    • Room101

      Republicans just care about holding onto government jobs and getting certain subsidies in exchange for not-filibustering and approving spending by the Candy Man.

      A long time ago I used to buy the GOP spiel about “smaller government” and all that crap, but they never cut any spending and never cut any government agencies or de-funded any less-than-worthless bureaucracies.

      Eff the GOP.

    • MikeofAges

      You have the germ of a critical point here. As long as the heavy to overwhelming Democratic vote by minorities is treated as reactive to something the Republicans are doing or not doing, what is happening cannot be understood. One has to first consider minorities as capable of autonomous action. When you do that, you then realize that pattern of bloc voting is an autonomous action engaged in with the intention of (is this so astounding?) their getting own way.

      Politics just plain operates on that level. Feather your own nest first, and reward your friends and punish your enemies. The game is meant to be played that way. If you don’t play it that way, you get eaten alive. In a few select cases here and there, literally.

      Honestly, I wouldn’t recommend staying home. Like or not, we live under an institutional two party system. You cannot change that. You have to look for whatever edge you can get.

  • So CAL Snowman

    Voting for Romney may have been “voting for the lesser of two evils.” However, voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil.

    • Steven Bannister

      We would be looking at a totally different immigration situation if Romney had won. Emboldened by a Romney victory, the GOP would be pushing for “self-deportation” now instead of freaking out and trying to “reach out to minorities” and allowing the “Gang of Eight” to dictate immigration policy.

      Not electing Romney was a BIG, BIG mistake. The whites that stayed home (including those on this page) basically put the final nail in America’s coffin.

  • Last paragraph in the original source article:

    [NAACP President Ben] Jealous says the 2014 midterm election will be the real bellwether for black turnout. “Black turnout set records this year despite record attempts to suppress the black vote,” he said.

    Even if blacks do turn out in high numbers again, which is doubtful, as there is no black President at the top of the ticket, it will make zero difference to the composition of the U.S. House, because most blacks are clumped up in safe solid blue gerrymanders. It might affect the outcome of Senate races, which are statewide affairs.

    I’m through discussing and debating reasons on why Obama won slash Romney lost. All those reasons have various combinations of validity and fatuousness, but I think I’m going to settle on Occam’s Razor: Obama won re-election because he was the incumbent. Incumbents are as hard as hell to beat straight up.

    • The name Ben Jealous just slays me.

      “I ben jealous of white people my entire life, now I lead the NAACP”.

    • evilsandmich

      despite record attempts to suppress the black vote

      Not enough Black Panther goons at the polling booths I guess.

  • Tim_in_Indiana

    One reason for the lack of white turnout is that many of them simply didn’t feel good about voting against a “black” man, no matter how incompetent or how much of a figurehead he is, so deep has been the brainwashing of whites in this country. therefore, many whites simply stayed home. Their lack of voting was in effect a vote for the status quo.

    • IstvanIN

      Yes, there are many self-hating whites, but the biggest reason is is that Romney gave us no reason to vote for him. I didn’t vote for him, I voted against Obama.

      • edie

        most of them are white women………….very susceptible to public school and media indoctrination………..

        • IstvanIN

          I have seen a lot of white men, including elderly, with Obama bumper stickers.

          • Look at them.
            Are they really men?
            Most of them are pathetic excuses.

        • Most individuals under the age of 36 are worthless. Something happened has happened since 1977 that people older than that were not subjected to.

          • edie

            it was/is a combination of media and public education

          • jambi19

            As an individual under 36 I agree with you.

        • Luis

          To these white women, abortion rights trump everything else.

    • evilsandmich

      If I had to guess that’s how it was in Northeast Ohio with the white working class. Not a lot of (apparent) love for Obama, but at the same time Romney gave them no reason to show up and vote for him (and in fact gave them reasons not to).

  • bigone4u

    What I want to know is how many DEAD blacks voted.

  • Luca

    14 million registered black voters in the US and in 2012 at least 15 million of them got out the vote. And here I thought the poor oppressed blacks were being disenfranchised due to that racist practice of asking for an ID.

    • So if 1 of 14 voted twice, that is a 7% better turn out rate.

  • Snowhitey

    The big shocker is yet to come… even less whites will vote in 2016.

    • Michael Alan Prock

      I hope you are right. The sooner we realize that the political system is hopelessly bent and twisted against us the better. The answer to our problem lies in other means.

    • Cannot Tell

      As whites continue to become a minority in their own country, it will become increasingly improbable that Republicans will win presidential elections. What do you think will happen after Republicans lose the next few presidential elections? Will they start to court the white vote? Will whites secede or flee to other countries?

      Uncertainty makes me ill. Not knowing what the future of this country will be is killing me.

  • brengunn

    He won. Get over it. What’s the point in going over voter figures? It won’t change a thing.

    Anyway, him or Hillary, would there really have been that much difference. I doubt it. For all the screams of socialist this, socialist that, Obama has governed like a any other center right Democrat.

    • Keep Honkin I’m Reloading

      From your obviously skewed point of view, I guess that qualifies you as center retard.

    • Nathanwartooth

      I guess all “center right” Democrats fight for gun control and socialized medicine.

      The only thing that he could even remotely be called on as “right wing” would be his constant wars and drone strikes.

  • pcmustgo

    Like I’ve been saying, most whites I meet are mediocre and White people really are just slacking off these days.

    • Nathanwartooth

      Whites are a very diverse group when it comes to IQ, if that is what you mean.

      • edie

        are you saying blacks arent’?

        how about those lovely step cousins of yours?

  • edie

    many black precincts voted 140% for obama–
    and plays laugh about it and wonder at the depth of cowardice many white have now accepted.

    do we turn a blind eye to that level of voter fraud?

    you may, but I don’t, and the 2012 election was fraudulent.

    • edie

      change ‘plays’ to ‘blacks’

      make ‘white’ plural

    • Northwest Indiana, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chicago ….

      And those are just the one’s I have looked into.

      • edie

        Philly was one of the worst……….

        every black enclave probably had massive fraud

  • edie

    there were rumors and even some documentation of voting machines turning Romney votes into obama votes…………whoever controls the voting machines and the vote counting, controls the result. What is disheartening is that so many of you accept it.

    wouldn’t that make it appear that less ‘white’ voters were voting.

    • Nathanwartooth

      Meh I tend to believe the results of the election because well, it was believable.

      My step cousins (long story) actually went door to door and drove hundreds of Blacks to the voting booth. There were thousands who did this.

  • LastBastionOfHope

    “…let alone attract black and latino support”

    Voting is based primarily on race for minorities. That’s just the sad fact. You could offer free college to all minorities on the Republican side, and they would still vote 95% Democratic. It’s a war between the “I can succeed myself and have personal responsibility” (Republicans) and the “Everything is racist and unfair…failure is never my fault and white people are to blame” (Democrats). Until minorities are willing to stop blaming others for their exclusive failures, voting patterns will not change. Being a victim is extremely rewarding in our culture today. It takes hard work and discipline to accomplish things and get graduate degrees or start your own business. It’s very easy to sit back and absolve yourself of any wrong doing. It’s basically akin to being a child permanently.

    • edie

      except that the reality is that the minorities are in fact majorities………..

      the world is bigger than the US

      • LastBastionOfHope

        No one is talking globally. This site is called AMERICAN Renaissance.

        • edie

          yes wise and powerful one

          excuse me for going outside the parameters of your discussion.
          s/

          KMA—— I’ll comment like I want and the world vs America is fine for this topic……….. let me repeat, kma

    • It takes hard work and discipline to accomplish things and get graduate degrees or start your own business.

      Only if you are a white person, anything else and it is almost just handed to you.

      Failure is an option when you accept no responsibility and the government does not force you to accept any.

  • Nat Turner

    And if the dog hadn’t stopped to crap he would’ve caught the rabbit. Goodnight dinosaurs…

  • AmericanPatriot

    Truth be known there was no reason for a racially realistic White person to waste a vote on Romney. Better that open borders & communist healthcare get firmly associated with blacks.

  • WR_the_realist

    I voted for a third party candidate myself. What was there about the 2012 general election to bring out the white vote? Would Romney have cut immigration, vetoed any illegal amnesty, and ended affirmative action? Of course not. However, he would have had us in a war with Iran by now. Oh, joy. To be sure, it was hard to tell where Romney stood on anything, because when Massachusetts Mitt became Republican Romney for the primary he switched his position on just about every issue.

  • JohnEngelman

    Lower income whites have a fatal attraction to the Republican Party. They do not benefit from tax cuts for the rich. They will not benefit from cuts in middle class entitlements. Nevertheless, that is what the GOP promotes.

    In the issue of immigration there is little difference between the two major parties. The Democrats want more Democratic voters. The Republicans want lower wages.

    • edie

      thus spake johnengleman, purveyor or truth and proclamations………..

      or at least so it would seem…………..to maybe a few, somewhere

    • a multiracial individual

      It is true the Republican party spits on the poor, however Democrats inadvertently hurt the poor as well. Their policies toward illegal immigrants have done much to hurt working class Americans.

      • JohnEngelman

        That is certainly true, and I have said so in the past. A high rate of immigration interferes with nearly everything else liberals want to achieve. Even the fact that immigrants tend to vote Democrat needs to be weighed against the fact that as more of them come to the United States more white blue collar workers vote Republican.

        From 1932 to 1964 white blue collar workers were the mainstay of the Democratic Party.

        • Nathanwartooth

          Good thing it is 1964 and not 2013 where both parties are radically different.

    • Nathanwartooth

      Both parties hate the middle White class equally. Why can’t you get this through your head?

      What has the Democrats done for the Middle class lately? Oh right, tax hikes for Obamacare. Which benefits who? Oh right, poor immigrants and minorities who will see an increase in their Medicaid.

      Obamacare takes a huge dump on the working poor who will now be forced to buy crappy insurance. I am considered working poor and I just had a MRI which under Obamacare would have cost be thousands but it was free.

      The next attack by the Democrats will be on teacher’s unions. Think of all the new entitlement money they can spend by turning public schools into charter schools.

      They might lose the teacher’s votes (not likely though) but they will gain many more through handing out more entitlement money.

      Why can’t you understand any of this?

    • WR_the_realist

      Both parties are horrible. The only thing the Republicans have going for them is that they’re not Democrats and the only thing the Democrats have going for them is that they’re not Republicans. Democrats abandoned the white working class about 40 years ago. When they became the party of affirmative action, forced busing, illegal immigration, gun confiscation, gay marriage, and “white privilege” campaigns, working class whites abandoned them in droves. The problem is that our two party duopoly left them with only the Republicans as the alternative, and the Replubicans never even pretended to care about the white working class.

  • Room101

    I’ll be staying away from the GOP’s noxious and toxic candidates next election as well.
    I’m not voting to retain any of the other government employees on the ballot.

    All you can really do this point is try to minimize your exposure to government and taxation.

    Continue to learn how to drop out from their artificiality and idiocy without damaging yourself.

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    America’s blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time…

    Blacks in this country make up about 13% of the population but have the highest rate of voters?

    I call VOTER FRAUD!!

    Frankly I didn’t see much difference between the two and Romney was a lousy candidate. Maybe the GOP should try running a conservative candidate next time.

    Romney lost me with “I’m gonna staple a green card to the back of someone who gets an advanced degree!”

    Blacks voted multiple times on ONE issue: Black.

    “Yes, I voted twice,” Richardson told WCPO-TV. “I, after registering thousands of people, certainly wanted my vote to count, so I voted. I voted at the polls.”

    Authorities also are investigating if she voted in the names of four other people, too, for a total of six votes in the 2012 presidential election.

    “I’ll fight it for Mr. Obama and for Mr. Obama’s right to sit as president of the United States,” Richardson vowed when asked about the voter fraud investigation that is now under way.

    Richardson claimed she had submitted an absentee ballot, but was afraid her vote would not count so she also voted in person. She also said she voted in the name of her granddaughter and yet another person.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/02/19/ohio-poll-worker-obama-supporter-investigated-for-potentially-voting-six-times/#ixzz2RlqMJ0qf

    Bon

    • Room101

      The GOP is openly following media/government spin.
      No wonder I took a shower first thing after I got done voting “against” Obama by voting “for” Romney.
      It sure looks stupid looking back on it.
      Oh well, live and learn.

      • I needed a shower and an enema too. LMAO.

  • August West

    The only thing that happens when I vote is I get called for jury duty that then makes me miss work and be that much poorer.

  • A. Windaus

    What the Republican party should do is tell the Democrats that they’re ready to talk about Amnesty, but first the Democrats have to agree to finish the fence and police the border fully. Once that is done then the Republicans should then say that Amnesty is no longer popular and go back on their word. It’s not like the Democrats don’t do this all the time, just look at the “Sequester” where the total budget still increased compared to 2012 despite promising the Republicans that it wouldn’t.

    • Pawcatch

      I think there was some voter fraud,but I think Obama still would have won without it.Romney could have won,but he chose to play positive instead of attacking Obama.Too many rural votes stayed home in Ohio,Virginia,and Colorado.
      As for minorities,there have been cases where asians and hispanics have voted for republicans at the local level,so I think that their vote can be obtained if the republicans give them enough.However,it has to be free stuff like food and cash for them,not amnesty.

    • ATBOTL

      The Democrats won’t fall for that because they aren’t as stupid as Republicans That’s why they have insisted on “comprehensive immigration reform” from the beginning.

  • Zap Branigan

    I don’t believe it.
    I believe the election was a fraud.
    There were countless areas where many thousands of votes were cast with only one or two for Romney and the rest were for Obama. In one section, out of 18,000 votes, not a single one was for Romney, ALL were for Obama. That is statistically impossible.
    Whites were under represented because their votes were simply not counted

    • ATBOTL

      No it’s not impossible. In America today, there are broad swaths of the population are 100% non-Republican voting. Deal with it.

      The harping on voter fraud is a form of ostrich in the head syndrome. Some conservatives just can’t face the facts that the country’s demographics have changed radically and that the GOP is tremendously unpopular in many places to the point of being wiped out completely.

      Whites are staying home on election day now because neither party represents them. That is good news for white nationalists, it should not be denied.

      Insisting that this is caused by voter fraud plays into the GOP establishment’s narrative that there is nothing wrong with their policies.

      Do you understand that?

  • Dave4088

    Without a doubt more and more whites are staying home, but I wonder if blacks voting multiple times accounts for their “high” voter turnout.