Immigration Reform Could Be Bonanza for Democrats

Emily Schultheis, Politico, April 22, 2013

The immigration proposal pending in Congress would transform the nation’s political landscape for a generation or more — pumping as many as 11 million new Hispanic voters into the electorate a decade from now in ways that, if current trends hold, would produce an electoral bonanza for Democrats and cripple Republican prospects in many states they now win easily.

Beneath the philosophical debates about amnesty and border security, there are brass-tacks partisan calculations driving the thinking of lawmakers in both parties over comprehensive immigration reform, which in its current form offers a pathway to citizenship—and full voting rights—for a group of undocumented residents that roughly equals the population of Ohio, the nation’s seventh-largest state.

If these people had been on the voting rolls in 2012 and voted along the same lines as other Hispanic voters did last fall, President Barack Obama’s relatively narrow victory last fall would have been considerably wider, a POLITICO analysis showed.

Key swing states that Obama fought tooth and nail to win—like Florida, Colorado and Nevada—would have been comfortably in his column. And the president would have come very close to winning Arizona.

Republican Mitt Romney, by contrast, would have lost the national popular vote by 7 percentage points, 53 percent to 46 percent, instead of the 4-point margin he lost by in 2012, and would have struggled even to stay competitive in GOP strongholds like Texas, which he won with 57 percent of the vote.

The analysis is based on U.S. Census and Pew Research Center estimates of illegal immigrant populations by state, and presidential exit polls showing how Obama and Romney performed among Latinos.


To illustrate the potential voting shifts once immigrants are able to vote, look at Texas, Arizona and Georgia. The total undocumented immigrant population in each of those states exceeds Romney’s margin of victory.

Texas, where the unauthorized immigrant population is second only to California’s, had an estimated 1.65 million undocumented immigrants in 2010, according to statistics from the Pew Hispanic Center. Romney won the state in 2012 by just under 1.3 million votes.

In Arizona, Romney won by 212,000 votes — and there are an estimated 400,000 undocumented immigrants in the state as of 2010.

Even Georgia, which isn’t a border state and doesn’t immediately come to mind when thinking of immigrant-heavy states, would be affected: Georgia had an estimated 425,000 undocumented immigrants in 2010, per Pew Hispanic Center’s estimates, and Romney won there by 308,000 votes.

If all those immigrants had voted in 2012 and President Obama had won 71 percent of them—the percentage he won among Latinos nationally—he would have come in less than 50,000 votes short in Arizona, within about a half-million votes of winning Texas and 125,000 votes shy in Georgia.


Topics: , , ,

Share This

We welcome comments that add information or perspective, and we encourage polite debate. If you log in with a social media account, your comment should appear immediately. If you prefer to remain anonymous, you may comment as a guest, using a name and an e-mail address of convenience. Your comment will be moderated.
  • The__Bobster

    I love how the Dems and the media give the Stupid Party helpful advice on digging their own grave. The worst thing is that they take this advice and run with it.

    • bluffcreek1967

      Good point. It boggles the mind when one considers that Democrats and Republicans are working together for amnesty when anyone with even half a brain can see quite obviously that the only political party to benefit by it is the Democrat party. The Democrats are handing the shovel over to the Republicans so they further dig their own graves. But then what else does one expect from a party that has lost its way and willfully chooses to ignore its majority white base?

      • George White

        This simply isn’t true at all. You have only a few GOP idiots on board with this. I suspect that most of the GOP is strongly against it, and that is why I doubt it will pass the House.

        • The__Bobster

          Ah, but it IS true. A lot of the Republicans have been bought off by usual suspect money.

          Is Cash Avalanche Sweeping GOP Into Amnesty Acquiescence?
          By Patrick Cleburne on March 2, 2013 at 8:38pm

          Could it be that all this hoop-la about the GOP being more open to Amnesty aka “immigration reform” and Minority Outreach generally reflects not a (highly questionable) reaction to the 2012 election but simply the fact that unprecedented amounts of cash are being been made available to those willing to sing the Treason Lobby song?

          Consider the tasteless advertorial carried by Politico on Thursday Republican group readies immigration blitz By Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman 2/28 13

          The American Action Network is poised to launch a major advocacy campaign aimed at winning support for immigration reform on the right…

          AAN officials described the campaign in detail to POLITICO, outlining how the organization aims to drum up support for both immigration legislation and Republican budget proposals in the coming months.

          This account got right to their main argument

          The nonprofit group and an affiliated super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, spent a combined $55 million on advocacy and electioneering in 2011 and 2012, officials said. With $44 million of that total coming from AAN – a number that hasn’t previously been shared – the group can expect to have substantial resources for its policy messaging going forward.

    • sbuffalonative

      If any form of amnesty is passed, it will be in conjunction with ObamaCare. There will also be an increased push to get minorities into the middle class; hence more shaky loans to minorities for housing. There will be increasing calls for ‘the rich’ (middle class working whites included) to contribute more in taxes.

      These and other programs aren’t going to be able to sustain themselves. There’s going to be a point where the takers overwhlem the producers. The system is going to collapse. How long it takes is debatable but it will happen.

      If it happens in the next few decades, many of us will be directly affected. We all need to be planning for what comes next.

      • bigone4u

        You’ve been on a strong roll recently. The question that remains is how to prevent or survive the collapse, if it is now inevitable.

    • Bill

      Because they are two hands of the same body. There is no stupid party. There are only stupid Americans who vote for either party and dig their own graves believing the vaudeville act presented us by the evil power mongers and elites.

    • Jefferson

      The Stupid Party believes that all Catholics regardless of race are “Natural Republicans”. That is why they foolishly believe Amerindian Catholics from Mexico and Black Catholics from The Dominican Republic who live in the U.S, will all one day vote like Irish and Italian Catholics.

  • Talltrees

    White House Receives Petition To Stop All Islamic Immigration Into US.

    Sign the petition.

    • Fed Up

      I’ll sign it. I’m sure millions would if the knew about it but with the Kenyan at the helm and his race baiter Holder takin’ care of beness…

      • Talltrees

        They need 100,000 signatures. Send to your friends and acquaintances. We can do this.

    • Liberalsuck

      Wow! Sign another useless online petition that any dope in their basement with a computer can create? Like those ‘petitions’ to secede or deport Piers Morgan? Because I’m so sure the politicians will listen seriously to an online petition and will meet all our demands just because we create and pass around an online petition.

      • Talltrees

        No. Obama will address the issue if the threshold is reached. That’s the deal with petitions on It’s the White House website, not or any of the others.

        If enough of us complain to our legislators, they will take notice. We are voters. That’s all they worry about.

        Don’t know about the author being a dope. I’d say he’s fed-up like the rest of us. He merely used the website’s format as all others do. It’s unimportant whether he did it in his basement, bedroom, office, place of work, kitchen, bathroom, garage, patio, car, or standing on his head, it’s that he did something.

        What are we doing now besides nothing? We have no civil rights organization or any other type supporting us. If we do nothing, we will receive nothing. One of these days something might click.

        You don’t have to sign it, but please don’t discourage others from doing so.


        • Greg Thomas

          You mean by “addressing the issue,” he will dismiss the issue with a one paragraph response. But I’ll sign anyway.

  • The__Bobster

    Texas, where the unauthorized immigrant population is second only to California’s, had an estimated 1.65 million undocumented immigrants in 2010, according to statistics from the Pew Hispanic Center. Romney won the state in 2012 by just under 1.3 million votes.

    The difference between Texas and Califoreigner is that the Whites in Texas vote for Whites.

    • bigone4u

      White Texans will vote for Hispanics. Mayor Henry Cisneros won with white support in San Antonio. Senator Ted Cruz is Hispanic. Current SA Mayor Julian Castro hates whites but whites have remained silent. Austin is a bunch of crazed hippies and state government workers whose primary interest is more pay.

  • Fed Up

    “unauthorized?” “undocumented?” Oh, this politically correct idiot means ILLEGAL. Also, I saw an estimate over at Vdare that says there could be 30 to 60 million of these invaders. Not 11 million!

    • The__Bobster

      The best guess is 30-38 million, but amnesty will allow them to bring in their relatives, boosting the total to around 100 million. This will collapse our social programs, which may cause a brown-on-black race war.

      • Liberalsuck

        This will screw over whites since we’ll be taxed to death paying for them and losing our jobs, but the blacks will have it even worse than us whites will. The Hispanics and Asians might not like us, but they hate blacks worse and they won’t kiss up to them like we will.

    • Triarius

      It was 12-20 million when I was in high school (2002). I can’t imagine that it dropped in a decade or more. The most accurate estimate I saw was 29.8 million almost 3 years ago. Add in anchor babies and it is closer to 50 million, if not more.

  • Fed Up

    That’s right and it is too late to “focus on the white vote.” That would have been the best strategy — 15 years ago! Too late!

    • The__Bobster

      No, they can still win for many years in the foreseeable future if they get a good share of the White vote.

      Of course, because of mass non-white immigration and the fact that racial voting patterns are pretty well fixed, the U.S. electorate is shifting a point or 2 against the GOP every election cycle.

      But the GOP would easily counter that by returning to Reagan Era levels of white share and turnout.

      Indeed, even if immigration continues at current levels, the GOP could still win the 2052 presidential election—if it could increase its white share to 70 percent.

      • Liberalsuck

        This country will fall apart by then. I wouldn’t even give until 2020. That’s being too gracious.

  • jay11

    I am also one of those who wonder how Republicans can be so utterly stupid. There are actually a LOT of republicans who honestly believe that latinos can be won over to the republican ‘small government’ platform. The only reason, and I mean the only reason that latinos are swamping our country is for all the free government freebies and welfare giveaways.

    True story: One week ago, I asked a group of about 12 latino students (almost all illegals – is there any other kind?) what they know about the government here, and do you know what they all said, almost in unison? “Free food. Free cell phone. Free rent.” I am not making this up. Two of them smiled a little in embarassment, but the rest had earnest looks on their faces that bespoke of their belief that the U.S. government is ‘supposed’ to provide all these things for latinos.

    The local “Make the Road” commie activists push this all the time in their ‘seminars’ and again I cannot help but wonder why republicans, our last hope (and a sorry one at that) have abandoned the american people and left us to be overrun with non-american foreigners who are only creating colonies of their old homelands here.

    • The__Bobster

      They’re making sure that full amnesty won’t take place for 10 years, so that they can maintain power and grab all the money they can before heading for the hills.

    • Liberalsuck

      So many whites today, even ‘conservatives’, are in denial about race. They think if they kiss up to blacks and browns more that they will start thinking and acting like most normal white people and vote for the GOP and overthrow socialism. The illegals are here for free stuff and the blacks want the government to take care of them. Hardly conservative values. If the GOP does this, they can be assured they will piss off more of their base and will not gain any blacks or browns.

    • Greg Thomas

      Anyone who had the misfortune of living near a Mexican invader barrio, knows that the candy man would have a better chance of capturing their votes than the GOP ever

    • Xerxes22

      Political parties serve those who own, control and run them. The political party is simply a tool to help those people achieve their ends. The political party itself means nothing. If and when it is no longer useful, it can be discarded and replaced with another party. It doesn’t matter if these new immigrants drain our treasury. The ruling elite woun’t be paying for it . They will become even richer with lower taxes for themselves and lower wages and benifits for their employees. For them it is a win win situation.

  • Secret Tribunal

    GOP is Dem is Amnesty for the entire third world.

    You aren’t allowed anymore.

  • bigone4u

    The Republicans and the Democrats are two servants serving the same Master. The Master seeks to give the illusion of choice by blowing up minor, unimportant differences between the servants into major issues. On the big issues, both parties bow to and lick the boots of the Master. The Master is of course money. Money seeks a country with cheap labor, docile enough to be bought off with crumbs like Obamaphones. The uppity white middle class, with its unions and independence of thought is to be bred out of existence over the next 50 years or so. Money is patient. It can wait. No need for a hard dictatorship when a soft one will do.

  • Bill

    COULD be? Duh. They know exactly what they have been doing over the last 20 years and more, and what the end result was they wanted to achieve. They are nearly there. If we let them get away with this, the WILL have finally achieved their goal. Enough nanny state voters to keep the Dems in power forever, and enough to allow them to do ALL the things they have been dreaming about for decades, and the Tim Wise types have been letting out of the bag. No guns. A serf population cowed by a dictatorship with no means of redress. Re-education camps for those who are not politically correct or who resist the indoctrination. Marxism in America with the same structure of the old Soviet Union – a tiny minority at the top living like kings and princes, and a massive bureaucratic structure of drones meant to keep the people in line, with the majority of people living in poverty and no hope of advancing beyond subsistence unless part of the Party elites.

  • Bill

    The Republican leadership and the Republican past presidents go golfing and partying with their Democratic colleagues. They ARE the ones who think themselves elite over us, and who ARE the combined power structure of their vision for an American Soviet Union. They are NO different nor have different goals from their friends across the aisle. It’s all a sham to fool the public while they push us ever closer to their goals.

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    Anyone here believe the LIE that there are “only” 11 million illegal aliens?

    Hell, there are 11 million in Los Angeles County alone!

    Oh, and BTW, all you traitorous White lefties– they won’t be voting for YOU, they’ll be voting for their own –BROWN lefties –who’ll let in another 11 million. Might as well give up your seats now, for the “cause.”

    I live in California and I have seen the future.


    • Greg Thomas

      I’ve said the same thing all along Bon. I’m certain California alone has over 10 million illegal invading mexicans squatting on our soil.

    • JohnEngelman

      The road to Hell is paved with corporate campaign contributions. The people who own and run the United States want more immigrants so that they can cut wages, raise prices, and generate higher profits.

  • Greg Thomas

    If 11 million illegal invading mexicans will “cripple” the GOP, 24 million will destroy the GOP. Are they listening? Apparently not. They will try even harder to pander to the brown hordes.

  • NeanderthalDNA

    How stupid are the Repugnants? Gee – Jay Leno figgered this out already – 11 million undocumented Demoncrats…

    Maybe Leno should do one of his moron on the street things – at the next Repugnant gathering…

  • JohnEngelman

    Whenever anyone uses the word “reform” you should ask more questions. Immigration reform means more immigrants. That means lower wages of those of us who already live here.

    The decline of the Republican Party does not bother me. The decline of the American employee does.

    • Jefferson

      Crony capitalist Republicans remind me of the wealthy elite in Latin America. Crony capitalist Republicans want to live in a country that has a small wealthy White elite and a population of overwhelmingly poor Black and Brown people.

      50 years from now, the only predominantly White neighborhoods left in America will be neighborhoods where the average cost of a home is over $1 million dollars.

  • who cares whether more mass immigration helps the Dems more than the GOP?

    Since when has the GOP done a damn thing about mass immigration.

    Here is what the last GOP prez said about the invasion from mexico and why it is needed, in his words:

    “Because texans won’t lay hot tar in august.”

    That is a SLAVEowner mentality. Tell me it aint. Go look it up. That was from an interview with George Bush in the late 90s. In Mother Jones, I believe. The GOP not only facilitates mass immigration but actually buys into the slaveowner mentality. Unbelievable.

    Obama has NEVER said anything near as anti-american citizen as that! Nowhere near.

    That is the GOP for you. And you care about how the GOP does against the Dems? Why??!!

    And what about the federal govt stats that show that the Obama admin deported something like 40% MORE illegals than the Bush admin did.

    Why did amren and vdare and the rest of the anti-immigration movement not have a deep and thorough analysis of these stats? Instead these stats have been for the most part ignored by amren, vdare, et al. WHY???

    Maybe amren and vdare and the rest of the anti-immigration sites are simply an outreach of the GOP, paid off by the GOP, funded by the GOP and with a goal of pulling in voters for the GOP.

    Do you even care about stopping mass immigration?

    Are you paid by some shadowy lobbying group, or foundation or think tank?

    Again and again we see these anti-immigration sites take the side of the GOP. Why??

    And again and again and again we see these anti-immigration sites adopt so-called ‘conservative’ ideology (low taxes for the rich, weaker social safety net, etc). Why do they care about these things? Why do these anti-immigration sites help the corporate media maintain ideological apartheid, where the Dem and GOP core ideologies are maintained separate and unmixable, so that there is a de facto unwritten rule that you cannot mix and match ideas from the Dems and GOP.? Where has any writer on any of these anti-immigration sites ever said, “I am against mass immigration, but I do not like the rest of the GOP/conservative ideas, such as lowering taxes on the rich”? Why is it that in all the hundreds or thousands of articles put out on these sites that no one has ever said that?

  • Erasmus

    I’ve begun to wonder if the GOP is going along with destroying the US in their desire to establish the North American Union. A rich US would never want to be part of a union with a poor country like Mexico. But a US as poor as Mexico would go along a lot more willingly, and since bringing Mexico up to US standards wouldn’t be possible in a thousand years, bring the US down to Mexico’s level instead.

  • Erasmus

    Could be a bonanza?
    Too bad the pubbies didn’t listen to smarter minds back in the early ’90’s when members of their own party were talking about a moratorium on immigration…but the party “elites” didn’t want to be called racists…a bunch of irresponsible clowns, the whole lot of them.

    • Funruffian

      The more a person or group tries to evade accusations of bigotry or racism, the more they become susceptible to that ‘stigma’ over time. Their fear becomes their own weakness while the instigator gains advantage and momentum over them. That is what has happened to the GOP in the past 17 years. The thought of being deemed a racist scares them.

  • Don Reynolds

    This article is a bloody lie.
    Because the proposed immigration law reinforces the mania for “family unification”, it will put 120 (one hundred, twenty) million new democrats on the path to voting citizenship.
    We had the same thing happen with the 1987 Amnesty when “only” one million quickly became five million after chain immigration kicked in. Apparently, it worked so well last time, they are telling the same lie again.
    This 120 million new democrats is greater than the combined population of all states in the South…..a fact that must have made Mr. Obamba grin.