Posted on February 17, 2012

King: Demographics Trending Against GOP Agenda

Bill King, Chron, February 15, 2012

Memo to Republicans: There are not enough old, angry white people to win a national election.

Apparently Republicans are unaware of a new science called demographics that has been developed over the last several decades. {snip}


The modest inroads the Republicans had made with African-Americans in the Bush years have pretty much dissolved with their relentless personal attacks on President Obama. Latinos, who Bush had very effectively wooed, are running for the Democratic hills and away from the vitriolic Republican anti-immigration rhetoric. And the roughly 2.5 million Muslims in the U.S., who had historically heavily supported the Republican Party, are now leaning towards the Democrats because of the demonization of their faith by many Republican candidates.

Here is the problem if you are trying to win a national election. As of the 2010 census, only 63 percent of the U.S. population is white. If you have written off 37 percent of the population, you have to get nearly 80 percent of the white vote to win an election. The reality is not quite that bad because whites tend to vote in much higher percentages than other groups.


In fact, the only group on which Republicans can reliably count on are older white voters. The polling does show that this group is highly agitated and motivated, meaning they are more likely to show up to vote or participate in a caucus.

But regardless of how motivated they are, there are simply not enough of them to win. {snip}

But here is the other thing the demographics show. Based on the trends, there is virtually no chance Republicans, with their current agenda, will ever be competitive in a national election again.

Whites, who already are a minority in four states, will lose their majority status in the nation by around 2040. During that same time the percentage of Americans who are Latino or Asian will nearly double. With a birthrate too low to maintain our population, virtually all of our future population growth will come from immigration. {snip}