Where Obama’s White Vote Matters Less in 2012

Brian McGill and Scott Bland, National Journal (Washington, D.C.), March 31, 2011

In the map and chart below, National Journal projects the percentage of the white vote that President Obama will need to carry an individual state in 2012. The baseline simulation makes two key assumptions. First, that Obama captures as much of the minority vote in that state as he did in 2008. Second, that the minority population grows over the next two years at the same rate it has since 2000 and produces a commensurate increase in the minority share of the electorate. The chart shows where the growing minority presence will allow Obama to win states even if he loses support among whites–and where he will need to increase his support from whites to prevail.

If President Obama cannot maintain his 2008 level of support among nonwhite voters, his electoral math looks tougher. In the reduced-support scenario, National Journal cut Obama’s nonwhite support by a tenth in each state he carried in 2008. The percentage of the white vote Obama would need to carry the state then rises compared to our baseline, especially in states with a significant nonwhite population. This scenario shows the president needing to maintain or increase his support among white voters from 2008 levels to hold onto some electoral-vote-rich battleground states, including Florida and North Carolina. {snip}

map

Click here to enlarge the map.

[Readers may also view the detailed chart and the interactive map with reduced-support scenarios at the original article.]

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  • Question Diversity

    One factor that NJ didn’t seem to consider, maybe because it wasn’t too relevant to what they were calculating, is the reapportionment math. Obama’s 364-174 win over McCain in 2008 is a 358-180 win under the 2012 Electoral College numbers transposed over the same red/blue map. So just based on that, Obama is starting with a slight disadvantage.

  • Anonymous

    My dead grandmother better not vote for him again in 2012!

  • Anonymous

    Two things:

    1. Get your white friends and neighbors on one side of the fence.

    Don’t care who. But make sure that it’s conservative. Because conservatives have inbuilt common-cause coalition options as blocking efforts to democratic feints and probes on racial transfers and entitlements necessary to sustain their own majority-of-minorities pandering to the rainbow.

    2. Sabotage democratic principles as promises.

    Force them to push through legislation that reveals their agendas to be false or at least unattainable. Denying them the payoffs and privilege seeking for those above mentioned minorities.

    Do this, and you will see the percentage of Hispanic votes drop. And Hispanics are important because they are the growth population.

    In 50+ years, Blacks antisocial behaviors and physical conditions (locking up adult males, having ugly women) have seen them increase only a single percentage point, from 12 to 13%.

    In one 2000-2010 decade, Michigan, a single northern White State, increased it’s Hispanic percentages by 35%.

    Historically, Hispanic voting trends follow whites by about one election cycle as they ‘trend’ to adopt a wait and see approach to the promises made by Democrats. Unlike blacks and whites who vote blindly along polar lines.

    Given they have historically poor voter turnout anyway, spoiling tactics thus work very well against them in forcing a Blue/Red/None vote split. Enforcing the notion that politics is a rigged game with nothing that is not zero-sum rewarding to them.

    But to make this happen you have to have all your ducks in a row so that the key laws that are up for passage ALL FAIL (or fail to be blocked) before the next critical democratic office comes up for status-points voting.

    We are so stupid that we have let national politics become a racially gamed cross between Hollywood and the NFL conferences. But since we are on the downswing, demographically, we must now play the odds by stealing back Democratic percentage points across a continuum of conservative party alternatives whose appeal matches closer to white liberals overt attitudes and hidden fears.

    We must hang together. Or we will surely hang separately.

  • Memphomaniac

    White voters have not been on Mr. Obama’s radar for the past 26 months, nor has he reached out to them in any way (unless they belong to a Leftist organization or a labor union). But I guarantee he will soon realize that he cannot get re-elected with black and hispanic voters, even if he were to carry all of the under 25 vote. No matter how he cuts it, there simply are not enough minorities to get elected president and next time he will not be running against George Bush (not that Bush was on the ballot in 2008). This time around, he will find that his high handed ways will be very fresh in the minds of a good many independents and they will vote accordingly.

    I have said it before…..Obama is the Herbert Hoover of our age. (George Bush was Calvin Coolidge.) And like Hoover, Mr. Obama will be a one-term president….thank goodness. (Hoover ran for re-election too.)

    Yes, incumbant presidents do get rejected by the voters. Bush Sr., Carter, Ford, Truman, and Hoover all managed to lose the office by their own actions.

  • Non-African American

    Whatever hastens the onset of full race panic among a critical mass of White Humanity, we applaud. We want more and faster White Dispossession!

    Every time I see a black on TV, especially the news anchors, which is now on every channel, I celebrate the Whitey journalism majors who were discriminated against and didn’t get the jobs they earned so that the blacks could help the media “better reflect the communities we serve.”

    White journalism students are all liberal elites who want good jobs and high pay for themselves while reporting on how raciss America is. When they don’t get the jobs, and their charity pet afrovoodoos do, we rejoice.

    Some Whites deserve to be dispossessed… let them taste the bitter end of the Diversity Treatment… all that hard work, talent, skill, good grades, good looks, staying out of jail and un-pregnant got them nothing, which is about what we’d give them if we had the chance.

  • BO_BIll

    John Adams teaches us: “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide.”

    Somewhat dated income data by race: White-$26,774; Hispanic-$13,492; Black-$15,775 (three-fifths?!). So, given a progressive tax structure and a regressive public cost of HHS assistance, we see the end of the dollar arrive with the demographic changes our betters have presented us.

    You know, back in the day, you used to have to pay taxes to vote.

  • olewhitelady

    No doubt the liberal states in New England and the West coast will fall again to Obama, but some of the electoral-rich states like OH and FL probably won’t. Many of the whites who decided to “give Obama a chance” (read “see how a black President can do”) should now believe their decision was a very bad one. Sensible whites now see what happens when they don’t stick together and allow blacks and browns to combine against them. We’ve gotten a little taste of what Southerners had to deal with during Radical Reconstruction, and we’d better act as quickly and decisively as they did.

  • the Soviet Republic of New Jersey

    ACORN AND THE BLACK PANTHERS WILL GET THE VOTES

    Obama only needs ten cities of the ten biggest states and those cities are black ACORN cities. The GOP will be terrified to perform recounts. Obama will also get all the money he wants from Russia, China, and the Islamic Terrorist world. The only person who could have a chance of stopping the Communist juggernaught is Palin and the GOP has worked to dump her. Better to be defeated than to give in to the TEA. Better to destroy a nation than to give in to the TEA.

  • Middle American

    Never underestimate the soft underbelly of the dumb white voter. The same racially confused, guilt-ridden white liberal dimwits who put Obama in office have not yet hardened up enough to reject his call a second time.

    In addition, another 4 years of Obama is even more dangerous because he is obviously just a lazy, no-nothing tool, in a job so far over his head he is clueless.

    The media is firmly on his side and defeating him won’t be easy. The real key is the proper Republican candidate – most of the current crop are not much to cheer about but another McCain is too great a risk.

    Blacks will vote close to 100% for Obama but their turn-out is a big question mark. I suspect it will be less than 2008.

    Still, barring some national crisis, I doubt Obama will win. Every AmRen reader must get every white person to the polls to vote in accordance with our values.

  • patthemick

    I cannot help but believe that this guy will be a one term president. I fully expect a full court press by the media not to change horses in mid-stream. The american public does not like to change leadership in a war but we have never had a president who supports endless war like both the Republicans and now apparently the Democrats.

    This is a great opportunity to elect a real conservative but the risk there is being turned on by the Republican elite who would sacrifice the good of the country to keep pushing us into the NWO.

  • generalquagmyer

    The great nightmare is that the Obama majority will prove to be a coalition of parasitic wards of the state and public sector employees, with their “tax the rich” mentality. The promise of more goodies will assure their vote.

    “The rich,” of course, means any property-owning white person. And when there are no more rich, there will be no more social order.

  • Anonymous

    :Yes, incumbant presidents do get rejected by the voters. Bush Sr., Carter, Ford, Truman, and Hoover all managed to lose the office by their own actions.”

    Truman did not, actually. He chose not to run in 1952.

  • Anonymous

    If the GOP chooses Marco Rubio or Chris Christie than Obama will be a 1 term president. If the GOP chooeses Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin than Obama will be a 2 term president.

  • Sunnyvale Sal

    And if by some miracle the Republicans won, it would make only the slightest difference. They are about as anti-White as the Democrats. They are also doing just as much to bring the US to total economic collapse — although thru somewhat different methods.

  • Anonymous

    I really can’t say one way or the other. Re-elected or not, neither would surprise me. There is one gaurantee though, if he is not re-elected it will be blamed %100 on racism. As cities all over the U.S. are set on fire Obama will be celebrated as the greatest POTUS ever and he will be lifted to near martyr status by every minority group. Think of how Micheal Jackson’s “acomplishments” were celebrated right after his death. He was just a pop celebrity! With the media’s help the world will be told Obama was the single most important thing to ever happen in U.S. history, he could have continued his legacy, but white racism would not allow it. Cities will burn and deaths will occur. Whitey will be blamed.

  • Michigan Patriot

    Original Americans, aka, Euro/White-Christians need to down size and recreate a White-Christian nation again within our old borders (?) but not repeat the culturalcidal mistake of inclusion of others ; they become a jealous, covetous cancer on the majority and ” The squeaky Wheel ” always seems to get copious amount of “unconstitutional oil” from Marxist liberals in D.C. .

  • Whiteplight

    14 — Sunnyvale Sal wrote at 2:46 AM on April 5:

    “And if by some miracle the Republicans won, it would make only the slightest difference. They are about as anti-White as the Democrats. They are also doing just as much to bring the US to total economic collapse — although thru somewhat different methods.”

    I agree with your statement, Sunnyvale Sal. What is coming is inevitable. Nothing will correct this mess other than a total collapse, long period of chaos, with a possible new beginning. Sound apocalyptic, but during my now long life I have seen nothing but misrule regardless of party.

  • Paul

    Something to consider when voting for President is state immigration laws. It is usually Republicans at the state level that pass laws like the one in AZ last year. A Republican president and Republican justice dept. are not as likely to block state legislation restricting illegal immigrant benefits. Party politics are immature and do very little to save the country but the end result would be favorable to us. And if your state is not a “santuary state” less immigrants move in next door. That’s a good enough reason for me to vote R

  • Nathaniel Branden, Jr.

    Truman only chose not to run in 1952 because he had absolutely no chance of getting reelected. Korea, Communism and Corruption sank him but good. He also started the ‘civil right’ nonsense and undeclared wars. A total nogoodnik.

  • Anonymous

    Whites should be focused on how we are going to separate from the government and enforce separation…..not which of the single anti-white party with two heads we are going to vote for.

    If you are going to vote, vote strategically. For example, many white nationalists voted for Obama. Why? Because he’s a powerful tool for deconstructing the anti-white agenda.

    He’s been so bad that we have the real makings of a soviet style breakup of the US…likely along racial lines. Look at the latest census map. Roughly contiguous white, black and mexican areas with clear borders. The white area contiguous with canada.

    The situation has real possibilities should racial awareness increase just a little bit more.

  • WR the elder

    Making the white vote irrelevant has long been a major goal of the “progressives”, hence their advocacy of mass immigration and illegal immigration. But before we slice and dice the odds for Obama in 2012, don’t forget the other side of the equation — his Republican opponent. I guarantee that the Republicans will find a candidate so unpalatable that tens of millions of whites will wind up voting for Obama as the lesser of two evils, and I will once again be forced to vote for a third party candidate as a protest vote. The best thing Obama has going for him is the sheer idiocy of the Republican party.

  • Bernie

    What have the Republicans done for us? End affirmative action? Reduce immigration? Speak out on anti-white double standards?

    They have done nothing – and will keep doing it.

    Better explicit anti-white racism than the quiet, subtle anti-white racism of the GOP.

    Better Obama than a pro-affirmative action GOP jester like Gingrich, Palin or Huckabuck.

  • AlmostMusicPhD

    I see people on this site saying, “get white voters to vote conservative.’ Frankly, it’s past that point. I see the only solution to this mess, is to let the Obamanation come full circle. Get guns, gold, and grain, and move out of the cities, Brothers of the Race! Anti-white HATRED is already there in nascent form- heck, it’s already overt! Who are we kidding? For it is only then, (when guns and guts and seeing the other as, well, ‘the OTHER’) when reality takes the place of soccer moms and ‘seeker sensitive’ types, that we can at last rebuild this nation, as it was meant to be:

    “For US and OUR Posterity.”

    “You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one…”

    And, looking at this map, NOW I understand why Chuck Baldwin and company moved to Montana!