GOP Shouldn’t Panic If Whites Become a Minority

Michael Barone, Examiner (Washington), April 2, 2011


But it’s a mistake to see blacks, Hispanics and Asians as a single “people of color” voting bloc. The 2010 exit poll shows that the Republican percentages in the vote for the U.S. House were 60 percent among whites, 9 percent among blacks, 38 percent among Hispanics and 40 percent among Asians.

Simple arithmetic tells you that Hispanics and Asians vote more like whites than like blacks. The picture is similar in the 2008 exit poll.

Moreover, while blacks vote similarly in just about every state, there is wide variation among Hispanics. In 2010 governor elections Hispanics voted 31 percent Republican in California, 38 percent Republican in Texas and 50 percent Republican in Florida (where Cubans are no longer a majority of Hispanics).

As RealClearPolitics senior political analyst Sean Trende has written, Hispanics tend to vote 10 to 15 percent less Republican than whites of similar income and education levels. An increasingly Hispanic electorate puts Republicans at a disadvantage, but not an overwhelming one.

The same is true of Asians. In 2010 Democratic Sen. Harry Reid got 79 percent from Asians in Nevada, where many are Filipinos. But the Asians in Middlesex County, N.J., most of whom are from India, seem to have voted for Republican Gov. Chris Christie in 2009.

The 2010 census tells something else that may prove important: There’s been a slowdown of immigration since the recession began in 2007 and even some reverse migration. If you look at the census results for Hispanic immigrant entry points–East Los Angeles and Santa Ana, Calif., the east side of Houston, the Pilsen neighborhood in Chicago–you find that the Hispanic population has dropped sharply since 2000.


Past mass migrations, which most experts expected to continue indefinitely, in fact ended abruptly. Net Puerto Rican migration to New York City stopped in 1961, and the huge movement of Southern blacks to Northern cities ended in 1965. Those who extrapolate current trends far into the future end up being wrong sooner or later.


American blacks do have common roots in slavery and segregation. But African immigrants don’t share that heritage, and Hispanics come from many different countries and cultures (there are big regional differences just within Mexico). The Asian category includes anyone from Japan to Lebanon and in between.

{snip} By today’s definitions we’ll become majority nonwhite a few decades hence.

But that may not make for the vast cultural and political change some predict. Not if we assimilate newcomers, and if our two political parties adapt, as we and they have done in the past.


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28 Responses to “GOP Shouldn’t Panic If Whites Become a Minority” Subscribe

  1. Question Diversity April 4, 2011 at 6:02 pm #

    As someone who is interested in some of the same things, there is probably nobody better than Michael Barone for election statgeekery. But he needs to brush up on basic math.

    You need 51% to win most elections. The only whole number Barone stated that is more than 51 is 60, that is, the percentage of whites that voted Republican last year. Furthermore, all the black, Hispanic and Asian percentages for Republicans are inflated because 2010 was a year that the Republicans had the winds to their backs. Even then, no non-white group in any state gave the Republicans a majority.

    Therefore, Barone is wrong. The Republicans shouldn’t panic over the dispossession of whites in both the total population terms and in their composition of the electorate. They should prepare their shrouds.

  2. sbuffalonative April 4, 2011 at 6:49 pm #

    “But it’s a mistake to see blacks, Hispanics and Asians as a single “people of color” voting bloc.”

    Blacks are dreaming of a non-white coalition to take down the white man. Hispanics and Asians have their own agendas which don’t include blacks. Hispanics are using blacks as a stepping stone and co-opting ‘civil rights’ for their own gain. Blacks are fools to support ‘diversity’ which includes all non-whites.

    Barone is partially right in that non-whites aren’t likely to form any collective win over whites. However, along the way, as a coalition or individual groups, they’re going to do a great deal of damage to the rights found in the Constitution.

    Freedom of association is gone and free speech is on the precipice. The greater the diversity, the more laws will be needed to ensure ‘equal’ treatment and ‘equal’ outcome.

    It’s going to get complicated and increasingly oppressive for whites.

  3. RandyB April 4, 2011 at 6:50 pm #

    Numerous Amren columnists and speakers have made the point that “diversity” can only be pushed so before the conflicting interests of the minority groups start to break apart the coalition.

    The challenge is going to be focusing on that, rather than letting liberal media blame all problems on whites. Rape statistics show a fundamental disconnect between the political priorities of blacks (“too many of us are in prison”) and feminists, yet the latter still talk about the “culture of rape” (code for white male dominance) as a primary cause, despite the fact that white males have far below average rape rates.

    The lack of unskilled jobs in today’s economy is a fundamental conflict between Hispanics and blacks, but liberals still talk about the victimization of slave wages (hint: wages rise as the demand/supply balance improves.) Exit polls from California’s gay marriage referendum showed minorities were largely against it, but liberals blamed Mormons as the only large white group.

    Focusing on the incompatibilities of a generalize diversity needs to be one of our top publicity priorities.

  4. highduke April 4, 2011 at 6:59 pm #

    The more the GOP alligns itself with Tea Party values, the better it is for White Americans especially because they can rely on Hispanics & Asians. People who want the GOP to be for Whites only are either daft or trolling. Putin relies on non-Russian voters, even Muslims. US WNs need to learn that they can be WN & get the non-White vote too.

  5. Art from the NC mountains April 4, 2011 at 7:23 pm #

    Nothing makes any difference. Whites are doomed because of actions by stupid white men in the past. It’s irreversible. Where whites can group for protection and commerce among themselves should be the key question now that “we” have given the store away.

    We (the current generation) are getting what we deserve but hopefully the grandkids will somehow be able to safely survive if we plan ahead.

    Why do you think so many financial experts have bought farms in and near mountains in the U.S. while also establishing specific non-Muslim locations in Asia (based on the premise that it is much better to be surrounded by Orientals than you know who in this country in the future).

  6. Chicagoan April 4, 2011 at 7:31 pm #

    This person is way out of touch with the reality most people are dealing with. Who cares if the irrelevant GOP wins elections in a country that’s going down like the Titanic? He also spins thing in a dishonest manner. He says net Puerto Rican migration to NY unexpectedly stopped in 1961; well PR is a small island anyway, how many could leave? There’s as many on the mainland as in PR itself. The mass movement of blacks northward stopped around 1965; again, so what, many millions did move. He claims the Hispanic population of Chicago’s Pilsen neighborhood has dropped since 2000. Nonsense, just go to the neighborhood and take a look around, it’s just crawling with illegals, they didn’t just vanish into thin air. So Harry Reid got 79% of the Asian vote; big whoopee. That’s supposed to be of importance to us?

  7. olewhitelady April 4, 2011 at 8:47 pm #

    Republicans need to stick to the interests of whites and stop trying to pick up Hispanic votes. If McCain had done so, he might have induced more whites to come out and vote and may have beaten Obama.

    The only true ethnic bloc vote in this country is composed of blacks. Even the Cubans are no longer solid Republican and will continue to vary as American-born members mature. With a third of all Hispanics voting GOP, the Democrats can’t count on them in the future. But, as for now, it won’t help the GOP to try to nibble at the edges.

    Obama and his anti-white agenda have surely given many whites a circle-the-wagons mentality. Republicans need to look to this.

  8. Randolph Carter April 4, 2011 at 9:01 pm #

    “Simple arithmetic tells you that Hispanics and Asians vote more like whites than like blacks”

    Common sense tells you otherwise. Nixon won 60% of the vote in California in 1972; Obama won 60% of the vote in California in 2008. Demographics is destiny. Third world here we come!

  9. Anonymous April 4, 2011 at 9:04 pm #

    How about whites won’t want to live in or contribute to a country where the _legitimate privileges of being a majority_ are not assured them?

    How about a polarizing factor where the difference between everybody trusting nobody (Bowling Alone/Cultural Islanding) and ‘everybody hating whitey as the largets plurality’ is ZERO?

    How about the need for whites, ourselves the most divisive, self-hurting and ‘independent’ of racial groups to adopt the very tribal orientation _we are accused of_ as ‘racist’ block voting, just to stay in the game?

    How about the defeat in detail prospects of (perceived) ultraconservative groups, exploiting fear based real-politik to secure their own ‘market segment’ at the cost of further balkanizing partisanship among whites overall?

    How about a U.S. which cannot improve it’s position because we are a defaulted economy whose fiscal and thus social agenda comes from whatever ‘outside agency’ replaces national rule with Global Socialism?

    We live in a world which has betrayed us at every level, from the ignorant abroad who sought to exploit our kindness to assure their own position to our own politicians whose votes were purchased long before they announced their candidacy based on false platform promises.

    That every other race has an unquestioned homeland and has _ruined it_, except for whites should be at the forefront of our thoughts. Because the only way forward is to take a step back, technologically and by social status demands as resource needs. So that those few of us who still hold true to the dream may _separate_, before it’s too late.

    Countries and the political groups that define their rule don’t have shrouds, nations of people do.

  10. PatRiot April 4, 2011 at 10:10 pm #

    sbuffalonative: “Blacks are dreaming of a non-white coalition to take down the white man.”

    I grew up not too far from Buffalo, and it was a mantra of late 60s blacks that ALL nonwhite hated the white man and would glory in his destruction. Malcolm X preached that: he said the Japanese would harbor anti-white resentment for Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and would join with blacks, and I heard from blacks in college how the Chinese would take over half the US in a war, and that they would be favorable to the blacks. One guy said, upon that occurrence, “We’ll be sitting there, smilin.” (He who had a very pale white girl friend.) Anyway, they were all deluding themselves, as no Chinese or Japanese would ever consider them as anything more than convenient lackeys, never true partners or allies.

  11. ATBOTL April 5, 2011 at 2:46 am #

    Michael Barone is a long time shill for open borders.

  12. Kenelm Digby April 5, 2011 at 3:35 am #

    AS usual, Barone is talking garbage – I cannot understand why this man’s counsel is taken seriously.

    The point is this – American politics have degenerated into what is little more than a racial spoils system, with feudal-like characteristics.The appeal of the Democrats to blacks is obvious and immutable and needs not to be discussed further, also the appeal to the ‘feminista’ section of White women.But with ‘hispanics’, further analysis is necessary.Basically all the hispanics want is anything that benefits their own kind.Priority number 1, therefore are promises to even further dismantle such vestiges of immigration control that still exist, so that the maximum possible number of hispanics can immigrate into the USA.It really is as simple as that.

    Unlike Michael Barone, hispanics are, in fact, shrewd – at least where self-interest is concerned.They realise full well that despite the madness of George Bush II and the power of the big business lobby, the core bedrock vote of the Republicans (the people the party bigwigs despise and dump on)is viscerally opposed to further immigration.Furthermore they know full well that the Democrats are more or less open and guileless friends of immigration.

    Therefore, they will forever solidly vote Democrat.

  13. Anonymous April 5, 2011 at 5:47 am #

    4 — highduke wrote at 6:59 PM on April 4:

    “The more the GOP alligns itself with Tea Party values, the better it is for White Americans especially because they can rely on Hispanics & Asians. People who want the GOP to be for Whites only are either daft or trolling. Putin relies on non-Russian voters, even Muslims. US WNs need to learn that they can be WN & get the non-White vote too.”

    What are Tea Party values? I’ve only been to one but all I heard was the standard GOP boilerplate and it’s not conducive to White Nationalist interests with people saying things like “we’re a nation of immigrants and immigration is just fine as long as it’s legal.” You’ll get lots of nonwhites to vote for an agenda that keeps displacing us. Fiscal conservatism by itself is not going to save us from losing our country.

  14. gary April 5, 2011 at 9:05 am #

    Look at S. Africa and Zimbabwe (former Rhodesia) or any other African cuntry for that matter as a prime example of the absence of white people. That pretty much tells the whole story in my books. There’s a reason whites can build skyscrapers and fly to the moon while others left to their own devices can’t do much except blame whites for all their problems.

  15. Jack April 5, 2011 at 10:35 am #

    “Not if we assimilate newcomers, and if our two political parties adapt, as we and they have done in the past.”

    If we do this what’s the point?

    Adapting to them means being a third world dump.

  16. Anonymous April 5, 2011 at 12:51 pm #

    Michael Barone should panic if Whites become a minority because most Nonwhites that I meet think the Republican Party is racist. Also these same Nonwhites think Obama is doing an excellent job of running the country. If Nonwhites become the majority, the GOP will never win another presidential election again. The U.S will become a one party system where the Democrats dominate 99.99% of politics.

  17. Paul April 5, 2011 at 2:07 pm #

    Anonymous #13-

    Hopefully the “tea party” movement is simply trying to get their foot in the door with tax protests before tackling immigration and race. Most of the tea party members that I have talked with are concerned with immigration, at least behind closed doors.

    But maybe the leaders are too scared to ever deal with the issue.

  18. Anonymous April 5, 2011 at 2:12 pm #

    To post #13, I agree that most of the Tea Party folks are saying the ‘legal immigrant is ok’, however, I believe that most of them don’t mean it. They see the country they grew up in fading away and they don’t like it and they see exactly what immigration has done to this country and they don’t like it either. That is why the left tries so hard to pin them as racists (as if that is the worst thing you could be). I think we have to take this in baby steps. I am one for getting it all done now, but most people have been so brainwashed into thinking diversity that it will take some time to undo this disease.

    As far as fiscal conservatism, we here in Washington FINALLY cut our free health care to illegals. If this crazy liberal state can figure it out, then maybe the rest can, too. If we take away the free everything, many will leave and more will not even come – and this is a direct result of LESS MONEY/FISCAL CONSERVATISM.

    It is slow going, but it is a start. As someone who is sickened by the liberal diversity disease, I hate to wait, but if it brings more folks along to take it a bit slower, I will be happy for it. It will take many of us to undo decades of this disease.

  19. highduke April 5, 2011 at 2:16 pm #

    @ Anonymous 13 – Tea Party values are overt fiscal conservatism, their covert values are by default pro-White middle class, which attracts many non-Whites too. A racialist party will never get more than 2% of the vote considering the extent of White self-censorship Taylor reported so that disdain for non-Whites is being sublimated the only way White mainstream consciousness allows, while using minorities. Overt WN is for the elite. For now it’s suicide. The TP is a stepping stone to WN.

  20. Jay April 5, 2011 at 4:34 pm #

    Nothing left to do except to hunker down, hoard precious metals, send the kids to private schools, vote to eliminate ALL welfare and benefits in your local area, county, state and the country, buy land in the boondocks as an escape option, keep your kids away from ‘diversity’ at all costs and learn to hunt and farm, build a big wall, learn survival skills, throw out the TV and…WAIT.

  21. Anonymous April 5, 2011 at 4:36 pm #

    To be honest with you, and it’s extremely unfortunate, but I believe us White Americans are getting what we deserve. We have built a great western European nation over the centuries but our greed, foolishness and other character flaws have plagued this nation throughout its history and it looks like the road is now coming to an end. Let me explain…

    A big scar on the history of America is of course slavery. Due to our greedy desire for slave labor we are now forced to live with a large population of Africans indefinately. Now business owners (both small and large) are using slave, I mean, cheap labor by attracting illegals here with jobs and a standard of living that is orders of magnitude higher than what they have in their own nations (primarily Mexico). To make matters worse, on top of us greedily attracting 3rd world Hispanics to this country by the millions, the general public (who is footing the bill for the public services the illegals enjoy) doesn’t have the fortitude to stop this take over (and I don’t mean a bussiness, political or economic takeover, just a numerical takeover because mindless breeding requires no intelligance).

    The solution to this problem is easy, but I guarantee you the majority of Americans do not possess the will to enact this solution: First, every, and I mean EVERY illegal needs to be deported. This would cost hundreds of millions, but would be more than worth it. Secondly, very harsh laws need to be passed to prevent business owners from even thinking about hiring an illegal. If hiring an illegal means potentially loosing your business and going to jail, you wouldn’t even consider it, even if they’ll work for pennies. And third, even if there are no more jobs and prior deportation, there will still be traffic of illegal immigrants to this nation (via drug trafficing, staying with relatives and the fact that welfare in this country provides a higher standard of living than most 3rd world nations). To solve this there needs to be a wall that is closely monitored by armed guards and, like the Soviet Union at the Berlin wall, they won’t hesitate to shoot. When you are dealing with a desperate people who would risk anything to leave their failed nation, you have to take desperate measures.

    This is the 3 part solution. This will never happen. America is doomed.

  22. Anonymous April 5, 2011 at 5:33 pm #

    @18 Highduke,


    Overt WN is for the elite. For now it’s suicide. The TP is a stepping stone to WN.


    It will never work sir. You cannot create coalitions which ‘subsequently’ dump their partnership goals. There is too much inertia of momentum that scatters the focus from WN goals and too much top-weight of personalities that are used as intermediaries and will forever betray a switchover in midstream.

    Hitler got on board because Hindenberg hated Social Democrats more than he hated National Socialists and backed him, with less than 37% of the vote.

    Here, the problem is that the minorities and their crime once this economy crashes _will be_ the problem. How can you then be associated with the problem you have as a tentpole of your conservatism?

    You either have to get conservatives as a group together and forge the racial issue as an economic one _up front_.

    Or you have to put the WN cause into overdrive, working at state levels to shift your assets like chess pieces so that, when the time comes, you can declare and separate SNAP! like that, into a set of contiguous WSM states which have the assets and the military options to be a force to be reckoned with.

    The latter is the choice that has the best hope of victory because it operates outside the spotlight of official political parties and all the overlapping surveillance and interrogative position-taking that they are subject to.

    What bothers me is the supposition that all Elites are either crypto-WN in deep denial or completely globalist in their ‘hand that feeds me’ political alignments.

    I bet there are plenty of Warren Buffets with a David Duke view of reality that could be exploited to help this happen. I just don’t believe that we are reaching out to them because part of the brainwashing is to ‘believe in the system’ long after said system has shown it’s true, traitorous, colors.

    The Collapse is coming. There are bankers in the Global Top 10 who say it’s less than ten years away at current rates of additive debt and fiscal devaluation due to QE.

    We don’t have a lot of time sir, if we want to fight globalism on the other side of the USA we need to have something set up that can stand up _immediately_ after the fall…

  23. Wayne April 5, 2011 at 6:01 pm #

    I think poster #17 hit the nail on the head. At the core, the large majority of Tea Partiers feel thier country slipping away from them and thier decendants. At this time, they are afraid to come out against immigration, preferring to tackle government spending (which the TP uses as a codeword for welfare and foodstamps, free medical care, etc).

    This may be the best approach, even if they were up to taking on immigration toe-to-toe. The center of gravity of the leftist/anit-white/marxist powers is the collectivist wealth distribution schemes we’ve been sold over time. Take those away, and many of the people who have another country will go back to it.

  24. VikingManx April 5, 2011 at 7:05 pm #

    I was having some fun on the comments section of this article over on the washingtonexaminer sight, then they suddenly shut me down.

    I wonder why?

    Gotta love the Equality-Inquisition.

  25. rjf101 April 5, 2011 at 9:59 pm #

    Although I think a drastic increase in the minority population will obviously make it more difficult for the Republicans to win elections, I do have to agree with Barone when he says that migration trends often stop abruptly and probably never continue indefinately. Although current trends show whites becoming a minority by 2050, I think there is a good chance plenty will happen in the next forty years to change that. We need not worry too much.

  26. E April 6, 2011 at 9:33 pm #

    The GOP is no more for the interests of whites than the democrat party is. This article is based on the erroreneous assumption that the choises in american are anything but an illusion. If you want to vote for White interests, then vote A3P.

  27. Browser April 6, 2011 at 10:58 pm #

    25 — rjf101 wrote:

    I do have to agree with Barone when he says that migration trends often stop abruptly and probably never continue indefinately. Although current trends show whites becoming a minority by 2050, I think there is a good chance plenty will happen in the next forty years to change that. We need not worry too much.


    Oh, we needn’t?

    Sorry, I have to disagree with YOU.

    I’d rather worry now and be pleasantly surprised later, than settle back, doze off, and take it easy, only to be jolted awake by a horrible surprise later on.

    Doesn’t that seem the wiser course to take?

  28. Clytemnestra April 15, 2011 at 4:55 pm #

    I think the Republican Party has been at the root of all problems Whites have experienced ever since I can remember. Johnson could have never gotten his Great Society Nonsense off the ground had it been up to the Democrats alone. He had plenty of collusion from White Republicans who were too stupid to recognize that they would never get any credit for it from blacks, anyway.

    I think the Tea Party has already been co-opted by NeoCon Repugnants whose mantra seems to be that there is no amount to small to spend or war and who are open borders to boot. White Nationalists need to get busy infiltrating the Democrat Party, because they are street fighters who are all too familiar with the racial spoils system that is already afflicting our country.

    I believe the Tea Party activists are going to end up being very disillusioned when all is said and done. The year 2013 is going to be the SOS with all the Repugnants crossing the aisle to jump into bed with the Democrats. I believe that Whites are nothing more than the dupes to the Republicans. They blow them up with visible contempt after every election and go back to pandering to blacks and Mestizos.

    I believe the Democrats would fight for us if enough of us came back. It was Howard Dean who said he wanted the Nascar Dads with gun racks and Confederate flags in the back of their trucks. I wish poor, working-class and middle-class Whites would stop voting against their own interests for these White elite corporate fat Republicans who shipped all their jobs overseas and love illegal Mestizos even more than Democrats do.