Chris Roberts, American Renaissance, November 2020
Last month, I showed how Congressional districts with large Hispanic populations were not uniformly blue, and how places with “very few blacks, very few Asians, and [that] are predominantly white, Hispanic, and blue-collar” are all Republican or competitive. My examples were:
- Arizona’s 1st district: 1.3 percent black, 0.5 percent Asian, 51.7 percent white, 16.4 percent Hispanic, 22.6 percent American Indian, and 7.5 percent “other;” median income: $50,303. Since the 1990s, its congressional races have been very competitive, but it votes Republican every presidential cycle.
- Washington’s 4th district: 1.5 percent black, 1.8 percent Asian, 55.8 percent white, 39.8 percent Hispanic, and 2.7 percent American Indian; median income: $57,560. Solidly Republican.
- California’s 23rd district: 6.4 percent black, 4.9 percent Asian, 50.6 percent white, 35.5 percent Hispanic, and 1.7 percent American Indian; median income: $56,995. All of its races are competitive, so much so that in a given election year, it’s not uncommon for the district to vote Democrat in one race and Republican in another, such as in 2016, when Donald Trump comfortably won the presidential vote while Kamala Harris comfortably won the Senate vote.
- Texas’s 11th district: 4.1 percent black, 1.1 percent Asian, 56.2 percent white, and 38.1 percent Hispanic; median income: $55,237. Solidly Republican for 15 years.
- Texas’s 19th district: 6.1 percent black, 1.3 percent Asian, 54.2 percent white, 37.4 percent Hispanic, and 0.9 percent American Indian; median income: $48,590. Since the second half of the 1980s, it has had only Republican congressmen and votes overwhelmingly Republican for President.
- Texas’s 23rd district: 3.6 percent black, 1.6 percent Asian, 24.9 percent white, 68.3 percent Hispanic, and 1.3 percent American Indian; median income: $50,338. All of its races are competitive.
- Texas’s 27th district: 5.0 percent black, 1.5 percent Asian, 40.5 percent white, and 51.7 percent Hispanic; median income: $52,790. Solidly Republican.
The pattern held in 2020. All of these districts voted Republican in their Congressional races, except Arizona’s 1st district, which continued to be the outlier. Last night’s results:
- Arizona’s 1st: 52.3 Democrat, 47.7 Republican; with 86 percent of the vote tallied.
- Washington’s 4th: 64.8 Republican, 35.1 Democrat; with 98 percent of the vote tallied.
- California’s 23rd: 57.7 Republican, 42.3 Democrat; with 58 percent of the vote tallied.
- Texas’s 11th: 79.3 Republican, 18.8 Democrat; with 92 percent of the vote tallied.
- Texas’s 19th: 74.8 Republican, 22.8 Democrat; with 89 percent of the vote tallied.
- Texas’s 23rd: 50.1 Republican, 47.1 Democrat, 2.8 Libertarian; with 98 percent of the vote tallied.
- Texas’s 27th: 63.1 Republican, 34.9 Democrat, 2.0 Libertarian; with 90 percent of the vote tallied.
Democrats were especially hopeful in Texas’s 23rd because the Republican incumbent had retired, and the district is now over two thirds Hispanic. The Washington Post listed it as the most likely district to flip from red to blue this year. Democrats failed to consider how the Hispanics in this part of southwest Texas, like so many Hispanics, see themselves as white. According to Census data, the 23rd’s “Hispanic white” population is huge:
|Group||Population||Percent of Total|
The parties are “realigning” as the GOP becomes the party of the middle class and the Democrats become the party of the rich and the underclass. Hispanics who consider themselves white and have joined the middle class increasingly reject the Left’s elite/lumpenproletariat alliance. Biologically speaking, most of these Hispanics are not white, but in the face of competitive elections, white advocates needn’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
Hispanic voters per early 2020 exit polls:
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Biden +8
2016: Clinton +40
2020: Biden +25
2016: Clinton +41
2020: Biden +24
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2020