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Illegal Immigrant Population Declining

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Press Release, PRNewswire, July 30, 2009

WASHINGTON, July 30 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/—An analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies of monthly data collected by the Census Bureau shows that fewer illegal immigrants are coming and more are returning home. The findings also show that the legal immigrant population has not declined. As a result, the overall foreign-born population has held relatively steady. The report examines the extent to which stepped-up enforcement and the downturn in the economy account for this trend.

The report, “A Shifting Tide: Recent Trends in the Illegal Immigrant Population,” is written by Steven Camarota, the Center’s Director of Research, and Karen Jensenius, the Center’s Demographer. The report is at: http://cis.org/IllegalImmigration-ShiftingTide.

Among the findings:

* Our best estimate is that the illegal population declined 13.7 percent (1.7 million) from a peak of 12.5 million in the summer of 2007 to 10.8 million in the first quarter of 2009.

* If we compare the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, the implied decline is 1.3 million (10.9 percent). In just the last year the decline was 5.7 percent.

* By design, these estimates produce results similar to those from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). DHS estimates of the illegal population show a 1.5 percent decline between January 1, 2007, and January 1, 2008. Our estimates show a 1.6 percent decline over the same time period. DHS has not yet estimated the illegal population for January 2009.

* There is evidence that the number of new illegal immigrants arriving has fallen by about one-third in the last two years compared to earlier in this decade.

* There is also evidence that the number of illegal immigrants returning home has more than doubled in the last two years compared to earlier in this decade.

* While migration patterns have fundamentally changed, it must be remembered that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants have not left the country, and tens of thousands of new illegal immigrants continue to settle in the country each year.

* Our analysis shows that only the illegal immigrant population has declined. The legal immigrant population does not show the same decline. This is true overall and for Mexico specifically, the top illegal-immigrant-sending country.

* The fact that the legal immigrant population does not show the same decline is an indication that stepped-up enforcement has played a role.

* Another indication that enforcement has contributed to the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in the unemployment rate for illegal immigrants.

* While the decline began before unemployment among illegal immigrants rose, since then unemployment among illegal immigrants has increased dramatically and must now be playing a significant role in reducing their numbers.

* There is evidence that the illegal population rose in the summer of 2007, while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population quickly began a dramatic fall.

* There is no way to know if the current trend will continue. Given President Obama’s stated desire to legalize illegal immigrants and his backing away from enforcement efforts, it seems likely that when the economy recovers, the illegal population will resume its growth.

Discussion: These findings are consistent with anecdotal evidence. They are also consistent with data showing a decline in remittances sent home by immigrants. Additionally, they are in line with a drop in border apprehensions. The decline in the illegal population, whatever the cause, challenges the argument that illegal aliens are so firmly attached to their lives in this country that it is not possible to induce many of them to return home. The evidence indicates that this is not the case. If the current trend were to continue for another five years, it could cut the illegal population in half from its peak in the summary of 2007.

Methodology: This study uses monthly data from the Current Population Survey collected by the Census Bureau. The Department of Homeland Security, the former INS, and other outside research organizations have used Census Bureau data to estimate the illegal immigrant population. We examine trends in the number of foreign-born, less-educated, young, Hispanic immigrants. Prior research indicates that 80 percent of these individuals are in the country illegally. Please see the report itself for more detail.

[Editor’s Note: “A Shifting Tide: Recent Trends in the Illegal Immigrant Population,” by Steven A. Camarota and Karen Jesenius, can be read on-line or downloaded as a PDF file here.]

Original article

(Posted on July 30, 2009)

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Comments

1 — Flaxen-headed Strumpet wrote at 6:25 PM on July 30:

Among the findings:

* Our best estimate is that the illegal population declined 13.7 percent (1.7 million) from a peak of 12.5 million in the summer of 2007 to 10.8 million in the first quarter of 2009.

Who can believe this report? They’ve been saying 12 million illegal aliens in this country since the days of Bill Clinton.

2 — ranger wrote at 7:06 PM on July 30:

“Take away the jobs and they will go home—and enforcement works.”

As I’ve mentioned many times, it is our prosperity that has caused our downfall. If we were a mediocre homogeneous nation that held mostly protectionist values, trading with other countries only on those things necessary, but self-sufficient with all home-grown labor, none of the world’s rabble would be stepping over each other in order to get in any way they could.

We are being destroyed partly by the big shot corporate types who earn their 100 million bonuses for setting in place a branch overseas or a push for cheap illegal labor for their operations here.

History reveals to us that those nations steeped in greed for power and money have always failed. We are part of a vicious cycle that constantly plays itself out over and over again throughout the history of the world.

If there were a way to have a dynasty of near perfect humans who would be benign dictators, that would be the only system that would work. Freedom is excellent for intelligent, well-informed people, but it falls to corruption once the populace is controlled by the greed merchants, and there’s no way to prevent that under the system we now have.

Dissolution is the best answer. At least we will have a few generations of harmony and quality living before the corrupt demagogues take over.

We’ve been living on borrowed time for a long time now. Multiculturalism has accelerated the degenerative processes.

3 — fred wrote at 8:28 PM on July 30:

A recession is the best time to drive home illegal immigrant enforcement/reform because businesses aren’t pushing as hard for cheap labor and public sentiment is concerned about competition in a shrinking job market. It’s too bad that congress is more concerned with other things right now.

4 — sbuffalonative wrote at 9:42 PM on July 30:


“Illegal Immigrant Population Declining” Slightly, and For Now

Each recession we have will only result in driving down wages. People will become desperate to take any job at any pay and white males will be forced to compete for jobs against people who automatically move to the head of the line by viture of the “victim” index.

I don’t know what’s going to happen and when but something is going to give.

5 — feller wrote at 8:26 AM on July 31:

‘While migration patterns have fundamentally changed, it must be remembered that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants have not left the country, and tens of thousands of new illegal immigrants continue to settle in the country each year.’

Until the SAVE Act and other measures to mandate use of verification of legal residence by employers are implemented, we will suffer from the plague of leeches from the South.

Put someone in a max prison from the Marriott Family or a major food processor and you may make progrss. Otherwise, when the economy goes up a bit, the traitors in the management class will hire more illegals. Unemployed real Americans will continue to slide into total poverty.

And don’t forget Obamacare: the President and his gal pal Nancy can’t wait to provide full, free healthcare to every illegal immigrant. After all, we have compassionate leaders.

Maybe the drug dealers in Mexico will pay for our entire health care in return for open borders for drugs. Since we already have open borders for drugs, we can only benefit.

6 — TechnoDan wrote at 1:23 PM on July 31:

I couldn’t agree more with Ranger, and the rest of the comments here. I would only add that, like Flaxen-headed Strumpet, the immigration numbers are as cooked as the unemployment ones. If we had 12 million illegals under Clinton, and a million or so have been crossing the border and not going home per year since, plus all their “anchor babies”, we have 30-40 million at least, either illegal or uninvited. Talk about an invasion!

7 — Anonymous wrote at 1:09 AM on August 1:

I wish there were some way to independently verify this because I’m more than a little skeptical. Twice they’ve tried to ram the amnesty down our throats and twice they’ve failed. Now they say they’re concentrating on enforcement but at the local level I haven’t noticed anything different. At the local level there’s just as many illegals where I live and the numbers look to me like they’re growing. They just opened another run down looking Mexican restaurant for all the illegal patrons.

8 — Anonymous wrote at 4:43 PM on August 2:

I say take away the illegals and the jobs will come back. I say deport all imported foreign workers and the jobs will come back. I say outlaw the importation of Western goods manufactured in China and the jobs will come back. I say outlaw the use of foreign nationals doing back office work and the jobs will come back. I say impeach every politician who fails to legislate in favor of the American worker and the jobs will come back. And I say fine every domestic businessman who employs aliens and the jobs will come back. Everything the Globalists have done against our country can be reversed if we hold our politicians accountable for their treachery…

9 — The Bobster wrote at 11:00 AM on August 5:

http://www.vdare.com/awall/090803_memo.htm

On July 22nd, 2009, the Pew Hispanic Center report released a report entitled Mexican Immigrants: How Many Come? How Many Leave? , by Jeffrey S. Passel and D´Vera Cohn.

This document concludes that immigration from Mexico has decreased:

“Immigration from Mexico to the U.S., especially unauthorized immigration, began to drop off in mid-2006, and that pattern has continued into 2009…”

On the other hand, the report indicated no great net exodus of Mexicans from the U.S.: “Recent data from U.S. and Mexican population surveys provide no evidence that an increased number of immigrants have left the United States to return to Mexico since 2006.”

It appears then that a lot of Mexicans are staying here despite the economic downturn (after all, there’s an economic downturn in Mexico also).

And that leads us to another bizarre development. It’s even been reported that some Mexicans in the U.S. are now receiving remittances from their families in Mexico.

Yeah, you read that right. Here’s an excerpt from the article More Mexicans Are Sending Money to Help Out Relatives in the U.S. [AlterNet, July 23rd, 2009]:

“For decades, money sent home by Mexicans working in the United States has been a key pillar of the Mexican economy. Now, scattered reports are surfacing of Mexicans sending money to support relatives in the United States hard hit by the economic crisis north of the border…According to Chihuahua state tourism department official Demetrio Sotomayor Cuellar, a 21 percent decrease over last year in the number of ‘paisanos’ [Mexican immigrants traveling home for visits] crossing the Chihuahua border from June 26 to July 14 led officials to investigate the visitor drop. In the course of the probe, Sotomayor said, officials ran across unusual reports in the hands of Mexico’s Interior Ministry. Much to their surprise, officials learned that some Mexicans were financially sustaining their migrant relatives in the United States. ‘This was something that was never seen before and now it is,’ Sotomayor said. ‘Family members who are employed in Mexico are sending money to those relatives who are unemployed in the United States.’ “

Maybe the family is Mexico considers this an investment in their future. They don’t want their invader relatives to leave the U.S. if there is even a hint of amnesty in the air.


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