ICE Immigration Enforcement Has Harmed U.S. Workers, Research Shows

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Under the Trump administration, ICE and Border Patrol agents surged into Minneapolis, Los Angeles and other major cities. Economists Chloe N. East and Elizabeth Cox at the University of Colorado Boulder examined the impact of immigration enforcement actions in a new paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. While immigration enforcement has increased nationwide during the Trump administration, the researchers compared areas that “experienced a sudden, large increase in ICE arrests” to places that did not.

One research finding is unsurprising: Among individuals identified as likely undocumented immigrants not physically removed from the labor market, ICE activity produced a “chilling effect” of interacting with ICE, leading to a 4% reduction in employment. According to the research, in an average area, approximately six undocumented immigrants dropped out of the labor force for every one ICE arrest. That may help explain why employers often express difficulties in finding workers well beyond the number of people arrested or deported.

The research finds ICE arrests have not helped and, indeed, likely harmed U.S.-born workers, including those with a high school education or less. “There is a negative and significant impact on employment of U.S.-born male workers with at most a high-school education, who work in likely affected sectors,” according to the study. “This is consistent with a model where undocumented immigrants and U.S.-born workers are complements, rather than substitutes for each other in the labor market.”

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in February 2026 a decline of 1,008,000 foreign-born workers since a peak in March 2025, according to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis. “There is no evidence that U.S.-born workers have benefited from the decline in the number of foreign-born workers,” NFAP notes. “The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers was 4.7% in February 2026 compared to 4.4% in February 2025.” U.S. workers have not reentered the labor market in response to fewer foreign-born workers. The labor force participation rate for the U.S.-born aged 16 and older dropped from 61.4% in February 2025 to 61.0% in February 2026.

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