Pew Research: Hispanics to Outpace Black Americans as Largest Voting Minority in 2020

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Pew Research Center projections predict that Hispanic American voters will now be the largest voting minority in the 2020 presidential election, passing black American voters for the first time in United States history. Hispanics have been the largest minority group in the U.S. since 2003.

In total, Pew predicts that the number of eligible Hispanic voters in 2020 will tick up to a record 13.3 percent of the entire American electorate, while eligible black American voters will make up about 12.5 percent of the electorate.

This translates to about 32 million Hispanics who will be eligible to vote in the 2020 election and about 30 million eligible black American voters.

While the Hispanic, black American, and Asian eligible voting populations have all increased since 2000, the number of eligible white Americans has decreased as a total share of the U.S. electorate.

In the year 2000, white Americans made up about 76.4 percent of the electorate. By 2020, Pew Research suggests white Americans will make up 66.7 percent of the electorate, a nearly ten percent drop over the course of two decades.

Meanwhile, eligible Hispanic voters have boomed in the last two decades — expected to nearly double their voting share of the electorate by 2020. Black Americans, on the other hand, are projected to have only increased their voting share of the electorate by about one percent since 2000.

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The new foreign-born voter population to be added over the next 20 years is more than three times the number of American births every year and nearly double the population of New York City, New York.

{snip} Foreign-born voters, as research by Axios, the New York Times, and Ronald Brownstein has confirmed, are more likely than native-born Americans to vote for Democrats.

Brownstein’s research concludes that Democrats win about 90 percent of congressional districts that have foreign-born populations above the national average. This suggests that any district with a foreign-born population larger than 14 percent has a 90 percent chance of electing a Democrat over a Republican.

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For example, among native-born Americans, Trump won 49 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent, according to exit polling data. Among foreign-born residents, Clinton dominated against Trump, garnering 64 percent of the immigrant population’s vote compared to Trump’s mere 31 percent.

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