With Fewer New Arrivals, Census Lowers Hispanic Population Projections

Jens Manuel Krogstad, Pew Research, December 16, 2014

The Hispanic population is expected to reach about 106 million in 2050, about double what it is today, according to new U.S. Census Bureau population projections. But the new Hispanic population projection for 2050 is lower–by nearly 30 million–than earlier population projections published by the bureau.

The nation’s Hispanic population has been one of its fastest growing in recent decades. Since 1970, the Hispanic population has grown 592%, largely because of the arrival of new immigrants from Latin America–especially Mexico. By comparison, the U.S. population overall has grown 56% over the same period. Between 2000 and 2010 alone, Hispanics made up more than half of U.S. population growth.

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What caused 2050’s projected Hispanic population to decline? Toward the end of the 2000s, immigration from Latin America began to stagnate. The growth in the number of Latino immigrants began to stall in 2008. Since then, Asians have been the single largest group of new immigrants arriving in the U.S.

The Census Bureau now projects the Hispanic immigrant population to grow by 57% from 2015 to 2050. That’s lower than a 2008 Pew Research Center projection that had estimated 91% growth over the same period.

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