Could Non-Citizens Decide the November Election?

Jesse Richman and David Earnest, Washington Post, October 24, 2014

Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens? Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor and minority voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.

In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non-citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.

Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

We also find that one of the favorite policies advocated by conservatives to prevent voter fraud appears strikingly ineffective. Nearly three quarters of the non-citizens who indicated they were asked to provide photo identification at the polls claimed to have subsequently voted.

{snip}

There are obvious limitations to our research, which one should take account of when interpreting the results. Although the CCES sample is large, the non-citizen portion of the sample is modest, with the attendant uncertainty associated with sampling error. We analyze only 828 self-reported non-citizens. Self-reports of citizen status might also be a source of error, although the appendix of our paper shows that the racial, geographic, and attitudinal characteristics of non-citizens (and non-citizen voters) are consistent with their self-reported status.

{snip}

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  • Dave4088

    That voter fraud is being admitted by a left wing rag like WaPo should force everyone to sit up and take notice. At least now we know why many states have passed voter ID laws and why the radical, anti-white left is working so tirelessly to legally challenge and undermine these laws.

    • SentryattheGate

      Check out this site, United We Dream; they advocate for illegals and urge them to vote! https://www.faceboo(DOT)com/UnitedWeDream

      • me

        “We all Amerika now, gringo!” It’s enough to make you puke. Those leftist/socialist/globalists that are behind this need to get a terminal case of ebola. Hell’s too good for them.

  • Non-citizens could not vote without the cooperation of a corrupt federal judiciary and Democrat politicians who oppose such simple measures as voter ID laws. The entire system is corrupt. American Revolution 2.0 must be launched and the corruption rooted out. If not, the white race will be bled dry and then softly exterminated at first, then pushed to extinction by more violent means.

    • Stan D Mute

      News flash! We have already been bled dry. We owe a debt so monstrous that there isn’t a shred of hope we might ever repay it. Our trade deficit has taken another 10 trillion from us and sent it to Europe and Asia. America is a bankrupt wreck completely owned by outside interests. Our only faint hope would be to shred our economy completely. But can you really imagine that? Nobody would own anything. Squatters would rule. Complete chaos and anarchy. So it must go the other way with a military junta and then declaration the national treasury is insolvent. Messy yes, but some order must be maintained for us to begin anew.

      • I was an economist for 30 years. There’s a specialty area on national debt defaults that I’m not familiar with.

        Banana republics default, then reboot, but like I said, I don’t know how it works. Detroit provides an example at the local level. So long as the US dollar continues to be forced on the world as the petrodollar currency the system can keep going. Putin would like to end that system. That’s why the US is sanctioning him. It’s not really the Ukraine, but Putin’s interest in bringing down the dollar and US power along with it.

        Whites can get this country rebooted after a default, but unless the system changes, blacks and browns will take it down again in the future.

    • SentryattheGate

      My small southern city has, for years now, had Downtown Latino events where the Demoncat party registered many Latrinos to vote. No ID was ever shown. I asked and the Demoncats called the police over, saying I was creating a disturbance. The police sympathized with me, after all, they are on the front lines of fighting crime (much of it Latrino), but told me that illegals have access to such well-made forged documents that police are fooled by them! When I asked the Supervisor of Elections if her office checked citizenship status of voters, she was perturbed at me and said, “No we don’t, but if you know of any illegals that registered, give me their name and address.” I replied that I don’t know these people! I talked to the local Republican Executive Committee about this and learned that the Supervisors of Elections are under the jurisdiction of the state, which DOES NOT REQUIRE CITIZENSHIP TO BE CHECKED! WHY NOT? WHO is looking out for US?

  • Truthseeker

    Another success story for democracy!

  • MekongDelta69

    “We dun need no steenkin’ ID.”

    • SentryattheGate

      Apparently they don’t need no steenkin’ ID; they drive and fly w/o it, they vote w/o it, they get their kids in school w/o it. Those of you who had to fight that awful Vietnam war, it must be even more disgusting to see this invasion!

  • DD-762

    What frightens me most about this news story is that it comes from the Washington Post.

  • Lewis33

    “Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens?”

    “God we hope so!”-Washington Post editorial board.

  • We already knew this. We’ve know for years that illegal aliens have been voting. Our voter fraud prevention and prosecution safeguards are so insanely weak bordering on non-existent (hint: A certain political party wants it that way), and motor-voter and welfare office-voter make sure they get registered.

    This is why arguing over an amnesty bill, whether or not the quasi-legalized illegal aliens should or should not get citizenship and how quickly it should happen, is moot. If they’re here, they’ll be able to register to vote somewhere, and if they’re voting, they might as well be citizens even if they’re not.

    One more thing: When you hear an apologist for voter fraud yap on about how rare it is, here’s how you body slam them into the ground: Agree with them, using this analogy: Candidate A gets 1,000,000 legitimate votes, Candidate B gets 999,999 legitimate votes, two fraudulent votes are cast for Candidate B. Therefore, fraudulent votes are only 0.0001% of all votes. Ba dap boo boom…

  • Luca

    Democrats use every dirty trick in the book. Alinsky would be proud since he wrote the book.

    • Ultimate187

      Republicans in power aren’t much better than Democrats with regards to things that are important to white nationalism. For some reason people have gotten the impression that they are.

      • Luca

        They are the lesser of two evils.

        • Stan D Mute

          And the lesser of two evils is what?

          It’s like a choice between being dismembered alive or being boiled alive. Choose one.

          Both parties are evil. Both want to see our grandchildren enslaved to negroes and mesoamerican indians. And you would choose the “lesser” of them? I’d argue it’s more humane to kill us quickly than to force us to linger in misery.

          • me

            There’s a third alternative…..think of storming the Bastille.

        • Charles Martel

          The Republicans are just moderate liberals they won’t stand for the American people but they are much more preferable to the Democrats.

  • dd121

    Getting people to show an identity card to vote is not about Republicans trying to suppress the minority vote, it’s about trying to prevent massive voter fraud. Just one more battle the Republicans don’t have the stomach to fight.

    • GeneticsareDestiny

      Anyone who has ever spent time around minorities (the legal citizen ones) knows that they have no trouble getting state IDs. They use them for everything: buying alcohol, driving, renting an apartment, signing up for government services (welfare included), etc. I’ve never met a minority who genuinely couldn’t get an ID because of the cost.

      However, I do think it’d be a smart idea for the Republicans to support simply giving out free voter IDs to all legitimate citizens over the age of 18 who don’t have a state ID/driver’s license yet. It would cost money, but I think it’s worth it to guarantee that elections are free of fraud. And it would force the Democrats into a corner where they no longer have the cost argument against implementing mandatory voter ID checks prior to letting people vote.

      Of course, they’d still oppose voter ID laws, but their true goal of allowing everyone in the world to vote in American elections would be unmasked for the public to see freely and they’d lose support.

      • antiquesunlight

        You already can get free voter IDs, at least in Georgia. That doesn’t stop retarded liberals from screaming about racism.

      • dd121

        A lot of elections in this country are decided by less than 1% of the vote. If you have thousands of democrats going to vote in 30 different polling stations the whole system is corrupted.

    • M&S

      Republicans want the NAU. It’s the ‘next big step in marketing’ as unification of the Western Hemisphere on the way to World Government.
      Just like it is most likely European Union SOF who are pushing the Ukrainians into a civil war they don’t really want so that they can finally end Russia as an independent, non-Euronized (Euthanized?) power to their East.
      The more you have, the more resources you command and the more population is available to class-stratify into self-sabotaging peon competitors.
      All of which white racist majority of the U.S. would rightly recognize as the death of our national system of privileges as the end of real sovereign states.
      The Republicans are in the pond with the gators, up their pits. It is the _ONLY_ explanation for why they haven’t used this 60-80% voter swing topic to buy themselves an election by _crushing_ the Democrats in their blatant corruption.
      Big One is right. There is no ‘pure’ group in politics. They all must go and the only way to make it clear what the consequences are is to demand a Constitutional Convention and then, in the wake of it’s corruption, begin to draw back and secede.
      White K-Breeders who give a damn about generations hence will _not_ survive interaction with brown R-Breeders who use Horde tactics to squat and own, by numbers but have no clue what to do when they are just another Mexico as overpopulated, low intelligence, third world, Failed State.
      They literally do not see the connection between race and society that we do.

      • me

        Of course they do. They know exactly what they’re doing. This is by design, and it’s more than what meets the eye.

  • Anglo

    “Self-reports of citizen status” ? This is what the Board of Registrars depend on when registering people to vote? self-reports of citizenship? I was wondering how non-citizens got registered to vote.

  • George Costanza

    It’s obvious that we are fighting a “cold” civil war…

  • Anna Tree

    Actually officials in Seattle found yet a “better” way: they just stated that the word “citizen” was offending non-citizens and so like brown bag, or illegal, shouldn’t be used.

    “City officials in Seattle are suggesting that government workers avoid using words like “citizen” and “brown bag” because they might be considered offensive, according to an internal memo reported by KOMO-TV.
    “Luckily, we’ve got options,” Elliott Bronstein of the Office for Civil Rights reportedly wrote in the memo. “For ‘citizens,’ how about ‘residents?’”
    As for “brown bag” lunches, Bronstein said “it used to be a way people could judge skin color.””

    • MannyR

      Seattle is a city full of degenerate fools who are literally more concerned with sodomy and helping drug addicted homeless layabouts than having a functioning city or Police department. Nothing our queer mayor or our pot smoking city council does surprises me anymore.

      • Who Me?

        You said it better than I could. Also there are so many libtards living in the Seattle-to-Portland coastal strip, that they overwhelm the votes of the mostly conservative voters in the eastern 2/3rds of the state. This effectively turns Washington into a blue state, where the rest of us have to labor on under mostly insane Nanny rule.To add insult to injury, all the tax monies go into the same pot, and then the pot of gold is doled out to the coastal cities while our inland infrastructure rots. The best thing I can come up with is bomb them all into the water.

        • Stan D Mute

          Seattle and Spokane are even more different than Boulder and Colorado Springs. It’s hard to imagine them in the same country let alone the same state. Spokane should secede and join Idaho.

        • antiquesunlight

          Yes. I visited Oregon some years ago and was shocked (but happy) to learn that most people outside of Portland were about as conservative as I was. It’s not too dissimilar to our situation here in Georgia with Atlanta as a giant blue dot in the state.

        • MannyR

          Yes indeed and what I love is when I voice my displeasure with the idiot Democrat rule of King county and the state itself I get some liberal telling me to move back to ” whatever red state I’m from”. Apparently Crown Hill is considered a red state now.

    • phillyguy

      I never knew so many idiots resided in one place, Seattle is just as bad as New York

  • John

    Could this be wishful thinking on the part of the WP? For a fact, when I first registered to vote in the 7th district of VA (the one that recently gave Eric Cantor the boot. Yes!) I went down to the country courthouse armed with all sorts of documentation. Driver’s license, health card, credit cards, recent bills and my SS card and the (black) girl behind the counter was satisfied with me verbally telling her my mailing address and didn’t ask for any of them. This personal experience aside, voter fraud is a huge problem but I vote every election for what it’s worth, and I don’t recall ever seeing a single “hispanic” person at the polls around here. Believe me, there’s a bunch of them in this area too, unfortunately. Even so, their turnout is low to begin with, just like the blacks, regardless of their absolute % of the population. Will they tip the election whether legal or not? I don’t think so. I think whites, legal voter all, are going to turn out in record numbers for an off year election and do their best to vote out anyone that’s pro amnesty. Maybe even the black’s will wise up and realize that to do so is also in their collective interests. But doubtful.

    • Who Me?

      We vote by mail here exclusively. Everybody, the whole state. If you have a driver’s license they mail you a ballot. And yes, you are legally allowed to get a driver’s license if you are illegal, and some of them do. So they vote too. No questions asked.
      You know Maria and Pedro and Miguel and Rosa sit down and carefully study the voter’s pamphlet and pick who will do a better job of leading our state for the next few years…NOT! They see, “R is bad. D is good and hands out more gibsmedats.”
      That’s all they know or care about.
      Hispanics (legal and illegal both) use as much or more taxpayer generated revenue than blacks, plus there are more of them.

  • IKUredux

    I don’t know, but, how many people voted for the Revolution? You know, the one declared in 1776? Sometimes, votes are unnecessary.

  • Alexandra1973

    As if they haven’t decided previous elections. I bet you they have.

    • Ringo Lennon

      You’re ancestors were on the right side of history.

  • JInSanD

    Don’t forget that the children of illegals are also “legally” voting when they actually should be deported.

  • MannyR

    Articles like this that ask whether or not voter fraud is an issue do nothing but waste time. Of course voter fraud is a serious issue. Al Frankenstein was reelected by just 300 or so votes in an election where is was proven democrats voted multiple times, dead persons voted, etc… We need to stop playing this debate game with the left. We bring up serious issues facing the country that need to be dealt with and then we spend the next 30 years on Meet the Press, Fox News debating their validity. We need to get into power and start passing laws that fix the issues. Who’s cares what the independents think.

  • Connie Dung

    They are taking our money at gunpoint and giving it to our enemies who kill us by driving drunk, playing the “knockout game,” committing “robberies gone bad,” or otherwise kill us in “the wrong place at the wrong time” like in our homes in our own country. Everytime we vote, our vote is ruled unconstitutional. If republicans win the House and Senate, will that be declared unconstitutional also? Should they finally impeach and convict the black b a s t a r d, will that be unconstitutional?
    They are taking our money, our jobs, our homes, our churches, our sermons, our prayers, our bibles, our crosses, our bathrooms, our families, our lives, and our votes. They want our guns. When will we finally let them have our bullets? Our founding patriots endured far less!

  • Connie Dung

    Everyone quit your jobs and get as many “entitlements” as you can. Register to vote as a Democrat under 100 or 1000 different Mexican names at your address and vote Republican.

    • meanqueen

      Genius!

    • me

      There’s a solution for this. Quit paying taxes, go in the dole, apply for any and every free benefit possible, and claim that you’re a White Hispanic Latino on the application. What are they going to do when all of us stupid Whites refuse to be milked any longer?

  • IstvanIN

    Amazing how the majority of White Democrats have NO morals whatsoever and will do anything to advance their cause.

    • Stan D Mute

      Not that amazing when you consider they’re fanatics. They fervently believe that we are Nazis, that we are embodiments of pure evil, and thus must be defeated (destroyed) at any cost. Their politics are their religion and they are religious fanatics just like the jihadis who will blow themselves up. Look at their faces, look into their eyes, when they’re in the throes of a rally against racism or a rally for rights of transgendered men who wear bunny costumes or whatever. It’s the same expression of religious fanaticism you see in Muslims as they flail themselves bloody.

      So cheating at the polls? You betcha. Replacing evil white men with mexicans? Always. They’d murder us if they could – whether they could get away with it or not.

      • phillyguy

        Let them try to murder me

  • RacialRay

    Despite the obvious horrors of giving non-citizens the privilege of voting, could they do any worse than ‘we the people’ did in the last two presidential elections? And I am still reeling from my fellow New Yorkers voting that carpet(munching)-bagger Hillary Clittin’ into office as our senator years back.

    Nothing in American politics surprises me anymore. Nothing.

    • JBP

      Yes the legal population is bad enough. But you can’t honestly deny that immigrants from down south and from muzzy-land aren’t immensely worstest!

  • Charles Martel

    How long will the American people stand for the Obola administration and their importation of illegal votes.
    Impeach Obama!