In the Long Run, Is the GOP Dead?

Pat Buchanan, Townhall, July 27, 2012


In his New York Times report, “In California, GOP Fights Steep Decline,” Adam Nagourney delves into the reasons [there is despair about the GOP’s long-term future].

In the Golden Land, a state Nixon carried all five times he was on a national ticket and Reagan carried by landslides all four times he ran, the GOP does not hold a single statewide office. It gained not a single House seat in the 2010 landslide. Party registration has fallen to 30 percent of the California electorate and is steadily sinking.

Why? It is said that California Republicans are too out of touch, too socially conservative on issues like right-to-life and gay rights. {snip}

Race, age and ethnicity are at the heart of the problem. And they portend not only the party’s death in California, but perhaps its destiny in the rest of America.

Consider. Almost 90 percent of all Republican voters in presidential elections are white. Almost 90 percent are Christians. But whites fell to 74 percent of the electorate in 2008 and were only 64 percent of the population. Christians are down to 75 percent of the population from 85 in 1990. The falloff continues and is greatest among the young.

Consider ethnicity. Hispanics were 15 percent of the U.S. population in 2008 and 7.4 percent of the electorate. Both percentages will inexorably rise.

Yet in their best years, like 2004, Republicans lose the Hispanic vote 3-to-2. In bad years, like 2008, they lose it 2-to-1. Whites are already a minority in California, and Hispanics will eventually become the majority.

Say goodbye to the Golden Land.

Asian-Americans voted 3-to-2 for Obama, black Americans 24-to-1. The Asian population in California and the nation is growing rapidly. The black population, 13 percent of the nation, is growing steadily.

Whites, already a minority in our two most populous states, will be less than half the U.S. population by 2041 and a minority in 10 states by 2020.


{snip} Whites have become a minority in Texas. When Texas goes, America goes.

This year could be the last hurrah.

The GOP must work harder to win Hispanic votes, we are told. But consider the home economics and self-interest of Hispanics.

Half of all U.S. wage-earners pay no income tax. Yet that half and their families receive free education K-12, Medicaid, rent supplements, food stamps, earned income tax credits, Pell grants, welfare payments, unemployment checks and other benefits.

Why should poor, working- and middle-class Hispanics, the vast majority, vote for a party that will reduce taxes they don’t pay, but cut the benefits they do receive?

The majority of Latinos, African-Americans, immigrants and young people 18 to 25 pay no income taxes yet enjoy a panoply of government benefits. Does not self-interest dictate a vote for the party that will let them keep what they have and perhaps give them more, rather than the party that will pare back what they now receive?

What are the historic blunders of the Grand Old Party that may yet appear on the autopsy report as probable causes of death?

First, the party, intimidated by name-calling, refused to stop a tidal wave of immigration that brought 40 million people here whose families depend heavily on government. {snip}

Republicans acquiesced in the importation of a new electorate that may provide the decisive votes to send the party to the ash heap of history.

Second, Republicans, when enacting tax cuts, repeatedly dropped millions of taxpayers off the rolls, creating a huge class that contributes little to pay for the expanding cornucopia of benefits it receives.

Third, the social revolution of the 1960s captured the culture and converted much of the nation. According to a new Pew poll, the number of Americans who profess a belief in no religion at all has tripled since the 1990s and is now one in five of our countrymen.


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  • While this article is mostly about race on a website devoted to race issues, I don’t think this point can be understood well enough:

    Second, Republicans, when enacting tax cuts, repeatedly dropped millions
    of taxpayers off the rolls, creating a huge class that contributes
    little to pay for the expanding cornucopia of benefits it receives.

    The more working people you exempt from tax liability, (and in fact, you give them negative liability via the EITC), the less tax issues matter to voters.  I am of the opinion that out of pure principle, everyone who works should have some positive net tax liability, even if it’s only a small percentage of their total income.

    • alastairabbacle

      I agree. All tax payers should have at least a proportionate tax liability, otherwise benefits get out of hand. is exciting, is that Rush Limbaugh made this very same point on his show.  He even brought of this above article by Pat Buchanan, and quoted it at length.  While I do not think Rush Limbaugh is an AmRen reader, I believe that increasing amounts of Republicans are pushing the “equal OPPORTUNITY ” under the law talking point.    “Equal opportunity for PURSUIT of happiness”, I must emphasize.  It is the pursuit that is  important, and many Blacks and Latinos simply do not pursue happiness in terms of material wealth with the same vigor as Whites.The idea that unequal outcome does not mean unequal opportunity is becoming a mainstream talking point.  I think many Republicans are race realists, but can’t talk in this way.  There are ways to endorse race realist outcomes and policies, without mentioning race.

      One way to do this is to discuss the idea of “cultural problems in the Black community”, of which there are many.  Blacks would certainly do BETTER without the cultural rot that has been allowed to occur to their communities.  Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, and others all do this.

      The other way to be a race realist, but not openly, is to discuss this idea that people should be judged on the CONTENT OF THEIR CHARACTER, not on the color of your skin.  It is really easy to turn the tables on leftist affirmative action types, by saying that they are “obsessed by the color skin.”  Which is true.  We race realists would prefer communities be left alone to achieve standards appropriate to their culture.  We are only forced to be obsessed by race by the leftists.

      Here is a link to Rush Limbaugh discussing this: 

      Rush Limbaugh:
      “It’s all laughable anyway.  It illustrates how these people, they run around and they call all of us racists.  They’re obsessed with skin color.  They’re obsessed with the symbolism of it.  They are obsessed with things that have nothing to do with who a person really is.  They don’t care to find out who Obama really is.  And if they were to find out who Obama really is, they don’t care to tell us if it would not help his reelection effort.  So they gotta focus on all this surface, meaningless stuff.  ”

      Rush Limbaugh:  He knows

      •  While we’re on that subject (sorta):

        Let’s assume that these kids do 6 hours of school a day, 5 days a week.  There are 4.3333… weeks in a month on average.  That works out to $682.50 a month to be “paid” for going to school.  I would say before taxes, but I doubt they’ll made deductions on these rugrats’ “wages.”

        Question:  I bet most of these kids’ parents are collecting one form of welfare or another.  Will these “wages” count against that and reduce them proportionally at least during the summer school time?  Easy answer:  No.

        • alastairabbacle

          How far we have fallen, this is unbelievable!

          “The District is paying 305 students with poor academic and behavioral records to attend summer school, The Washington Examiner has learned.

          The rising ninth-graders are earning $5.25 an hour to participate in the “Summer Bridge” program, which targets students identified by D.C. Public Schools as less likely than their peers to graduate high school within four years.”

          The thing is, with the dregs of Black society they have to teach, not much else will work given current cultural conditions……

          The project to send the Black people to the educational moon continues ….

          The Cost of the Moon Race: $100 Billion to Land on the Moon
          The Cost of the Black Race: Priceless

          • The__Bobster

            Government is the only institution that pays people to fail. The greater the failure, the greater the reimbursement.

          • alastairabbacle

            The government has also deflated the negative consequences of female attraction to cads. Cads win, dads lose.
            From Chateau Heartiste (Roissy):

            “Compassion Creates More Cads:
            I have a theory. Here it is:

            The welfare state has created more pump and dumpers.

            I only have casual observation, not hard data, to back up my theory. I base it on the exponential increase in the past ten years of businesses teaching pickup skills to men. These are real businesses with satisfied clientele who pay in the thousands for weekend seminars and “boot camps” to learn how to turn women on.

            Bleeding heart compassion has cursed blessed the country with layers of safety nets that subvert the natural cleansing of losers from contributing to the next generation. The result of all this government largesse is the substitution of handouts for husbands. When provider males who are predisposed to marry and support a family are worth less on the market than they used to be they are slowly replaced by playboys taking advantage of the sexual climate. Women who have their security needs met by Big Government (in combination with their own economic empowerment) begin to favor their desire for sexy, noncommital alpha males at the expense of their attraction for men who will foot the bills”

  • JustaWhiteMom

    Hey folks, help me shut down these anti-whites at this link:

    • NM156

      I threw in my 2 cents. Over the past decade, I’ve thrown in countless 2 cent contributions on endless numbers of message boards and news comment sections. Those 2 cents times tens of thousands should be adding up to a substantial amount by now. I hope the effort has had some small impact.

  • The Republican Party will just have to die, then.  And, according to the laws of physics, a new second party will rise up.   What that party will look like,  I don’t know.  I guess look at the two main parties in Mexico and South America for a hint to what our two-party system will look like.

  • In the Long Run it matters not that the GOP is dead because in the Long Run (if the current trends continue) the USA will be dead.  There is no need to fret about 2040 or 2050 when the USA will supposedly become Mexico.  There are so many variables that will take place between now and then.  I personally will be surprised if the US lasts longer than a few more years in its’ current state.  There is just too much weight resting upon a foundation build out of a deck of cards.

    • Epiminondas

      Agreed. A multicultural welfare state is by definition headed toward ruin.  And when the moment of truth arrives and the government checks bounce, that will be the end of this liberal experiment.  

    • NM156

      You are correct, and the rectification will begin next year. Anyone who thinks that the massive debt crisis in the EU and the USA ended in 2009 is delusional. Next year will be the end of four years of economic cliffhangers and musical chairs. The end is coming soon. No doubt about that.

    • Bon, From the Land of Babble

      “In the Long Run, We’re All Dead”

      –John Maynard Keyes


  • The Republican Party died a long time ago. What we now need is a White Nationalist party to undue the damage done over the past 50 years to White Americans, while the GOP stood by and did nothing!

    • Epiminondas

      And the son of the man who was most intent on doing that damage is now poised to lead the Republican party.  George Romney destroyed his own state, presided over the destruction of our school system nationwide, and never, ever even had a clue about the damage he had done while serving as Nixon’s HEW secretary.  His son, Mitt, reveres his memory.  I think everyone here knows what is coming.

      • holyflower

        “George Romney destroyed his own state, presided over the destruction of our school system nationwide, and never, ever even had a clue about the damage he had done while serving as Nixon’s HEW secretary.”

        A few details about each of the these projects of the senior Romney would be helpful.  Thanks in advance, Epiminondas.

    • Realist

      And with whites already a minority in California, Hawaii and New Mexico — and destined to become a minority nationawide by 2041 — , how to you suppose this White Nationalist Party is going to win elections?

      • I can help you answer your own question, by helping you out with semantics. “Country” and “nation” are not the same thing. Think it through.

  • Some people work for a living and some people vote for a living.

    There is a war being waged on white, heterosexual, Christian, males and the liberals are leading the charge. Their political  slogan is: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”. If you’re not white, not hetersexual, non-Christian and not male then you are a candidate for voting in the Democratic Party. Since most White,  heterosexual, Christian, males work and pay taxes the Democrats are rallying the dregs  and the naive to feed off the producers. The problem is simple math and unless a revolution takes place, the white-european race in America is doomed. These ignorant white liberals are in for a big surprise when they are left with their brown friends in charge of everything.

    • alastairabbacle

      On this topic, if you turn on PBS, it is nothing but “The Magical Brown People” all day….

      How can the federal government possibly continue to be allowed to fund its pro-government, pro-illegal immigration agitprop on NPR and PBS?

      If you can stomach is, try out this Quiz on PBS from “Independent Lens”:

      The immigration tweezers will continue, squeezed on the left from the “people are people” crowd, and on the right from the “business is business” crowd.

    • The__Bobster

      It happened in my old town of West New York, NJ. The corrupt mayor went down to Miami and invited tens of thousands of cane-cutter refugees to move north so that he could skim the concomitant federal funds.

      Within a generation, he and his fellow White crooks were voted out of office in a town that now looked like a third world barrio. Funny that he said these “industrious” immigrants would add vibrancy to a moribund town, as it seemed fine to me at the time and not so fine after the invasion.

  • Chimp Master Rules

    I’ll say this for the Republicans:  Most are totally worthless as far as WE are concerned, but some do line up with our views somewhat.  If what’s coming is as inevitable as it seems, then I assume some of those who (sort of) line up with us will split away and form something new.

    The problem is really the money.  Getting a particular candidate elected means huge profits for the winning side.  The big money isn’t about to support some radical neo-Republican party until it becomes dominant. 

    But it’s not hopeless for us.  It’s all good news.  The more the system breaks down, the better it is for white nationalists.  I know that’s hard for many WN lemmings to understand, but it’s true. 

    WNs don’t need a political evolution – we need a political revolution. 

    • NM156

      Doesn’t take a political scientist to realize that both parties will be gutted and transformed by tens of millions of pissed off, disenfranchised whites. Serious, sober economists like Roubini, who called the housing crisis, the banking and derivatives meltdown, and the recession that follows us four years later, is now calling for a much more serious collapse encompassing the EU and the USA next year, in 2013. The can cannot be kicked down the street any longer. I expect massive social changes in the wake of this intractable debt crisis. Changes in American government, assassinations of political and financial leaders, riots, etc., etc., etc. Anything is possible when the money runs out. And run out it will.

      • Miiclow

        I agree that major changes are inevitable.  However, I don’t think WNs need to rely on a party full of pissed off WNs.  Their goals can easily be realized by voting in a Libertarian/Constitutional leader like Ron Paul.  
        If we can get government out of our personal lives, drastically shrink the bureaucracy, and eliminate the entitlement programs, the system would right itself.
        In my opinion our current state of affairs is due to out of control political correctness during the dawn of the internet.  Our leaders have become cowardly under the glare of the 24/7 liberal-leaning news cycle but once the damn brakes, free markets will work their magic.
        I think the real danger is ever expanding gov’t(Obama’s plan) to prop up this unsustainable population to a point where everything implodes(hyper-inflation, etc.).  I’m nervous but still have hope.

  • Church_of_Jed

    O’Reilly is a blowhard, but definitely will pander to our God given prejudices against Diversity on occasion, like tonight.

    He had the president of Judicial Watch on who just closed with saying that the DOJ doesn’t believe that voting rights are for “white people”.

    Immediately followed by promo for segment on Coki Roberts saying that Romney only went to Poland to get more White votes back here.

    It won’t take much more piling on like that to wake up more of us to the fact that Whiteness is HATED, and we should feel hated and react accordingly.


    • NM156

      Coki Roberts is a twat. Why does she have a career in journalism? Fortunately, the MSM’s only audience is old people. I don’t know anyone under 50 who reads local news in print or online or watches any local or network news broadcast. They exist in an echo chamber of their own propaganda. That is an encouraging development.

    • The__Bobster

      The leprechaun is a fraud. He panders to both sides, depending on which way the wind is blowing.

      Hi.  I’m Bill O’Reilly.  Thank you for watching us tonight.  An all white prom in Georgia.  That’s the subject of this evening’s Talking Points Memo. 

      Over the weekend, some students at Taylor County High School in Butler, Georgia, held a whites only prom off campus to avoid civil rights problems.  We sent a camera crew to the event.  Predictably, none of the participants wanted to talk because they know it’s wrong.  But they don’t care.  And we will show you more of that video a little later on.

      Here’s the problem.  We should all be in this together.  After 9/11 and the Iraq war, it should be obvious that race is not a factor when it comes to the welfare of all Americans.  We are all in this together. 

      It is simply cruel, unfair and un-American to exclude any race from a school-driven social event.  Why would anybody want to do that at a high school that’s half white and half black?  Why would anyone want to hold party that excludes their classmates based upon the color of their skin?  It’s flat-out wrong.

  • Well, once America becomes a “one party system”, with Democrats in control, is when we will really start to see some “change we can believe in”. This is when we will see states starting to secede, I believe. 

  • My issue with the Republicans is that they became more interested in what goes on in people’s bedrooms rather than whether you can feed your kids or not, or rather you can keep your house.

  • It’s not for nothing the Republican Party is called “The Stupid Party”. But what we have now is as close as we’ll get to a one-party state. In the future, Mexicans will have their own party, as will the blacks and Asians. At some point, given the vast racial divides, perhaps even a white party will be tolerated in mainstream politics. Who knows.

    • You’re right Reuben. As soon as Mexicans become a majority anywhere, they start demanding  “their own representation,” even though the majority of them are illegal aliens. Hispanics are as racist and exclusionary as they come.

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    Is the GOP dead?


    Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) indicated Thursday that the Republican-controlled House of Representatives that he leads may go ahead and provide the Obama administration with the funding it needs to implement a regulation that earlier this year Boehner himself called ‘an unambiguous attack on religious freedom in our country.’

    Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius finalized the regulation earlier this year. It requires virtually all health care plans to cover, without cost-sharing, sterilizations, contraception and abortion-inducing drugs. The regulation takes effect Aug. 1.

    Half of wage-earners do not pay taxes — yet they and their children collect the benefits of government redistribution, i.e. free education, EITC, welfare payments, medical benefits, housing vouchers, etc.

    They are NOT going to vote for a party that they’ve been told will reduce or cut their benefits.

    We’re on our own, folks. Arrange your protection plans accordingly.  

    I strongly suggest investing in precious metals:


  • The entire process of supplanting a despicable representative of White America starts with an extremely vocal element that makes no excuses when it comes to supporting White interests. The GOP is made up of milquetoast self-servers who are more concerned about “getting elected” than they are about representing White interests. The idiots don’t seem to realize that, if you’re White, then the process of getting elected has a very short shelf-life in a multicultural/multiracial environment where blacks always support blacks, Asians always support Asians, Hispanics always support Hispanics, and all of those races generally support the non-White over the White.

    If you have a viable White business, I will support you over the other guy.
    If you are White and are willing to work, I will hire you over the other guy.
    If you are White and make a quality product, I’m buying from you.
    If you are White and need a helping hand, I’ll make the extra effort.
    Equal opportunity be damned, I’ve had enough and I just don’t care anymore.

    That’s how it starts.

  • JohnEngelman

    The poorest 20 percent in the United States pay 16.0 percent of their income in taxes. The middle 20 percent pays 28.5  percent. The richest one percent pay 30.8 percent.
    Since the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 real after tax income for eighty percent of the United States has declined. For the richest one percent it has increased dramatically.
    Demographic and religious changes in the American population will contribute to the demise of the Republican Party. An additional factor is that the GOP advances the economic interests of an increasingly predatory plutocracy while living standards for most Americans decline. 
    The Republican Party has always been the party for the rich. The Democratic Party has become the party for blacks and Hispanics. I would like a party for the rest of us. 

    • “Where some people are very wealthy and others have nothing, the result
      will be either extreme democracy or absolute oligarchy, or despotism
      will come from either of those excesses.” — Aristotle

    • Marcy Fleming

       I would advise people to check out your sources as I have seen the sort of stats that you cite and I have also read rebuttals on the Lew Rockwell site, the George Reisman blog, the Cato Institute blog, Tom Palmer’s blog, the AEI blog and many more.
      One former Reagan official, Paul Craig Roberts, has been on both sides of this debate.
      People need to do their own research rather than rely on someone’s cherry picked sites.
      One thing I do agree with Engelman is that I have no use for either major party either as I was both a Republican and a Democrat at different times.
      I believe ideas count more than demographics. I see no religious barriers to the GOP as there is a rapidly growing of libertarian leaning non-believers. No special reason for them to vote Democratic any more than to support the right wing statism of the GOP.
      I think the top few percent actually pay closer to half of all federal taxes as at least 50% of our people pay none at all. I’m not wealthy but I am certainly better off than under that loser Jimmy Carter with 18% inflation and a 21% interest rate for mortgages.
      In the last four years people have lost wealth but we certainly gained under Reagan after 1982, gained under Bush 2 from 2003-2007 before the crash, gained under Clinton from 1994-2000, when the NASDAQ crashed.
      I would trust private sector stats over government ones any day. Here in the Bay Area I was told by a Black Democratic Assemblyman that Oakland’s real unemployment rate was 30% back in 2010, not the official 18% figure.
      The soak the rich rhetoric by the Occupy trash is anti-capitalism, stupid anti-economics and anti-Semitic to boot.
      The New Deal paradigm is collapsing even under Obama. The odd thing is that the greatest achievement of the Great Society, Medicare, will destroy the greatest achievement of the New Deal, Social Security.
      We might be better off if Romney loses as his foreign policy is even worse than Obama’s as witness his pandering in Israel the other day and the anti-abortion nonsense will not fly. Women will not go back to illegal abortions. The GOP is brain dead here and so is pat Buchanan. His screeds are getting tiresome and tendentious.

  • alastairabbacle

    Hannity had Buchanan on his show the other day.  I think the time for a prominent conservative to point out that group differences in AVERAGE intelligence exist will come soon.

  • MikeofAges

    Let’s just be clear about one thing. There are very few people in America who pay no taxes. Most people in most jurisdictions are subject to numerous regressive taxes. Reportedly, in the state of Washington, which has no income tax, a person who earns $20,ooo a year pays 16 percent of their income in direct and hidden state and local taxes, notably (but not limited to) the sales tax. $200,000 earners pay on the average four percent of their income in the same state and local taxes.

    From this point of view, the progressive federal income tax might be looked upon as the great equalizer in a composite tax system. Still, the tax system as today organized gives lower paid workers and those who do not work plenty of incentive to seek benefits from a federal government to which they pay little or no taxes.

    Just keep in mind, when you talk about taxes, consider the entirety of the tax system. When you do, you get a different picture than when you talk about the federal income tax in isolation.

  • Nothing without the collapse of a bankrupt system.

    “War is father of all, king of all. Some it makes gods, some it makes men, some
    it makes slaves, some free.”


  • What’s wrong with gay bathhouses?

  • Well, I think the Republican Party is kind of like Mark Twain. Rumors of its death have been greatly exaggerated. And repeated. Endlessly. For years. By the mainstream media.

    Most honest studies nowadays show that the Republicans are only behind the Democrats by one or two percentage points in their share of the electorate. Obama is only ahead of Gov. Romney by one or two percentage points in the presidential polls. Increasing numbers of conservative GOP black and Hispanic candidates are winning office, at the state and national level.

    I don’t buy these gloom-and-doom predictions by people like Buchanan. I think the Republicans are doing much better than some people think they are. And if the country is, indeed, on the decline, then that’s not good news for the Democrats, by any means, either.

    • Marcy Fleming

       Good points, thanks for making them, I too am tired of Pat here.

  • AmyD

    Isn’t it obvious that as the nation dies, the GOP dies with it?  Will the minorities protect the uber-rich Republican tax rates?  Of course not.  It will just become an unguarded watermelon patch once the minorities become a majority.  Pat played patty-cake with this stuff in the Nixon White House.  Now out of power, he sees the light.