Is Obama’s Coalition Re-Emerging?

Ronald Brownstein, National Journal, February 6, 2012

One striking aspect of the new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Monday is how closely the internal results of its head-to-head match-up between President Obama and Mitt Romney track Obama’s performance against John McCain in 2008. Overall, the poll found Obama leading Romney in a 2012 match up by 51 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. It was the first time the survey had shown Obama (or Romney) crossing the 50 percent threshold against the other in a series of ballot tests since last spring.

Looking below the top-line numbers, the survey found the electorate dividing along lines almost identical to the actual results in 2008, according to figures provided by ABC pollster Gary Langer, the President of Langer Research Associates.

In 2008, Obama carried a combined 80 percent of minority voters; the ABC/Washington Post survey shows him drawing 81 percent of non-white voters against Romney (who attracts just 14 percent).

In 2008, Obama carried 43 percent of whites, while McCain won 55 percent of them. The new survey shows Romney leading Obama among whites 53 percent to 42 percent. The ABC/Post poll shows Obama holding his ground both among whites with and without a college education. In 2008, Obama won 40 percent of non-college whites, while 58 percent of them voted for McCain. In the new survey, those working-class whites-the toughest audience for Obama throughout his national career-break in virtually identical proportions: 56 percent for Romney, 39 percent for the president.


On all these fronts, the survey shows Obama regaining ground that he had largely surrendered in ballot tests (and his job approval numbers) since late 2009. The gains might be temporary, driven by the confluence of good economic news and a highly bruising period in the Republican presidential primary that has sent Romney’s unfavorable ratings soaring in recent weeks. But on the other side of the ledger, it’s worth remembering that if the minority share of the total vote increases in 2012 at the same pace it has grown since 1992, and Obama holds just-three-fourths of those voters, he could win a national majority with as little as 40 percent of the white vote. {snip}

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  • Anonymous

    I’ve been saying it all along: Romney is the Republicans’ last chance. Romney can just barely get elected if he gets 60% of the White vote and enough minorities stay home. If he does, he will have to initiate a massive deportation scheme and make working here unbearable for illegal aliens. If he does get elected, and does not do this, then there is no way another Republican will get elected.

    The white community is to divided to vote for one candidate.  They do not recognize their inherant interests in voting as one community. Our racial consciousness has been eroded, and I fear it will never resurface.

  • Anonymous

    I need two bumper stickers. One wold say “Anyb0dy but Obama.” The other one would say “Anybody but Mitt.”

  • conrad

    I plan to vote for BO.  That’s right. You see, a bitter poison is better to awaken the white masses than a slow (so-called Republican) poison.

    • Anonymous

      Nope…..sorry, NO AWAKENING is going to happen. Just a slow decent into Mad Max America.

       More and more areas of this once fine country will resemble places like Philthadelphia, Detroitistan, Newarkadelphia….etc, etc, etc.

  • As things are and without the Rule of Law, we do not have a chance in hell of survival.  Our leaders would just as soon stab us in the back as look at us.  We will be robbed, our homes will be confiscated when we can no longer pay the taxes, and we will eventually get packed into Conrail Box cars on our way to FEMA camps.  Things will become so bad for whites that as they are loaded into box cars they will breath a sigh of relief that its now over.  I think that is why the Jews didn’t resist the Nazi SS.  

  • Anonymous

     This analysis sounds like a legitimate cause for concern among those of us who care about electoral politics – I would just add that analysis like this would be even better if it were also accompanied by a map of how electoral votes appear to be shaping up.

    Obama might be putting together comparable numbers to last time, but that doesn’t mean that he’s going to win the same states he won last time.

    • John McCain will do everything he can to insure an Obama victory.  Donald Trump will run as a third party candidate  if it looks like Obama needs a help as was done by Ross Perot against Bush I.  

      It appears that the GOP elite class wants Obama to win this year so they can run Jeb Bush in 2016.  If a GOPer wins this year, Jeb would be out and become another Hilary Clinton just waiting.  The more Obama destroys the nation, the better chance Jeb Bush would have for winning because whats left of America would be desperate.  

      • Anonymous

        Jeb Bush should run for President…….of Mejico.

  • Anonymous

    This is scary, it seems pretty clear that Obama will do or say anything to get  reelected and if he does we can kiss traditional America goodbye.  Obama is courting Hispantics by failing to enforce the border and cutting way down on the deportations. This is a “stealth amnesty”.   However, Obama’s recent attacks on the Catholic church and the prospect of $10 a gallon of gas may work against him with Hispantics.
    It also seems that close to  100% of  blacks will support Obama no matter what he does. And Obama is also courting the “Greenies” with his war on fossil fuels,  oil, natural gas and coal are on the hit list.   As we know Obama has basically shut down drilling in the Gulf and has recently shot down the Keystone oil pipeline which would have immediately provided 20.000 jobs and would not have cost America anything.
    America became the most successful nation in the history of the world based on the wisdom of our Founders.   Obama apparently believes he is much smarter than the Founders and will completely change America to prove his brilliance.

  • Impertinent

    If this should happen…I just hope to God that we’ll just separate into two separate distinct countries. Because this one…cannot sustain the other.

    •  I’ve said it before:  the “other” will never let us go; they cannot survive without us.

  • Anonymous

    Yep, Mr Hussein(no disrespect, I honor our president by using his Islamic name) is going to EASILY get back in. The non-white and liberal-white population are a lock for him.

    And the feckless Republirats……….oh my, they are looking and sounding like doofuses. The Newtyogre…..I cannot stand him. Ron Paul…..the only sane one out of the bunch. Santorum……ok guy….babysit the world type Phonycon. And the beautiful, perfumed one….Romney…..he will get the nod……the Demorats will tear him to pieces….and evil, successful capitalist.

    Sorry to say it, the Demorats have populism on their side.

  • Anonymous

    You are so right on. The Government spews lies like no one else.

    How about the ole “10-11 million illegals immigrants in this country”.  Hey, Big Brother has been rolling out that phony number for the last 10 years….it is probably closer to 20-25 million ILLEGAL ALIENS.

    • Anonymous

      Try 30-38 million ugly squat monster invaders. As before the amnesty of 1986, you have to multiply the “official” number by three. 

  • Anonymous

    “I’ll bet you ten thousand dollars.”
    “I’m not concerned with the very poor.”
    No politician is this stupid.  Well there may be one or two, but you don’t get elected Governor of Massachusetts talking this way, nor do you get elected President of the United States.
    Mitt Romney’s entire candidacy is designed to ensure a second Obama term.  Fox News is on board, with its eye-rolling at Ron Paul and non-stop fear mongering about the sharp-dressed little man in Iran with his finger on the trigger of the Islamobomb, which is sure-as-shootin’ going to come screaming in over the horizon if Ron Paul is elected, but somehow will not happen with Romney in the White House. This scares the living hell out of the AARP crowd that is the only remaining reliable demographic that consumes their propaganda wholesale.
    The Republican party is gearing up to lose another election, like it did in ’08 and ’96.  It’s been bought and paid for by the nefarious forces of multicultural evil.  It values power over principle.  It would rather remain in the opposition than get behind Ron Paul and champion the best portions of his platform that would play extremely well with White Americans across the political spectrum, if they could only get an honest airing.  It is most certainly NOT concerned with the health of America.   

    My fellow Amreners, what more evidence do you need to realize that the US as we know it is dead?  There will be no reforming the system, no turning the tide, no “taking our country back.”  It’s no longer our country.  Our only hope is to build a new one from the ashes.

  • Anonymous

    Obama was the beneficiary of a perfect storm in 2008 & many parts of it had nothing to do with an idiot electorate or minorities who would vote for a Democrat no matter what – unpopular two term President from the other party, thoroughly uninspiring Repbulican candidate and campaign, economic catastrophe two months before election. etc. The age and racial demographics are what cemented it, though. However, I don’t think that everything will magically come together like it did last time – the bizarre coalition of stoner college kids, guilty liberal types, naive soccer moms and other whites will not turn out in the numbers they did four years ago. Same with blacks, etc. – The novelty has worn off and it will be harder to get them do drop whatever they’re doing – asking for a quarter, fighting for Air Jordans, using a public library computer to watch World Star Hip Hop, etc. – and go to the voting booth again.

    I do agree, though, that this is the Republicans’ last chance – four more years of Obama will ensure an irreversible flood of government-dependent Democratic voters for life.

    • Anonymous

      Yes you are right, it was the perfect storm.

      I believe McCain was actually a few points ahead of Obama and then the stock market crashed week’s before the election and that was a blow the Republicans could never recover from.

      • Anonymous

        I do not believe the timing of the crash was accidental.

        • Former Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), who lost to Lou Barletta in 2010, made the clear implication that there was some sort of timed perfidy (Soros?) in September 2008.

          One poll before the crash and after McCain picked Palin as the running mate, and even after the DNC Fake Greek Column Convention, showed McCain with a 15-point lead over Obama.

  • The demographics of America, the race and age breakdown, are fast approaching a smaller yet still worthwhile model to understand future elections.

    America as a whole is going the way that California did 20 years ago. Go look at the GOP track record with a non-White majority. Yeah. Pretty grim!

    It doesn’t have to be that way, but I can’t imagine a multimillionaire Mormon banning all legal immigration (1 million a year), building a border wall and massively funding city, state and federal agencies to keep any further illegals out (about 400 to 500 thousand), and starting a massive deportation campaign, on the scale of some 15+ million people.

    Between 1+ million non-Whites coming into the country and the breeding of the ones presently in America, I’d say at the age of 35, ten years from now, less than 50 percent of people in my age group and in the labor pool will be White and the country will be a majority non-White one within say 20 years or less of that.

    Unless some really radical change happens the GOP will be increasingly irrelevant and the only real voting difference will be if you vote for a Socialist or a Communist or some other strain of gigantic government left politics.

  • I would like to think we’re over that sort of thing.  However, if Romney wins the nomination, I have no doubt that fanatical Democrats and the Obama re-elect campaign will endorse and employ an under-the-table strategy of the same kind of “religious bigotry” they would otherwise denounce.  They will do it to try to dislodge most Republican-leaning Christians away from voting for Romney, and that is as good as a half a vote for Obama.

    Why can I predict this?  Two words:  Mark Foley.  After years of Official America telling us there is no strong correlation between homosexuality and pedophilia, (and there probably isn’t), Democrats were more than happy to peddle that notion in the fall of 2006 with Foley (the media held the scandal under the vest for more than a year, waiting to time-release it for maximum benefit to Democrat), to discourage conservative Christians from voting Republican.  And to an extent, it worked.  In reality, Foley was never accused of pedophilia.  But to this day, there are people who think that he did.

  • Anonymous

    The Republicans always assume 2-3% voter fraud on the part of the Dems. I feel it’s going to be higher this time.

  • Anonymous

    If any of the old republican “retreads” secure the nomination, we will see four more years of the o’bama.  The republicans and democrats are “two sides of the same coin”,  Republicans are actually “democrat lite”. 
    George Washington warned against party politics . . .

  • Anonymous

    Good advertisement for the conference. I am hoping Amren does not disclose the location of the conference until after, there is just no good reason too!

    On a side note was that a dog giving off the occasional bark in that interview? During the Political Cesspool there was a small child in the background. That is funny!

  • Anonymous

    Except for Joe Biden,no white person has a good enough reason to vote for Obama.