What’s in Store for the National Front?

Emmanuel Macron, the former Rothschild banker, is now the president-elect of France after defeating Marine Le Pen 66 to 34 percent. Immigration restrictionists had hoped that a Le Pen victory would give France a chance to end its membership with the European Union, stop Islamic immigration, and reduce the risk of terrorism. Mr. Macron, however, is committed to a stronger relationship with the EU and more immigration for France. He thinks terrorism is just a symptom of globalism and partly the fault of the French.

Essentially, the French have voted for the status quo for the next five years. Nationalists worry that an increasingly diverse France will make it harder for a party like the National Front to take power in the future. Miss Le Pen’s loss is disconcerting, but I believe the National Front — it may be changing its name to “Les Patriotes” — still has a chance to win.

Credit Image: © Maxppp via ZUMA Press

Demographic data are not widely collected in France, so the precise number of blacks, Arabs, Berbers, Muslims, and other minorities is unknown. The best estimates, however, put the visible minority population around 15 percent; another 15 percent European but not ethnically French. This means that France is about as European as the United States was before the passage of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965. Any nationalist movement will need white voters, and France will have enough for the National Front to take power in the foreseeable future. Donald Trump was able to win the American election with an electorate that was only 73.3 percent white, and France should remain at least that white for the next three or four election cycles.

There are signs that support for the National Front will grow. Miss Le Pen received nearly twice the support that her father and party founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in the second round of the 2002 presidential election. In that election, left-wing, right-wing, and center political parties united to support Jacques Chirac’s reelection in order to defeat Jean-Marie Le Pen. Mr. Le Pen received just under 18 percent of the vote — not much more than the 16.9 percent he received in the first round. His daughter, however, gained 13 percent from the first round to the second.

In the last 15 years, more French voters have come to see the National Front as a legitimate option, which bodes well for 2022 and beyond. The pariah status of the party since its founding in the early 1970s is collapsing as a new generation reaches voting age and faces the social problems of mass immigration. The traditional smears of “fascist,” “far-right,” and “racist” that worked against the elder Le Pen are likely to be ineffective on French voters born well after the Second World War.

Marine Le Pen also generated a great deal of support among young people. In the first round, some surveys indicated that she had 40 percent of the youth vote. Emmanuel Macron was the third-place finisher for this group, with much of his support coming from voters over the age of 65. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, seen as the French equivalent of Bernie Sanders, also did well with young people in the first round. While Mr. Mélenchon is far-left, he and Miss Le Pen addressed similar issues about European integration, overreach by the EU, and destructive banking interests. In the second round, Miss Le Pen won 44 percent of the youth vote, considerably more than her overall score of 34 percent. Youth unemployment in France is nearly 25 percent, and desperate people will eventually turn to desperate options. As older generations die off, and economic trends continue, support for the National Front will continue to grow.

The standard argument that increased diversity in France will reduce the chances of a nationalist victory fails to consider the possibility that white voters will start voting as a bloc. The former Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, noted that this is common in multicultural societies. There are examples in the United States. Mississippi is approximately 40 percent minority, mostly black. Conventional wisdom suggests that Mississippi should be a solid Democratic state since American blacks vote about 90 percent Democratic. In Mississippi, however, whites also vote as a bloc, with roughly 90 percent of their votes going to the Republicans, so Mississippi will remain solidly Republican for the foreseeable future.

In contrast, Vermont is 95 percent white but does not have the same incentive for whites to vote as a bloc. It therefore remains a bastion for white progressives. Based on trends in the youth vote, it appears that France is headed in the direction Lee Kuan Yew would have predicted. White voters in France may be looking out for their collective interests.

The political realities of France could also promote the National Front’s message. Emmanuel Macron is committed to staying in the European Union, continued mass immigration, and liberalizing international markets. The French will continue to see their communities flooded with low-IQ foreigners, ensuring that crime and terrorism will remain persistent problems. French industry will face increased competition from low-wage labor in developing countries. This will force these industries to either shutdown or move their operations offshore. At the same time, the influx of low-skilled foreign labor will put downward pressure on wages. The next five years will give good opportunities to any opposition party, particularly the National Front.

Although Emmanuel Macron was a favorite of the establishment, he was in large part elected as an outsider. He has never held elective office, and his political party, En Marche!, was founded last year. In this election, both the traditional center-left and center-right parties, the Socialists and the Republicans, failed to make it to the second round. The voters clearly rejected the status quo.

In the second round, many voters didn’t even bother to vote. Turnout declined significantly, and some voters cast their ballots for neither candidate. Unfortunately, the status quo is what the French are going to get. Emmanuel Macron will attempt to govern in much the same way past French presidents have done — though probably even less effectively. Since En Marche! is a new party, it is not likely to get a majority in the National Assembly. Mr. Macron will probably have to build a coalition, which is especially difficult.

In 2017, the French voted for change. They will not get it. Employment will stagnate, terrorism will get worse, crime rates will rise, deindustrialization will accelerate, and the displacement of the native population will continue. The National Front may have lost, but the issues they champion are not going away. The French have already rejected the current political establishment, and in 2022 they will have a chance to reject Mr. Macron. Whoever leads the Party and whatever its name, the National Front will almost certainly be a significant player. The French will have an opportunity to get out of the EU and close its borders to the Third World invasion. Time is running out, but France still has an opportunity to preserve its heritage.