Trudeau’s Immigration Plan Hinges on Millions of People Leaving

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to fix immigration in Canada depends on the biggest exodus of people since at least the 1940s — one that many economists doubt is feasible.

Slamming the brakes on record-setting population growth requires 2.4 million non-permanent residents to leave or change status over the next two years, according to the government’s forecasts, which also see 1.5 million new temporary arrivals during that time.

That projected net loss of about 900,000 international students, laborers and other non-permanent residents is a little more than 2% of Canada’s current population. It would be roughly the equivalent of removing Indiana from the US.

The new plan — in which the overall population is set to slightly shrink, once all factors are considered — represents a sharp reversal from a population boom that strained housing, the job market and public services. Once a proponent of mass migration, Trudeau is backtracking amid souring public opinion on immigration and weak polling numbers for his Liberal Party.

But for it to work, large numbers of people must leave when their temporary visas expire. Next year alone, the government projects 1.3 million non-permanent residents will lose their spots — more than double that of any previous year. The vast majority will be expected to depart the country, though the government has earmarked about 158,000 permanent-resident places for them, and others may be able to snag another non-permanent resident visa.

Unlike US President-elect Donald Trump, Trudeau’s government has made no public plans for mass deportations. The progressive prime minister appears unlikely to go that route, though he has promised beefed-up border security to ward off Trump’s tariff threat over undocumented migrants entering the US — currently a relatively small issue at the northern crossing.

“It’s highly unlikely that the government will achieve a population decline because the level of departures they’re forecasting aren’t realistic,” said Henry Lotin, an economist who has advised Statistics Canada on population measurements.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has also raised doubts, saying there’s “uncertainty in just how quickly these things play out.” Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux, a fiscal watchdog, said there’s “significant risk” to the government’s projections, especially the estimated outflows.

Lotin, who founded consulting firm Integrative Trade and Economics, noted that a large number of foreign students and workers will seek ways to remain in Canada. He estimated 2 million out of the 3 million temporary residents currently in the country have a desire to remain permanently.

Many are vocal about it: groups of foreign students and workers have been holding rallies across Canada, demanding the right to remain in the country. {snip}

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Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada said there are “no accurate figures” on undocumented people, but has cited academic estimates ranging from 20,000 to half a million. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, warned in 2023 that Statistics Canada was undercounting the population by as much as one million by assuming visa overstayers had left.

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