Poll Three Part Two: Is National Divorce a Solution?
David Zsutty, Homeland Institute, December 4, 2023
On February 20, 2023, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on Twitter that we need a national divorce in which we separate red states and blue states and shrink the federal government.[1] This sparked an ongoing discussion about national divorce.
Shortly thereafter, The Economist/YouGov conducted a poll March 4-7, 2023 in which they asked about national divorce.[2] Axios/Ipsos conducted a poll which asked about national divorce March 10-13, 2023.[3]
The Homeland Institute conducted a follow-up poll of our own from November 10-27, 2023, which asked 863 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American voters to see if there had been any change since the YouGov and Axios polls and to explore a number of follow up questions.[4]
The first part of our report covered the issues of democracy, polarization and balkanization and can be found here. This second part will cover national divorce, redrawing stateliness, and the public perception of the different levels of government.
Some of our major findings are that:
- 25.4% of all respondents and 32.2% of Republican respondents agreed at least a little with the statement that “America’s political divide is becoming so great that we may be better off allowing some states to secede and go their own way.”
- 15.1% of all respondents and 19.9% of Republican respondents would support by at least a little their city or county breaking off from their state and joining an adjacent state which is closer to their political views.
- Respondents were pessimistic about political polarization, gridlock, and political violence. However, they were also pessimistic about whether a national divorce would reduce the amount of gridlock and political violence.
- Few people feel that any level of government cares about their interests, with the federal government being the most unpopular. Republican respondents feel uncared for the most, with suburban Republicans feeling slightly more uncared for than rural Republicans.
- Only 19.5% of all respondents, 8.6% of Republicans, and 36.3% of Democrats at least somewhat agreed that the federal government cares about their interests.
I. NATIONAL DIVORCE
We asked respondents how much they agree with the following statement: America’s political divide is becoming so great that we may be better off allowing some states to secede and go their own way. Respondents could answer Yes (a lot), Yes (somewhat), Yes (a little), Maybe, No, and I don’t know.
We modeled this question off of the Axios poll, which asked “Would you support or oppose a ‘national divorce’ where Republican-leaning states form a separate country from Democratic-leaning states?” and the YouGov poll which asked “Do you agree or mostly disagree with the following statement? ‘We need a national divorce. We need to separate by red states and blue states. . .’”
Of all respondents, 8.6% agreed a lot, 8.5% somewhat, and 8.4% a little. Of Republican respondents, 12.7% agreed a lot, 11.6% agreed somewhat, and 7.9% agreed a little. This comes to 25.4% of all respondents and 32.2% of Republican respondents agreeing at least a little with our statement about national divorce.
In contrast, 23% of all respondents and 28% of Republican respondents in the YouGov poll were in some form of agreement with that poll’s statement on national divorce.[5] 20% of all respondents were in agreement with the Axios poll’s statement on national divorce.
| # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Yes (a lot) | 74 | 8.6% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 27.3% |
| Yes (somewhat) | 73 | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 9.1% |
| Yes (a little) | 72 | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 18.2% |
| Maybe | 121 | 14.1% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 4.5% |
| No | 462 | 53.7% | 63.2% | 55.2% | 44.6% | 27.3% |
| I don’t know | 59 | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 13.6% |
| Total | 861 |
This suggests that while support for a national divorce is growing, that growth is gradual and it is still a novel concept. Support for a national divorce may also be higher among white Americans. Neither the YouGov nor Axios polls reported a breakout by race. Furthermore, a key difference between our poll and the YouGov and Axios polls is that ours allowed for more answers.
That 14.1% of our respondents replied “maybe” and 6.9% replied “I don’t know” suggests that there is a contingent of the population willing to entertain the idea of a national divorce even if they do not support it yet.
II. REDRAWING STATE LINES
We also asked respondents how much they would support their city or county breaking off from their state and joining an adjacent state which is closer to their political views. Respondents could answer Yes (a lot), Yes (somewhat), Yes (a little), Maybe, No, and I don’t know.
Support for cities and counties switching from one state to another was even lower than support for national divorce.
Of all respondents, 6.6% agreed a lot, 4.1% agreed somewhat, and 4.4% agreed a little. Of Republican respondents, 12.4% agreed a lot, 5.2% agreed somewhat, and 2.2% agreed a little. This comes to 15.1% of all respondents and 19.8% of Republican respondents agreeing at least a little with the idea of their city or county joining a different state.
However, this may be because the question was asked specifically in regards to their city or county as opposed to in general. In the future, we will ask about support for cities and counties breaking off in general. Furthermore, support may be higher in areas where it would make sense such as eastern Oregon or rural Northern California.
| # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Yes (a lot) | 57 | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 12.4% | 13.6% |
| Yes (somewhat) | 35 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Yes (a little) | 38 | 4.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 13.6% |
| Maybe | 77 | 8.9% | 4.1% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 18.2% |
| No | 561 | 65.2% | 75.9% | 65.0% | 56.6% | 40.9% |
| I don’t know | 93 | 10.8% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 9.1% |
| Total | 861 |
III. BARRIERS TO NATIONAL DIVORCE, ETC.
The low support for national divorce and redrawing state borders appears puzzling given that respondents were pessimistic about political polarization, gridlock, and political violence improving anytime soon.
We asked respondents if they think political polarization over the next ten years will: greatly increase, somewhat increase, stay about the same, somewhat decrease, greatly decrease, or I don’t know. Only 12.6% of respondents think that political polarization will at least somewhat decrease.
| Polarization | # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another |
| Greatly increase | 244 | 28.3% | 21.4% | 31.4% | 30.2% | 45.5% |
| Somewhat increase | 293 | 34.0% | 36.5% | 33.3% | 32.1% | 36.4% |
| Stay about the same | 144 | 16.7% | 16.2% | 17.3% | 17.2% | 9.1% |
| Somewhat decrease | 90 | 10.4% | 13.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Greatly decrease | 19 | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| I don’t know | 72 | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% |
| Total | 862 |
We asked respondents if they think political gridlock over the next ten years will increase or decrease Only 10.5% of respondents think that political gridlock will decrease by at least some.
| Gridlock | # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another |
| Increase (a lot) | 201 | 23.3% | 19.9% | 24.2% | 25.8% | 22.7% |
| Increase (some) | 289 | 33.6% | 35.0% | 31.4% | 35.2% | 27.3% |
| Stay about the same | 204 | 23.7% | 24.4% | 22.9% | 24.0% | 22.7% |
| Decrease (some) | 80 | 9.3% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 9.1% |
| Decrease (a lot) | 10 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| I don’t know | 77 | 8.9% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 18.2% |
| Total | 861 |
We asked respondents if they think political violence over the next ten years will increase or decrease Only 10.4% of respondents think that political violence will decrease by at least some.
| Violence | # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another |
| Increase (a lot) | 172 | 20.0% | 16.5% | 19.3% | 23.1% | 31.8% |
| Increase (some) | 352 | 40.8% | 41.4% | 45.1% | 34.3% | 54.5% |
| Stay about the same | 192 | 22.3% | 23.3% | 19.3% | 25.7% | 9.1% |
| Decrease (some) | 66 | 7.7% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Decrease (a lot) | 22 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| I don’t know | 58 | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Total | 862 |
However, this apparent paradox can be explained by how respondents were also pessimistic about whether a national divorce, as defined as red states and blue states becoming separate countries, or secession, as defined states breaking off and becoming their own countries, would reduce the amount of political gridlock or risk of political violence.
Only 22.5% of respondents thought that a national divorce or secession would reduce the amount of political gridlock by at least a little. Even among Republicans, only 29.5% thought that a national divorce or secession would reduce the amount of political gridlock by at least a little.
| Gridlock | # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another |
| Yes (a lot) | 79 | 9.2% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 13.6% |
| Yes (somewhat) | 71 | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 13.6% |
| Yes (a little) | 44 | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Maybe | 159 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 19.3% | 19.4% | 31.8% |
| No | 417 | 48.3% | 56.2% | 48.7% | 42.2% | 22.7% |
| I don’t know | 93 | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 13.6% |
| Total | 863 |
Likewise, only 20.8% of respondents thought that a national divorce or secession would reduce the risk of political violence by at least a little. Even among Republicans, only 27.7% thought that a national divorce or secession would reduce the risk of political violence by at least a little.
| Violence | # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another |
| Yes (a lot) | 71 | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 13.6% |
| Yes (somewhat) | 66 | 7.7% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
| Yes (a little) | 42 | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Maybe | 135 | 15.7% | 14.2% | 16.4% | 16.5% | 13.6% |
| No | 475 | 55.2% | 61.4% | 56.1% | 47.9% | 54.5% |
| I don’t know | 72 | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 4.5% |
| Total | 861 |
These findings are buttressed by the findings of the Axios poll which asked respondents what they thought would happen to 1.) crime and public safety, 2.) accountability of elected officials, 3.) their state’s economy, 4.) government benefits and services in their state, and 5.) freedom to live the way they want if their state would secede and leave the United States. Respondents could answer Better, Worse, About the Same, and Don’t Know.[6] For each issue, more respondents answered “worse” than any other category. Of these issues, government benefits and services and their state’s economy garnered the most “Worse” votes at 48% and 47% respectively. No issue was rated higher than 13% for “Better.”
For proponents of national divorce, secession, or redrawing state lines, it may seem obvious and natural that our solutions would ameliorate polarization, gridlock, violence, crime, unaccountability, economic problems, problems with benefits, and lack of freedom. For others, it may not be obvious. Not even a year has passed since Representative Greene tweeted about national divorce. These ideas are still novel.
We should therefore focus on explaining in concrete terms how a national divorce, etc. would improve people’s daily lives. We especially need to assuage people’s practical concerns about how government services, benefits, and the economy would be affected. Proposing specific plans backed up by statistics and facts may go a long ways towards garnering more support. Channeling dissatisfaction with the status quo is not enough. We cannot cross these rivers when we meet them.
Alternatively, we may have to either explain or wait until people realize that they have no real choice other than living in a free second-world country that can rebound or in a dystopian third-world tyranny which will never rebound. It is vastly more preferable to be Serbia than Venezuela.
The Cape Independence movement in South Africa is an interesting case study for national divorce. 58% of voters in the Western Cape support independence, while 68% support at least holding a referendum on the matter.[7] The Cape Independence movement has also garnered multi-racial support.
Part of their success is due to the gravity of the situation in South Africa. 64% of people in the Western Cape feel their quality of life will improve with independence. This further suggests that addressing practical economic concerns is key to popularizing national divorce. But most strikingly, 40% think that South Africa will be a failed state within 25 years.
Passively waiting for America to deteriorate into a failed state, or close to it, is not a sound plan. But the Cape Independence movement does show that declining standards of living can galvanize the citizenry to consider, and eventually embrace, creative solutions.
Thankfully, Texas Independence (TEXIT) shows that we need not wait until the eleventh hour for national divorce to gain traction. The Texas Nationalist Movement has gathered enough signatures to place the question of “Should the State of Texas reassert its status as an independent nation?” on the Texas GOP primary ballot.[8] Given that a poll by Survey USA in 2022 found that 76% of Texas Republicans support TEXIT along with even 59% of Democrats, it is likely that the upcoming referendum will be a success.[9]
While this referendum is non-binding, its success would go a long way towards furthering national divorce both in Texas and elsewhere. One of the main arguments against national divorce is to disparage it as a fringe concept, which a successful ballot initiative would objectively disprove.
IV. PERCEPTION OF FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
We also asked respondents how much they agree with the following statements: “I feel that the federal government cares about my interests,” “I feel that my state government cares about my interests” and “I feel that my city and county government cares about my interests.” Respondents could answer Strongly Agree, Somewhat Agree, Neither Agree nor Disagree, Somewhat Disagree, Strongly Disagree, and I Don’t Know.
In regard to the federal government, only 19.5% of all respondents and 8.6% of all Republicans at least somewhat agreed that the federal government cares about their interests. It is interesting to note that suburban Republicans appear slightly more critical towards the federal government than their rural counterparts, with 86.5% of suburban Republicans at least somewhat disagreeing that the federal government cares about their interests in comparison to 78.8% of rural Republicans.[10]
| Federal Gov By Party | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % Total | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Strongly Agree | 10 | 1.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Somewhat Agree | 158 | 18.3% | 33.3% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 103 | 11.9% | 16.5% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 217 | 25.1% | 26.2% | 26.5% | 23.5% | 13.6% |
| Strongly Disagree | 366 | 42.4% | 19.1% | 44.8% | 59.7% | 81.8% |
| I don’t know | 9 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Total | 863 |
| Rural Republicans | Suburban Republicans | ||||
| # | % | # | % | ||
| Strongly Agree | 0 | 0.0% | Strongly Agree | 0 | 0.0% |
| Somewhat Agree | 8 | 9.4% | Somewhat Agree | 9 | 6.4% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 10 | 11.8% | Neither agree nor disagree | 8 | 5.7% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 15 | 17.6% | Somewhat Disagree | 37 | 26.2% |
| Strongly Disagree | 52 | 61.2% | Strongly Disagree | 85 | 60.3% |
| I don’t know | 0 | 0.0% | I don’t know | 2 | 1.4% |
| Total | 85 | Total | 141 |
In regard to their state government, only 33.7% of all respondents and 32.4% of all Republicans at least somewhat agreed that their state government cares about their interests. Again, suburban Republicans were more skeptical about whether their state government cares about their interests, with 58.2% of suburban Republicans at least somewhat disagreeing that the federal government cares about their interests in comparison to 54.2% of rural Republicans.
| State Gov By Party | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Strongly Agree | 42 | 4.9% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Somewhat Agree | 248 | 28.8% | 34.6% | 25.6% | 27.2% | 22.7% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 111 | 12.9% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 9.7% | 9.1% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 204 | 23.7% | 21.4% | 23.6% | 27.2% | 9.1% |
| Strongly Disagree | 247 | 28.7% | 22.2% | 31.5% | 30.2% | 50.0% |
| I don’t know | 9 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 4.5% |
| Total | 861 |
| Rural Republicans | Suburban Republicans | ||||
| # | % | # | % | ||
| Strongly Agree | 3 | 3.5% | Strongly Agree | 7 | 5.0% |
| Somewhat Agree | 28 | 32.9% | Somewhat Agree | 36 | 25.5% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 8 | 9.4% | Neither agree nor disagree | 15 | 10.6% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 19 | 22.4% | Somewhat Disagree | 41 | 29.1% |
| Strongly Disagree | 27 | 31.8% | Strongly Disagree | 41 | 29.1% |
| I don’t know | 0 | 0.0% | I don’t know | 1 | 0.7% |
| Total | 85 | Total | 141 |
In regard to their city or county government, 41.8% of all respondents and 38.4% of all Republicans at least somewhat agreed that their city or county government cares about their interests. The gap between suburban and rural Republicans was narrower, with 44.1% of suburban Republicans at least somewhat disagreeing that their local government cares about their interests in comparison to 42.4% of rural Republicans.
| Local Gov By Party | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Strongly Agree | 44 | 5.1% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Somewhat Agree | 316 | 36.7% | 45.5% | 31.7% | 34.3% | 27.3% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 139 | 16.1% | 13.5% | 20.6% | 13.8% | 13.6% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 181 | 21.0% | 16.9% | 21.6% | 24.3% | 22.7% |
| Strongly Disagree | 171 | 19.8% | 13.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 31.8% |
| I don’t know | 11 | 1.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 4.5% |
| Total | 862 |
| Rural Republicans | Suburban Republicans | ||||
| # | % | # | % | ||
| Strongly Agree | 2 | 2.4% | Strongly Agree | 7 | 5.0% |
| Somewhat Agree | 33 | 38.8% | Somewhat Agree | 49 | 34.8% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 14 | 16.5% | Neither agree nor disagree | 20 | 14.2% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 19 | 22.4% | Somewhat Disagree | 34 | 24.1% |
| Strongly Disagree | 17 | 20.0% | Strongly Disagree | 28 | 19.9% |
| I don’t know | 0 | 0.0% | I don’t know | 3 | 2.1% |
| Total | 85 | Total | 141 |
There is a clear trend across party lines toward seeing lower levels of governments as being less unresponsive than higher levels of government. Even fewer Democrats feel that the federal government cares about their interests to some degree at 36.3% in comparison to Democrats who feel that the federal government does not care about their interests at 45.3%. The federal government has a severe crisis of legitimacy when even “the party of big government” doesn’t like big government.
Additionally, while rural areas have long been perceived as bastions of anti-government sentiment, suburban white Republicans may actually surpass them in dissatisfaction. Proximity to diversity may be one possible explanation, but further research is needed. Regardless, white suburbia may prove to be an even greater hotbed of radicalism than the countryside.
The Homeland Institute will repeat this poll in the future to track how the public mind evolves on these issues. We will also explore what solutions Americans favor over national divorce.
[1] https://x.com/mtgreenee/status/1627665203398688768?s=20
[2] https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1i6zpqns9b/econtoplines.pdf
[3] https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-11/Axios-Ipsos%20Two%20Americas%20Index%20March%202023%20Topline%20.pdf
[4] Our margin of error is 3%, as was the YouGov and Axios polls. The YouGov and Axios polls asked respondents of all races, while our respondents were limited to non-Hispanic whites.
[5] https://www.statista.com/chart/29557/support-for-a-national-divorce/
[6] https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-11/Axios-Ipsos%20Two%20Americas%20Index%20March%202023%20Topline%20.pdf See Section 14
[7] https://www.capeindependence.org/post/ciag-poll-aug-2023
[8] https://secession.substack.com/p/texas-independence-will-be-on-the
[9] https://secession.substack.com/p/poll-proves-texas-independence-is
[10] For area, we asked if respondents were urban, suburban or rural. Note that while party affiliation was controlled for, area was not. However, the results are still suggestive of a general trend.
