Black Lives Matter: Premature Deaths Skew US Election Results

MacGregor Campbell, New Scientist, May 1, 2015

Dead men cast no votes. A new study has found that the premature death of millions of black voters in the US has affected the outcome of several elections.


Overall, in the US, the mortality rate for blacks, across age and gender, is almost 18 per cent higher than the rate for whites.


When one demographic group dies at a faster rate than another, it skews the makeup of the electorate in favour of the group with the better survival rates. Geronimus and her colleagues wondered what effect this difference might have on US politics.

To find out, the team looked at the 35-year period between 1970 and 2004, and asked how the outcomes of elections in this period, including the 2004 presidential contest between John Kerry and George W. Bush, might have been different if the mortality rate of black and white people had been equal.

Using cause of death data from the US Centers for Disease Control, Geronimus and colleagues calculated that if blacks died at the same rate as whites, 5.8 million African Americans would have died between 1970 and 2004. The actual number of black deaths over that time span was 8.5 million, meaning that African Americans had 2.7 million “excess deaths”, compared with whites.

A million voters

Of those 2.7 million, Geronimus and colleagues calculated that 1.74 million would have been able to vote in the 2004 elections, of whom 1 million would have actually voted.

The researchers then looked at how this extra million might have influenced elections if they had voted in line with actual black voters. African Americans tend to vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic party, so that party’s presidential candidate, John Kerry, missed out on around 900,000 votes. Kerry’s Republican opponent, George W. Bush, lost around 140,000.

The missing black voters alone would not have been enough to change the result–Bush was elected with a majority of more than 3 million votes. But the story is different at state level, especially if another cause of lost black votes is taken into account.

In 2006, Joe Manza of New York University and Christopher Uggen of the University of Minnesota estimated that 1.95 million voting-age African Americans were unable to vote in 2004 due to the fact that they had been convicted of a felony. A 2013 Pew Research Center study found that black men were six times as likely as white men to be incarcerated in 2010–an increase from 1960, when black men were incarcerated five times as often as white men. This disenfranchisement meant that around 15 per cent of voting-age African Americans were excluded from the 2004 national election.

Geronimus and her colleagues estimated that seven senate and 11 gubernatorial election results between 1970 and 2004 would have been reversed had their hypothetical survivors been able to vote. These were close elections in which the margin of victory was less than a third of the number of estimated hypothetical survivors in the state. Accounting for people disenfranchised by felony convictions would have likely reversed three other senate seats. In at least one state, Missouri, accounting for just excess deaths or felony disenfranchisement would not have been sufficient to reverse the senate election–but both sources of lost votes taken together would have.


Topics: , , ,

Share This

We welcome comments that add information or perspective, and we encourage polite debate. If you log in with a social media account, your comment should appear immediately. If you prefer to remain anonymous, you may comment as a guest, using a name and an e-mail address of convenience. Your comment will be moderated.
  • Why should dying preclude voting? It doesn’t in Chicago.

    • slobotnavich

      Quite so. The so-called Graveyard Vote is a major component of the Democrat constituency.

  • Tim_in_Indiana

    Another reason to be thankful for natural selection.

  • MekongDelta69

    I can’t possibly tell you on here, how very ‘crushed‘ I am by this horrible, terrible news.

    *gets on horse*
    “Hi Ho Geronimus. Awaaaaay.”

  • IstvanIN

    Who even thinks about trying to figure out who would have won an election if death rates had been different? How do they come up with these studies? I just do not understand these things.

    • journey

      Rather encouraged in colleges to be part of the in crowd to be anti-white and pro black. The more creative, the better.

    • listenupbub

      I imagine they make some crazy assumptions in the process of these stupid studies.

      • Light from the East

        Studies supporting liberal’s political views are more likely to receive fund from the government. This is not a news since 2008.

        • Lexonaut

          I think it’s been true for forty years — ever since affirmative action programs began to be demanded, with legal consequences if not implemented.

          • Alden

            Try about 90 years since 1920

          • Lexonaut

            Tell everyone more.

    • Light from the East

      “Overall, in the US, the mortality rate for blacks, across age and gender, is almost 18 per cent higher than the rate for whites.”

      If they were not in America, what would their “natural” mortality rate be?

      • Phoenixian Westernia

        Oh hohohoho, much higher.

      • Alden

        Praise the Lord Hosannah

  • Johann Wald

    This article assumes that if they had been alive they would have voted? I don’t think so. Alive, but in jail. Alive, but not registered. Alive, but not wanting to “act white” by voting. And so on.

    • The early deaths are generally younger boys and men, and voting in the black community is largely the province of middle aged to elderly women. So you’re onto something, that not very many of the early croakers would have actually become voters. This study is way too optimistic about that.

  • Luca D.

    “Dead men cast no votes.”

    Well, that’s a bit of an inaccuracy. Correction: Dad men cast no Republican votes.

    There, fixed it.

  • LHathaway

    What they don’t tell you is that blacks die at a rate well over twice that of Whites during the first year of life alone?

    • Alden

      Because eeevvvviiiil White male obys inject them with deadly germs at birth. The fact that the last White male OBY retired 20 years ago is irrevalent.

  • baldowl

    No matter–there are plenty of suicidally altruistic white people to vote in the dead negros’ place.

  • Jason Lewis

    Strangely they have the lowest reported workplace deaths.

    • Mahound

      Are you implying that pimpin’ ain’t proper work?

    • Dr. Rieux

      But, I’ll wager, they file on-the-job injury claims at a higher rate than whites.

      • Alden

        Astonishingly so. They even fall off their chairs with lifelong disability results.

  • slobotnavich

    Black deaths by murder (overwhelmingly committed by other blacks), drug overdoses, AIDS (rampant among blacks), reckless driving accidents by blacks, seriously limit the number of eligible black voters, though massive voter fraud in all blacks districts does much to redress the balance.

  • LeonNJ

    I’m too pessimistic for my own good I think. This story doesn’t mater. Obama was elected in 08 and in 12, and with the continuous changing demographics, minorities of all colors will vote D. I honestly think a Republican may never win the White House again.

    • Alden

      There is a huge demographic of White women and White critters wrongly classified as male at birth. They bred him, schooled him, bought the state assembly and senatorial seats for him and got him into the White House.

  • slobotnavich

    Dead men cast no votes? Well, that may well be true for whites, Asians, and Amer-Indians, but the so-called Graveyard Vote is alive and well in all Democrat-controlled urban areas, where long-dead blacks vote consistently. Of course, many prefer to believe that the lifespan of many urban blacks is now approaching 120 years. Think of it, a lifespan that saw the Spanish American War, the Wright Brothers first flight at Kittyhawk, but tragically most missed Custer’s Last Stand in 1876.

    • phillyguy

      This past Tuesday in the primary for mayor , the people of my city voted in a white man for the Dems And a white woman for the Republicans, the 4th largest metro area in the country and we will have white leadership, the progressives and others have priced the negros out of the city. .many negros are moving 10 miles away to Delaware where they get more welfare handouts then the surrounding states.

      • slobotnavich

        I live in a Philly suburb and thus find this good news indeed!

      • De Doc

        So how did Nutter work out for you guys? I lived in Philly briefly during my residency and I couldn’t wait to get the heck out of that city!

        • jambi19

          As someone that did training in Philly recently Fishtown in northeast philly is actually a great (somewhat) safe place for young white people in the medical field right now. I interviewed at Henry Ford in Detroit and they all admitted the city was terrible out of the urban core but encouraged me to gentrify with all of them close to the hospital. It was very inviting and I ranked the program very high.

          • Alden

            Bet the Henry Ford people get excellent training in gunshots, knife deaths and injuries and babies beaten to death.

          • jambi19

            Well, I was applying for an Emergency position at a high level trauma facility.

      • InAFreeCountry

        Let Delaware have them. It’s their fault for attracting the moths with a brighter flame.

  • journey

    Another useless propaganda article. Fantasizing about blacks as they were some useful contributing members of society. The majority are not but rather eternal parasites.

    • The high death rate among blacks is the only thing that has preserved our society thus far. Strange how they still seem to be keeping their numbers up, though, huh?

      • journey

        It would even be better if our borders were closed to no more blacks from Africa. The ones getting into Europe will eventually be hitting into this country.

        The latest news: those unwanted invaders (refugees) from Bangladesh and Myanmar will be coming here. They have plenty of black genes in them = more eternal parasites.

        • nordicman

          The blacks here and coming won’t be tolerated by the browns and Asians here. I suspect as time goes on and the white population here in America (unlike Europe, where they’re waking up and resisting quicker) will be forced to fight back or perish.

          • journey

            The white masses will eventually have to wake up from denial and push back. No choice. Currently, no strong leaders have appeared.

          • Alden

            We won’t. There is something deeply, deeply wrong with us. I

      • mike j

        Actually, their population has doubled since 1960 despite their unhealthy lifestyles and propensity to kill one another. You’re absoultely right to say that their high death rate is the only thing that’s preserved our society.

  • Uhhh, that is only one part of the story. Yes, there are “excess” black deaths due to homicide and various health problems, mostly lifestyle related. You see, irresponsible people typically are poor. They make poor decisions. This relative poverty means they grow up in mostly higher crime areas around a lot of other irresponsible people. It also means they have poor diets and a host of health issues as a result, including diabetes, high blood pressure and some cancers. This contributes to the higher death rates. But, also, there is some “good” news. Irresponsible people also recklessly procreate. They just have baby after baby without considering the economic consequences. So, yes there are “excess” deaths in the black community. But there are far more excess births. I think, all in all, the black strategy is working, and despite non-black immigration, they are keeping their percentage in the population from falling.

  • Deacon Blue

    I love these exercises in existential thought. If Blacks lived longer there would be more of
    them to vote and influence elections. If Whites lived longer…ditto! If we never imported
    Blacks into the country hundreds of years ago, if I had a winning lottery ticket, if I had
    taken the red pill instead of the blue pill…if, if and if again!

    • Lexonaut

      There is a Russian pronunciation exercise given to young children. Translated it means …

      “If beans grew in your mouth then it wouldn’t be a mouth but instead a vegetable garden.”

  • Brakedust

    Give the vote to unborn fetuses…if it weren’t for abortion, would whites already be a minority?

    • John Smith

      Blacks would be more numerous, so don’t knock it too much.

      • Lexonaut

        And no need to have a formal vote. If a DNA test says black, simply set the perpetual voting device to “D”. There’s only a 7% chance of that being the wrong choice.

      • Alden

        95 million instead of 36 million

    • Michael Robert Ryan

      Abortion actually works in our favor: considerably more black fetuses are aborted in this country than white ones.

  • KenelmDigby

    Just why is a publication like the ‘New Scientist’ – which is a British popular science weekly magazine, which is rather like the website ‘science daily’, in that it showcases ground breaking research in hard sciences to a popular audience – publishing blatantly political propaganda which has absolutely no connection to science?
    Why would the readership care or be interested or indeed want to be patronised in this way?
    If they wanted Marxist propaganda, then they would have purchased ‘Marxism Today’ instead.

    • John Smith

      I always got copies of this crappy rag for many years. Tabloid science is how I viewed it. I don’t even know how they got my info.

    • Alden

      It’s probably just ne magazine in a big publishing concern. Look at American National Geographic. Started out with exotic animals and places and is now just another anti White PC propaganda piece

  • John Smith

    Some good news, for a change.

  • Dr. Rieux

    On the bright side “premature” black deaths hold down already sky-high levels of black out-of-wedlock births, welfare dependency and crime.

    There is nothing “premature” about these deaths: Engage in criminal behavior or an unhealthy lifestyle, then expect to make an early departure.

  • carriewhite64

    I have heard of some ridiculous “scientific studies,” but this one has to take the cake. “If you are dead, you can’t vote.” Really?

    • Lexonaut

      Yes, really. Somebody has to do it for you.

      • carriewhite64

        You are always one step ahead of me.

        • Lexonaut

          I was the smartass at the back of your class, whispering the lines that unfairly made the kids in front of me snicker, drawing the attention of your teacher. 🙂

          • carriewhite64

            I THOUGHT that was you!

          • Lexonaut

            I do apologize but I was easily bored in school. In … I suppose it was fourth grade … the teacher brought out for each of us a set of one ten by ten square, ten ten strips and ten unit squares. By the end of the hour I understood it all but I had to sit through a whole term … or was it a year … of that stuff.

  • carriewhite64

    Do they really think that the argument “if you are dead you cannot vote to help your community” will affect black behavior?

    • evilsandmich

      It’s rather a wash isn’t it? If their character profile didn’t lend them to murder and imprisonment, then these completely hypothetical blacks would probably not be given to vote as liberal as they do. If one’s ideology is only completely believable by murdering idiots, well, don’t be surprised if not all of them can show up to vote.

      • Blackfish

        I recall some politicians suggesting that Election Day should be a national holiday, presumably to increase the number of people voting. That never made sense to me since (a) it only takes 15 minutes (tops!) to vote and the polls are open until 9 and (b) if you are on welfare, every day is a national holiday!

        • Lexonaut

          “That never made sense to me since (a) it only takes 15 minutes (tops!) to vote …”

          That’s assuming you’ve been bused in, paid off and fed by the get-out-the-vote people. Otherwise it’s too much trouble.

          • Alden

            There is also the write in votes. Just sign up and they will send you the ballots for evermore.

          • Lexonaut

            That’s the way it is in Colorado. However, the sign up is key because the ballots have to bear the identical signature. Anyone can fill out the ballot but only the voter’s signature on the ballot envelope will cause the polling place officials to open the ballot and count it.

  • Snazzy Snook

    Voodoo science and a meaningless study ..
    They don’t account for how many of those “blacks” would be incarcerated, or convicted of felonies, or the ones that simply don’t vote..
    I can go on and on but, my point is made ..

    • Lexonaut

      “Here is my study: “If white couples had more babies there would be enough of them to swing elections”

      Way to go! (Snicker, snicker.)

  • Earl P. Holt III

    One of those “silver linings” that almost makes the rest of the insanity bearable…

  • nordicman

    and if the 50 million whites hadn’t been aborted since 1972, if whites worldwide had regularly had normal white children like we used to, if white men had a racial backbone….there would be more of us today and we wouldn’t have the problems we do now. But hey, we can’t be concerned about whites, can we?

    • JohnnyMangoes

      Blame hedonism.

      Also blame high-IQ people being anti-natalist.

      The dumber you are the more pro-natalist you are. Sad fact.

      But the way I look at it, those are 50 million kids that never had to suffer. Just wish my dad had decided against bringing me into this world too.

    • Alden

      I believe 4 black babies have been aborted for every 1 White baby. Look at the math.

      The major reason young Whites don’t get married young and establish families and homes is financial. Because of affirmative action White men cannot get jobs. Even the most highly skilled math tech medical young White men can’t get jobs.

      Affirmative action, the moving of jobs to india and china and other financial factors are what prevents Whites from having babies.

      I’m 70 and lived through affirmative action and how destructive it is to White family formation. Also, in America housig costs in many places are extremely high because of unlimited immigration. Unfortunately the most expensive housing is located where the msot jobs are.

      Look at San Jose Ca or Silicon Valley ca as the rest of the world calls it. A $95,000 a year programmer job sounds great until you realize that the nearest 3 bedroom house affordable on that income is a 120 mile round trip a day communte which costs a lot in auto expenses.
      Unfortunately when they move that far away for affordable housing they are in a horrible hispanic indian farm workers village as crime ridden as Mexico and their kids will be in a school that is 80 or 90 percent hispanic.
      A house 15 or 20 miles from job in a White / Asian neighborhood costs 3 or 4 million for an ordinary 2,000 sq ft 3 or 4 bedroom 1960’s house.

      But of course even the mosrt highly qualified young White can’t gt a job there because he is White.

      The old fuddy duddies claim that young Whites could afford families if they gave up vacations and new bikes and cars and toys. The truth is, stuff, even vacations and cars are cheaper than 70 years ago but housing, the most basic expense is far, far more expensive than it was.

      Of course the entire math tech and medical industries are in the process of ethnically cleansing Whites.

      Been to a hospital or medical or government building lately? Seen any Whites, especially middle aged and young Whites working there?

    • Alden

      The only way Whites can have lots of children is if we all go on welfare so th egovernmetn can pay us to have babies and gives us affordable homes.

      AS it is, with affirmative action and non White immigration banning us from jobs young Whites can’t have children

  • Anon

    Lol… close as the left will come to admitting that a state of race war exists…not crime.

    They fail to mention the obvious… are all those blacks dying? The answer to that question is documented by the World Health Organization….sort of. Most of those blacks are killed by some combination of being killed as a victim of crime and being killed in self-defense while committing a crime. They REFUSE to tease out the race issue but let’s be honest. Any way you slice it, large numbers of blacks are killed when they stupidly attack a white person….large number of whom are carrying guns and know black = violent criminal.

    How many? More than are sent to prison. Enough that the black population is shrinking despite insane birth rates, paid for cradle to grave (at a young age) by YT.

    Enough to sway elections.

  • rentslave

    Do we really want blacks to vote at all?What sane nation would allow it?

    • Rob

      Only a stupid liberal nation. Blacks have no sense of whom to vote for. They just vote for what they think is best of them when it is worse for others.

  • phatazz

    When one demographic group REPRODUCES at a faster rate than another, it skews the makeup of the electorate in favour of the group with the better REPRODUCTION rates. DID Geronimus and her colleagues wondered what effect this difference might have on US politics? Hmmmm
    I changed the original text slightly……………………………………

    • InAFreeCountry

      Unfortunately, our taxes go to subsidize their birth rate. Whites have as many children as they can afford. Blacks have as many children as they can.

  • Alden

    Thank God. Think I’ll go to Church this Sunday for what is called a Mass of Thanksgiving.

  • Alden

    A new form of disrimination, anti deadism!

  • Alden

    One of the Clinton’s nominees for attorney general I forget her name proposed just that, weighted voting a black vote counts for 5 a White vote counts for 1 or whatever is needed to achieve the desired result. Her name was Lahnnie Guenier I think, affirmative action law professor good friend of Hitlery. Dad some black schmuck selected for his race, Mom a you know who communist. Raised by you know who commie Mom and maternal grandparents.

    Just like Obama come to to think of that. There was a huge black man commie girl shoved into it by her commie parents breeding program for decades. They wanted to produce some Obamas and Lani Gueniers and they did.