Hispanics Led The Housing Bubble, Blacks Did Not

Steve Sailer, VDARE, January 16, 2014

HousingBubble

Here’s a Urban Institute / Zillow study (via Kevin Drum) that confirms what lots of other evidence already suggested: that the Housing Bubble of 2003-2006 was led by over-inflated expectations about Hispanics. The yellow line above represents home values in Hispanic-plurality communities (not among Hispanics households themselves). All types of communities by largest racial group are indexed against their average residence price in 2000. By the time of George W. Bush’s 2002 White House Conference on Increasing Minority Homeownership, Hispanic plurality communities are starting to take the lead in price gains and pull away through 2006, then drop catastrophically from 2007 to 2009.

recent academic study of a big panel of households found that mortgage delinquency rates among Hispanics were 4.7 times the rate among whites by 2009.

The big run up in home prices was to a notable extent a Ponzi scheme based to a striking extent on the notion that there was a never-ending quantity and unimpeachable quality of people moving in from somewhere south of the border, and that it would be racist to question whether they would be able to earn enough to pay back their mortgages or to make desirable enough neighborhoods to sell out to somebody else.

By the way, this graph explains in large part why Bush did moderately well with Hispanics in 2004, winning about 40% of their vote, while the equally pro-immigration McCain won only 31% in 2008: Bush’s “Ownership Society” was intended in part to turn Hispanics into Republicans by making it easy for them to get loans to buy homes. Times were very good for Hispanics by November 2004, as the Housing Bubble put mortgages into their hands and provided lots of jobs in contructions, real estate, and mortgage selling. By November 2008, Hispanics had been hammered economically by the popping of the Hispanic Housing Bubble.

Of course, everybody else in the media seems to interpret the difference in Hispanic share between Bush and McCain as proving that the GOP needs to open the floodgates even wider.

As for blacks and the Housing Bubble, well, we hear a lot about “lenders of last resort.” But, judging by this graph, black communities apparently served as borrowers of last resort.

Of course, this study [PDF] is oblivious to the obvious, and instead pounds the drums for more hair of the dog that bit us:
A House Divided:
How Race Colors the Path to Homeownership
Key Findings
Fewer minorities apply for conventional mortgages. Although Hispanics and blacks make up 17 percent and 12 percent the U.S. population, respectively, they represented only 5 percent and 3 percent of the conventional mortgage application pool.
Blacks experience the highest loan application denial rates. 1 in 4 blacks will be denied their conventional loan application, as opposed to 1 in 10 whites.
Wide disparities in homeownership rates among ethnic groups persist. 73.9 percent of whites own a home, whereas 60.9 percent of Asians, 50.9 percent of Hispanics, and 46.5 percent of blacks own.
The rise and subsequent fall of home values in the U.S. housing bubble disproportionately affected black and Hispanic homeowners, measured by indexed home values between the peak of the market and the bottom, or “trough.”
“It’s been more than 50 years since Dr. King fought for equality, yet it is apparent that the American dream of homeownership is not equally shared by all, even today. Our research shows that minority home buyers are encountering difficulties that often aren’t shared by white home buyers, and that even after they achieve the dream, they have been less likely to see a similar return on their investment.”
Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief Economist

So, buckle up because influential people are starting to want to go for another ride on the Diversity Lending Rollercoaster.

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  • Speaking of Steve Sailer:

    I bet by now he knows more about Stanley Fischer than Stanley Fischer knows about Stanley Fischer.

  • Oil Can Harry

    It’s been apparent for years now that Obama is re-inflating the housing bubble.

    His racist AG Eric Holder is still hounding banks for their “racist lending policies” i.e. failing to give 30 year loans to black and hispanic welfare bums with bad credit and zero collateral.

    • NeanderthalDNA

      Hey…if you are Black and act like an imbecile you are far more likely to be rewarded by “society” than if you are White and mind your own business.

      • NeanderthalDNA

        As if the genetics were not problematic enough we insist on screwing up the Skinnerian behaviorist controls as well – rewarding stupidity and destructiveness.
        I think if we are to look at any environmental explanations for Black and some Hispanic pathologies, we should look at how we enable such by encouraging the very “External locus of control” mindset in them, as groups and individuals, that we identify as a major component of many personality disorders.
        Liblefty quasi-Marxism is far more cruel to the less able than any other ideological system imaginable, in the big picture. It awards stupidity, punished wisdom, fans the “witch hunt” mentality so obviously a part of the low IQ Bantu to this very day in “the motherland” as the “Bantu Follies” subsection of Amren shows on a regular basis.
        And our precious prezzy and his high yaller Hitler just want to fan that witch hunt attitude all they can.

    • Fathercoughlin

      Stupid black clods who havent got a ghost of a chance to pay back the loans. But we cant talk about that;SHHHHHHHH the YKW is listening…

    • Katherine McChesney

      Holder is pressuring them to use EBT and Welfare monies as sources of income on their loan applications.

  • Jesse James

    Hispanics may be the leading group in terms of the national housing bubble but blacks are up to their necks in the housing scams around the metro-Atlanta area. I would love to seem some statistics showing the numbers and race of home buyers who got zero down mortgages and never paid a single payment nor spent a nickle on home maintenance. There is a lot more fraud and theft behind these housing “meltdowns” than they want to admit. Nor do I let the real estate and banking professionals off the hook, they know fully well that they are often selling properties to people that can’t afford them, don’t have credit worthy histories, and don’t understand the basic terms of the contract. I would also love to know how many of these deadbeats take out home improvement loans and then blow the money. They only leave the homes when forced and can occupy one without paying for years.

    • Massif1

      I have seen single family homes in Suwanee/Duluth occupied by a black family with a lot of extended family members as well. Yep, there goes the neighborhood.

    • Sick of it

      I knew one such black family which lived in a house for 6 years without paying a dime for it then tore out the copper wiring, fixtures, etc. before vacating the premises.

      • Mark Hillyard

        My brother bought at the height of the mortgage problem and lost it all. He bought a small mountain cabin he intended to fix up and live in. When he got behind on his mortgage he attempted to pay the bank but they wouldn’t allow that nor would they accept any rent for his two year stay there not paying a dime. The bank just told him to wait until the foreclosure came through and then they paid him $3000.00 to move out.
        Confuse me!

        • Sick of it

          Honestly, don’t deal with a normal bank when you take out a mortgage. They screw people over all of the time. Big lenders, excepting the bad seeds like EMC (a JPMorgan company), will take lower than normal payments to keep you out of foreclosure. Regular banks are cash or carry. Wells Fargo always works with people. Citi often works with people, and, if I recall correctly, Countrywide worked with people.

          • Jesse James

            Good advice.

      • Fathercoughlin

        Whenever I hear of a house for sale by some black celebrity,I get a little disgusted. I mean, buy a house lived in by…blacks? UGH!

        • Katherine McChesney

          Can you imagine the condition obama and family will leave the White House in IF he doesn’t decide to force his re-election for a third term? Wouldn’t be surprised if they painted the private quarters in Halloween colors. Don’t know what it is about blacks that they love orange and black for house colors.

      • bluffcreek1967

        In other words, they acted like the typical black renter!

    • Mark Hillyard

      I was told that if I wanted to “own” a home I’d have to lie about my (lack of) wealth. I’m still a home renter.
      Would the lie pay the mortgage? That’s how I looked at it.

      • Jesse James

        I really think the old way was better. People used to have to save for years maybe even a decade to get a good 25% or so to put down. What some people don’t understand in this day of zero down anybody gets a loan is that the process of having to diligently save, to do without some things means that you have some real skin in the transaction. It also means that you have developed some personal finance management skills and have demonstrated the ability to avoid the instant gratification of consumer items and fancy vacations etc because you have a saving plan that you need to stick to. That same plan that allowed you to save means that when you buy the house you are already in the habit of putting money aside and living below your means. It also means you usually won’t buy too much house.

        In short you did absolutely the right thing to not take a liar’s loan. Like many shortcuts you would be just cheating yourself in the long run.

        • Sick of it

          Since fewer people got loans, the price of housing was also lower. The market can bear higher prices because institutions are willing to finance at those prices. My grandparents paid a rather small sum for their homes decades ago.

        • In my own case, my down-payment came out of a $100,000 payout for one of my patents, so I didn’t really have to save for it. That said, I also made accelerated payments on the mortgage, and I already had a housesitter when the FBI arrested me in 2000, as I was planning to return to Australia, so I kept the house through three years of incarceration. The year after my release I paid off the mortgage.

          People “buying too much house” – a term I also use a lot – is a major problem. Lots of couples get into a mortgage that they can’t meet on only one income. What happens when one of them is laid off from work? I’d like more space, but I can pull in enough doing work out of the basement that Sayaka could quit working and we’d still have enough for groceries, insurance and utilities. We both prefer she stay current in her career in case something happens to me.

          When I still had a mortgage – a conventional, fixed-rate 20-year – my payment was $692 a month. The two-bedroom apartment I had rented before buying my townhouse cost $740 a month, and I had had less than half as much space, no unfinished basement for a workshop and a single carport instead of an attached two-car garage. I wasn’t just saving money off the top, either. Early on in a mortgage, most of what one is paying is interest, so one isn’t building equity quickly, but the interest on a mortgage is tax-deductible, and I had a real job back then. I was probably really only paying half of that old $740 apartment rent once I bought.

          A mortgage can either be a trap or the money-saver from Heaven. How much house to buy is the most important element.

  • Biff_Maliboo

    Should have invested in turquoise and gold house paint.

    • Mark Hillyard

      It’s the purple ones that get me.

      • Katherine McChesney

        I’ve seen blacks houses painted orange and black…halloween colors.

  • Massif1

    The housing bubble is a result of poor management by the banks and their idiotic mortgage giveaways to people that clearly had to business receiving mortgages.
    As a side note, blacks are again victims of “racism” according to Dr. Stan Humphries. Obama administration will soon go after credit history and the way FICA scores are being calculated. If you’re black, you’d be exempt from paying on time. So you can spend money without caring about your credit history the repercussions that come with misuse of the credit cards.

    • Pro_Whitey

      Two other factors. (1) the Fed was pumping so much money into the economy, the banks had to push it through, and the government made it quite clear where it wanted the banks to push it. (2) if the banks did not extend credit, they would get sued as rayciss. Ultimately, the government made this happen, although the banks tap danced as fast as they could to try to make a buck in the process.
      This reminds me of a new story the other day when Sen. Elizabeth Warren (commie – Mass.) was hailing new lending standards so that a bank would not lend until it knows that the borrower is capable of paying. HA! That is precisely the type of system people like Warren decried as racism because it led to fewer loans to blacks and browns. Once that happens again, we’ll have loosening of standards, and so on and so on.
      By the way, Dr. King “fought” for stuff? I thought he was Mr. Nonviolence? In my book, he was the good cop of a good cop-bad cop team, and the bad cops were the black radicals threatening violence unless we did what they said. All King did was try to assure us that we might not have violence if we did what they said.

      • Anon

        It’s far worse than that. All the people we call “government” are the exact same people in charge of all businesses especially banks.
        When you say the “government” pushed “banks” to do this, it implies resistance. There is no resistance as both those writing the laws in government and those making the decisions as high ranking employees in banks (and all other businesses) are the same exact people.
        The decisions to give banks an excuse to make bad loans, those banks to actually make those loans, were made together. With the long term plan of a bailout already agreed upon. In other words, TARRP was a done deal before the first black got the first loan.

        • My mother is a retired banker. When she tells me to do things with money, I do it right away. She’s not corrupt, but she reads the financial pages in every newspaper she can lay her hands upon. My 401(k) made 20% last month.

          Bankers are not evil; they are just professional bankers.

  • Luca

    Here in lovely So Cal. where I am forced to live for the moment, I thought I would go house hunting after the housing crash to upgrade my living conditions. My former neighborhood had taken on a hip, vibrant, cultural diversity makeover evidenced by graffiti, mariachi music at 1 AM, fruit vendors on street corners, cars parked on the front lawns and abandoned shopping carts.

    We look at some once beautiful 4-bedroom homes that had been previously occupied by hispanics crowding one family into each bedroom and another in the living room. They had stoves installed on the outdoor patio and we saw the impression of refrigerators stamped into the living room carpet. After they couldn’t make the payments any longer they stripped the house of everything: air conditioners, ceiling fans, light fixtures, toilets, and even the light switches and headed back down to Mexico. Apparently they didn’t mind their chihuahuas pooping on the rug either. I imagine before they left they ran up all there credit cards to the max and took off in a fairly new car they had just bought on credit.

    Thanks to liberal politicians, lax immigration enforcement and sanctuary cities, this is the kind of despair you can expect in the future.

    • Bossman

      Is it selling for a million Dollars and if it is why is that?

  • Spartacus

    Don’t worry, Whitey will bail them out because, you know, rayseezm and sheet .

  • AutomaticSlim

    Blacks or hispanics, it really does not matter.

    Social engineering is what caused the recession. I am certain of this.
    The government, by vigorously enforcing the CRA, forced the banks to lend to blacks, hispanics, and other ultra high risk borrowers. These are the same types of people who don’t pay their rent and wait 6 months for the Marshals to throw them out of the apartment.
    The banks knew they would lose money, but were forced to comply or be harassed by the fed, and even worse, be branded racist.So in order to make money they came up with all sorts of exotic ways to package junk mortgages to investors. And this is what you read about in the NY Times. How the banks stuck the American public with junk. But they never speak one word about why it happened. Social engineering, specially giving outrageous advantages to grossly undeserving minorities caused the economic downturn we are still experiencing. Is Wall Street partly to blame? I suppose one can make a small case for that. I would figure less than 10%. The rest of the blame goes directly to the Fed. Which should be no surprise. As 90%+ of ALL American problems have been caused by the Fed and ultra socialists starting with Wilson, then FDR, LBJ, Carter, Clinton and this thing that’s in the White House now. Even the Rs were very bad for the U.S. Eisenhower was wrong to back Brown vs. Board of Ed, Nixon greatly increased welfare programs, Reagan (who was the best of the bunch, but still not so good) gave amnesty to 1 million illegals. There seems to be no end in sight.

    • bilderbuster

      Mr. Conservative Reagan also gave us the MLK holiday.
      Lets not forget that.

  • Tim_in_Indiana

    “It’s been more than 50 years since Dr. King fought for equality, yet it is apparent that the American dream of homeownership is not equally shared by all, even today.”

    Right, and when whites achieve the dream, the still have to worry about “diversity” moving in and destroying the value of all that they have worked so hard for.

    • Sure, homeownership is a dream, but one must make the appropriate financial decisions. Do I buy a pimp-mobile and “afawete” clothes or save the money for a down-payment on a conventional fixed-rate mortgage?

      I bought my townhouse in 1996 after house-shopping for an entire year, and one of the Indian engineers at work immediately pitched a pure fit. He had spent every cent he made on clothes, eating out, and a car he leased, but still imagined that a house would fall out of the sky and land in his lap.

      I got everything I wanted with my home: a quiet neighborhood, mature trees, a two-car garage, an unfinished basement, 2100 square feet, two bedrooms, two and a half baths. $119,900. I initially asked my real-estate agent to show me stuff for under $100,000, and was disappointed with the results, so I upped my request to places between $105K and $125K. I suspected I would not be pre-approved for a loan on good terms for over $120K, so I waited until my sellers were a little desperate, and they came down on the price.

      Purchasing a house is one of the most important financial decisions most people will make in their lives (getting married is the other). One absolutely must do this right. I made the proper decision here. I paid it off in 2004.

      How did I get there? I didn’t use drugs in high school, I graduated from college in a STEM field, and busted my butt at work. I also have no sense of humor whatsoever when it comes to money: none.

      Where does this place the “American Dream”? In its proper perspective. If you don’t gots ta be haben dat shiny ting, you can buy a reasonable place and pay it off before you are 50.

      • bigone4u

        Good for you. I also paid my mortgage off after a few years. What is disgusting is how the current racial spoils system rewards poor behavior. Economically speaking, today we live in a house of cards since the deadbeats hold the power.

  • John K

    Many people are getting denied loans or refinancing, but I see the illegal invaders grinning from ear to ear when I’m at the bank; it’s because they get the loans even though they shouldn’t be in the country. Blacks still got theirs, too. The housing “crisis” was engineered, and Hispanics and blacks were the tools used to carry it out.

  • bigone4u

    So, Mexicans articially drove up house prices while driving down wages. Then comes the crash, with falling house prices, falling employment, and even lower wages. Triple screwed we were. And with amnesty the powers that be want us to bend over again. Not this man!

  • Ella

    Even after the housing crash in Southern California, the housing prices on foreclosures were still too high for the average educated couple. To pay on a $350,000 mortgage with family and never-ending CA/Fed taxes, it still leaves one feeling “strapped” for cash.

    • If I were you, I would look for a place you could afford on one income. That way, if one of you gets laid off, you can still keep your house. I paid off my house before I got married and had a lawyer draw up an ironclad prenuptial agreement. I wanted my home to be a pre-existing asset. If you think Jews are nasty about money, try Scotsmen.

  • Chris Granzow XI

    Libtards and retarded blacks will then look at the racial breakdown and proclaim that “racism” and systemic “white supremacism” are to blame. I’ve heard some crazy stories about these minority mortgage applications. Someone is a single parent with four kids, who works at McDonalds, has a car loan they still have to pay off and expects to get a $160k loan? What white person would even have the guts to sit down face to face with an application like that and not turn red in the face from embarrassment? Their applications are ridiculous and their financial histories are a mess. That’s why they get denied at higher rates.

  • Juan Outtamany

    Latinos are more pioneering. They move en mass to nice neighborhoods… and ruin them. Blacks for the most part stay put in the hood.

    • Jesse James

      Not where I live. The metro-Atlanta area over the past fifty years has been one repetition of the same pattern over and over. Whites fled the central urban area when blacks were allowed to take over several large originally whites only government low income housing areas. The first suburbs were literally in sight of downtown Atlanta. Once laws allowing racial discrimination in housing were repealed and replaced by strong Federal equal opportunity housing laws one neighborhood after another was invaded by blacks. Crime increases, blacks fail to maintain standards of yard and home maintenance, local schools become untenable for whites, walking down the sidewalks in your neighborhood becomes unpleasant and sometimes dangerous, white flee in droves to a new exterior ring of suburbs. Rinse and repeat over and over and over again.

      • We had someone playing that “thump thump thump” music out of their car here six or seven years ago, so I screamed “Oogabooga” out the open window at the top of my lungs. Strangely, I never heard that “music” again. It is a very quiet neighborhood now.

      • Bossman

        You’re giving an example of what Blacks do to a neighborhood which unfortunately is true in many parts of the USA.

    • Bossman

      From my observation, Mexicans usually move into neighborhoods deserted by Blacks and they usually make something out of it.

  • Or murdered.

  • Mark Hillyard

    “to turn Hispanics into Republicans” Is it just as simple as that, politicians would ruin a country just to get a vote?
    Seems kinda corrupt to me.

    • IstvanIN

      Politicians have been ruining countries for there own short-term gains and short-sighted agendas for quite some time.

  • Sick of it

    You don’t have to tell me about it, I used to work in a related industry. Saw the above all of the time.

    • Jesse James

      I just tagged on your line Sick because LHathaway’s hadn’t posted yet and I was going to be gone all day today. I wanted to have some clarification of my earlier post.

  • bilderbuster

    So what else is new?
    A Jewish person wants to loan White peoples money to Hispanics & Blacks who will never pay us back & then demand more.

  • bilderbuster

    Blacks & Hispanics getting loans from Jewish banks & then the National Socialist government using the German people’s money to pay off the banks?
    What’s wrong with this picture?

  • emiledurk16

    What a foolhardy and destructive idea. An affirmative action program for home ownership.

    Lets see, tell all mortgage lenders a) down payments are not necessary b) accept applications from anyone who’s not white regardless of their probability of being able to make payments. Collecting unemployment and welfare are now legimate forms of income on applications, and don’t deny anyone who’s not white who’s showing either as a form of income.

    Banking director: “But sir, these applicants will not be viable and cost us millions.”

    And here’s the biggest wrondoing of all.

    Banking executive’s response: “We can’t lose. We’re gettin bailed out by the taxpayer when this doesn’t work.”

    Also repossession is illegal and, “after these unqualified applicants don’t pay, we’ll have to change our terms and lower the interest rate, and give them an unlimited time to pay with no late fees.”

    Liberal politican to big banker: “We ruined the economy, but we showed that diversity is our greatest strenght.”

    Madness.

    • You forgot “We’ll package these absurd loans as tranches and dump them onto the international market.”

      Part of my 401(k) was a bonds and mortgages account, so I divested myself of that. I initially wanted it as a more stable reserve against the more volatile stock market. Indexed stock funds are much better.

  • Bossman

    This article and graph is not making much sense. Houses in Hispanic communities were overvalued? Aren’t they supposed to be poor immigrants and in many cases illegal? Were these Hispanic majority communities in Miami? So lenders had a lot of faith in Hispanics? why? According to the people who post at this website, Mexicans and other Hispanics are just stupid low IQ illegal Mestizos who come here to collect government benefits. So how come the lenders were giving them preferential treatment?

    • Max Krakah

      IS that a rhetorical question? Don’t you know why?Does the name Barney Frank mean anything to you?Barney Frank and his gang were threatening the banks with lawsuits for discrimination. They forced the banks to make these loans but tried to soften it by having the government guarantee the loans. That is how WE ended up paying for this. Don’t you remember the bank bailouts?

      • emiledurk16

        That’s the way I remember it.

    • Max Krakah

      Houses in the hispanic communities WERE overvalued. When everyone could all of a sudden get loans then demand for houses skyrocketed. Credit is like inflation. The government increased the money supply in the market place by forcing banks to give loans. AS houses increased in value people started seeing it as an investment scheme and then things REALLY heated up. Four or more families would buy ONE house. I know this from personal experience from when I lived in Everett MA. I lived right next door to one of these houses. There were about 20 different people that came and went from that place. There was no parking anywhere on the street and old time residents started towing people parked in front of their house. I had a spot I rented behind the apartment building where I lived. Once , they were resurfacing it and I had to park somewhere down the street. I had a residents sticker but that didn’t prevent the owner of the house from calling to have me towed. The old timers in the neighborhood were fed up with the mexicans and assumed, since they didn’t recognize my car, it belonged to one of them.
      The mexicans would have loud parties into the night and also blast their horrid music from the back of their hondas. When they had parties they would have their front door open and mexicans from all over would be coming over and going in and out and hanging out drunk on the porch. Luckily that was the only house on the street like that, Still, I moved.

      • Bossman

        All I can say is that those Mexicans are not so stupid and lazy as we like to think and can be players in the system.

        • Max Krakah

          Players in the system? Then why did so many default? You want to try it again and cover those bad loans again or are you capable of learning fem experience?

  • Max Krakah

    It didn’t take a genius to figure out that there was something seriously wrong with the housing bubble. Mexicans and Guatemalans in the MA area would buy a house in a suburb. They would move four families in to pay the mortgage. So a nice quiet suburb would then have the streets clogged with parked cars around the house, and they would be working night shifts as well, so there was always coming and going , as well a loud parties into the night. It became an investment scheme where it became common for several families to go in together on buying a home. That did drive costs up and some did resell before the bubble burst. It was easy to see that it was going to crash.

    • In many areas there are limits on how many non-related people can occupy a single family home. These laws were originally intended – I suspect – to prevent college students from ruining otherwise nice neighborhoods.

      The Greaseritos are now complaining that this is “racism”.

      • Max Krakah

        Massachusetts is so messed up that they never enforced these rules on the hispanics just out of fear of being called “prejudiced”. Through an acquaintance, who was Brazillian, and illegal, I visited a couple of apartments where there were five people sharing a bedroom, mattresses on the floor. Rents in the Boston area skyrocketed because of this. Students never would pack themselves in like that. Don’t even get me started on how they drive. Once I was at the Weston toll booths on the mass pike heading west. I had waited in line , there had been about a ten car backup at the booth. A small car with five hispanics crammed in it tried to cut the whole line and cut in right in front of me. I didn’t let it, when we got to the barrier and he still hadn’t gotten in he got out of the car and darted cursing me. I had the same kind of cursing tirade hurled at me in a rotary in Everett. Once again, a mexican or guatemalan or brazillian wanted to creed by everyone and then cut in front of me to get on 99. I wouldn’t have it though and after he couldn’t take the exit he started road raging me and cut me off and opened his door and did the exact same thing as the other guy. It was actually funny.

        • Katherine McChesney

          In L.A. Mexicans participate in ‘swoop and squat’ games on the freeways with crooked lawyers to collect insurance for ‘injuries’. This is how many of them make their money.

        • Zaporizhian Sich

          I’d be fingering the grip of a pistol in your shoes, because these Latrinos are dangerous people who will kill you at any opportunity. Better for five of them to be found dead of gunshot wounds to the face than you being found with your heart cut out literally, they carry knives and they murder scores of whites every year that way.