Did Race Play a Role in Shutdown?

Several liberal political commentators asserted that this month’s government shutdown was rooted in racist opposition to President Obama (see: 1, 2 ,3, 4, 5). Actors Chris Noth and Robert Redford even joined the chorus, with Noth tweeting, “[The] Highest level of racism was shown yesterday when Republicans forced a shutdown of our government.  Mostly because our President is black.” Conservatives were understandably quick to dismiss such charges. Or as Mitt Romney’s chief strategist, Stuart Stevens, put it, “There’s certainly racism left in America, but liberal pundits claiming it’s driving the government shutdown make a mockery of the real thing.”

Of course, neither side provided much evidence to support their claims.  Nor is it possible to quantify how much, if at all, Obama’s race may have mattered in the budget standoff.  But we can still glean some insights into the racialized dynamics of the shutdown by examining who voted against last week’s bipartisan deal to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling (H.R 2775).  More specifically, we can test whether Republican members of the House who represent congressional districts where “racial resentment” is high were more likely to vote against the bill.

This analysis leverages two large surveys with almost 100,000 respondents in total — the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project — to calculate the average level of racial resentment in each congressional district. Racial resentment, as it is described in the scholarly literature, measures how much individuals think racial inequality is due to the inner failings of African Americans. {snip}

The graph below shows how likely each Republican in the House was to vote yes on the shutdown/debt ceiling deal, given their district’s estimated level of racial resentment. Republican members from districts scoring high on racial resentment were considerably more likely to vote against H.R. 2275 than other Republicans. {snip}

This result holds up once other factors are taken into account. In the graph below, the blue line shows that the relationship between district-level racial resentment and voting against the shutdown deal persisted after accounting for other attributes of congressional districts, including partisanship, ideological orientation, religiosity, and minority population. The results also were not affected by controlling for Republicans’ own individual ideologies. Notably, racial resentment in districts did not affect the House vote to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) earlier this year — legislation that, like the shutdown deal, passed with a minority of Republicans. It appears, then, that the relationship between district-level racial resentment and the shutdown vote was not merely politics as usual.

{snip}