The central purpose of the Schumer-Rubio bill (S.744) is to reduce future illegal immigration. In fact, Sen. Chuck Schumer has said that its passage would mean “Illegal immigration will be a thing of the past.”

But the Center for Immigration Studies finds that the new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the legislation confirms that the bill will almost completely fail in this regard. According to CBO, if S.744 passes, “the net annual flow of unauthorized residents would decrease by 25 percent.” Because S.744 fails to stem a larger portion of illegal immigration, CBO projects that nearly 5 million new illegal immigrants and their children will be living in the United States 10 years after the bill passes.

Among CBO’s findings:

    • CBO projects 4.8 million new illegal immigrants and their U.S.-born children will be living in the country by 2023 if the bill becomes law, compared to 6.4 million without it – a mere 25% reduction in future illegal immigration (page 23).
    • CBO projections mean that in the first ten years after the passage of S.744, new illegal immigration will add nearly 500,000 illegal residents and their children to the U.S. population each year.
    • CBO projects that by 2033 7.5 million new illegal immigrants and their U.S.-born children will be in the country if the bill passes, compared to 10 million without the bill, so even in the very long term S.744 only reduces illegal immigration by 25% (page 23).
    • To be clear, the 4.8 million new illegal immigrants and their children in the country by 2023 and the 6.4 million by 2033 are new arrivals, plus the children they will have once here.
    • One of the reasons that illegal immigration will remain so high, according to CBO, is the bill itself will encourage illegal immigration. CBO states, “aspects of the bill would probably increase the number of unauthorized residents – in particular, people overstaying their visas issued under the new programs for temporary workers”(page 23).
    • None of the costs associated with the 4.8 million illegals and their children in 2023 or the 7.5 million in 2033 are considered by CBO because they are assumed to be part of the “baseline” costs that would exist anyway. CBO only “scores” changes from the baseline. Thus, the projected slight fall off in illegal immigration (25%) is scored as a positive by CBO, no matter how large the actual costs of new illegal immigrants and their children.

Explaining CBO projections of future illegal immigration

On page 23 of its report CBO projects future levels of illegal immigration. Like much in the CBO report, the discussion of future illegal immigration is not particularly clear. However, CBO does state, “the net annual flow of unauthorized residents would decrease by about 25 percent relative to what would occur under current law, resulting in a reduction in the U.S. population (including a reduction in the number of children born in the United States) relative to that benchmark of 1.6 million in 2023 and 2.5 million in 2033.” Thus, according to CBO, the total new illegal immigrant population (plus children) would have been 6.4 million by 2023, but will be 4.8 million if S.744 passes, which is 25 percent (1.6 million) smaller than it otherwise would have been. By 2033 the illegal population (plus children) will be 7.5 million which is 25% (2.5 million) smaller than the 10 million it would otherwise have been.

The costs of S.744

CBO also estimates the costs of S.744. But how those costs are calculated is not clearly explained, so they are difficult to evaluate. It is the intention of the Center for Immigration Studies to evaluate these cost estimates in future publications.

See the report from a 2010 Center symposium on “The Politics and Practicalities of Exit Controls” at

Topics: , ,

Share This

We welcome comments that add information or perspective, and we encourage polite debate. If you log in with a social media account, your comment should appear immediately. If you prefer to remain anonymous, you may comment as a guest, using a name and an e-mail address of convenience. Your comment will be moderated.
  • BonusGift

    I agree with you. Another way to state it is that the goal is to bring in more Marxist voters (likely democrats but at some point they may drift to other socialist/Marxist overlords that offer more magic beans), and continually grind down wages and further gut any pretense at having a middle class.

    • Anna Tree

      Or as Hirschibold said: “I think the changes happening in the US are not to transfer power to Hispanics or Blacks (or in Europe to Muslims) but to decrease the power of the white middle- and working-class, who are still capable of opposing their elites. Once the US is majority-minority, it’s the end of a democratic rule, a small white elite will have absolute power like
      the Sinaloa white elite in Mexico, or the whites in Brazil and in the rest of South America.”

      He also said: “they want dumb people who don’t ask questions, who are docile enough to not challenge the state or revolt, but just violent enough to undermine working and middle-class whites who could potentially challenge the Globalists successfully.”

      • BonusGift

        You are correct; I guess the Romans had it down by simply asking: “Cui bono (To whose benefit?)?” As you point out (and if the free Latin translator worked correctly for me) we should be asking: Ad cuius amissionem (To whose loss?)?”

        • Erasmus

          For what it’s worth, if you want to use the same construction as “Cui bono?”, you’d simply say, “Cui amissioni?”

          Watch the clowns and criminals at work in government and you always conclude that there is nothing new under the sun.

  • The__Bobster

    The central purpose of the Schumer-Rubio bill (S.744) is to reduce future illegal immigration.

    Yeah, who really believes that’s the purpose of the bill?

    It’s to flood the country with ugly brown squat monsters, both legal and illegal, to lower wages and keep the Democrats in power forever. Too bad the Dems can’t see that the Mestizos will want control within a generation.

    • bigone4u

      By disempowering whites, as you suggest, the Dems will be completely overtaken by the 90 IQ “squat monsters.” There will be no opposition to the kind of harebrained schemes that characterize Latin America. Welcome to the “turd world,” a world of crime, cruelty to animals, massive inflation, lying, and bribery. Someone should come to south Texas and do a documentary. The turd world is already here.

    • Erasmus

      Honest conservatives (and even some honest democrats) who remember Simpson-Mazzoli do not support Schumer-Rubio.

      They remember what a failure the 1st amnesty, in 1986, was. They also know there won’t be a lick of difference this 2nd time around.

  • David Ashton

    Important analysis. Will your elected representatives understand it, agree with it, and act on it?

    • Tinfoil A22hat

      “We have to pass it so you can know what’s in it”, or something to that effect.

  • bigone4u

    Schumer and Rubio. Too bad they’re not gay or I would suggest they get married to each other. A true match made in hell when they conspire against us..

    • IstvanIN

      Why should same-sex marriage be limited to gays?

    • Puggg

      Would it be untoward of me to step in here and make a Lindsay Graham joke?

  • Anna Tree

    To agree to amnesty in hope that the border will at least be enforced is like to let your house burn down because you plan to buy a fire alarm.

    Another betrayal by our politicians/elites/media.

  • IstvanIN

    Reward bad behavior and you get more of it. Even the most primitive tribe knows that.

  • Non Humans

    So 6.4 mil more illegals without and 4.8 mil more illegals with it by 2023. Then 10 mil more illegals without and 7.5 mil more illegals with it by 2033. Besides the fact that these numbers seem deviously conservative, thats X amount stated above plus however many Illegal squat-monsters that they plan to legalize?
    They tell us 11 million illegals now, they told us that number in 1986 as well. Wanna bet that they will try to use that deceptive amount when they pull this crap again 10 and 20 years from now?
    Schumer and Rubio…I thought treason was one of the highest crimes in the land?

  • mobilebay

    Rubio says illegals will have no benefits until they’re legalized, and that the bill will save billions. He must mean that no children of illegals can flood our classrooms, therefore no translators needed, a big cut in free lunch programs, no rent subsidies nor food stamps. Hospital ERs will be illegal-free… Wow! I’m on a roll. I can see the savings accumulating now. Let’s see what else we can save on, because I’m sure the above will happen. Rubio told me so.

    • Ella

      Our schools are already flooded with illegals. It costs US tax payers about 9-10 billion p/y. I guess no protests will ever occur because the Feds print or borrow the monies. Even our best charter/magnet schools have 1-40% Whites that don’t even represent the State population. You have the token few of course as our children are left behind in mostly, poor to fair public schools. Since last year, White babies are the minority group now and will only become worse in a decade.

  • me

    In other news, the landing of a strange craft on the White House lawn has revealed that the craft is manned by representatives from Mars. They have come seeking asylum, and that they want the same rights as mapped out in the Shumer-Rubio Bill. The Martians claim that they want to peacefully settle in the most powerful nation on earth, with the goal of integrating into the American culture. A spokesman for the Martian Immigration Movement stated that “We have no intention of replacing you humanoids. Nor do we have a plan to take over your planet and terraforming earth into a more Martian-hospitable environment. That’s the furthest thing from our mind. We just want to dwell in peace with the people of your country….Of course, there are specific needs and requirements that Martians have in order to feel comfortable among the humans, but we can see that your species’ leaders are most accommodating….”

    • Reminds me of that new series “Defiance” on the SyFy channel, that I’m watching for the obvious reason.

    • David Ashton

      And the POTUS replied….

  • Erasmus

    Schumer-Rubio is never, ever, ever, even in the years ahead, going to go down well with conservative voters. In fact, if it ever passes, (God forbid), the number of Americans of every political stripe, who realize what a bad bill it is, will continue to grow, and Little Ricky will spend the next two decades having to raise a white flag just to come up for air.

    Just like Wile E. Coyote, Marco Rubio is going to hoist himself on his own petard.
    Schadenfreude is such a sweet thing.