How Gang Members Behave Like Animals, and Maths Experts Are Now Predicting Where They Will Fight Rivals with 99% Accuracy

Amanda Williams, Daily Mail (London), March 26, 2013

Maths experts have used geometric equations learned from wild animals to predict the location of fights between rival gangs with almost 99 per cent accuracy.

Jeffrey Brantingham, an anthropologist at UCLA, in California, who uses statistics to study crime, has employed a theory devised by Alfred Lotka, an American statistician, and Vito Volterra, an Italian mathematician, in the 1920s.

The pair observed that similarly sized rival groups of a species – from lions to hyenas – claim territories whose boundaries form a perpendicular line halfway between each group’s home, be it a den or a beehive.

Their findings – called the Lotka- Volterra equations – have been long used as a staple of ecological theory.

Brantingham applied it to 13 equally sized criminal gangs from the Boyle Heights neighborhood of Los Angeles’ East Side.

He and his team, aided by police, identified an area or ‘anchor point’ which functioned as the gang’s home base and used the Lotka- Volterra equation to draw borders between the turfs, Smithsonian.com reports.

Brantingham said that according to the equation, if the gangs are equal in ability, the boundary between them was equi-distant and perpendicular between their anchor points. He added: ‘It’s a nice, simple, geometric organization.’

According to the equations, researchers then predicted where the violence between the rivals gangs was most likely to take place. They predicted 58.8 per cent would occur less than a fifth of a mile from the borders, 87.5 per cent within two-fifths of a mile and 99.8 per cent within a mile.

Analysis of 563 gang-related shootings in the area between 1999 and 2002, showed researchers their predictions were almost exactly accurate, with the location of real-life shootings being 58.2 per cent, 83.1 per cent and 97.7 per cent, respectively.

Brantingham, who said his mapping method better reflects criminal activity than other police methods because it is not dictated to by geography,  is continuing to test the territory maps.

The team hope their model could provide a valuable tool for police departments in stemming gang violence and how best to locate police resources.

Brantingham said it could be employed when two gangs appear in an area for the first time.

He said: ‘Where should you put your police resources? This model does a relatively good job of figuring that out before any violence even happens.’

Brantingham said millions of years of evolution have created similar solutions to common problems, ‘regardless of what species you’re talking about.’

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• MekongDelta69

Gang bangers ARE wild animals…

• MobyWhite

Stop offending wild animals. Just say gang bangers are black genetic experiments that prove what we’ve always suspected. Stereotypes are justified, hatred should thrive.

• dd121

We can predict but not control their behavior. Hmmmmm.

• a multiracial individual

We could do much to crush gang violence if the PC zealots would untie our hands.

• The__Bobster

If I had to confirm this hypothesis, I’d do it from a distance…..a long distance.

• They predicted 58.8 per cent would occur less than a fifth of a mile from the borders, 87.5 per cent within two-fifths of a mile and 99.8 per cent within a mile.

It doesn’t take an equation to figure this out. And to be honest, 99.8% within a mile isn’t that accurate of a prediction. It’s like hitting the outer ring on a big target.

• That’s what street gangs are, just groups of criminally inclined people (ahem) defending a certain territory for exclusive rights to a certain economic factor (usually dealing illicit drugs). Why wouldn’t fights between gangs be over territory and on the relative borders between their turfs?

• Felix_M

But, whereas wild animals, even the most dangerous ones, sometimes have their cuddly moments, gang-bangers never do.

• 48224

Profilin’ be racis’

• MobyWhite

Geometric equations be rayciss en sheeet all up en hee’ah.

• brengunn

As a tool for police, it would only be helpful in reducing inter-gang violence. It wouldn’t help at all in other gang criminality, like drug dealing, prostitution, protection rackets etc. which I presume happen in their heartlands. So, having extra foot patrols and police cars drive the contact points would only enable gangs to have more profitable enterprises in their hood, due to lack of police resources.

• Svigor

Gangs will figure out the patrols and adapt, defying the model.

• Police in big cities don’t foot patrol, well at least in Chicago.

• Luca

By interchanging certain findings and time-tested theories of Newton, Fibonacci and Riemann, and downloading them into a new software program developed at Stanford, an amazingly accurate formula has been discovered by mathematicians at MIT whereby they can accurately predict where crime is most likely to occur.

As it turns out, findings show that if you are located in any predominantly black neighborhood for more than 15 minutes you stand a 99.997% chance of being raped, mugged or murdered. But not necessarily in that order.

Ain’t science grand?

• Anon

Amazing how so many words can be wasted without coming to the point.

What are CONCLUSIONS from these observations, other than an emotional and irrational comparison to animals. Oh, and by the way, this model is often used as a predictor of how various industries interact with each other. It’s use in social dynamics is hardly new, nor controversial.

Here is what they are saying.

1. Mixed populations create conflict, not diversity. This fact is not only easily observable but measurable, predictable and reliable. It always happens and can be predicted based on demographic date.

2. The amount of violence is dependent on the amount of overlap and the relative population density of one group vs the other. When one group is clearly dominant, this type of conflict is lower. But when it is unclear who is dominant, violence escalates until one group or the other ethnically cleanses the other.

3. Good fences make good neighbors. Violence is minimal if groups stay in their own territory. If they don’t, violence is highest in the no man’s land between the two groups.

This is not only a mathematical measurement of balkanization as the reality vs the irrational fantasy of diversity but makes quite a strong case for white supremacy. Stupidly, even many race realists look down their nose at white supremacy as being somehow……I guess oppressive is the word they are looking for. Such has never, ever been the case however.

Civilization itself was built on white supremacy. Our dominance in the world minimized the type of conflict these people are trying to document and forced most of the world to adhere to ruleset of justice, mercy and the rule of law. White people have been tricked into no longer standing up for that ideal….with predictable (predictable by this specific model, lol) results.

As a practical issue though, if we want to avoid conflicts within our own countries, we MUST embrace white supremacy. If we don’t, eventually some other race will assert dominance over these lands. And they, not us, will set the rules by which everyone lives by. But not after a significant amount of warfare. Neither of these two outcomes is anything less than a horror. And is way outside our self-interest.

That is very much a future issue. For today. As a purely practical matter. What the above very heavily documents is the fact that if you want to live in an area of low violence, you must live in a majority white area that does not share any sort of border with non-whites. Also, stay away from any non-white area, but particularly avoid non-white areas where two or more races overlap. Those are open race war zones.

Such might seem obvious to us. But to the average white person….not so much.

• “White supremacy” is a propaganda word invented by our enemies to discredit us. (Hint: do you think that George Washington called himself a “white supremacist”?) I am not a white supremacist in that I do not think that whites should rule over non-whites. The ultimate resolution with be the establishment of a white homeland so that we can survive and prosper. When work needs to be done, we will hire our own and not import the Third World.

• StillModerated

YT needs to get serious about being fruitful and multiplying. There are a lot of barren wombs out there in careerland.

• bigone4u

And a lot of young males who have sworn off women due to feminism. MGTOW = Men Going Their Own Way.

• Token Finn

That’s why I side with the eeeevil supremacists when having a laugh and watching Hollywood movies from VHS era, since I know who’s the bad guy and the good guy after they’re done filming the scene. I suspect the newer ones are too diverse to handle.

• ” When work needs to be done, we will hire our own and not import the Third World.”

Not with the greed infested cockroaches who now run the Federal Government still in charge.

• JohnEngelman

The “greed infected cockroaches” are in the business community. They increase profits by exporting good jobs and importing cheap labor.

• Raydonn

I believe the term is redundant……..but no, I don’t want dominion over anyone, I just want a whites-only homeland for our people.

• Anon

Except that it has never worked that way. Being “left alone” is not a conceit any culture is ever afforded. Now, taking any non-white who so much as appears anywhere near your border, crucifying him and leaving his half living body to be eaten by vultures as a warning to others. THAT is effective in keeping non-whites out of our lands.

You are right that the term, white supremacy is propaganda. But not in the way you think. Before the term was invented, there was no need for the term because it simply was the way things were. Whites were superior and dominant and you did what we said or we burned your society to the ground.

And I get the whole, not wanting any contact with non-whites because it leads to a possible path for them to contaminate our lands. But what YOU don’t get is the lack of aggression, violence and danger from whites is what actually opens that door.

In other words, what you want is not possible unless whites embrace the truth of both racism and white supremacy and are willing to aggressively defend them. You must have a rock solid reason why non-whites are not allowed in a white homeland. Any who disagree should be terrified of opening their mouths, let alone acting on it.

It’s not enough to have a white country….as we have painfully learned over and over again in recent history. You must have radical separation….no non-whites, no exceptions. They should be shot on sight. Any who try to bring them in are guilty of treason and should be executed on the spot. Any non-whites who so much as think of harming a white country should expect to be exterminate to the last living thing with nukes….their lands sterilized. In other words, way too dangerous to mess with.

These three things are the absolute bare minimum needed for white survival. Anything else is wishful thinking and fantasyland. That meme needs to become dominant among whites. Because our passivity and defining assertiveness and adherence to the rule of law, let alone violence to advance our self-interests, as being somehow “wrong”. That way of thinking is leading to our genocide.

• liberalsuck

“White supremacist” is a derogatory buzzword thrown at white people to punish white people for having normal thoughts on race that we’ve had for years. Why is someone today “sick and hateful” for not approving of gay marriage or race mixing or massive illegal immigration, etc? Lots of white people for years were against these things and many of them, I’m sure, were normal, productive, law-abiding citizens. What do you call Chinese people who want China to be Chinese? “Chinese supremacists”? Why is it worse that Mormons were a predominately white religion, yet the liberals say nothing about the Nation of Islam being a blacks only religion. The liberals call White Christians “insecure and hateful” for professing their faith, and yet they say nothing about the obvious violence, oppression and treatment of women in Muslim countries.

• Svigor

A pill that the patient won’t swallow does him no good. Hence, the shriveled status of “white supremacy.”

• “eventually some other race will assert dominance over these lands. And
they, not us, will set the rules by which everyone lives by”

In the Southwest and beyond that will be a Mexican criminal style government complete with PAN and PRI political parties, not Democrat and Republican, and sooner than you think. You guys ain’t seen nothing yet.

• APaige

I have the APaige Equation:
N(x) =C
Where as N stands for Negros or (well you know)
x is the unknown number of Ns
c is crime
The number of negros equals the amount of crime. Is that called a proof?

• Kathy M

We should be surprised by this? If the loafer fits…

• SargeInCharge

Very few of the gang-bangers wear loafers. Most wear Air Jordan’s that they shot someone for.

• StillModerated

Yeah, but on Saturday night they have also been seen in purple crocodile, pointy toed wingtips.

• John

Hopefully there aren’t any blacks who read the daily mail….

• The dems and libs are so consumed with grabbing the guns of law-abiding Americans…why don’t they start by storming the gangs as they gather to fight and disarm and arrest them for gun possession? We KNOW most are felons….

But, then again, to disarm the groups that are perpetrating violence on society would be racist….as we ALL know they tend to be black…

• The Final Solution

I have a much better and logical solutions – instead of concentrating police resources where gangs are likely to appear, why not concentrate on keeping blacks and browns out of the country in the first place? 99% of all gang members are non-white or some white trash people who think they are non-white. The solution is not to react to their anticipated movements…

• Today, I was watching a trailer for the new Brad Pitt movie, “World War Z,” a zombie movie:

And I was thinking, this is the reason we have so many end of the world, zombie movies these days. To a civilized, God-fearing White Man, it really does seem like the end of the world, and it really does seem like we’re surrounded by armies of soulless animals. I call them animals, but that is an insult to actual animals. I like animals. The animal world is well ordered.
The other day, the new pope spoke of the definition of “latino.” I wonder if some peoples are more human than another. We need to work on our definition of human.

• sam I am

I dont think for a minute that the makers of movies like this, or the AMC hit “the walking dead” have an inkling of what your hinting at. This stuff just sells, and its not related to what your talking about. Scary movies just sell.Having said that, it does evoke a feeling of fear in folks that are cognizant of what could happen, Given the circumstances that we live in, rational people SHOULD be prepared, ALWAYS.
FWIW< I think I will like that movie, even though its always the super connected guy
that gets to save his family from the zombies…

I don’t think for a minute that the tribe that controls the making and distribution of such big budget movies allows one movie to go out these days that doesn’t have one or more embedded cultural Marxist propaganda pieces in it. It seems to me that generally the zombie stuff does sell but is just meant to dehumanize whoever is their target (and they have a hard on for hating white Christians and especially Southern white males). It’s not just about making money or else they would make at least a mild attempts at reporting news and not constantly spinning it and providing false propaganda.

• Well, our message is certainly getting out regardless. Go to the Drudge Report. Oy Vey!

• Well, I suspect it is in their subconscious.- Being overrun by the hordes.
I did have to chuckle when the Brad Pitt character has to go to the genius black man for answers. It reminded me of a movie trailer I saw the other day for “Olympus Burning.” Morgan Freeman is the Sec. of the Interior or something, and I was shocked that he wasn’t President of the US (again.)
Halfway through the trailer, the President and his Cabinet are killed and some men walk up to Morgan Freeman and tell him he’s now the President! HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA I almost peed

• LHathaway

Dang, now we know Exactly where not to live. . .

There was an app for that… but it was deemed “rayciss!!”

• bigone4u

The model assumes that feral murdering gangs must be tolerated. Bull feathers. The feds will expend ungodly resources to infiltrate a nursing home where somebody pins a Confederate flag on the wall (a hate crime), while it would be easy to infiltrate a criminal gang with undercover agents. Somehow, it almost seems like the police tolerate gangs in order to increase their budget year after year.

• Token Finn

I was fined more than a hundred euros for referring to white woman beating non-white thugs as animals that should be put down, though I was simply expressing an emotional reaction. A paper enjoying nationwide circulation then referred to it as an act of “hate” We have what you could call progressive punishment here as far as fines are concerned, and it could have been a lot more if the lying prosecutor had his way in full. People get away with much less when committing various real crimes which endanger or harm human health.

• Michael_C_Scott

I’d have done time before being fined.

• George

This equation is useful in determining conflict zones between gangs.

When rival gangs’ central locations are labelled, one can then determine the areas of overlap where conflict (i.e. shooting members of the rival faction) is most likely to occur. These areas can then be given an additional police presence to catch them in the act, or even beforehand.

To see how the equation works in practise, although not an identical concept, check out Venn Diagrams. The areas of overlap are where gang-related crime is most likely to occur. These areas can then be targetted by the police for additional patrols or stationary units.

• sam I am

the extra police presence would be noted by the inhabitants, and instantly call
the NAACP, SPLC, and assorted “reverends” and be deemed ……….
can I get an R, can I get an A, can I get a C……doh!

• IKantunderstand

Seriously? You have got to be kidding. I absolutely refuse to rise to this easy bait. This article speaks for itself. Now, allow me to stop laughing, with dignity.

• KenelmDigby

Absolutely fascinating.
– The power of a scientific theory, any scientific theory, lies in its predictive value. Basically, if a scientific theory makes predictions that cocur with actual observations to an outstandingly high degree of accuracy, then that theory is ‘truthful’, and the system of equations, abstract math, what have you, is, in fact, a facsimile of an underlying deeper truth.
That said, it is ironic that a system first applied to model wild predators in their natural habitats, can yield such rich dividends when applied to certain sections of society.

• George

With respect, though, the same system can be used to predict other, more commonplace behaviours. It can help a retailer or restaurant chain find suitable locations for new outlets, based on knowing where people live and work. It can help urban planners in countless ways.

This model looks at predation. In the wild, animals need to eat. Knowing where the packs are, as compared to the village, helps identify danger spots…the sorts of places you don’t let your children go if you’re fond of, or at all attached to them.

We are all a product of evolutionary biology. We all have base needs and as we are all animals, humans exhibit animal behaviours. Predation is one of these behaviours, whether it’s blacks & hispanics doing their usual ‘thing’, or middle class women hitting the discount racks at JC Penny’s. This system will be helpful for police to target the areas at greatest risk of minority violence.

• Michael_C_Scott

It would be helpful for the police, except the judges keep ruling that profiling is bad, rather like telling anglers they should fish out of buckets instead of rivers and lakes, or that for inexpensive power tools basement hobbyists should go to Bed, Bath & Beyond instead of Harbor Freight.
.

• PesachPatriot

It seems pretty unfair to compare gang members to animals…my cat and i’m assuming other posters dogs have never robbed a liquor store, assaulted an elderly person for petty cash, sold crack or shot someone over sneakers. It doesn’t cost the country billions of dollars to warehouse and feed dangerous out of control dogs and cats in prison either. Even cold blooded predatory animals like snakes, lizards and alligators don’t cause the same amount of trouble that gangbangers do….

america’s gangbangers are notoriously poor shots….every week in florida you read about some hood shootouts between unlicensed pharmaceutical salesmen in long white t shirts in miami, ft. lauderdale or west palm beach who end up missing each other at point blank range and the stray projectiles end up hitting babies and grandmothers several blocks away….

• Howard W. Campbell

As soon as this proves successful in fighting crime, it will be buried right next to Microsoft’s “avoid ghetto” app.

• Das racist

White people killed 60 million other white people between 1939-1945. Black people probably kill a few thousand each year. Who is the bigger killer ? Who is more heartless ? Who exterminated the native american race ? Who committed war crimes in Baghdad, Abu Ghraib and Guantanomo ? One word “WHITES” !!!

• Michael_C_Scott

You’re forgetting over 500,000 people murdered in Rwanda in the span of three months in 1994. Most of this was done with machetes and spears.

You’re also deliberately ignoring the circumstances of World War Two’s death toll; almost all of that was done in officially declared wars. Pull a 19 year-old kid out of his job at the feed store, give him a few months of training, most of it intended to reduce his individuality, slap a rifle in his hand and tell him, “See that other kid who’s wearing a helmet that doesn’t look like yours and a different uniform? Blast him and eventually you’ll get to go home.” It’s nothing like street crime, and most soldiers don’t want to do it; read “Men Against Fire”, by S.L.A. Marshall.

Marshall was controversial for saying that 75% of soldiers didn’t fire their weapons even in direct combat during World War Two and Korea, but this jibes with experiences during the Civil War.

During the fighting in North Africa between British and Australian soldiers on one side and German and Italian on the other, joint casualty clearing stations were established and there were absolutely none of the excesses that were appallingly routine on the Eastern Front.

It’s funny you should mention Iraq, where US forces committed some war crimes. During the 1980-88 nonwhite Iran-Iraq War, both sides routinely violated International Humanitarian Law; Iraq by using mustard gas and nerve gas, Iran by conscripting young boys and marching them across minefields in order to clear the mines, and both sides by launching indiscriminate attacks against civilians and by illegally keeping enemy POWs numbering in the tens of thousands for over a decade after the war had ended.

Another of the really bad ones was in Cambodia, where the end of the civil war and accession to power of the Khmer Rouge in 1975 was merely a prelude to mass murder; the death toll ran at about 1.75 million, or 25% of the country’s population.

There was also the Mongol conquest of Persia in the 13th Century. Approximately 90-95% of the population was killed (about what a good nuclear war would do today) and the population of Iran did not recover to pre-Mongol levels until the mid-20th century.

My comment about nuclear war brings us full circle back to World War Two. Even white scientific and engineering superiority has its limitations: more people were killed with samurai swords during World War Two than with atom bombs.

• alex

Millions of people were killed during civil wars in Africa. What about mass rapes, cannibalism, hacking off limbs and necklacing?
You can protest extermination of native americans by leaving the USA.

• PesachPatriot

I don’t think the native amerindian tribes of north america were exterminated….oppressed, conquered, displaced certainly….but I can drive 20 minutes and gamble in a seminole casino….the history of the entire planet is written in blood but if america is so awful why does everyone else want to come here? I also think there were some black and hispanic soldiers involved in the abu ghraib and guantanamo scandals as well….its one thing for soldiers to kill other grown men in combat, very different from shooting a 13 month old baby in the face in a country with law and order and civilization

• Disarming black gangs would solve most of the gun violence in America: http://stuffblackpeopledontlike.blogspot.com/2013/01/guns-blacks-and-steel-why-disarming.html