Could Obama’s Struggles with White Voters Cost Him the Election?

Halimah Abdullah, CNN, October 26, 2012

The nation’s first black president could be in danger of becoming a “one-termer” if he can’t convince enough white voters that he deserves another four years in the Oval Office.

For weeks, he’s hovered around 40% of white voter support—a level that Democratic presidential candidates have struggled with in the recent past and one that analysts believe Barack Obama must maintain in order to win. At the same time, he has to encourage minority voters to go to the polls and capture 80% of their support.

“Obama in ‘08 became the first presidential candidate ever to lose whites by double digits and win. And he could lose them by even more this time and still win. But he can’t fall through the floor with them, and the polling shows him . . . right at the water line of 40 percent that he’ll need, maybe just below sometimes just above,” said Ron Brownstein, the National Journal editorial director and CNN senior political analyst.

“The big qualification: he’s running better among working class whites in the upper Midwest battlegrounds of Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio than anywhere else and that is his last line of defense in this very close election,” he said.

With 59% support among whites, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is hitting record numbers among that group. He is approaching a margin of support last seen by Republican Ronald Reagan in his 1984 re-election.

Yet, support for Romney among non-white voters has hovered between 18-20%, according to national Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll data.

During his 2008 presidential campaign, Republican nominee John McCain got roughly 55% of the white vote and 20% of the non-white vote.

“This is a long-term demographic problem,” John Avlon, a CNN contributor, said. “We don’t want to see our politics divided by race going into the future. That is not healthy or sustainable for a nation as large and diverse as we are and this election is shaping up along these fault lines.”

{snip}

The result is a deeply partisan and polarized election that could hinge—in part—on some uncomfortable racial math.

{snip}

Romney’s comments during a May fundraiser that “it would be helpful to be Latino” because were he “born of Mexican parents, I’d have a better shot of winning this,” went over poorly with some Latinos—a voting block the campaign is trying to make inroads with through Spanish language advertisements and dispatching bilingual surrogates.

During recent comments to the Des Moines Register editorial board, Obama said: “I will just be very blunt. Should I win a second term, a big reason I will win a second term is because the Republican nominee and the Republican Party have so alienated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the Latino community.”

{snip}

But Democrats have struggled for the past decade to hold on to white voters during presidential elections, Brownstein said.

In 2004, Sen. John Kerry lost his presidential run after getting only 41% of that group. In the 2000 election, Vice President Al Gore lost with 42% of the white vote, 90% of the black vote and 35% of the Latino vote.

“Democrats have struggled for several decades to maintain any measurable level of support among whites, especially non-college whites,” Brownstein said.

{snip}

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  • Mercerian Jed

    If “too many” Whites vote for Romney and he wins, look for hysterical cries that sound like what we’ve already heard:

    “elections shouldn’t matter so much; some functions of government are too important to not be given to special appointed commissions; we should postpone future elections”

    If Romney is elected, that will be hailed as “proof that America is still a deeply racist and White privileged nation that cries out for more Amnesty for undocumented workers so that we can have a demographic that will vote the right way”.”Whites just can’t be trusted with democracy, because they used their ‘right’ to vote to hurt blacks by voting against Obama.  We must revisit the franchise and limit abuses of the First and Second Amendments.  This election is a step backwards in the wrong direction, and we must do more to make America less White.”

    • Tim_in_Indiana

      If whites don’t wake up soon then I’l have to conclude that they’re getting exactly what they deserve. I’m sorry, but that’s just the way it is.How long can you keep ignoring reality when it keeps smacking you in the face?

  • Read between the lines.  They are referring to Whites as Whites, and talking about what Whites are planning to do as a group.  This is important.

    Andra Gillespie, professor of political science and cultural marxist university, says that Obama should pander specifically to certain Whites – feminists, college students, gays – as has always been the Democratic Party’s strategy.  She just lays it out in terms that anyone can understand.

    Romney is quoted as saying that he would win handily if he had minority privilege.  Five years ago, he would have been pilloried for saying that.

    But here’s the money quote.

    “No Democratic nominee
    has won a majority of whites since 1964. And it’s been especially hard
    for Democrats to hold onto whites after they have had unified control of
    Washington, which suggests they are having trouble convincing whites to
    buy into their vision of activist government.”

    It would have been unprintable five years ago.

    • Major

      Maybe cause Whites now know that the “Democrat” party has the same ring to it that the Peoples Democrat Republic of NK does? 

      And because whites now know that after 50 years of AA and attempting to bring racial “harmony” to the country that it’s done nothing of the sort. And has only created a party of racists, losers and parasites that are openly anti white and aren’t afraid to say so?

      And because they see an AG that’s openly , blatantly racist such as when he makes statements like “My people”? And because whites now see that when blacks get elected to office or an upper hand…they use it to openly discriminate against whites and dare you to challenge their racism? And they use their positions to openly spout racism and loot the treasury at hand…to feather ther nests of any of their relatives…as Rangel, Jordon and Waters have done?

      So much for “diversity and racial harmony” right folks? But the real kick…is when the Potus…claims that a low life little thug and wanna be criminal…”could be the son he never had”…you know we’re gone over the cliff.

      Now we’re being thrown a life raft. To end this criminal enterprise in DC.

  • MerlinV

    Can anyone get a message through for me? I’m trying to get a message through to Hell where Ted Kennedy can be reached. Just wanted to thank him for the 1965 Immigration Reform Act which guaranteed the eventual end of White America. That son of a bootlegger really made his mark on the country.

    • Major

      Well…you know what Europeans cal the Irish anyway, right?

    • anonymous_amren

      Hell doesn’t exist. If we want to punish traitors we need to do it while they are still alive. Some sort of prison term would be ideal. Or some sort of community service like forcing them to stand on the street handing out race realist information.

      • MerlinV

        “Hell doesn’t exist.” You have about as much proof of that statement as I do that it does. You would be wise not to fall into the trap of assuming that anything that cannot be tangibly sensed does not exist.

        I can prove you wrong on that instantly.

  • Thirty-eight percent of Whites voting for Obama? In that case his lease on the White House will be broken, abruptly. Obama got 43 percent in 2008. If Romney gets over 60 percent of Caucasian voters, it will be a GOP landslide.

  • IKantunderstand

    Hey John Avlon, what the hell are you talking about? You work for CNN. We already know what you guys think. (Maybe not you, but, frankly, you’re under suspicion). I got news for you pal, it ain’t exactly all that long term either. Oh, and by the way, Pollyanna, this country IS going  to divide along racial lines. Duh,  did you just get here? Oh, and you are absolutely right about the fact that diversity in the long run, is not healthy or sustainable.

  • 5n4k33y35

    “This is a long-term demographic problem,” John Avlon, a CNN
    contributor, said. “We don’t want to see our politics divided by race
    going into the future.

    I want more division by race. I used to be appalled by the idea of racial hostility, but now I realize that it’s good for whites. Our defeat comes from remaining passive while suffering indignities and a prolonged campaign of hostile psychology and media bias against our best interests.

    Tribalism is good. We need more divisiveness. However this election goes is good for me. Obama wins, many whites are angry and I am pleased. I will harness the anger. If Obama loses, most blacks are angry and I am pleased. I will agitate them some more.

    Also, I will keep antagonizing the non-observant, progressive Jews. I will smack the feminists around as I always do. I’ll keep praising fundamentalist Muslims for keeping women subjugated. And I will continue to praise the Islamic Prophet Mohammed and his marriage to his child bride Aisha. Likewise, I will continue to praise David Koresh.

  • ageofknowledge

    “Could Obama’s Struggles with White Voters Cost Him the Election?”

    Let’s hope so! Like Dinesh said in the film ‘Obama 2016,’ voting Obama in as president is like choosing a coach for the Lakers that thinks he’s helping the Lakers by ensuring they lose every game.

  • IstvanIN

     But did the white politicians did not stand up to the Sotomayor or Kagan appointment nor did they ask for Holders resignation.

    • Michael C. Scott

      No, they decided to be accomplices.

  • StillModerated

     D’souza appeared on some TV talk show touting himself as an expert on the koran. Another guest, Srdja Trifkovic, asked him, “in which order are the surrahs laid out?” D’souza replied that it was not important. Trifkovic told him that it was from the shortest to longest. And the boy from Goa couldn’t even point out that was wrong. They are laid out from longest to shortest.

    Just one reason why Dinesh has little credibility. But the movie is worth watching even if only for the interview with George Obama.

    • Dinesh D’Souza lost me forever when someone first gave me one of his books, The End of Racism.  Once I got to the part when he said that western Africa was qualitatively superior to western Europe in 1500 AD, that was enough.

      It wasn’t until after Sam Francis died that I found out that the arrogant subcontinental was the one who got the Washington Times to fire Sam.

      This is why I’ll never watch this movie.  Then again, I don’t need this movie or anything else to convince me not and never to vote for Barack H. Obama II — All I needed was my natural uniform and to unleash my inner tribe.  No black President, full stop.  Not Obama, not Allen West, not Mr. 9-9-9, not Ezola Foster.  Hit repeat to the tune of about 120 million white voters (hopefully).

  • Guest

    No, she was told “this isn’t about you”, which is what her idiot parents told White advocates who tried to make her parents understand what her death was about. Dear God, there seems to be no hope for us.

    90% of Whites are stupid, lazy, and traitorous. We need a good cataclysm to wake us up.

    I hope Obama wins the election and acts 10 times as arrogant as before, and his lackey Holder too. Hopefully he gets the Bill of Rights outlawed, which has been a Democrat dream for about 50 years. Then maybe the idiot Whites will wake up and see, yes, it is about “us”, moron.

  • Guest

    I live to see whites experience their Bastille day. I want to see vile left wing judges and politicians sent to prisons, where they will experience the same awful horrors that they have forced on whites for years, in the name of diversity and multiculturalism. Hey Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi and the rest: when whites become fully aware of pain and destruction you caused them, your future is in the pit of some prison hell, experiencing unimaginable horrors…that you fully deserve. I live to see the day when we have justice and revenge. 

  • guest

    I wasn’t calling you a moron, but the 90% in general. And if that gets you hot, you should stay away from blacks and the left in general. They will call you a lot worse than that.

  • SintiriNikos

    There will come a time when capturing 100% of the white vote will not win a candidate the election.

  • Net_Drifter

    I can’t believe the amount of crap this lunatic is allowed to get away with. Do you really think a maniacal ex-con is a good image for Amren?

  • eunometic

    The tragedy of the White vote is that Obama seems to do well with White women? What is wrong with them?

    • ImTellinYa

      White single women seem to think that Obonzo, that stuttering, smacking, homosexual, affirmative-action parasite, is actually an articulate, intelligent Alpha male. Single White women are apparently unable to vote according to their best interests. My guess is that they vote out of irrational emotions that have to do with being sanctimonious, but sexy, Earth angels. They are delusional like all supporters of Leftist tyranny.

      Check out the following. It’s a really good analysis of who exactly supports Obonzo vs. Romney:http://www.vdare.com/articles/obama-fringe-vs-romney-core

  • ImTellinYa

    Yes, Democrats have been losing the White vote since 1964. In response, our leftist ruling elites have been importing a new, lively, vibrant, diverse people who overwhelmingly vote Democratic. I know, I know, the GOP claims that our little brown brothers the Hispanics are natural Republicans who, any day now, will abandon the Democratic Party as long as we import millions more Hispanics into our already overpopulated, unemployed country. The GOP is composed of dreaming sheep.

    Hispanics have an illegitimacy rate of well over 50 percent. They are at least four times more likely to commit serious crimes than Whites. They are enthusiastic partakers of welfare and affirmative action. They do very badly in school. In other words, they will turn the U.S. into a third-world hellhole just like the countries they came from.

    Obonzo’s treasonous and criminal administration should be quite easy to vote out of office. But because of the lively, vibrant, diverse invasion of hostile third-world savages, it just might not be possible for the GOP to ever again have a landslide victory… …or any major victories at all. The GOP are such cowards that they might as well just join the Democrats anyway.But I will vote AGAINST Obonzo.

  • Net_Drifter

    I don’t really give a damn which side you’re on. I’m tired of seeing internet tough guys threaten people when they disagree with them,  or when they obviously misunderstood what was being said.

    On the other subject, there have also been many rumors and supposition that both sides of my otherwise very Scot-Irish-English family have “Indian blood” but I don’t go around making an issue out of it.  Because I know that I’m still as white as anybody. The significance of it genetically and otherwise is pretty low in my family. At least to us it is..

    As for who you married, that’s your decision. But, you can’t expect it to be respected or admired by whites who are pissed and who feel surrounded.

  • Sam’s message might have gotten more circulation, but nobody likes a snitch, and nobody likes a non-white telling white people what kind of opinions that white people in white countries should or shouldn’t have.

  • ageofknowledge

    That seems to be the problem on this forum Question Diversity. Dinesh is one of the good guys but they’ve got their heads so far up their race, they can’t grasp this obvious truth.