Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men

Ronald Brownstein, National Journal, July 11, 2012

The new Quinnipiac University and ABC/Washington Post national surveys out this week converge on one key conclusion: as the election nears, President Obama is sinking to historic lows among the group most consistently hostile to him.

Throughout his career on the national stage, Obama has struggled among white men without a college education. But in these latest surveys, he has fallen to a level of support among them lower than any Democratic nominee has attracted in any election since 1980, according to an upcoming National Journal analysis of exit polls from presidential elections.

Though pollsters at each organization caution that the margins of error are substantial when looking at subgroups such as this, each poll shows erosion within that margin of error for Obama with these working-class white men. The new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama attracting just 29 percent of non-college white men, down from 32 percent in their most recent national survey in April, according to figures provided by Douglas Schwartz, April Radocchio and Ralph Hansen of Quinnipiac. The ABC/Washington Post survey found Obama drawing just 28 percent of non-college white men, down from 34 percent in their May survey, according to figures provided by ABC Pollster Gary Langer. Romney drew 56 percent of the non-college white men in Quinnipiac and 65 percent in the ABC/Washington Post survey.

No one expects Obama to win these blue-collar men, who are now among the most reliably Republican segments of the electorate. But even so, these numbers, if sustained through Election Day, would represent a modern nadir for Democrats. Since 1980, the worst performance for any Democratic nominee among these working-class white men was the 31 percent Walter Mondale managed against Ronald Reagan in 1984; the meager 39 percent Obama drew in 2008 was actually the party’s best showing over that period. These new surveys show Obama that these non-college white men represent Obama’s largest source of decline in the white electorate since 2008.

Still, Obama is also facing weak numbers among working-class white women. The Quinnipiac Poll shows him drawing just 37 percent of white women without a college education, and the ABC/Post poll puts him at 40 percent with those women. {snip}

{snip}

By now, the reasons for Obama’s struggles with working-class whites are familiar. Many are culturally-conservative; more are deeply skeptical of government (including his health care plan); and most are struggling in the sustained economic downturn. Polls also consistently show many working-class whites are deeply uneasy about the propulsive racial and ethnic changes that Obama uniquely embodies.

{snip}

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  • ” By now, the reasons for Obama’s struggles with working-class whites are
    familiar. Many are culturally-conservative; more are deeply skeptical of
    government (including his health care plan); and most are struggling in
    the sustained economic downturn. Polls also consistently show many working-class whites are deeply uneasy about the propulsive racial and ethnic changes that Obama uniquely embodies.”

    And also, many of them never attended college, so they haven’t been brainwashed by liberal professors who pepper their lessons with moonbat theology.  Perhaps they lack a sophisticated vocabulary, but blue collar thinking is often less muddled than that of the ivory tower elite.

  • The__Bobster

    They probably pay no federal income tax and have been taught that Democrats are “for the little guy”.

  • JackKrak

    I want to know who these high-school educated whites for Obama are. 29% for men and 37% for women may be surprisingly low to NY media types but it’s amazingly high to me. Apart from anyone who gets a paycheck (or one of a million other kinds of checks) from the government, whigga gangsta wannabes and stoner dropouts, what white person supports Obama who hasn’t continued some kind of education after high school????

  • Larssonenar

    Unfortunately for blue-collar white males, a Romney administration will mean continued competition with Latinos for fewer jobs, as well as a continuation of affirmative action and an increase in federal power and a decrease in individual liberties. There just aren’t any good options for the working white man.

    • Not to mention both the idiot Obama and Romney favor “free trade” (i.e. offshoring), despite what Obama’s slick commercials say.

      • Obama never promised to end outsourcing, his commercials only promised to roll back some piddley tax deductions to companies that outsource.  Not the same thing.  Companies will still outsource because the labor is far cheaper than the extra taxes. Also that doesn’t address the other side of outsourcing, which is insourcing with the H1Bs.

    • JohnEngelman

      It will also mean cuts in Social Security and Medicare.
       
      http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/02/10/Romney-vows-Social-Security-Medicare-cuts/UPI-33431328894690/        

  • libertarian1234

    “Only 28 percent of non-college-educated white men support Obama.”

    It’s hard to believe there are even that many white fools in this country.

    No wonder we’re losing the culture war.

    • JohnEngelman

      The 28 percent have the intelligence and knowledge to know that tax cuts for the rich do not lead to jobs for the unemployed, and that the Republican Party intends to reduce spending on programs that benefit white blue collar workers. These include Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment compensation. 

      • The__Bobster

        Errr, it’s Obongo who is cutting Medicare by $500 billion to fund Obongocare for young minorities and illegal squat monsters.

        • The $500b “Medicare Cut” was an accounting trick among a lot of accounting and other tricks in order to get the ten-year cost of ObamaCare “under” a trillion dollars, for propaganda purposes.  The main reason for that is that Iraq cost that, and “if we can go to war in Iraq we can ruin the American health care system for the sake of permanent Democrat Party hegemony.”

        • JohnEngelman

          House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget plan specifies a long-term spending path under which, by 2050, most of the federal government aside from Social Security, health care, and defense would cease to exist, according to figures in a Congressional Budget Office analysis released today. [1]
                       
          The CBO report [was] prepared at Chairman Ryan’s request…      
                         
          CBO finds that the Ryan plan would cut programs to help low- and middle-income people afford health insurance — Medicaid, CHIP, and the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies to help near-poor and moderate-income families afford insurance — by more than 75 percent by 2050, with the bulk of the cuts coming from Medicaid.  Spending on these programs would be slashed from between 4¼ and 4½ percent of GDP in 2050 under current policies to just 1 percent of GDP…
                             
          The CBO analysis states that the Ryan plan would raise the age at which people become eligible for Medicare from 65 to 67, even as it repeals the health reform law’s coverage provisions.  This means 65- and 66-year-olds would haveneither Medicare nor access to health insurance exchanges in which they could buy coverage at an affordable price and receive subsidies to help them secure coverage if their incomes are low.  This change would put many more 65- and 66-year-olds who don’t have employer coverage into the individual insurance market, where the premiums charged to people in this age group tend to be extremely high — thereby leaving many of them uninsured.  People of limited means would be affected most harshly because they would not be able to afford private coverage.  In addition, many 65- and 66-year-olds with a pre-existing medical condition would not be able to purchase coverage at any price. 
          http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3708 

  • The other 28% are OBVIOUSLY UNION workers.

  • Well, the Obama campaign made a calculated decision to abandon the white male working class in favor of pandering to every possible victim group imaginable. So instead of opposing “free trade” (i.e. offshoring) and mass immigration, they’ve chosen to embrace sodomy, La Raza, the church of Reverand Al, and those horribly oppressed white female brats.

    • No truer words have been assigned to these rats.

  • Hirschibold

    People have misread the 28% who still support Obama. They might be Union men, but I would be willing to bet they are just popular culture zombies. It’s a general free form bit of association that goes on in their ‘brains,’ bolstered and reaffirmed everyday on MTV and ESPN. Black is cool, black is effortless athleticism, as in the NBA player making that wonderful slam dunk; black is the rapper, the only man in America who can get away with chauvinism and glorying in money and material wealth without being lambasted as a misogynist or a 1%er. He is told on a daily basis that black is cool. And Obama is black. Ergo in our world of what Richard Spencer calls “Negro fascism” Obama is cool.

    People are close to brain dead out there in TV land.

    • El_Magyar

      This is a good point. The “uneducated, blue-collar white male” is a strange animal. I don’t think the people on this site understand who this demographic is (at least the remaining 28%). It is not the hard-working “hick” or “redneck”. To put it bluntly, it is the “wigger”.

      There are some white fellas out there as worthless as any Black I have come across.

  • If they roll back that 28% to 23%, and those 5% come to the Republicans, that will swing more states and more undercard elections to the Republicans than would result from getting a majority of the Hispanic vote compared to what they get now.

  • If I was to guess the reason it would at least be partly due to the obama demorats knowing that their plan is well under way, that would be:

    To undermine Traditional White Male America through yanking the loving power of “Father” from us. Stripping us of our life savings, of occupation seniority, destructive divorce laws, media insults, educational attacks on intelligence, creativity and invention.

    The flooding of America with illegal and legal immigrants hostile to White Male authority. The demorats knowing that the sledge hammer of demographic time is now on their side, believe we will just fade into the background of a Balkan America, easily shoved aside and able to vote us out of existence, even without stealing an election ever again.

    And I am afraid they may be close to some finality not friendly to White America.

  • JohnEngelman

    To do all of that Republicans would have to stop being Republicans. The Republican Party exists in order to advance the economic interests of the richest ten percent of the United States. Anything else they talk about is a ploy to win the votes of those who are hurt by their economic policies, as white blue collar workers certainly are. 

  • JohnEngelman

    With college-educated whites, Obama’s situation appears somewhat more stable. The two new surveys show Obama’s support among college educated white men dipping slightly from its level in 2008, when he won 42 percent of them. Quinnipiac puts his showing with these men at 40 percent (essentially unchanged from 39 percent in its April poll) while the ABC/Post survey found him attracting only 37 percent, down from 44 percent in its May survey.
    http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/from-bad-to-worse-with-bluecol.php 

    56% of voters who attended graduate school approve of Obama’s performance.
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/january_2012/education_job_make_a_difference_in_how_voters_rate_obama

  • This tells me one simple thing: 28% of the men in our country, who are White and non-college-educated, are BRAINWASHED.

  • JohnEngelman

    Liberal Democratic support for preferential hiring on the shop floor and in the schoolroom–to make up for past discrimination–has enabled a conservative Republican Party to lay claim to the cause of equal opportunity, once the rallying cry of the civil-rights movement. In the wake of sustained group and individual conflicts over rights, preferences, and government benefits, an egalitarian populism of the right has emerged, one so strong that it was not only accessible to George C. Wallace in 1968 but remained available twenty years later to a scion of the old guard of the Northeast, George Herbert Walker Bush.         
                                               
    Conservative populism has permitted the Republican Party to replace in the minds of many voters the idea of an “establishment” ruled by business interests with a hated new liberal establishment, adversarial to the common man: an elite–of judges, bureaucrats, newspaper editors, ACLU lawyers, academics, Democratic politicians, civil-rights and feminist leaders–determined to enact racially and socially redistributive policies demanding the largest sacrifices from the white working and lower-middle classes.       
                           
    – Thomas Byrne Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, from Race, The Atlantic Monthly, May 1991
    http://www.theatlantic.com/past/politics/race/edsall.htm

  • JohnEngelman

    The Republican domination of the United States may be said to have begun with the election in 1980 of Ronald Reagan. Since then white blue collar workers have benefited from a steady decline in the crime rate. This has happened because of a tripling in the prison population.
                   
    http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm 
                           
    http://www.jacksonprogressive.com/issues/lawenforcement/punishment.pdf 
                            
    Unfortunately, white blue collar workers have not benefited economically. Although real after tax income for the richest 20 percent has increased since 1980, and real after tax income for the richest one percent has increased dramatically, real after tax income for white blue collar workers has declined. 
                  
    http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=389436&pt=msg&mid=10153698  
                   
    If the Republicans sweep the next election this will continue. Republicans are committed to cutting taxes for the rich while also cutting Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment compensation. 

  • SLCain

    “No one expects Obama to win these blue-collar men, who are now among the most reliably Republican segments of the electorate. ”

    And what will those blue-collar white men get out of throwing their alligience to the Republicans?   A big, hearty screw-you-very-much, that’s what.   The Republican party will happily take their vote, and then claim a mandate to enact policies that are hostile to white men, blue-collar white men in particular – outsourcing, insourcing, the hollowing out of american industry, an amnesty for illegal aliens, the promotion of ever higher levels of immigration, and not a word said about affirmative action.

    Get a clue, white men.  Don’t vote Republican.  Sit this one out.  Condemn the Republican party to the electoral death it so richly deserves.

    • The__Bobster

      If Romney picks Reconquista Rubino (as the neocons want him to do), the party’s demise will be greatly hastened.

  • The__Bobster

    Koch, Koch, Koch. Big deal! Soros contributes 50 times as much to his causes. The Koch brothers barely make the top 100 list of campaign contributors.