Shanti Aboobaker, IOL News, January 31, 2012
The number of white South Africans will decrease by eight percent by 2025, according to a report by the SA Institute of Race Relations.
And by 2015, coloured South Africans will be the next largest race group in the country after Africans.
By 2040, there will be 20 percent fewer white South Africans than in 2010.
“The decline in the white and Indian populations is attributed to a combination of low fertility rates and higher emigration rates. the white population group has emigrated on a larger scale than other race groups, although a slowdown is foreseen,” according to the report authored by Thuthukani Ndebele.
“The African and coloured population groups are predicted to increase at a slower rate, largely because of HIV-Aids and declining fertility rates.”
The report was based on findings of a 2008 Actuarial Society of South Africa project, among others.
It found that HIV-Aids had a major effect on the structure of the African component of the South African population.
The marked decrease of the African population in the 35-39 age group is explained by the high prevalence rate of HIV-Aids in this group.
A decrease is also apparent in the white population in the 24-35 age groups, attributed to the high rate of emigration of white people of working age.
The greater numbers of elderly white people was due to better access to private health care, less poverty, and a higher standard of living.
The coloured population, although relatively stable, had a higher mortality rate in the 15-24 age group.