White Democrats Reap What They’ve Sown

Ayanna Pressley, a 44-year-old black woman, easily defeated 10-term white congressman Michael Capuano in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’s seventh district. The first non-white woman on the Boston City Council, she will almost certainly be the first black woman congressman from Massachusetts since she faces no opposition in the general election. Her victory immediately drew comparisons to the that of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over Congressman Joe Crowley in New York’s 14th district. In both cases, a long-established white male incumbent lost to a woman of color, showing that non-whites are becoming the standard bearers of the Democratic Party and that in many districts “old white males” probably have no future. Miss Ocasio-Cortez also faces no opponent in November.

This election cycle there is a clear pattern of non-whites winning Democratic nominations. Stacey Abrams, the nominee in the Georgia gubernatorial election, would be the first black woman governor in American history if she wins. She defeated Stacey Evans, a white lawyer, who had argued for a more moderate approach, including outreach to independents and suburban Republican women. Miss Abrams’s more direct appeal to non-whites prevailed. It is the same strategy Miss Abrams is counting on to win the general election, and it may work thanks to changing demographics. As the Washington Post noted in a story about her, “The rapidly changing complexion of the South, which has seen the percentages of African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans increase, creates the potential for a political makeover.”

Jewish incumbents are not safe. In California, Hispanic Kevin de León won the Democratic Party endorsement over longtime incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein, and will face her in November. Mr. de León, who has said the Trump Administration’s immigration policy is based on “principles of white supremacy,” is campaigning on the promise that he would be a fiercer opponent of the White House than Senator Feinstein, who once said Donald Trump “can be a good president.” Indeed, Mr. de León says half his family could be eligible for deportation because they used phony documents. In his stump speeches, he switches between English and Spanish, and brags that he wrote a “sanctuary state” bill for California. Senator Feinstein is likely to win the general election, but she has clearly lost control of her party.

In part, this is a reflection of how reliant Democrats have become on the non-white vote. Peter Brimelow writes that Democrats have reached the “tipping point” and are now essentially a non-white party. He and Ed Rubenstein claim that a record 45.8 percent of the Democratic presidential vote in 2016 was non-white, and this in a year when low turnout among non-whites contributed to Hillary Clinton’s defeat. He predicts “non-white foot soldiers in the Democratic Party will eventually begin to demand that their leaders look like them, not like Nancy Pelosi.” This is already happening. As Dave Weigel recently reported, non-white Democratic nominees such as Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum and Arizona gubernatorial candidate David Garcia “broke through because of a coalition of their local networks and the help of outside groups intent on changing the white, male hue of the governing class.”

In some cases, non-whites are replacing whites on tribalistic grounds. Ayanna Pressley and Michael Capuano had “similar progressive policies,” NPR’s Asma Khalid reported, so the race was about, well, race. As Miss Pressley said: “Listen, I’m not saying vote for me because I’m a black woman, but I won’t pretend representation doesn’t matter. It matters.” She also said that the majority non-white makeup of her district served as justification for “change.” White incumbent Michael Capuano said that “anybody who wants to govern this district, really has to reach out to people that don’t look like them.” That evidently didn’t help him with the voters.

Yet there is something more than demographic change behind this shift. The rise of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and its explicitly redistributionist program is part of it. For example, in Michigan, Rashida Tlaib will almost certainly be replacing the recently resigned John Conyers in Congress. Like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, she is a DSA member and ran on a platform of Medicare for All, a higher minimum wage, and “a clear pathway to citizenship for all undocumented Americans.”

Identity is certainly part of her appeal; her mother told the Associated Press that her victory is “for the Arabs and Muslims all over the world.” Miss Tlaib herself highlights her Muslim identity as a way of striking back “in the time of Trump.” Yet it was her DSA credentials that gave her real momentum. As the Guardian’s Sarah Betancourt noted, the results of Democratic primaries around the country “suggest a shift towards a bolder, progressive agenda in stark contrast — and a reaction to — the managerialism of Hillary Clinton’s last campaign.”

Race is a vital part of this new progressivism, but it is not necessarily having the effect white advocates might want. Nathaniel Rakich argues in FiveThirtyEight that Ayanna Pressley did not win only the votes of non-whites while Michael Capuano won the whites: “We’ll have to wait for precinct-level results to know for sure, but it looks like Pressley clinched her victory by winning young, college-educated white voters.” (The same was also reportedly true of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s victory.) Not only is socialism on the rise among Democrats, but white Democrats, especially in cities, are beginning to swallow rigid orthodoxy. For example, from 2011 to 2016, the number of white Democrats who think “slavery and discrimination still hold back black people today” rose from 48 to 62 percent. Those who disagree with the view that “other minorities overcame prejudice so black people should do the same without favors” went from 37 to 51 percent. These are dramatic shifts towards delusion.

Thus, it is not entirely true that the Democrats are becoming the “Non-White Party” and the Republicans the “White Party.” The Democrats are a coalition of “woke” anti-racist white progressives and various minority tribes, arrayed against the GOP’s mostly white constituency. The challenge for the Democrats is to keep their coalition together. While the Democratic coalition is bigger, and grows every day that mass immigration continues, it also presents a challenge for the party. Ambitious whites have no future there, not just because minorities are claiming more representation, but because “progressive” ideology means whites go to the back of the line.

In other words, the Democratic Party is a party of non-whites and pathological whites. There are still enough healthy whites left for the GOP to put together winning majorities — if it stops surrendering every time someone calls it racist.