Posted on October 6, 2020

Why President Donald Trump Does Not Have to Win Florida

Chris Roberts, American Renaissance, October 6, 2020

Many political analysts claim that to win the presidency, the Republican Party must win Florida. This comes from very superficial analysis. If George W. Bush had lost Florida in 2000 and 2004, he would have lost those elections. In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama won Florida and the election.

But Florida is essential to Republican victory only if you assume several states in the Midwest and New England are out of reach for the GOP. Donald Trump showed that many working-class whites can be convinced to vote Republican and tip states red. In 2016, although Mr. Trump won Florida, he didn’t need to — he would have won even if he lost it.

The 2016 election with Florida going for Hillary Clinton instead of Donald Trump. Mr. Trump still wins.

The GOP can even lose Florida and the usually-Democrat Pennsylvania and still win the election by winning two small white states it narrowly lost in 2016: Minnesota and New Hampshire.

FL and PA Blue; NH and MN Red

Republican victory

In 2016, the Democrats won New Hampshire by 0.37 percent of the vote and Minnesota by 1.52 percent of the vote — so GOP victories are not far-fetched.

Winning Florida is good, but not essential. Even if the state becomes solidly blue, as its conservative Cubans are displaced by more liberal Haitians, Puerto Ricans, and Dominicans, the GOP will still be able to win presidential elections — so long as it attracts enough whites.