Crime Rate for Illegal Aliens Vastly Understated, Data Shows

In June, illegal alien Victor Martinez-Hernandez was charged with the murder of Rachel Morin, a mother of five in Maryland. Police in Oklahoma tracked the accused repeat offender down with a sample of his DNA recovered from a Los Angeles home invasion in which a 9-year-old girl and her mother were assaulted.

Police say Martinez-Hernandez came to the U.S. illegally to escape prosecution for at least one other murder in his native El Salvador in December 2022.

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Like the member of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua sentenced to life in prison last week for the murder of nursing student Laken Riley in Georgia, Hernandez’s case is shining a light on the federal government’s failure to properly vet and keep track of lawless migrants.

These gaps have led to broad claims that illegal immigrants have less involvement with the criminal justice system than native-born Americans. A review of the available data, however, shows that the criminal records of millions of migrants—the ones President-elect Donald Trump vows to prioritize for deportation—remain unknown due to illegal crossings, lax enforcement, and lax data collection by federal and “sanctuary” jurisdictions.

In addition, an analysis of the available statistics by RealClearInvestigations suggests that the crime rate involving noncitizens is vastly understated. A separate RCI analysis based on estimates developed by the Justice Department’s National Institute of Justice suggests that crime by illegal aliens who entered the U.S. by July 21 cost the country some $166.5 billion.

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{snip} ICE routinely releases many illegal immigrants into the country on their own recognizance and then discovers afterward that many had criminal records in their home countries.

In response to a request from Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, ICE reported this summer that it has released  7.4 million such “nondetained” noncitizens into the U.S. during the past four decades. ICE reports that these include 662,566 noncitizens with criminal histories—435,719 individuals with criminal convictions in their home countries and another 226,847 with pending criminal charges.

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In a July 21 letter to Gonzales, ICE reported that 13,099 of these nondetained individuals have convictions for homicide, with 1,845 facing criminal homicide charges. Another 9,461 have convictions for sex offenses (not including assault or commercialized sex), and 2,659 face pending charges. The convictions include other crimes such as assault (62,231), robbery (10,031), sexual assault (15,811), weapons offenses (13,423), and dangerous drugs (56,533).

These figures only suggest the extent of criminality because they only list the most serious crime committed by each individual. A murderer, for example, who also committed a sex offense is counted only as a murderer.

A listing doesn’t include the fact that millions of migrants are violating the law because of their presence in the U.S. It also doesn’t account for the lawbreaking involved in working without proper authorization or the widespread use of stolen Social Security numbers to secure employment.

The 662,566 convicted and likely criminals make up 9% of the 7.4 million released noncitizens in the last four decades.

The statistics miss much of the relationship between crime and illegal aliens. Noncitizens in the “national docket data” either surrendered to Border Patrol agents or were apprehended at the border. Those who avoid surrender likely have reasons to evade authorities, such as a criminal background.

But there are others who avoided being caught and won’t be in these numbers. That group includes “gotaways”—individuals observed crossing the U.S. border illegally but not apprehended or turned back. With up to 38% of border agents shifted from monitoring to processing duties and 30% of surveillance cameras not functioning, millions more likely entered the U.S. undetected, potentially including the most dangerous individuals.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection, or CPB, estimates that some 2 million such “gotaways” have entered the country since 2021.

The data on migrants who have been processed also understates the problem. Criminals rarely commit just one crime.

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Most violent crimes don’t result in an arrest, so looking at arrests or convictions in other countries will underestimate whether illegal aliens are criminals. Across all U.S. cities in 2022, only 35.2% of violent crimes resulted in an arrest. While 50.6% of murders resulted in an arrest, just 24.1% of rapes produced an arrest, 22.7% of robberies, and 39.9% of aggravated assaults.

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The estimate of over $160 billion in costs from criminal illegal aliens is quite likely an underestimate. It assumes the average criminal coming into the country commits only one offense similar to what he committed in his home country. We also aren’t counting the costs of half of criminal illegal aliens.