Race, Gender Biggest Differentiators in Views of Clinton, Trump

Frank Newport, Gallup, May 27, 2016

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I’m looking here at the favorability ratings of Clinton and Trump among a wide variety of population segments created by various combinations of race and ethnicity, gender, education, religion, region of residence, income and marital status–based on May 1-24 interviews with more than 11,600 Americans. Overall, for this time period, Clinton had an average favorable rating of 40% and Trump, an average favorable rating of 33%, for a +7 Clinton advantage.

The differences in views of Clinton and Trump across segments, as noted, are huge. The single population segment (of those tested) with the biggest difference is non-Hispanic blacks, among whom 69% have a favorable view of Clinton and only 11% have a favorable view of Trump. At the other end of the spectrum, 25% of white men have a favorable view of Clinton and 49% a favorable view of Trump. That’s a 44-percentage-point swing in opinions of Clinton, and a 38-point swing in opinions of Trump. Although it exaggerates the differences, we can say that the swing in the gap in favorable ratings between the two extreme groups is 82 points (+58 Clinton among blacks and +24 Trump among white men).

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Overall, the tendencies in these data are clear. Those most differentially positive toward Clinton (over Trump) are those who identify themselves with any race or ethnic category other than non-Hispanic white, women, those who are not married, LGBT identifiers, any religious group that is not Protestant or Mormon, those who are not religious and those with lower incomes.

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At the risk of overgeneralization, we can say that the typical American who really likes Clinton and doesn’t like Trump is a black, Hispanic or Asian female living outside the bounds of a traditional marriage and who is unreligious. The typical American who really likes Trump and doesn’t like Clinton is a white male who is traditionally married, religious, and a Protestant or Mormon.

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