Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million in 4 Months, C.D.C. Estimates

Denise Grady, New York Times, September 24, 2014

Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling. In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported. The report does not include figures for Guinea because case counts there have gone up and down in ways that cannot be reliably modeled. In the best-case model–which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission–the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said. It showed the proportion of patients now in such settings as about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.

“My gut feeling is, the actions we’re taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass,” Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the C.D.C. director, said in a telephone interview. “But it’s important to understand that it could happen.”

The figures in the C.D.C. report are based on data from August, but Dr. Frieden said the situation appeared to have improved since then because more aid had begun to reach the region.

The current official case count is 5,843, including 2,803 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.


The W.H.O. report also, for the first time, raised the possibility that the disease would not be stopped but would become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could become a constant presence there. The report from the C.D.C. did not discuss that possibility, but it is something that health officials have feared all along, and the reason they say help is needed so quickly.

President Obama’s promise last week to send 3,000 military personnel to Liberia and to build 17 hospitals there, each with 100 beds, were part of the solution, Dr. Frieden said. {snip}


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  • AndrewInterrupted

    One more variation on the race hustle scheme. Send us money!

    • propagandaoftruth

      Pestilence. Hyah!!!!

    • evilsandmich

      Yeah I call bull. If there’s money attached to having the disease 2 billion out of 1 billion Africans will have by noon tomorrow.

    • Alucard_the_last

      That is exactly what is in store. The paw will come out again, and again, and again.

  • And yet, even if this comes to pass, malaria will still be a bigger infector and killer in black Africa.

    • Lewis33

      Whackjobs banning DDT did have one pleasant side effect.

      • Black Swan

        Paging Rachel Carson…

        Believe it or not, Silent Spring is still featured in some in-use textbooks to this day

  • [Guest]

    The U.S. should close the borders and let the Africans fend for themselves.

    • SentryattheGate

      Like a lot of Americans, I’m PO’ed that our military is there—and PO’ed that they’re building hospitals! That’s not the role of the military! Aid workers have been killed, Afreakans have accused whites of causing the disease! Let Africans help each other; after all, I thought they didn’t want to be treated as incompetents!

      • [Guest]

        I agree completely. But as thing are, our opinions count for nothing.

        • Black Swan

          Ditto for our votes.

      • Xerxes22

        That’s just a PR move, mostly for show. Politicians always like to look as if they are doing something useful. The real problems will arise when the Obama administration starts bringing African Ebola patients over here for treatment and they will probably do it in secret too.

        • Periapsis

          His handlers and other psychopathic people among the ruling elite would love to start an Ebola outbreak here, and use it to eliminate millions or tens of millions of US.

      • Black Swan

        The U.S. military is more interested in social engineering and promoting homosexual, black and women’s rights than protecting Americans.

        It is not being used as it should be: To defend the borders of the U.S. from invasion. Instead, it is being used offensively to destabilize the Middle East and “contain” ebola in Africa.

        I resent that my tax money is being used to create more terrorists in the ME and as an incubator for a deadly disease to unleash on US citizens on US soil.

        Not one White should join this organization being used for subversive reasons and run by anti-Whites in Washington DC.

    • Black Swan

      This is a sensible solution.

      Therefore, Western governments will not consider it.

    • Luca

      So true. What with our terrible legacy of exploiting the poor Africans, enslaving them, colonizing them, exploiting their natural resources and changing the earth’s climate, we really should just leave them to their own devices. They are such smart cookies, I am sure that in time they’ll find a cure for all their ills.

  • Easyrhino

    Unless US citizens are in direct contact with bodily fluids of the infected or acquire an appetite for African bush-meat then it won’t spread here.

    • Black Swan

      Those are the lines the state dept. is using to lull Americans into believing that ebola “isn’t that big of a deal,” and “will never happen here.”

      The US government has a long history of lying to the people (Gulf of Tonkin for one of many examples).

      Trust what they say at your own peril.

      I certainly don’t, and with good reason.

  • MekongDelta69

    Ebola is caused by White Privilege… uhh, Racism… uhh, the Classroom to Prison Pipeline… uhh, The Oppression of the African Peoples and the Diaspora… uhh, the Military Industrial Complex… uhh, the CIA… uhh, Global Warming… uhh, Bush… uhh, oh wait – I know – it’s everyone who reads AmRen‘s fault.


    • me

      God is truly great…..

    • Bryce Armstrong

      That’s nicest thing anybody said about
      me all day.

  • captainc

    with free movement of people, check mate humankind! we all stop evolving here and now and becoming dinosaurs.

  • Luca

    Once again, nature is trying to takes its course and diminish the population of Africa. And once again, stupid White liberals are trying to intervene, and in doing so, endanger all of us.

    • Jessica Davis

      Luca up to I looked at the draft 4 $7386, I did not believe that my brothers friend woz really taking home money part-time on their computer.. there dads buddy haz done this less than sixteen months and a short time ago took care of the morgage on their home and purchased a new Buick. go to,.…C&#97&#x73&#104&#83&#116&#111&#x72&#101d&#46&#x43&#111&#77

      • gemjunior

        Oh would you stop it for pete’s sake.

  • benvad

    Mother Nature is having her revenge and naturally culling the Africans. She realizes that they’re getting out of hand.

    Best to block their exits and let nature run its course.

  • Alexandra1973

    Quarantine. Keep it in Africa.

    • Luca

      The entire continent should be quarantined and on lock down. No one in, no one out.

  • Adolf Verloc

    Any gains likely to be obtained by foreign aid are probably going to be wiped out as governments there buckle and collapse under the strain. If we’re going to send troops on humanitarian missions there, we’d better send enough combat units to defend them when things get uglier.

    • Samuel Hathaway

      Let’s bet that if combat units become necessary, the next operation will be to airlift those with Ebola to the United States to keep them from getting caught up in the conflict.

  • anony

    We need to close our southern border now more than ever.

    • Periapsis

      I would go farther, as in close all borders, and start the mass expulsions.

      • anony

        Well yes, but there exists even now huge sentiment in the population for closing our borders particularly the Southern one. How much sentiment there is for expulsion, not sure.

  • anony

    Get Africa out of the U.S. and the U.S. out of Africa.

    • SentryattheGate

      That’s a good variation on the John Birch Society’s “Get the US of the UN and the UN out of the US!” (from 1961)

      • anony

        That surely was my inspiration! Not that I was ever a Bircher.

      • Who Me?

        In 1961 I was a 5 yr old child, but it still sounds good to me. The U.N. is the stuff nightmares are made of.

        • Black Swan

          Agenda 21, anyone?

          For those who still don’t know what it is, here is a primer:

          The global cabal of U.N. Agenda 21 is behind global warming, regionalism, zoning, land and water use control, wealth redistribution, weakening and eventual replacement of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, global warming, cap and trade, Smart Grid, Smart Meters, carbon taxes, high gasoline prices, global citizens, IB World Schools, Common Core nationalized education standards, biofuels, Marxist advancement across the globe, food control, water access control via the Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST), gun control, health control, the Arab Spring/Winter, unchecked illegal immigration, and they are unstoppable.

          They’ve had 100 years of preparation ahead of us. Their effort is bearing fruit on every facet of our lives and around the globe.

          Know that TPTB in the White House are busy furiously, and quietly, implementing every facet of that communist doctrine.

          Agenda 21 for Dummies: http //www youtube com/watch?v=TzEEgtOFFlM

          • SentryattheGate

            Yep, truth is stranger than fiction! Most people think you’re being a conspiracy theorist w/an over-active imagination when you bring up Agenda 21, but all a person has to do is is read their mission statement and documents to realize it’s a real and threatening agenda being carried out by the UN, in the name of climate change (and “social justice” aka communism). Or see a number of Youtube videos; the one you mentioned is a good starting place. The JBS was the only Western journalists that covered the 1992 Rio Earth Summit where Agenda was unveiled. Bush the First signed on to the treaty.

      • Black Swan

        The John Birch society was not wrong and their 1961 sentiment, which was true then, is even more pertinent today.

        • SentryattheGate

          They also warned US, back in the early 60’s, about the federalization/militarization of our police (which has happened). They were so aware and ahead of the game—no wonder they were smeared by enemies of national sovereignty, and they still are going strong!

  • When you factor in conditions on the ground in Africa, Ebola can spread even more widely. I’m talking about the superstitious witch doctor mentality that prevails.

    And when you factor in the “no quarantine” egalitarian mentality that sends white doctors and troops into danger zones, the situation has the potential to explode worldwide.

    Add in mutuations that allow Ebola to spread via air, and you have a worldwide culling of the population the power elites so desperately call for all the time.

    A sane Western response would have been to cancel all flights in and out of affected countries, effectively quarantining them. But “humanitarianism” trumps all, including the lives of all of us.

    • Beloved Comrade

      To the Cultural Marxists in charge, “humanitarianism” means culling evil from the earth – the White population.

      I’m convinced the U.S. government is helping diseased immigrants spread out into the general population quickly and by design to decimate the White population as a part of their War on Whites agenda.

      Whatever the hell else could it possibly be?

      Remember this article from back in July?

      Medical staff warned: Keep your mouths shut about illegal immigrants or face arrest

      The Health Care Worker said children in the camp had measles, scabies, chicken pox and strep throat as well as mental and emotional issues.

      ‘It was not a good atmosphere in terms of health,’ she said. ‘I would be talking to children and lice would just be climbing down their hair.’

      A former nurse at the camp told me she was horrified by what she saw.

      ‘We have so many kids coming in that there was no way to control all of the sickness – all this stuff coming into the country,’ she said. ‘We were very concerned at one point about strep going around the base.’

      Both the counselor and the nurse said their superiors tried to cover up the extent of the illnesses.

      Only a government that truly hated its people would allow aliens to bring in deadly diseases to infect the population.

      • SentryattheGate

        To add to the problem, there are many unvaccinated kids nowadays, because of so many parents now suspicious of vaccines (I am too).

        • Black Swan

          They are suspicious of vaccines for good reasons.

          One good look at what’s in the adjuncts and the fact that most of them now come from China should scare anyone off.

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    It’s picking up speed.

    “As of September 14, the doubling time of the epidemic was 15.7 days in Guinea, 23.6 days in Liberia, and 30.2 days in Sierra Leone. We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 (the end of week 44 of the epidemic) will be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total. The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still.”

    http //www nejm org/doi/full/10 1056/NEJMoa1411100?query=featured_home&&

    Soon, it won’t be only ebola; there will be breakouts of typhoid and dysentery and as the fragile social order breaks down, food riots, violent anarchy and chaos. Bodies will lie in the street unburied.

    IOW, the natural state of African nations.

    Unless Obama starts importing them in by the C-17 load in the name of “humanitarian aid”

    • Samuel Hathaway

      It will be for humanitarian reasons, Obama lies, that those with Ebola have to come to the U.S. No, it will be just another piece of the puzzle of the cultural, racial and political transformation of this country along with the open border and the latinozation of the Southwest and increasingly in the Southeast.

  • tancred guiscard

    Effing a. Had to take my last vacation this week because i got strepp throat from working on a movie set in fort worth over the weekend, another one of those working weekends our kind is famous, or infamous for. I was saving that vacation for a bluegrass festival in Arkansas! Damn you, multicult bastards!

  • IstvanIN

    While Ebola sounds like a terrible way to die let’s be real, 1.4 million is a drop in the bucket in terms of Africa’s population. The real problem is that White people have enabled Africans to breed well past the numbers of people their level of intelligence and type of culture can naturally support. Africans are not capable of supporting large urban populations like we could 2000 years ago. They don’t have the technical expertise to build let alone maintain the infrastructure to support an ever burgeoning population. 100 to 150 years ago there would have been an outbreak in some small, remote tribal village, a few people would die and that would be the end of it. Because of over population and urbanization, which is unnatural to the Africans, these things spread out of control. It is the African who is out of harmony with his environment. Let Al Gore tell them.

  • Paleoconn

    Eight aid workers were murdered. All Whites need to leave the place immediately and be kept in quarantine for two months minimum. Our border should be sealed. The Mediterranean should be mined.

  • bilderbuster

    What does one call 1.4 million ebola cases in Africa in 4 months?
    A good start.

  • Kenner

    I’m not a conspiracy buff, but I wonder if the idea is once our white service personnel start dying, they think Americans will want to push to eradicate the disease.

    • gemjunior

      Even if you were a “conspiracy buff” it’s nothing to be ashamed of anymore. In fact, I personally regard it at least as someone who cares enough to be suspicious of the Utter Scum that are supposed to be our representatives and instead see themselves very much as our overlords. The term is an attempt to shame anyone asking questions and now that the official 9/11 story is seriously doubted by at least half the country and the whole coverup of the Saudi involvement has blown wide open, I think it’s safe to say that everything, I mean everything our gov’t tells us is a giant BS story. But regarding ebola: I really believe our Head POS and his handlers are gleefully rubbing their hands together awaiting the day that ebola runs wild here in our own country. If they cared they would close the borders, man the ports and airports with military and quarantine anyone coming from any part of Africa. How In the world do Americans really think we are going to avoid an outbreak in this country? It’s ridiculous to believe that they aren’t actually opening all doors to it and laying down the welcome mat. Never let a good crisis go to waste, right? It will allow so many more restrictions on our remaining (wha?) freedoms and of course allow the introduction and near permanency of martial law, riots, black on white crime and everything else these sick fux Hilary Obama Eric holder, Rahm Emmanuel and all the other scum love to sit back with some popcorn and enjoy hours of viewing. All I can say is I hope it bites them in the ass, actually chews them off and in the case of Hilary feasts on her ham hock canckles too. I hope they all get Ebola but of course they won’t because they probably already got the vaccine and it was personally paid for by you and me, and our untold hours at work. Don’t get me started.

  • MooTieFighter

    Nothing good comes out of Africa.

  • Alucard_the_last

    The herd must be culled anyway. I have no sympathy. Whites have been keeping the negro alive for decades. Enough is enough, let nature take its course.

  • Stephen Wordsworth

    This will be a disaster in August WHO reported that 10% of the dead had been health care workers. There are over 6000 infected now and that number has been doubling every three weeks those 1700 hospital beds will hardly make a dent. The locals already have all sorts of conspiracy theories about the aid workers and are killing them looting infected supplies sending USA soldiers will only reinforce these conspiratorial and superstitious beliefs.

    Currently the Ebola cases are rising exponentially doubling every 3 weeks as the
    aid workers get overwhelmed this will likely accelerate further and the
    fatality rate will rise from 50% to 90% like Ebola has done previously.

    Currently there are over 6,000 Ebola infections in 3 weeks that will
    be 12,000 in 6 weeks 24,000 a rule of thumb with exponential functions
    is that every 10 doublings multiplies by 1024, so in 30 weeks time we
    could be looking at over 6,000,000 infected in 60 weeks time
    6,000,000,000 hopefully 1st world countries can control the spread
    within their own borders better, currently its spread is being greatly
    helped by superstitious stupidity. Those who survive Ebola infection can
    be reinfected and survivors are often blind incapable of looking after
    themselves this could completely wipe out Africa’s human population
    within a year and other third world areas.

  • MarcB1969

    This is a great time to take the Left’s advice and end Western colonialism in the Dark Continent. Sub-Saharan African’s are a capable people, able to handle their own affairs, so let them figure this one out on their own.

  • John R

    What is the Great White Hope? Ebola! Gee, wouldn’t it be awful if the disease wiped out most of the people of Africa? Yeah, I would just be so upset…NOT!

  • 4321realist

    They’ve lost about half a million people in the last several years in the Ebola area in civil conflicts, and the populations have continued to increase.
    They could lose 20 million people and it wouldn’t put a dent in their population increase in the next twenty years.
    Sending in 3000 US troops by Obama wouldn’t have occurred if the countries affected had been in Eastern Europe.
    He has to watch out for “his people,” over and above all else.

  • B Baker

    Actually we have been helping the black savage since the 1800’s in Africa when Europe went there and brought the savages the wheel and out of the stone age.

  • Teresa Nichols

    Here’s a quote from the article I’ve linked to below”

    “The Population Reference Bureau report shows that women in sub-Saharan Africa currently average 5.2 children during their lifetime, compared to averages of 1.6 in Europe and 1.9 in North America.

    In some African countries, such as Niger, the birth rate is as high as 7.6 children per woman….”


  • dewdly

    Schemes like this are designed to benefit pharmaceutical companies. When it became clear that AZT was killing people in the U.S. – not HIV, – the schemers simply invented an HIV “epidemic” in Africa, and demanded that Western countries pay for the huge store of deadly pharmaceuticals that would otherwise go to “waste”.

  • [Guest]

    The Gateway Pundit website reports this:

    The Liberian Daily Observer, which is the largest newspaper in Liberia, just published an article on their front page with the headline, “Ebola, AIDS Manufactured By Western Pharmaceuticals, US DoD?”

    Yeah, it’s hard to pull one over on those folks. They’re sharp!