Without More Ethnic Minority Votes, Can the Conservatives Ever Win Again?

Tim Wigmore, Telegraph (London), February 26, 2014

The biggest barrier to a Conservative majority in 2015 is simple: 18 million voters would never, ever vote for them. According to a new Ipsos-Mori poll, 40 per cent of voting age Britons would never consider voting Conservative. Only 33 per cent would never consider voting Labour.

The revelation is nothing new, but it does put the Conservative Party’s challenge at the next election into perspective. The party faces the “Romney problem”–it needs a rising proportion of a diminishing share of the electorate to win. That’s because of its complete failure to engage with ethnic minorities: only 16 per cent voted for the party in 2010.

Here’s the statistic that should terrify CCHQ: BME voters are 33 per cent more likely to vote for Labour than white voters–but they are seven points less likely to vote Conservative than white voters. Unless this changes dramatically, it will be a roadblock to the Tories ever winning another election.

As David Skelton and other Conservatives have observed, the party needs to amend its relationship with BME voters, and fast. One MP in a marginal seat recalled his recent trip to a hospital with a large ethnic minority population: “I looked around and thought–no one in this room would vote for us. It was terrifying.”

Few of his colleagues have been alert to the danger that this poses for the Conservative Party’s future. The MP believes David Cameron made a mistake by not giving a big “race speech” early on in the Parliament–but “It’s too late in the electoral cycle now–that will just look like an obvious bid for votes.” Another MP laments the “feeling that if the PM appointed a few black advisers the problem would go away.” But no amount of photos of the PM with Shaun Bailey will solve the Tories’ BME problems–especially with complaints from a friend of Mr Bailey that he was “frozen out” and “the place is dominated by those from Eton.”

Yet, besides the odd piece of cosmetic change, the Conservatives are making little effort to reach out to BME voters. Endless tub-thumping on immigration and the notorious–and utterly ineffectual–“Go Home or Face Arrest” vans risks reinforcing the impression of too many ethnic minorities: that the Tories aren’t particularly comfortable with the changing face of Britain.

The ongoing row over stop-and-search is a snapshot of the Conservatives’ problems. Theresa May, hardly a wet, believes that stop-and-search is ineffectual. Reforming it would have the very handy by-product of providing a totemic olive branch to BME voters. Mr Cameron, weary of giving Ukip the chance to out-flank the party on crime, wants none of it. Labour last week offered their backing for stop-and-search reform. It has received little attention but, by encouraging ethnic minorities to go to the ballot box, it could be decisive in giving David Cameron a P45. To give just one example, in Enoch Powell’s old seat, the arch marginal of Wolverhampton South West, the rising BME vote alone would destroy the Conservative Party’s 691 vote majority. In 2015, there will be 50 Conservative seats where Labour is second and the BME vote is larger than the Conservative majority.

Demographic change means that every year it is getting harder for the Conservatives to ignore their problems with ethnic minorities. Lynton Crosby thinks that his relentless focus on core issues–including immigration–offer the Tories the best chance of remaining in government. But even if Mr Crosby is right, where are the Conservatives planning for the very different Britain they will have to woo in 2020 and beyond?

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  • Frank_DeScushin

    Well, it sounds like Labour’s plan to change the UK’s a voting populace that more readily supports them is having it’s desired effect. It’s sad that only 33% of Brits say they would never vote for the party most responsible for destroying their nation.

  • Spartacus

    Is this the part where diversity is our greatest strength ?

  • Actually I think the bigger “threat” to the Tories was mentioned in this article: UKIP. If it’s credible still 14 months from now, I can easily see UKIP bleeding off enough Tory votes in what are now Tory constituencies to throw the FPTP winner to some other party, depending on the constituency, whatever the second most popular party in that constituency is.

  • Einsatzgrenadier

    The Tories don’t care about whether they will ever be able to win the next election or not. Even if they are never again voted into office, they will always remain in power. The Tories and Labor are really a single party – the party of mass 3rd world immigration, globalism and multiculturalism. As long as Britain is well on the road to becoming an impoverished 3rd world multicultural hellhole, their job is done.

  • dd121

    The answer is no. You need to employ more aggressive measures.

  • DudeWheresMyCountry?

    One MP with a marginal brain recalled a trip to a third-world doctor’s office, or hospital with a large population of worthless parasites: “I looked around the room and thought, none of these cockroaches should even be in The UK.”

  • White countries are magnets for blacks and browns beause liberal politicians promise them goodies. There is nothing that a true conservative can do to overcome their greed and selfishness short of promising them even more goodies. Thus, conservatism, a white social construct is dead or dying.

    • Hal K

      Conservatism is dying because it didn’t try to conserve its white base demographically. In other words, conservatism, as practiced in the mainstream, is an exercise in self-deception for white males.

  • 1stworlder

    They should go and ask leftist polititians if any of them would be willing to say they would rather Lee Rigby(UK soldier beheaded in London) survived and the jihadists did not.

  • Glen

    “Are Tories as stupid as Republicans?”

    Why yes, they are!

    I can no longer stomach the word “conservative” as a self-description. It’s an embarassment with its cultural and Biblical explanations for African and Mestizo failure, “free-market” big business propaganda, knee-jerk support of “right-to-work” laws, unquestioned acceptance of off-shored manufacturing by slave nations, glorification of a wealthy white upper-class that absolutely despises this country’s middle- and working-class White families, studied ignorance of science and anti-science attitudes, bomb bomb bomb the world in support of the globalist interests of the 1%, treatment of unfettered capitalism as an “ideal” instead of a flawed economic system that is heavily dependent upon socialized risk for speculators, knee-jerk defense of feminists and female behavior, automatic condemnation of men’s behavior, etc. Tools of the 1%, these people are! Unfortunately, the only publically acceptable substitute description I can think of is “non-liberal;” therefore, I am non-liberal.

  • Steven Barr

    Tory Party membership in 1950- 3 million
    Tory Party membership today- 134 thousand
    ” Modernisation” really seems to have worked well for them

    • Singh1699

      Thatcher betrayed Sikhs, helped muslims (Indira Gandhi) and brought in boatloads. That probably did it in.

      The EU thing is a scapegoat, I’m not sure if refugees are counted in that 244,000 but I don’t think so.

  • Singh1699

    Lol, it’s actually simple for the UK.

    See blacks are marginal, east Asians a lost cause, Sikhs will vote for them if they explain why Thatcher was visiting hindu ‘saints’ and helping terrorists (Indira Gandhi, who was a converted muslim thay had changed her name to run)

    Her little friend Indira Gandhi had millions forcefully sterilized, millions more killed in encounters, and slept with soviets like no tomorrow.

    Sterilization meaning Ford foundation funds an armed force to surround a village of tribals (who actually have a small population) who proceed to rape everything; the survivors have their wombs ripped out.

    Tl dr and relevant: Muslims specifically Pakistanis are causing the problems in UK. America is to blame for this, specifically Nixon.

    In the war of 1971 which created Bangladesh out of East Pak, he threatened nukes if the Sikh Regiment invaded West Pak as well. 🙁

    Other option is to ban those coming back from cousin marriages (60% Pakis fly back to get them) or cut child care.

    Pakistanis are 6% of the population but, produce 44% of the defective babies.

    • Anna Tree

      “Today,
      70% of all Pakistanis are inbred and in Turkey the amount is between
      25-30% (Jyllands-Posten, 27/2 2009 “More stillbirths among immigrants“).
      A rough estimate reveals that close to half of everybody living in the
      Arab world is inbred. A large percentage of the parents that are blood
      related come from families where intermarriage has been a tradition for
      generations.

      A BBC investigation in Britain several years ago revealed
      that at least 55% of the Pakistani community in Britain was married to a
      first cousin.

      The Times of India affirmed that “this is thought to be linked to the probability that a British Pakistani family is at least 13 times more likely than the general population to have children with recessive genetic disorders.”

      The
      BBC’s research also discovered that while British Pakistanis accounted
      for just 3.4% of all births in Britain, they accounted for 30% of all
      British children with recessive disorders and a higher rate of infant mortality.
      It is not a surprise, therefore, that, in response to this evidence, a
      Labour Party MP has called for a ban on first-cousin marriage. Medical
      evidence shows that one of the negative consequences of inbreeding is a
      100% increase in the risk of stillbirths.

      One study comparing
      Norwegians and Pakistanis shows the risk that the child dies during
      labour increases by 50%. The risk of death due to autosomal recessive
      disorders — e.g., cystic fibrosis and spinal muscular atrophy — is 18
      times higher.
      Risk of death due to malformations is 10 times
      higher. Mental health is also at risk: the probability of depression is
      higher in communities where consanguine marriages are also high. The
      closer the blood relative, the higher the risk of mental and physical
      retardation and schizophrenic illness.

      And then there are the findings on intelligence. Research shows that if one’s parents are cousins, intelligence goes down 10-16 IQ points. The risk of having an IQ lower than 70 (criterion for being “retarded”) increases 400% among children from cousin marriages.

      An
      academic paper published in the Indian National Science Academy found
      that “the onset of various social profiles like visual fixation, social smile, sound seizures, oral expression and hand-grasping are significantly delayed among the new-born inbred babies.”

      Another
      study found that Indian Muslim schoolboys whose parents were first
      cousins tested significantly lower than boys whose parents were unrelated in a non-verbal test on intelligence.

      It is estimated that one third of all handicapped people in Copenhagen have a foreign background and 64% of school children in Denmark with Arabic parents are illiterate after 10 years in the Danish school system.”

      Massive
      inbreeding among Muslims has been going on since their prophet allowed
      first-cousin marriages more than 50 generations (1,400 years) ago. For
      many Muslims, therefore, intermarriage is regarded as being part of
      their religion. In many Muslim communities, it is a source of social status to marry one’s daughter or son to his or her cousin. Intermarriage also ensures that
      wealth
      is kept within the family.Islam’s strict authoritarianism plays a large
      role as well: keeping daughters and sons close gives families more
      power to control and decide their choices and lifestyles.”

      From
      fahrenheit211(dot)net/2013/09/09/from-elsewhere-the-appalling-human-and-financial-cost-of-islamic-incest/

      Statistical research on Arabic countries shows that up to 34 percent of all marriages in Algiers are consanguine (blood related), 46 percent in Bahrain, 33 percent in Egypt, 80 percent in Nubia (southern area in Egypt), 60 percent in Iraq, 64 percent in Jordan, 64 percent in Kuwait, 42 percent in Lebanon, 48 percent in Libya, 47 percent in Mauritania, 54 percent in Qatar, 67 percent in Saudi Arabia, 63 percent in Sudan, 40 percent in Syria, 39 percent in Tunisia, 54 percent
      in the United Arabic Emirates and 45 percent in Yemen (Reproductive Health Journal, 2009 Consanguinity and reproductive health among Arabs.).

      A
      large part of inbred Muslims are born from parents who are themselves
      inbred – which increase the risks of negative mental and physical
      consequences greatly.

      Marriage between cousins is an example how
      morals/norms of a society can impact that society, even endangering it
      (from IEET’s article by Hank
      Pellissier):
      “Statistics on the danger of ingrown genetics were publicized in 2005
      when
      a BBC report claimed Pakistani-Britons produce 33% of the nation’s
      children with genetic illnesses, even though they account for only 3% of
      the births. (55% of Pakistani-Britons marry first cousins.) 10% of
      these newborns either die in infancy, or endure a serious disability. Pakistani-Britons who are first cousins are, claimed the report, 13X more likely to have children with recessive disorders than the general population.

      This dire prognosis is duplicated in the US state of Ohio, in Geauga County, where the Amish population represents 12% of the citizenry. After inter-breeding for 300 years, Amish total 50% of the county’s special needs cases. Additionally, there’s a debilitating seizure disorder that’s so rare only twelve individuals worldwide are afflicted with it; the infirmity is exclusively Amish.”

      Another example is a generation postponing marriages and therefore a generation of children being
      born to older parents. Human Genetics Commission: “the effect of increased maternal age on the rate of Down Syndrome…
      can be compared with the increased risk of consanguinity. At 35 years
      of age the risk of Down Syndrome is four times that at age 25 and it
      increases 15 times by the age of 40… [Both] cousin marriage and
      increased maternal age… represent complex cultural trends…”

  • WR_the_realist

    The Republican Party has committed suicide with its immigration policies, and so have the Tories. I’d rejoice except that I know which parties have survived.

  • Garrett Brown

    The UK’s conservative party died a bit earlier than ours because their country changed quicker demographically. Simple as that.

    • frederickdixon

      “changed quicker demographically”. Only in the sense that sixty years ago the US already had, and had always had, a sizable ethnic minority in its Negro population, while Britain was almost entirely white – and overwhelmingly white British – and has therefore been playing catch up. But at 86% white, and 80% white British, Britain still has some way to go to catch up with the US at 64% white. This, of course, is no cause to be smug – 25% of under fives are non-white.

      • Garrett Brown

        Doesn’t really matter how you got there. You took our immigration policy and put it on steroids. Therefore you will decline much quicker than the US.

        • Singh1699

          The initial problem was actually the rules of the Commonwealth. Members could freely travel visa free and only countries who did it a lot had to get them, eventually. India, Pakistan, Jamaica if I recall.
          Thatcher was an idiot though, she bought in Pakistanis while limiting Sikhs.
          You maybe against immigration, but pick one of those two. I’d rather have Sikhs, hell the queen has Sikh bodyguards instead of gurkhas.

  • Truth Teller

    I too despise the conservatives. They ramble on about the free market which has never worked, silly causes like abortion, gays, guns and vulgar pornographic culture, and other issues which will never, never help Whites.
    Latest conservative cause is not raising minimum wage. But they will never, never go after legal immigration. If immigration ended and the immigrants sent home, the conservatives beloved free market would actually be free and wages and employment would rise.
    They attempt a useless defense of Christmas but ignore the people who constantly file the lawsuits against public displays of nativity scenes and extort stores to use the word holiday instead of Christmas. While bemoaning the war against Christmas they are extreme Zionist supporters and while calling themselves Christians spend all their time obsessing with the Old Testament..
    The worst is their nauseating patriotism war mongering and love of that woman and minority make work welfare department the military.
    Conservatives are a carefully controlled opposition. The liberals create issues like gay marriage so Whites will be distracted from our real problems affirmative action, black on White crime and our coming genocide.

    • saxonsun

      How is it “silly” for a woman to have the inherent right to her body and what happens to it?…! How is it “silly” for a gay HUMAN BEING to have the inherent right to be happy in the only way he/she can?…! This is one reason we whites are losing. Drop your opposition to gays and women. It’s just too pathetic. And terribly silly.

  • Truth Teller

    in my list of things I detest about conservatives is their support of school vouchers. It is just another version of busing. Sending blacks to White schools while turning away White children who live in the district.

  • As I once read somewhere: “Conservatives are just yesterday’s liberals today”. They have been nothing but a failure at ‘conserving’ anything for 70 years and now they have reaped the results of their weakness and compliance to the agenda being pushed on us all.

    Are the Conservatives here as stupid as the equivalent American party? Yes. Not only are they as stupid as each other, as feckless as each other, as string pulled as each other – but they both see the survival of “the party” they represent as being more important than the nation they are a party for.

    They only care for themselves and their survival as a party. The Conservatives will head the route of being “black friendly” – and already are doing, where I have seen videos of one of their members giving a speech partly in Urdu whilst in Oldham, where David Cameron is at a venue wooing the Muslim votes and saying we need to ‘learn’ from the Muslim culture…. and on and on it goes.

    The same will ultimately happen to UKIP I’m afraid. They are not grounded on race awareness, race issues, or are all that different on many other areas of life. They will be ‘courting’ all the minority groups at some stage, be it gays, blacks, Muslims, or whoever – as the expectation and need will be put on them to do so. How will they argue against it? They cannot.

  • scutum

    Like most of our Republicans the Tories are simply Marxist lite.

  • Screamin_Ruffed_Grouse

    While the plight of the GOP/Dems in the states can be debated (and is, ad nauseum), did you read the article? Is your advice for the Tories the same?