Detroit Again Tops List of Most Dangerous Cities, as Crime Rate Dips

Daniel Fisher, Forbes, October 22, 2013

It should be no surprise Detroit tops the Forbes list of the Most Dangerous Cities this year for the fifth year in a row. What is encouraging is the violent crime rate in the Motor City actually declined last year, despite crushing financial woes that drove Detroit into the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Make no mistake: Detroit is still a very dangerous place. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s crime database reports Detroit had 386 murders last year, up from 344 in 2011 and essentially unchanged from 2000–when the city had 200,000 more residents. The steady outflow of residents has driven Detroit’s murder rate up to 54.6 per 100,000, more than 10 times the national average and the highest in the country among large cities. Equally troubled Stockton, Calif., fifth on this year’s Most Dangerous list, has less than half the murder rate of Detroit.

To compile the list, we start with the FBI’s Crime Statistics database, screening for cities with populations above 200,000. That eliminates cities like Flint, Mich., with its record-busting murder rate of 63 per 100,000, but allows us to focus on major American cities that presumably have full-fledged police departments.

{snip}

Detroit’s problems are typical of many of the cities on this year’s list. While national crime statistics have fallen dramatically since the early 1990s–murder and violent crime rates are both down more than 50%–the rates in cities like Detroit; Oakland, Calif.; and St. Louis remain stubbornly high.

“It’s a story about segregation, integration and gentrification,” said John Roman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and lecturer in criminology at the University of Pennsylvania.

Cities that have seen large influxes of immigrants, like New York and Los Angeles, have also enjoyed declining crime rates as those immigrants first stabilize the neighborhoods they move into, then draw in opportunistic new residents who invest in housing and gentrify the area, Roman said. Even in Washington, D.C., once considered a murder capital, killings have fallen by more than two-thirds since the year 2000 as the city’s immigrant population rose.

More effective policing helped, Roman said. {snip}

{snip}

Crime, Roman said, is about “dense clusters of low-skilled young men.”

{snip}

The No. 2 city on this year’s list is going the opposite direction from Detroit. Oakland’s violent crime rate rose 16% to 1,993 per 100,000 residents, more than triple the national average. The city across the bay from San Francisco had a much lower murder rate than Detroit’s however, at 32 per 100,000, putting it below murder hotspots like Detroit, New Orleans at 53, and Newark, N.J. at 34.

More effective policing and more foreign immigrants appear to help drive down crime rates, Roman said. It’s still not clear that more aggressive policing, like Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s stop-and-frisk policy, work over the long term. Get-tough drug laws incarcerated generations of black males and probably aggravated the breakdown in African-American families, he said.

{snip}

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  • “It’s a story about segregation, integration and gentrification,” said John Roman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and lecturer in criminology at the University of Pennsylvania.

    What, we’re relying on Temptations songs (“Ball of Confusion”) for our political logic? Speaking of Motown.

    Cities that have seen large influxes of immigrants, like New York and Los Angeles, have also enjoyed declining crime rates as those immigrants first stabilize the neighborhoods they move into, then draw in opportunistic new residents who invest in housing and gentrify the area, Roman said. Even in Washington, D.C., once considered a murder capital, killings have fallen by more than two-thirds since the year 2000 as the city’s immigrant population rose.

    New York, Los Angeles and D.C. have enjoyed declining crime rates because of SQF in the case of the first, Hispanics bing-banging blacks out in the case of the second, and a deliberate policy of moving blacks out of the city limits in the case of the third.

    More effective policing helped, Roman said. Washington police stopped arresting people for drinking beer on their front stoops (considered normal in many Latin cultures) and created community outreach and Latino liason organizations to avoid antagonizing the city’s new residents.

    Yeah, that’s how we’re going to win the future, with Hispanics getting liquored up on their front porches. BTW I thought that was a black thing.

    Every year this list generates angry comments from readers who say the FBI statistics are unreliable and biased against northern cities, which tend to have tighter borders and sharper economic contrasts between the urban core and suburbs. That’s a valid complaint, but expanding the analysis to metropolitan statistical areas only muddies the data since crime rates tend to be radically higher in dense urban neighborhoods.

    St. Louis finished in third place this year, so I’m expecting our mayor to trot out that excuse, which he does every year St. Louis finishes either first or highly, (which is every year). But if he gets his way and St. Louis City’s and St. Louis County’s crime statistics reporting are merged, for the express purpose of keeping “St. Louis” from finishing high in these surveys, everything will be a-ok, right?

    • joesolargenius

      Well he did say one thing that made sense without actually realizing it and then you hit the nail on the head when you said that the immigrants were bing banging the blacks. However crime may not have gone down because the immigrants often refuse to call the police over assaults because of the loss of income to the affected families, If they’re in jail they ain’t making any money. Plus take a look at Phoenix Arizona after eight years of Janet Napolitano that city had a high immigrant population and was ranked in second place for the number of kidnappings per population, beaten out for first place honors by Mexico City.

      • If Hispanics supplant blacks, the crime rate will go down. If Hispanics supplant whites, the crime rate will go up.

        Until recently, Phoenix never had that many blacks.

        • Jefferson

          I heard there is a Black neighborhood in the southern part of Phoenix, is this true ?

          • It’s been awhile since I’ve been there, and the last time I was there was before the influx of blacks from Los Angeles happened, but historically, Phoenix’s patch of ghetto is south of downtown and north of South Mountain Park.

            They have plenty of Hispanics, though.

          • Jefferson

            ….

          • joesolargenius

            I spent two days in Phoenix back in 2009 and I saw plenty of Blacks in that city

          • Jefferson

            Phoenix has a population of over 1 million people, so I am not surprised you saw a lot of Blacks there.

            Blacks flock to the big cities because most of the government jobs are there.

  • Spartacus

    “The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s crime database reports Detroit had 386 murders last year…”

    ———————————————————————————————————————

    Detroit has about 700.000 inhabitants. The city where I live in has almost 2.000.000 oficially, and maybe more than 2.500.000 unofficially . We had 42 murders in 2011 …

    • Jefferson

      A predominantly White city that has 7 million people would still have less homicides in raw numbers than a predominantly Black city that has 7 hundred thousand people.

      • 549106

        Hahaha, ever heard of Moscow?

        • Spartacus

          I have. It’s still lower than Detroit, and if you count out the murders commited by the large non-White population(between 20%-35%), it’s pretty low .

          • Jefferson

            Who are the Nonwhites committing murders in Moscow ? Muslims and Gypsies ?

            It can’t be Blacks because there are way too few of them in Moscow to Detroitify the city.

          • Spartacus

            Mongrels from the Caucasus and central Asia . I don’t think gypsies are very numerous in Moscow, but not entirely sure .

          • Jefferson

            And Muslims from Chechnya and Bosnia. I doubt very much that they act like model minority citizens in Moscow.

  • MekongDelta69

    If the murder rate in DIE-Troit went down last year (which I highly doubt) – but IF it did – then that’s only because there were more black bangers who were shot and killed, thus leaving slightly fewer black bangers to shoot and kill someone else.

    • ThatguyinTN

      Na, they are just getting better at hiding the bodies their missing persons numbers are probably way up.

      • Spartacus

        Or maybe more of them started going outside city limits to commit crime .

        • ThatguyinTN

          Well with the bankruptcy they will probably decide Detroit is diverse enough and start trying to force them out into other cities (read white cities) that lack the ‘necessary’ cultural enrichment. It will be a two birds one stone kind of deal, Detroits crime rate goes down and they save money by not having to foot the bill for the worthless NAPAs. Of course that will be at the detriment of whites but that’s ok.

  • bigone4u

    Crime, Roman said, is about “dense clusters of low-skilled young men.”
    __________________________________
    Roman left out a word: black. Crime is about dense clusters of low-skilled young black men. Actually, they don’t have to even be that densely clustered. Two blacks or even one in a neighborhood can make for a crime wave.

    • MBlanc46

      itdoesnotmatter reminded me earlier in this thread that you should and the word “Hispanic” as well.

  • Jefferson

    Detroit and homicides go together like white on rice.

    • Brian

      …like brown and downtown. Like black and Cadillac.

  • MBlanc46

    I’m not ready to give up on Detroit (not that I’m in much of a position to do anything about it). We built it. It’s ours. We should take it back. Restore what can be restored and rebuild what needs to be rebuilt.

    • itdoesnotmatter

      MBlanc, though in agreement that Detroit was built by Whites and rightfully belongs to us, I am amazed that you still cling to hope that this benighted city will recover and rebuild. Are poor blacks moving out, taking their weapons grade destructive ways with them?
      It seems logical that as long as the impoverished black population is intact, you will have Soweto conditions in Michigan.

      • MBlanc46

        There has been outmigration in Chicago, which is why our population dropped in the 2010 census. I see no reason why a similar phenomenon can’t or won’t occur in Detroit. More important, at least in the short term, is white control. That needs to be the goal (implicitly, I imagine, rather than explicitly) of the reorganization.

  • MBlanc46

    “Detroit’s problems are typical of many of the cities on this year’s list.”

    Do any of them not have large numbers of blacks?

    • itdoesnotmatter

      Surprise, surprise. Meet the vibrancy mestizo infestation brings.
      Note the relatively small population of blacks. Mestizos run them out.

      • MBlanc46

        Sorry. I should have said, “Do any of them not have large numbers of blacks or Hispanics?”

  • John R

    In Philadelphia, near where I live, a reporter interviewed a police chief, and inquired why crime rates apparently went down, despite the bad economy. The man interviewed was as tactful as he could be, but stated “well crime really doesn’t have that much to do with the economy; IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE A CRIMINAL, YOU WILL BE A CRIMINAL, REGARDLESS OF THE ECONOMY.” (emphasis mine.) That about sums it up, politely. And we know here already the kind of people who are most likely to be criminals. I don’t need to elaborate on that here, do I?

  • Zaporizhian Sich

    As long as it’s darkies killing darkies, I think whites should stand back and let evolution and their predatory natures cull the herd. the more they kill each other, the better for us.

    • Except…if that had a chance of happening, it would have happened by now.

      Women of reproductive age are the population replacement bottleneck of any population. Violence is almost entirely a man and boy thing, both perpetrator and victim.

      If there are 10 people on Earth, nine women and one man, and everyone is able to reproduce, you can have nine new babies every nine months. (Disregard twins/multiples here). If those 10 people are nine men and one woman, you can only have one new baby every nine months. The greater the percentage of your population that is fertile women of reproductive age, the higher your population growth can be.

      If the 10 people are five women and five men, and one of the five men murders another one of them over a diss or shoes or nuances of a Kool-Aid recipe, it does not affect the ability of the remaining five women to reproduce.

      Even in Bell Curve City, there is not an epidemic of women of reproductive age getting murdered.

      • Reverend Bacon

        Yes. “On a cold and gray Chicago morn, another baby child is born in the ghetto…”

        Everytime we read about these animals dying, we find that even the 18-year olds leave behind one or more kids. If birth control were a condition precedent to welfare, we would be much better off.

        • Birth control? Not even random drug tests are allowed to be a precondition for welfare.

          My first major bout of depression was after my return from Japan in 1994. The streets were clean there, there was no litter anywhere, no blacks, I could walk anywhere at any time of night, and they had vending machines that sold beer. Beer vending machines! How cool is that?

          When I returned home from Sydney, Australia in 1998, I was also very depressed, but completely furious in addition. I got beat up quite thoroughly in Randwick only once, but two months later I got one of the guys who did it, ramming his face against the edge of a dumpster until his smart mouth was a bloody red hole. I still have his Swiss wristwatch.

          Even if I were still single and childless, I would stay home, just to avoid them.

          • Reverend Bacon

            Why does an Abo need a watch? I mean, what’s he got to be late for?

          • He was white. I don’t think Aborigines commit much violent crime. The two I knew were sweet people.

    • WR_the_realist

      Except that it’s the most ruthless predators in our urban jungles who survive to spread their genes. So the course that evolution takes might not be what you hope it will be.

  • me

    You can take the Bantu out of the jungle, but you can’t take the jungle out of the Bantu.

    • Think about how depraved the customer demographic is when a business that does not sell or serve liquor needs bouncers.

  • Reverend Bacon

    “Detroit’s murder rate is 10 times the national average.” Funny, it’s black rate is almost 10 times the national average.

    • Jefferson

      If Detroit was it’s own country, it would be as Black as South Africa.

  • Brian

    Crime, Roman said, is about “dense clusters of low-skilled young men.”

    That is a new euphemism. I think I’ll use that one. ‘Action News at 7 reports a home invasion and murder on 112 Elm St. The suspects are described by police as two ‘dense clusters of low-skilled young men’, about 5′ 11″, wearing bright clothing three sizes two big and sideways baseball caps.

  • knuckledragger

    What will my tax dollars pay for if they kill each other off? …oh yeah, we’ve still got israel to stakehorse…

  • WR_the_realist

    “Crime,” Roman said, is about “dense clusters of low-skilled young men.”

    Well, that’s about as close as any mainstream commentator will get to saying that crime is about dense clusters of young black men.