Projecting the 2012 Hispanic Vote

Steven Camarota and Karen Zeigler, Center for Immigration Studies, August 2012

Using Census Bureau data, this report projects the share of Hispanic voters nationally and in battleground states for the upcoming 2012 election. Based on past trends, including growth in the adult Hispanic citizen population, we project that the Hispanic share of the nation’s electorate will increase by 1.5 percentage points, from 7.4 percent in 2008 to 8.9 percent in the 2012 election. Also, we find that Hispanics will be a somewhat smaller share of voters in battleground states than of the overall electorate. However, there is significant variation in the Hispanic share across battleground states.

National Share of the Vote

  • We project that in November 2012 Hispanics will comprise 17.2 percent of the total U.S. population, 15 percent of adults, 11.2 percent of adult citizens, and 8.9 percent of actual voters.
  • In 2012, non-Hispanic whites are expected to be 73.4 percent of the national vote and non-Hispanic blacks are expected to be 12.2 percent.
  • To place the Hispanic share of the electorate into perspective, eight percentage points of the Hispanic vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Hispanic white vote.
  • The 8.9 percent Hispanic share of voters compares to veterans (12 percent of the electorate), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18 percent), seniors 65 and older (19 percent), married persons (60 percent), and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80 percent).
  • In terms of voter turnout, we project that 52.7 percent (± 0.6) of eligible Hispanics will vote in the upcoming election, an increase from 49.9 percent in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade’s long upward trend.
  • The projected Hispanic voter participation rate of 52.7 percent compares to 66.1 percent for non-Hispanic whites and 65.2 percent for non-Hispanic blacks in 2008.

Share in Battleground States

  • In the seven states listed by The Cook Political Report in July as “toss-ups”, we project that Hispanics will average 8.0 percent of voters in 2012, compared to 8.9 percent nationally. The seven toss-up states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.1
  • In the four states listed by Cook as “leaning” toward one party or the other, the Hispanic vote will average 2.8 percent of the electorate in November. The four leaning states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
  • In the seven states Cook identifies as “likely” for one party or the other, Hispanics will average 9.8 percent of the vote. Excluding New Mexico, they will average 4.4 percent of voters in the remaining six “likely” states. The likely states are Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Maine, Minnesota, and New Mexico.
  • Taken together Hispanics will average 7.6 percent of the electorate in the “toss-up”, “leaning”, and “likely” states. If we combine the populations of these states and calculate the Hispanic share of the electorate, Hispanics are projected to be 6.6 percent of the vote.
  • The Hispanic share of voters varies significantly in the 18 battleground states. In 12 of the 18 states, Hispanics are projected to be less than 4 percent of the electorate (Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, and Maine). But in four of the states (New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona), Hispanics will be more than 16 percent of the vote.
  • Non-Hispanic whites are projected to be slightly overrepresented (79.4 percent) in battleground states relative to their share of the national electorate. Like Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks (9.4 percent) tend to be slightly underrepresented in battleground states.

[Editor’s Note: The full memorandum is available here.]

Topics: ,

Share This

We welcome comments that add information or perspective, and we encourage polite debate. If you log in with a social media account, your comment should appear immediately. If you prefer to remain anonymous, you may comment as a guest, using a name and an e-mail address of convenience. Your comment will be moderated.
  • Translation : Republicans what in God’s name are you doing hispanering to these people?

  • Puggg

    Hispanics are almost statistical non-entities.  Blacks vote almost 100% for Democrats but that’s hidden behind the fact that a majority of black voters live in red states that are red because their white voters vote heavily Republican (mainly reacting to their black neighbors).  There are so few Jewish voters that the only two swing states they could possibly affect are Florida and Nevada, and even those are stretches.  I don’t much know about Asians.

    White non-Jewish voters still decide elections in America.

    • The__Bobster

      Asians have discovered racial identity politics. Thus, about 70% of them will vote Democrat.

      Hindus are even worse.

  • KenelmDigby

    It might ‘only’ be 8.9 %, but in many a national election that margin is greater than the difference between success or failure.

    • The__Bobster

      All the more reason not to pander to them by promising Amnesty. Do we really want more of them voting?

  • Bobby

    I have pointed out this low hispanic voting record for years. That is exactly the reason I always argue that the massive illegal immigration, into California and a few other states, had nothing to do with hispanic/Mexican political power, but rather was a clear indication of just how many apathetic, and corrupt European-Americans there are. WE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR NOT STOPPING ANY OF IT. PERIOD!! Those Americans who claim to care,  should have been replacing traitors on this issue, like Lindsay Graham, John Cornyn, Jeff Flake, Harry Reid, Mike Bloomberg, Most of the politicians in Sacramento, California, and on and on, a long time ago. 

    • Caucasians have a weakness in that we tend to get upset over and vote on emotional issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (to say nothing of our endless Middle East oohing and aahing), ignoring much more vital issues such immigration control, ending H1-B visas, and employing revenue tariffs to restore our manufacturing base. That’s why we frequently get our clocks cleaned by Asian countries, whose Asian populace (quite correctly) focuses on things such as LCD TV manufacturing market share than issues that don’t put any money in the bank.  It’s not that we don’t mean well–we’re highly patriotic–it’s just that not enough of us have educated ourselves enough to be able to apply that patriotism to productive ends.

    • bluffcreek1967

      Sad, but very true. Americans, and especially those of us from the southern border states, should have been protesting endlessly decades ago! Collectively, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

  • bluffcreek1967

    That’s a very good point that most Americans never bother to consider!

  • Its funny how they pump up a lie, yes i believe in the future could the numbers be larger sure, but this it was they leave out where are the “hispanics” going. I live in Texas and yes I speak spanish the thing is Mexicans wont go to state that cut stuff off for them. Texas has done that now they flee to California. One day there share will be higher but it will be in states that pander to them, so the west cost which is already a liberal cesspool will not change much, it will be worse off then before but at least the good states will be better off. Adios California, Illinois and New York