In a Down Economy, Fewer Births

Gretchen Livingston, Pew Research Center, October 12, 2011

A sharp decline in fertility rates in the United States that started in 2008 is closely linked to the souring of the economy that began about the same time, according to a new analysis of multiple economic and demographic data sources by the Pew Research Center.

The year 2007 marked a record high number of births in the U.S.–4,316,233. Since that time, births have been declining, even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Preliminary data for 2009 indicate that the number of births dropped to 4,131,018–the lowest number since 2004. Provisional data show that in 2010 births numbered just over 4 million (4,007,000).

A state-level look at fertility illustrates the strength of the correlation between lower birth rates and economic distress. States experiencing the largest economic declines in 2007 and 2008 were most likely to experience relatively large fertility declines from 2008 to 2009, the analysis finds. {snip}

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Since 2007, the U.S. fertility rate–which controls for variations in the size of the female population of childbearing age–has dropped markedly from 69.6 births per thousand women ages 15-44 to 66.7 births per thousand women ages 15-44 in 2009. Provisional data for 2010 indicate a further drop to 64.7 births per thousand women ages 15-44.

The Pew Research Center analysis also finds evidence of an association between economic hard times and fertility declines by race and ethnicity. Hispanics, whose employment levels and household wealth were particularly hard hit by the Great Recession, have experienced the largest fertility declines of the nation’s three major racial and ethnic groups. Conversely, whites have experienced smaller economic hardships, and smaller declines in fertility. From 2008 to 2009, birth rates dropped by 5.9% among Hispanic women, while birth rates dropped 2.4% among black women and 1.6% among white women.

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Hispanics Hardest Hit by Recession, Show Biggest Fertility Declines

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From 2008 to 2009, the birth rate among Hispanics dropped almost 6%. In comparison, blacks experienced a 2.4% decline, and whites experienced a 1.6% decline. While Hispanics continue to have birth rates that are much higher than their non-Hispanic counterparts, the 2009 Hispanic birth rate of 93.3 births per 1000 women of childbearing age is the lowest rate since 1999.

The relatively large birth rate declines among Hispanics mirror their relatively large economic declines, in terms of jobs and wealth. From 2007 to 2008, the employment rate among Hispanics declined by 1.6 percentage points, compared with declines of 1.0 percentage points for blacks and 0.7 points for whites. The unemployment rate shows a similar pattern–unemployment among Hispanics increased 2.0 percentage points from 2007 to 2008, while for blacks it increased 1.8 percentage points, and for whites the increase was 0.9 percentage points. A recent report from the Pew Hispanic Center revealed that Hispanics have also been the biggest losers in terms of wealth since the beginning of the recession, with Hispanic households losing 66% of their median wealth from 2005 to 2009. In comparison, black households lost 53% of their median wealth and white households lost only 16%. {snip}

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  • Kievsky

    Wow, it’s that easy to engineer lower birth rates? Imagine if you offered a couple thousand to get sterilized? There’d be negative birth rates!

    I swear the high birth rates of blacks and Hispanics are being engineered with very generous benefits, freebies and incentives. It would be very easy to go the other way, too.

  • Anonymous

    Jorge Boosh fabricated a housing boom by pushing banks to give sub-prime mortgages to unqualified mestizos and as a result their birth rates went through the roof. It also caused scores of them to pour in during the boom to build houses that shouldn’t have been constructed in the first place. Bush was one of the worst presidents for whites in history, right up there with fellow Texan LBJ.

  • rjf101

    Interesting. If Hispanic birthrates continue to fall, their rate of increase may actually level out with that of the white population. Combine that with the expulsion of illegal aliens and a massive reduction of immigration and grants of citizenship, and our problems are just about solved.

  • Anonymous

    A silver lining in these harsh times why, it gives me some hope for the future of the people of the United States of America. The United States has been bought some more time though how much is unknown and as long as the two political parties hold a strangle hold and the The Mass media retains it’s bias then

    The states future is bleak.

  • Seneca the Younger

    From 2008 to 2009, the birth rate among Hispanics dropped almost 6%. In comparison, blacks experienced a 2.4% decline, and whites experienced a 1.6% decline. While Hispanics continue to have birth rates that are much higher than their non-Hispanic counterparts, the 2009 Hispanic birth rate of 93.3 births per 1000 women of childbearing age is the lowest rate since 1999.

    So Hispanics are now only having 7.8 children on average and blacks are just aiming worse and hitting more infants in drive by’s.

    What will happen when whites are only about 30% and we can’t afford to pay for all the food stamps and welfare?

  • Anonymous

    3 — rjf101 wrote at 9:53 PM on October 17:

    Interesting. If Hispanic birthrates continue to fall, their rate of increase may actually level out with that of the white population. Combine that with the expulsion of illegal aliens and a massive reduction of immigration and grants of citizenship, and our problems are just about solved.

    —————————–

    Which of course will NEVER happen, poster.

    Pew research center? We all know how PEW lies to fool White people some more. People actually believe this piece of garbage?

    As for the “falling” birthrates of hispanics and blacks. That is a TOTAL lie. Go to any schoolyard and any nursery in any hospital in the USA and your eyes will tell you differently.

    Why do people still fall for articles such as this?

  • Anonymous

    This economic crisis certainly has its silver linings. Less immigration, less money for destructive social programs, and now, this.

  • Nick K.

    “Hispanics Hardest Hit by Recession, Show Biggest Fertility Declines”

    Good news! If Hispanic are so responsive to negative economic impetus, then imagine how easy it would be to get them to stop breeding if we offered them tax incentives to have only one child. Of course this would be branded “racist eugenics” (which of course, it is, but that’s a good thing) by the liberal-totalitarian establishment and would never happen. Oh well.

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    Hispanics, whose employment levels and household wealth were particularly hard hit by the Great Recession

    Oh, no need to worry about that in California, things are about to get a lot better viz. hispanic employment, especially for the illegal colonists:

    A bill signed by Gov. Jerry Brown will prohibit cities and counties from requiring businesses to use E-Verify, a controversial federal program that helps employers learn whether the workers they’ve hired are illegal immigrants.

    The legislation signed by Brown last week, Assembly Bill 1236 by Assemblyman Paul Fong, D-Cupertino, would prohibit state agencies and local governments from requiring businesses to use E-Verify as a condition of receiving a government contract or as a condition for applying for a business license.

    Imagine that! Illegal colonists favored over Native Born White Americans in the job market! As if AA weren’t enough.

    Fong stated that e-verify is a ‘hinderance to businesses’ in California! California has some of the most draconian regulations and highest taxes on businesses in the nation yet a democrat is concerned that e-verify might “hinder businesses”??

    Yes, it’s an upside-down world.

    As for hispanic birthrates, Linda Thom writes on VDARE.com:

    Between 2000 and 2008, annual births increased by only 188,880—because births to Whites declined. Births to Hispanic women increased by 225,371 annually and to Asian/Pacific Islanders [API] by 52,642 annually.

    In this same period, annual births to foreign-born mothers increased by 159,356. Therefore, 84 percent of that annual birth increase 188,880 was the result of increased births to immigrants…In 2008, 60 percent of Hispanic birth-mothers and 80 percent of API birth-mothers were immigrants.

    I swear the high birth rates of blacks and Hispanics are being engineered with very generous benefits, freebies and incentives. It would be very easy to go the other way, too.

    –Kievsky

    I agree. It would be easy to go the other way by making sterilization or an IUD a condition of receiving welfare, end fecund non-White, Third World immigration and any and all Third World refugee programs, effective immediately and in perpetuity.

    The present system cannot be maintained as the entitlement class out-breeds and out votes the productive class.

    Or as Ben Franklin put it: When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the Republic.

    I also believe this is being engineered on purpose to destroy White America.

    Bon

  • ice

    That they are claiming Hispanic birth rates are declining due to a falling economy sounds suspect to me, because I’ve never, ever known of these people…as a group…to care whether or not they can support children they bring into this world.

    There has to be another reason for it rather than economic.

  • Stiv

    #6

    Some of you are much too cynical and paranoid. It’s easy to be hopelessly pessimistic.

  • Brendan

    The Mexican birth rate was kept artificially inflated, and the housing bubble sent it plummeting. I predict that Hispanics will in a decade or two have birth rates in the 1.4-per-woman area, lower than whites.

    Why? Because the Catholic Church’s influence has been decaying since Vatican II, and the Mexican nonwhites are increasingly adhering to a far-left Marxist creed directed against the gringos. White post-Catholic countries like Spain and Italy have some of the lowest birth rates in the world. Cuba and now Puerto Rico are trending that way. Other Latin American countries that have actually fallen below the USA in birth rates include Costa Rica, Chile, and giant Brazil.

    White people, on the other hand, are becoming increasingly religious. Evangalical Protestants most of all, but the white Catholics are slowly turning in that direction as well as traditional Catholicism revives (a la the Orthodox taking over the Jewish population), as the liberals in their denominations were and continue to be culled out by abortion and childlessness.

    Also, keep in mind that the black and Hispanic underclasses rely on government handouts, whereas whites try to stand on their own two feet. States and the feds are in cutback mode — and their outlays haven’t even dropped yet.

  • Anonymous

    Birth rates are falling everywhere. Hispanic birth rates in US are falling because birth rates in Latin America are falling sharply. Mexico has total fertility rate of 2.2 or so per female and dropping. And that is close to what US has. It is huge decline from 70-ies and 80-ies when typical mexican female had 6-7 kids. In Brazil TFR is 1.7 and that is much lower than US and below simple reproduction level. Cuba has likely the lowest birth rate on the planet with some 1.3 TRF. Low births in Europe were just the begining of global trend already visible around the world.

  • white is right, black is whack

    What will happen when whites are only about 30% and we can’t afford to pay for all the food stamps and welfare?

    The same thing that is happening in Philly, South Africa and any place where nonwhites–especially blacks–outnumber the whites. At the very least, they will try to raise only white people’s taxes and try to take away our firearms so they can do whatever they want to us.

    Of course, things may change, and the whites remaining will get armed, drop their racial guilt and be willing to do anything to protect their loved ones and others from these hateful, violent, entitlement-minded thugs. People should read Civil War II by Thomas Chittum. He wrote it in 1996, but a lot of what he said has come to fruition.

  • Anonymous

    11 — Stiv wrote at 4:52 PM on October 18:

    #6

    Some of you are much too cynical and paranoid. It’s easy to be hopelessly pessimistic.

    ————————–

    Cynical and paranoid? Sounds like a true anti-white to use those terms.

    Well, Mr. optimist…you did not answer what poster #6 said, I notice. If anyone believes nonwhite birthrates are plummeting in the USA, they are sadly mistaken. BTW, doesn’t the census list as “white” many hispanics, arabs, etc.?

  • Sampson

    @1 Kievsky

    One of the worse incentives for welfare types are the generous subsidized housing which encourages girls or women to get pregnant knowing that they will get their own apartment with all the other blessings of the welfare state. I think that if we severely cut back on this alone, there would be a great drop off of illegitimate births. The unwed moms would not be so eager to share an apartment with their families so they would not be eager to have babies when they are not married.

    The black community should have been losing population for the past 45 years because the marriage rate has been dropping down to something like 20%. They are not marrying, so why are they having babies? Blacks know how to get birth control but if they use birth control they don’t get the government goodies.

    Another way to reduce their population is to keep criminals in prison for the amount of time that their crimes deserve. When criminals are in jail for their most productive crime and reproduction years they will not be making babies that we have to support. Too many liberal judges mean criminals get away with crimes time and time again. While they are out on the streets they not only are committing crimes but they are fathering kids with multiple women.

  • Stiv

    No, Anon. 15, I’m not “anti-white”. This isn’t a club where I have to say just the right thing or I won’t keep my membership. I refuse to adhere to a strict dogma and I will call things as I see them.

    Immediately knocking down the tiniest bit of positive news is demoralizing and counterproductive. Seeing things in total gloom is as unrealistic as always seeing everything with rose-colored glasses. Some people seem to thrive on hopelessness.

    I refuse to believe that every single organization or person in authority is involved in a conspiracy to lie to white Americans about race. I do believe some facts and stats. are just as they’re presented.

    I know it’s anecdotal but I’ve met a few white Hispanics right here in the U.S. And, if Jews are Semites and considered white, by most, then technically Arabs could also be considered white. There can be whites that exist and always have existed outside of the traditional Western culture. Sometimes it may be that culture is the only problem.

  • Sampson

    #9 Bon from the Land of Babble

    How about starting a movement of retired conservatives moving to California to change the voting numbers?

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    How about starting a movement of retired conservatives moving to California to change the voting numbers?

    –Sampson

    Retired folks, conservative or otherwise, can no longer afford to live in California — it has become Brazil! Retired Californians flee the state unless they have A LOT of money — to no-state taxes states like Nevada or Texas or those with cheaper housing such as Arizona.

    To live in even semi-decent, safe areas in California (which are shrinking) takes a tremendous amount of money these days — either behind gates, in 24-hour guarded areas or on secured properties with cameras and guard dogs, surrounded by 10-foot fences — to protect one’s self and loved ones from the encroaching Third World.

    The quality of life here and personal safety have deteriorated over the past two decades as the Third World continues to pour into the once-Golden State, businesses close up due to onerous taxes and regulations and the productive base shrinks. And, of course, the statehouse is in the hands of pro-WIDE open borders, “tax the millionaires and businesses”, White-hating Marxists.

    When I look around, hear no English, see not a White face anywhere, I sometimes feel as if I’m the last White left in the state.

    Bon