L.A. County Redistricting Without Maps: Do People Vote Based on Race?

Gene Maddaus, LA Weekly, September 23, 2011

The L.A. County redistricting battle will come to its dramatic conclusion next Tuesday. {snip}

Today, it’s time to get to the issue on which this entire debate depends: Do people vote based on race?

It’s a tricky question to answer, but the county has to resolve it. If people do vote based on race, then the county has to draw a second Latino district. If they don’t, then the county can maintain the status quo.

{snip}

Matt Barreto, a Latino political scientist, studied 43 elections over the past 15 years in L.A. County. According to his report, he found evidence of “racially polarized voting” in 41 of them. Let’s walk through a few of Barreto’s examples. First up, Antonio Villaraigosa. Villaraigosa’s 2005 victory represented a Latino breakthrough. That makes it easy to forget his 2001 defeat. That’s the one in which Jim Hahn used a crack pipe to scare people away from him–not so uplifting.

{snip} Two thirds of non-Latinos voted for Hahn, while Latinos overwhelmingly backed Villaraigosa.

OK, well that’s just one election. And maybe there were substantive, non-crack-pipe reasons to vote against Villaraigosa. Fair enough. So let’s move on to the 2003 recall election of Gov. Gray Davis.

This election was unique because voters had to vote twice–first, either for or against the recall, and then, for a replacement candidate.

The Democratic Party urged a “no on recall, yes on Bustamante position.” As we can see, Latinos did that–voting in equal measures for Gray Davis and for Cruz Bustamante.

But no other group did. In each case, there was a significant drop from Davis to Bustamante.

{snip}

So let’s look at an election that most voters probably gave no thought to at all: the 2010 Democratic primary for state Insurance Commissioner.

This race featured two nearly identical candidates: Assemblyman Dave Jones and Assemblyman Hector De La Torre. The race was so far down the ballot that voters are unlikely to have spent much time researching it. The only difference most voters would have seen was between their surnames.

And that was enough to create substantial racial polarization. In L.A. County, according to Barreto’s research, non-Latinos actually voted in greater proportion for Jones than Latinos voted for De La Torre. {snip}

Barreto’s conclusion is pretty stark: “The most likely voting pattern to emerge is that White voters side with White candidates, Black voters side with Black candidates, Latino voters side with Latino candidates, and Asian voters side with Asian candidates . . . These voting patterns have consistently been found in rigorous statistical analysis from 1960 to 2010 in Los Angeles.”

{snip}

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  • Anonymous

    So basically this is saying that people self-segregate, see the world mostly in terms of their own race, and so cannot really be considered one common people.

    Where are the lefty’s to answer this?

  • Anonymous

    Another statistical nail in the coffin for the slogan, “Diversity is our strength.” Division is our reality. But don’t expect any broad discussion of the problems this is causing and will continue to create until societal collapse occurs. When that happens there will still be millions of Nero’s, fiddling while their own home burns.

  • True Blue

    Odd, isn’t it; that when black or brown racism determines the results of elections, they bend over backwards to accomodate and reward them.

    But ‘evil, racist’ Whites must Never be allowed….

    Typical.

  • Anonymous

    “White voters side with White candidates, Black voters side with Black candidates, Latino voters side with Latino candidates, and Asian voters side with Asian candidates … These voting patterns have consistently been found in rigorous statistical analysis from 1960 to 2010 in Los Angeles.”

    But White people and ONLY White people are “racist”.

  • WR the elder

    Diversity destroys democracy. Without diversity people vote on the basis of competing policies. With diversity people vote along racial lines.

  • Anonymous

    I always vote White when it comes to the race of the candidate. I was so sorry to see Pat Buchanan have Ezola Foster, a black woman, as his running mate back when. I thought he had more sense. I could care less if she was “conservative, independent or whatever, she was black.

  • Anonymous

    3 — True Blue wrote at 7:46 PM on September 23:

    Odd, isn’t it; that when black or brown racism determines the results of elections, they bend over backwards to accomodate and reward them.

    But ‘evil, racist’ Whites must Never be allowed….

    Typical.

    ————————————————————————-Yes, true Blue, that’s exactly it. The leftist- indoctrinated people I know (especially the women, sad to say, will answer the seeming dilemma here with not even a shrug. A non- response. If you press them on it, they will get angry.

    When you’re addressing religious zealots, you’re not supposed to raise questions about the faith. It puts the zealot’s mind too close to the truth, and a very uncomfortable cognitive dissonance sets in, and makes then VERY squirmy. Their depression, their anxiety, and all their personality flaws creep closer to the surface.

    You’re tearing at the protective facades they’ve wrapped themselves in. If you were to take down the illusions of goodness they built, by ascribing to the religion of multiculturalism, political correctness and demonizing white male society, they’d just be ordinary, flawed people. They’d be nobodies. Remember, they put a lot of their identity into that religion. It is necessary for their self- esteem.

    Threatening an internally weak person with such questions is almost like assault; they get really scared and angry.

  • Paleface 6

    I bet this guy got a $1 million grant from the Obamugabe administration to study this question.

    I wonder what he did with the other $995,000.

  • sbuffalonative

    Barreto’s conclusion is pretty stark

    People self-segregate and vote according to racial-ethnic self-interests. Diversity is not unity, it’s division.

    The self-annointed eggheads will scratch their heads and try to find ways to fix a problem that isn’t a problem and doesn’t need to be fixed.

  • sheila

    uhhhh…

    If whites vote *white* then why is Obama president?

  • sheila

    I am reminded of an essay written in THE REAL AMERICAN DILEMMA edited by JT. This one is by Michael Hart. Everyone should get this book (well, not a BOOK but a collection of essays) and read it, offer it to as many people as possible (really I ain’t getting paid for that statement…in a way it made me homesick for I’LL TAKE MY STAND by the old Agrarians at Vanderbilt…a must read for any true understanding of how we got where we are in the good old US of A.). This is off the cuff ‘cuz I don’t want to go round up the book to quote from it…but Hart has posed an interesting idea about the sectioning of America along race lines…seems there were three…one society with whites, another for blacks and a third for *mixed*…it’s something to consider since society seems to already exist *informally* along those lines anyway. Don’t hesitate to correct me if I am recalling incorrectly the author or essence of this essay.

  • Tom S.

    #10 – Sheila – uhhhh…

    If whites vote *white* then why is Obama president?

    Exactly! I can think of numerous White areas that have elected a non-White over a White, but I can’t think of ANY non-White area thats elected a White over a non-White. I always like bashing that fact over a liberals head when having a “conversation” about race.

  • Anonymous

    I lived in East LA in the early 2000s. The area was solidly Mexican and non-English speaking. Needless to say, the ONLY lawn signs at election time were for Democrat candidates — one of whom had signs bearing the slogan “NUESTRA COMMUNIDAD PRIMO”, which means “OUR COMMUNITY FIRST.”

    “OUR COMMUNITY” referring, of course, to the HISPANIC community. Hispanic politicians in LA not only get close to 100% of the hispanic vote, they are also emboldened enough to make DIRECT RACIAL APPEALS to that vote about “Our Community”. And of course direct and unambiguous appeals to support their “Raza.”

    Learning that LA votes along racial lines (well, except for whites, who are frequently convinced to vote for nonwhites) shouldn’t have needed this “study”. All that was needed was to take a brief drive through Echo Park, Elysian Park, Boyle Heights, etc, during any election season when the lawn signs were out. Just a few minutes observing the area’s front lawns from the inside of a moving car (preferably with windows up and doors locked) would have told these “researchers” everything they needed to know about Brown Solidarity and ethnic voting patterns.

  • sheila

    #12 – Tom S – uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    Exactly my point, lover. All other races vote along race lines, and why shouldn’t they? If *whites* had not been yoked with the *white guilt* factor over slavery in America, which in and of itself is a fantastically absurd concept (but *concepts* alter worlds) in one sense, yet an absolute marvel of social manipulation and/or political-social engineering on the other hand ! (how else to bring the black into society as functioning citizens other than offering them heads-up preferences via affirmative action programs for housing, college, jobs, training and so forth… generation after generation of selective treatment programs by the government and encouraged by the very element -white guilt- that brings it about in the first place!) by the silly old commies of the old school Marxists in America…so now it has become a way of life…whites are not only split along *white guilt* and gender lines, but social, political, and philosophical lines as well. I understand the Republicans had a straw poll resulting in a black CEO of Godfather’s Pizza winning out on popularity…That is wonderful…The Republicans might possibly groom this man and then we will have an election in America where both political parties offer up black men (the white woman in America cast aside once again) as their candidates for President…then again there is always a possibility of a THIRD PARTY …yet those people seem to have a history of being killed or shot at.

    (yawn)

  • Chinh

    I can think of non-whites who would vote for a white over a non-white. I bet you in the next election, the majority of Asian voters will vote for the white republican over Obama. Don’t lump all nonwhites in the same category please.

  • Anonymous

    It was the blacks, not the Whites who defeated Villagroisa.

    Hahn’s Father was city council man of a White district that went black in the 1950’s. He did a lot for his black district, particularly in affirmative action which resulted in county employemtn being 38 percent black when there were only 10 percent blacks in Los Angeles county.

    He also rammed through the massive promotion of blacks as school principals and administrators.

    The blacks owe a lot to Hahn Sr. So they went all out to elect Hahn Jr over Villagroisa.

    That 2001 election was blacks putting in their White leader’s son.

  • Anonymous

    #10 – Sheila – uhhhh…

    If whites vote *white* then why is Obama president?

    I live in an all White section of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills, Brentwood, West Los Angeles Santa Monica area. A million dollar home is considered cheap in the area, even if it is a 2,000 sq ft 50’s tract home. Prices have not gone down during this depression. 1 to 5 million is the going rate for a house on a quarter acre lot. 800,000 for a condo.

    I saw many Obama signs. I do not remember seeing even 1 McCain sign. I remember one morning at the Pico WW starbucks. It has its own parking lot. Every car in the lot had an Obama sticker.

    The cheapest car in the lot was in the 50,000 dollar range. They were all new. Every person in the Starbucks was White.

    Most of the expensive cars parked along San Vicente and Brentwood Blvds had Obama stickers Prices of anything, from ice cream to clothes to a manicure on those streets are the highest prices in the city, far higher than Beverly Hills. Every person but the hispanic maids and black bus drivers and mail carriers on those streets is White.

    I saw obama

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    The L.A. County redistricting battle will come to its dramatic conclusion next Tuesday.

    The battle is over how to divide up LA County’s districts to create a “fair” Board of Supervisors (what we locals call the Board of STUPIDvisors).

    This is not surprising and is a result of the continuing race-replacement and demise of LA’s White AND black populations. It is mostly about declining black and White demographics and rising hispanic demands and political power as their numbers grow due to years of unfettered immigration and high birth rates.

    It was only a matter of time. MALDEF, the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund, says the current districts as drawn violate the Voting Rights Act and that it’s time to add another Latino seat. They may be right: Latinos now make up 33% of the voters and 47% of LA county and this will only increase.

    But, which current seat has to give?? None of the current supervisors wishes to budge, find his current district flooded with Latinos or find himself running against a Latino Supremacist who mandates that he is going to “look out for his own.”

    But it is only a matter of time; all anyone with 1/2 a brain has to do is look at any elementary school in LA county.

    According to publicceo.com:

    The Board of Supervisors has traditionally had and continues to have one African American seat (Ridley-Thomas), one Republican seat (Antonovich), one squishy Republican coastal seat (Knabe), one Jewish seat (Yaroslavsky) and just one Latino seat (Molina).

    Ridley-Thomas (black) has already thrown his lot in with the hispanics and is screaming about the Voting Rights Act. Thomas knows the black population of LA has waned and blacks are losing their traditional rioting grounds to hispanics (as they continue to fully support black open-borders pols).

    Vote along racial lines?

    For non-Whites, this is not even questioned; for Whites, it is considered racist. THIS is the attitude what we must break! Speak to everyone you know, all your family members even the lefty ones — ask if they think 0bama or any other black or hispanic represents THEIR White interests. Ask if 0bama or the local pols are in favor of White discrimination such as AA or race-based college admissions that will affect their own children. Do the politicians they support want to implement more White discrimination, more anti-White quotas based on race? Is this what they want? Ask why it’s OK for other races to promote for themselves but not Whites?

    Ask if they realize we Whites are being systematically eliminated, there’s plenty of evidence to prove your point, especially if you live in California or the Southwest.

    Keep pounding on this. I do. We are in a War for Our Survival. I also donate, as much as possible, to candidates and causes that represent my interests, the interests of my family and extended family, the White Race.

    Finally, from our friends at AP3:

    The good news here is that it’s hard to believe that Whites won’t begin to identify as Whites and begin to act accordingly when they see that they can’t win elections any longer, even with very strong White majorities voting Republican.

    Yes, before it’s too late; it’s already too late in Los Angeles.

    Bon

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    #15 Chinh writes:

    I can think of non-whites who would vote for a white over a non-white. I bet you in the next election, the majority of Asian voters will vote for the white republican over Obama. Don’t lump all nonwhites in the same category please

    You, of course, have a point. But that is only because Asians do not have the numbers…yet.

    But, as the Asian population continues to grow, Asians are increasingly demanding their ‘fair’ share of the racial spoils and race-based political power reflecting their own racial interests.

    See this article by Jared Taylor: Asians Put Foot in Racial Spoils Trough

    http://goo.gl/XB3pC

    You see, race-based advocacy and promotion is OK for Asians, never for Whites.

    Bon

  • Anonymous

    Not all hispanics vote democrat. Arnold Schwarzenegger won the governer’s seat with the hispance vote. He, of course, had to accept open borders and welfare for illegals. Also, he is our last white Republican governor in California. Right now, our governor is a spineless, white liberal hippie. The next governor will be a Hugo Chavez type.

    Curiously, the current governor of Puerto Rico, Luis Fortuño, is a Republican. I don’t know much about his politics, but he looks very presentable and impressive.

  • rjf101

    “Exactly! I can think of numerous White areas that have elected a non-White over a White, but I can’t think of ANY non-White area thats elected a White over a non-White.”

    Actually, some major minority-majority cities have elected whites as mayors even in recent years. New York, which is 36% white, has a white mayor right now, and in fact Mayor Dinkins, who is mulatto, was the only minority mayor NYC has ever had, despite whites having been a minority since before 1990. Chicago (white is about 30% white) also consistently has white mayors, the most recent being Richard M. Daley, who served from 1989 to 2011. The current mayor, Rahm Emanuel, is Jewish but he looks darker-skinned than most Jews. Los Angeles, which has been minority-majority since 1980, elected its first non-white mayor in 2005 (Villaraigosa). The same can be seen even in South Africa, where the premier (governor) of the Western Cape Province (18% white) is a white Afrikaner woman.

    So, typically, whites still form the political majority, even in areas where they are not nearly as significant demographically. The reason for this is possibly due to the fact that whites are more likely to be voters than non-whites. In New York, for example, I heard somewhere that over 70% of regular voters are white. Not sure if that’s true, but it would explain why whites still dominate city politics. Also, if people do vote along racial lines, then theoretically whites would only lose political power in areas where they are a true minority, and not a plurality. This could explain some situations, such as New York, where whites are still the largest group, though not an outright majority.