Posted on October 28, 2004

Minority Turnout is Kerry Key

Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, October 27, 2004

Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their third likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the remaining 12 battleground states.* In the three-way Presidential ballot, the race is dead tied in these crucial battleground states with BOTH President Bush and Sen. Kerry receiving 47% of the vote. Ralph Nader receives 1.6% while just 4% of the battleground state likely voters are undecided. “110 days after our first battleground survey, during which these voters withstood tens of millions of dollars of attack ads by both sides, two national conventions and three prime-time, televised debates, this race hasn’t changed one iota statistically in these battleground states. This data underscores just how little relevance national polling has in this race, given the consistency of the battleground data versus the weekly swings in the media’s national tracking surveys. However, a minor, but troubling trend nonetheless for the President is the evaporating support for Ralph Nader. Nader’s support has gone from minuscule to microscopic which benefits Sen. Kerry,” said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ‘96 Presidential campaign.

However, when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry’s lead expands to 5. 2% “It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry,” Fabrizio concluded.