W. Moore, Gallup News Service, Jul. 6
PRINCETON, NJA new Gallup survey,
which includes large oversamples of blacks and Hispanics, finds
President George W. Bush losing the support of Hispanic voters.
In the 2000 election, former Vice President Al Gore easily won the
Hispanic vote, 62% to 35%, according to the networks exit
poll. But early in his presidency, Bush seemed to overcome the Democratic
tendency of most Hispanics, receiving job approval ratings from
that group at the same level as from non-Hispanic whites.
In the past year, Bushs job
approval rating among Hispanics dropped significantly, while approval
from whites declined only modestly. Now, more Hispanics disapprove
than approve of Bushs performance, and a majority indicate
they will vote for Sen. John Kerry and for the Democratic representative
in their districts in this falls elections. Blacks overwhelmingly
support the Kerry candidacy, disapprove of Bush, and expect to vote
Democratic in their congressional districts. Blacks typically show
strong support for Democratic candidates.
The poll was conducted June 9-30,
and the sample includes approximately 800 non-Hispanic whites, 800
blacks, and 500 Hispanics. Both the two-way hypothetical contest
between Bush and Kerry, and the three-way contest that includes
independent Ralph Nader, show a virtual tie overall, with Bush having
a one-point lead in each case among registered voters. In the two-way
contest, Bush enjoys a 12-point lead over Kerry among whites, 53%
to 41%. But among blacks, Kerry wins overwhelmingly (81% to 12%),
and among Hispanics he enjoys a 19-point lead (57% to 38%).
With Nader in the race, the overall
figures still show Bush with a one-point advantage. Margins among
the racial/ethnic groups vary only a little from the two-way contest.
Third-party candidate Nader polls as well among blacks as does Bush.
The decline in Hispanic support for
the president can be seen in the trend on Bush approval. In June
2001, Hispanics and whites expressed the same level of approval
for Bushs performance. In the next two years as well, there
was little difference between the two groups in their support for
Bush. But the most recent survey finds a 27-point drop in Hispanic
approval compared with June 2003, from 67% to 40%, at the same time
that approval among whites declined only 8 points (69% to 61%).
Black support for Bush also dropped
in the past year, from 32% approval to just 16% today.
The generic ballot, which asks voters
which partys candidate they expect to vote for in their congressional
districts, shows a moderately close contest among whites, with Republicans
leading Democrats by six points (48% to 42%). However, a large majority
of Hispanics say they will vote Democratic (by 60% to 35%), and
overwhelmingly, blacks will vote for the Democratic candidates in
their districts (83% to 14%).