Most White Republicans at Least Slightly Agree with the Great Replacement Theory

Last year on June 1, 2022, the Southern Poverty Law Center released the findings of a poll they conducted on the Great Replacement and other topics from April 18–25, 2022.[1] Around the same time on May 24, 2022, Yahoo News/YouGov released their findings from a poll conducted from May 19–22 about the Great Replacement and other topics as well.[2]

The Homeland Institute conducted a follow-up poll of our own from August 29, 2023 through September 11, 2023 which asked 797 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American voters to see if we could replicate some of the SPLC and YouGov findings. (Our margin of error is 3%.)

Some of our major findings are that:

• 59.4% of Republicans said they had not even heard of the Great Replacement theory until they were polled, but 62.4% nonetheless at least slightly agreed with the Great Replacement theory once it was succinctly explained to them.
• Respondents who had previously heard of the Great Replacement theory tended to have learned about it relatively recently.
• 68.5% of all respondents and 69.7% of Republicans had not heard of the White Genocide theory until polled.
• “Alternate” news sources as opposed to “Alt-Right” sources were the leading way in which respondents had learned about the Great Replacement.
• “Friends or family” as opposed to “Alt-Right” sources were another leading way in which respondents learned about the Great Replacement.
• X/Twitter and other forms of online discussion were the leading ways in which those aged 18–29 and 30–44 had learned about the Great Replacement theory.
• 6.1% of Republican respondents said they are opposed to preserving a white majority. They are well outnumbered by the 14.8% of Democrat respondents who said preserving a white majority was at least somewhat important to them.
• 50% of Republicans would support a candidate who proposed an immigration program explicitly designed to maintain America’s white majority.

We explained to the respondents that the Great Replacement theory is the claim that political elites around the world are intentionally replacing whites with non-whites, and then asked them whether they:  1) disagreed that whites were being replaced, 2) agreed whites are being replaced but that this is unintentional, or 3) agreed whites are being replaced and that this is intentional.

• 50% of Republicans agreed with the Great Replacement theory, while 20.9% believed that whites are being replaced, but unintentionally.
• 72.5% of Democrats disagreed that whites are being replaced at all, with the rest evenly split on whether replacement is intentional or not. The result is surprising, given that an important Democrat talking point is that whites will be a minority in the 2040s. Further polling is needed to see if these Democrats are just falsifying their opinions, if they are genuinely ignorant, or if they hold blatantly contradictory beliefs. It is a widespread “meme” that Leftists will move from denying replacement to claiming that it is a boon to claiming that it is a just punishment for white people’s sins—often within the same conversation. It would be interesting to test this meme against hard evidence.
• 44.9% of Independents disagreed that whites are being replaced, with the rest split equally on whether white replacement was intentional or not.

We also modeled a question on one from the SPLC’s 2022 poll: “In recent decades, America’s demographic makeup has changed. The percentage of whites has declined while the percentage of non-whites has risen. Agree or disagree: this is not a natural change but has been promoted by progressive and liberal leaders trying to increase their political power by replacing more conservative white voters with non-whites.” Respondents could strongly disagree, slightly disagree, slightly agree, strongly agree, or say they don’t know.

• Among Republicans, 33.9% strongly agreed, and 28.5% slightly agreed, for a total of 62.4% agreeing in some form or another.
• The SPLC poll found that 38% of Republicans strongly agreed and 30% slightly agreed, for a total of 68% agreeing in some form or another.[3]
• The Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that found that 61% of Trump voters agreed with the statement that “a group of people in this country are trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants and people of color who share their political views.”

We plan to run the same or similar poll a year from now in the run up to the 2024 election to see if these numbers change.

The above numbers are actually quite encouraging given the lack of awareness on the Great Replacement theory among respondents, with 51.6% of all respondents and 59.4% of Republicans saying they had not even heard of the Great Replacement theory until they had taken our poll.

• About 13% of all respondents and Republicans had heard of the Great Replacement theory but could not recall when.
• 18.3% of all respondents and 16.1% of Republicans had heard about it within the last two years
• 12.2% of all respondents and 7.3% of all Republicans had heard of it within the last five years
• 4.6% of all respondents and 3.6% of all Republicans had heard it within the last ten years.

This strongly suggests that most people have only relatively recently become informed about the Great Replacement.

Familiarity with the White Genocide theory—which claims that whites are being intentionally replaced in their homelands by non-whites and that this constitutes genocide as defined by the United Nations—was even lower. 68.5% of all respondents said they had not heard of it until now, along with 69.7% of Republicans. The data for when people learned about the White Genocide theory was very similar to the data on when people first learned about the Great Replacement.

Obviously, we wanted to know how people were learning about the Great Replacement, and therefore asked respondents how they had become familiar with it, allowing them to choose multiple options.

• Unsurprisingly, the biggest overall source at 13.9% were mainstream media attempts to counter the Great Replacement theory. This was by far the biggest source among Democrats.
• Only 4.1% overall and 3.6% of Republicans had learned about the Great Replacement from “Alt-Right” groups and platforms.
• “Alternative” news sources came in at 13.5% overall and 15.5% for Republicans, which was also the most common way for Republicans to learn about the Great Replacement.
• Friends or family was a close runner up among Republicans at 14.2%.

We also broke down data on how people are learning about the Great Replacement by age bracket.[4] Among those aged 18–29:

• 14.9% learned about the Great Replacement through X (formerly known as Twitter)
• 19.1% learned about it through online discussion such as Discord servers, multi-player video games, 4-chan, or forums
• 11.7% learned about it from alternative media
• 11.7% learned about it through friends or family
• 4.3% learned directly from Alt-Right platforms

For those aged 30–44:

• 10.3% learned about the Great Replacement through X/Twitter
• 16% through online discussion
• 16% from alternative media
• 15% from friends or family
• 3.3% from Alt-Right platforms

We also asked another question from the SPLC’s poll verbatim: “Do you feel the changing demographics of America pose a threat to white Americans and their culture and values, or not? (IF YES) Do you feel that way strongly, somewhat, or only a little?”

The SPLC’s responses among Republicans from last year were 30% for yes, strongly; 23% for yes, somewhat; and 5% for yes, only a little.

Our numbers among Republicans were 25.2% for yes, strongly; 25.2% for yes, somewhat; and 22.1% for yes, only a little.

The total numbers of those who felt changing demographics pose at least some threat to white America was 58% for the SPLC poll and 72.4% for our poll. The biggest growth was in the “yes, only a little” category. This is intriguing. Is the “yes, only a little” answer equivalent to beginning in the shallow end of the pool before going deeper? We will investigate this in a follow-up poll.

Furthermore, we found that 40.6% of white Independents and even 16.8% of white Democrats felt that changing demographics pose at least some threat to white America.

We also asked “If you support preserving the white majority in America, how important of a political issue is it to you?”

• 51.2% of Republicans, 23.1% of Independents, and 14.8% of Democrats said it was at least somewhat important.
• In contrast, 46.6% of Democrats, 21.7% of Independents, and only 6.1% of Republicans oppose preserving the white majority. The rest of the respondents either did not know, or neither supported nor opposed preserving the white majority.

Finally, we asked if respondents would support a candidate who proposed immigration policies to preserve the white majority in America. The results were surprising.

• 50% of Republicans said they would agree with such policies, which was very close to the 51.2% who said preserving the white majority in America was at least somewhat important to them.
• However, 24.9% of Republicans said they would oppose such legislation, whereas only 6.1% of Republicans actually opposed preserving the white majority.

If only 6.1% of Republicans oppose preserving the white majority, why would 24.9% oppose immigration policies designed to preserve the white majority? A possible explanation is that when one asks about political policies, as opposed to personal preferences, people take into account what they believe others will think about such policies. Perhaps many Republicans who want to preserve the white majority think that such a policy would be politically unviable because too many people in and outside their party would oppose it.

However, the data from our poll suggest that such legislation might actually make a candidate more electable. This is further buttressed by Trump’s victory in 2016 which was in large part due to his proposed policy of “Build the Wall,” which was interpreted as a demographic policy in all but name.

What are some lessons from this poll?

Education Is Working, but There’s More Work to Do

The Great Replacement was first coined in France by Renaud Camus in 2011. Since then, it has gone from the margins of White Nationalist discourse to a mainstream Republican belief in the United States. This is tremendously encouraging for advocates of white identity politics and tremendously unsettling for its opponents. Ultimately, white identitarians must take credit for this change. They created the meme, propagated it largely online, and persisted until the public began catching up with them. Efforts that began in 2011 have been most fruitful within the past five years, especially the last two.

Nevertheless, there is much more room for education. Again:

• 51.6% of all respondents and 59.4% of Republicans said they had not even heard of the Great Replacement theory until they had taken our poll.
• 68.5% of all respondents and 69.7% of Republicans said they had not heard of the related White Genocide theory (also coined in 2011) until they had taken our poll.

But as our poll itself showed, many people are quick studies: even though nearly 60% of Republicans had not heard of the Great Replacement before our poll, 50% agreed that it is happening, and another 20% claimed whites were being replaced, albeit unintentionally.

White Identitarians Influence the Mainstream Through Intermediary Sources

Even though the Great Replacement theory has become mainstreamed, very few people have heard about it directly from white identitarian sources. According to our poll, only 4.3% of those aged 18–29 and only 3.3% of those aged 30–44 learned about the Great Replacement directly from Alt-Right platforms. Far more important sources are:

• Alternative media
• X/Twitter
• Forums and gaming servers

From this, we can draw several conclusions:

• Alternative news sources which are sometimes condemned as “gate keepers” are functioning more like “bridge builders,” whether they intend to or not.
• Identitarians who adopt a strategy of antagonizing people closer to the mainstream are self-defeating and self-ghettoizing.
• If you want to influence the mainstream, get back on Twitter. If your particular message is banned, try reformulating it. If your particular brand is banned, consider changing it. If your name is blacklisted, create a pen name.

The take away here is that dissidents interacting with more mainstream figures and platforms which have larger audiences is not “clout chasing” or “compromise” but rather a highly effective tool of spreading our ideas.

Real-World Activism Begins at Home

Despite the immense importance of the internet, “friends or family” were another common source for learning about the Great Replacement. Thus it is a mistake to think that the only alternative to online education is joining activist groups and dealing with the public. The “real world” includes the private as well as the public realms, individual as well as group efforts. One can have an immense impact simply by educating one’s friends and family, building social skills and arguments that could later be used with the wider public.

The GOP Needs to Appeal to White Ethnic Interests

50% of white Republicans would support immigration policies explicitly designed to preserve America’s white majority. Moreover, the 25% who oppose such policies and the 25% who are unsure might rapidly change their views when they learn that such policies are popular. Yet not a single Republican would actively court such voters, at least at present. However, as political and racial polarization in America become more acute, the Republican taboo against white identity politics might melt as fast as the taboos on criticizing immigration and globalization did, once Donald Trump decided to compete on them in 2015. It only takes one principled—or merely ambitious—politician or pundit to shift the Overton window.

The Homeland Institute will repeat this poll annually to track how the public mind evolves on this issue.