Posted on June 16, 2020

40% of GOP Voters Think Civil War Likely

Rasmussen Reports, June 15, 2020


The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 34% of Likely U.S. Voters think the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, but that includes only nine percent (9%) who say it’s Very Likely. This compares to 31% and 11% respectively two years ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

While Democrats were more worried about pending civil war in 2018, now Republicans (40%) are more likely than Democrats (28%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (38%) to see a second civil war on the horizon.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of all voters believe the removal of Confederate symbols, names and monuments throughout the country honoring those who fought in the first civil war will help race relations. Twenty-seven percent (27%) disagree and think it will hurt race relations instead. These numbers are reversed from August 2017 when 28% said removal of the symbols would help race relations, while 39% thought it would hurt instead. Little changed is the 28% who think the removal of public traces of the Confederacy will have no impact.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) feel the current protests over the killing of an unarmed black man by police in Minneapolis will lead to long-term, meaningful racial change in America. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree, while just as many (32%) are not sure.


Just 29% of blacks believe the current protests will lead to long-term, meaningful racial change in America, compared to 35% of whites and 48% of other minority voters. Blacks (54%) are far more confident than whites (36%) and other minorities (40%), however, that the removal of Confederate symbols, names and monuments will help race relations.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats think getting rid of all traces of the Confederacy will help race relations, a view shared by only 19% of Republicans and 31% of unaffiliated voters.