Study Simulates Likelihood of Ebola Spread

Matt Picht, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, September 5, 2014

As the Ebola epidemic in West Africa continues to worsen at an alarming rate, health officials have issued increasingly dire warnings about the possibility of a global outbreak.

“Six months into the worst Ebola epidemic in history, the world is losing the battle to contain it,” Doctors Without Borders International President Joanne Liu said to PBS.

“Every day this outbreak goes on, it increases the risk for another export to another country,” CDC Director Tom Frieden said to CNN:

Now, a new analysis published this week in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks has shed some light on the possibility of Ebola traveling outside of West Africa.

Using WHO data, researchers simulated potential situations where Ebola could spread to other countries by studying air traffic patterns and mobility between infected and non-infected countries. They ran simulations on two dates, Sept. 1 and Sept. 22. Their predictions show a sharp increase in the probability of another country getting infected. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. had only a five percent chance of importing an outbreak. By the 22nd, the probability jumps up to 18 percent.

“What is happening in West Africa is going to get here. We can’t escape that at this point. . . . Sooner or later, they will arrive,” Alessandro Vespignani, the study’s author, told NPR.

{snip} Contrast that with the U.K., which has an infection risk of 25-28 percent by the end of the month.

{snip}

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  • What I bet they found but aren’t telling us that the “American” vector for Ebola to make the jump from western Africa to the United States are black American ghettos.

    • There is no animal reservoir here, as the reserve for this group of diseases is fruit bats. We don’t have them in North America – the winters are too cold.

      • Zimriel

        … no animal reservoir that we know of. Suppose ebola gets into a roach population, or a species of mouse, or stray cats or pigeons. Probably the virus won’t take. That’s a lot of hope to place on a “probably”.

      • Valmont

        In Africa it is also carried by rats which, as with bats, the locals eat.
        Rats have occasionally been spotted in America’s vibrant cities.

      • Anglokraut

        But fruit bats ARE found in Mexico, aren’t they? Lately anything there inevitably finds a way to come here. If it weren’t for my personal physical proximity to Mexico and Mexicans, an Ebola outbreak in Mexico might finally be what it takes to militarize the border…though I wouldn’t be surprised if it required a military coup.

        • Stan D Mute

          We need an American Pinochet.

          • General Pinochet crossed the line with torture, but the free-market reforms he ordered were very successful for Chile.

          • ElGringo

            I don’t think torture is crossing the line at all. Some “people” simply need to be tortured in order to get it through their thick marxist skulls how hated they are. It’s not something to fret over if they deserve it.

          • Stan D Mute

            Sometimes you must break some eggs to make an omelet my brother. How do you deal with hardcore committed communist/socialists who believe terror is an appropriate tool for implementing socialism? Pinochet took them for helicopter rides. And Chile is the most stable and successful country in South America while America is headed into the toilet.

            Fanaticism is and has always been the problem. How can you deal with fanatical Islamists or socialists in a free society? It’s one thing if they’re flapping their gums in the coffee houses, but another thing entirely when they’re blowing things up, killing people, and taking control of the country. It’s a tough question isn’t it? Our George Washington was a terrorist until the King gave up and granted America it’s independence – then Washington became President and “Father of the Country.”

          • Fathercoughlin

            We need an American Hitler!

          • Bill Moore

            Hello,

            We need an American Putin.

            Putin has the best interests of his own country at heart.

            We could use a little of that in the USA.

            Just My Thoughts,
            Bill Moore

          • Stan D Mute

            Really? How, exactly, would nationalizing the economy, rounding up the Jews and mental defectives, help? From my experience, Jews aren’t committing crimes nor are they bleeding the treasury or destroying the mores of the nation. And adding more socialism is the opposite of what we need.

  • Samuel_Morton

    Ebola – yet another means for Africa to “enrich” the world.

  • MekongDelta69

    Who says Africa never gave us anything in return?

    So ‘unfair.’ So ‘racist.’ So ‘colonialist.’ So ‘imperialist.’ So ‘xenophobic.’
    (Did I leave out anything? Jes’ axin’)

    • TruthBeTold

      If some nut job goes off about Europeans spreading small pox, tell them Africans spread Ebola.

  • Tim_in_Indiana

    At the beginning of the month, the U.S. had only a five percent chance of importing an outbreak. By the 22nd, the probability jumps up to 18 percent.

    An 18 percent chance of importing a deadly disease that should be 0%. More proof that the country has gone insane.

    • Sick of it

      Those in charge are insane. Quite a few people are against the garbage they keep pushing but won’t take the necessary steps to stop this insane government.

    • Valmont

      If the risk can more than triple in 3 weeks, what will it be by Election Day?

  • Zimriel

    Just for comparison’s sake, since I majored in statistics and all – your chance of losing a single round of traditional Russian Roulette is 16.67%.

    • The estimate is 28% that Britain will have an outbreak. Your chance of losing two rounds of Russian Roulette is 30.5% if you spin the cylinder after squeezing the trigger the first time, and 36.7% if you squeeze twice without spinning the cylinder. I have never played Russian Roulette on my own, but that is what our governments are doing with us.

  • willbest

    As long as it stays a fluid contact virus, it would be pretty easy to live through a US epidemic. Blacks, gays, and Mexicans would face the brunt of it. Probably wouldn’t even touch the white neighborhoods.

    It would probably be far more of an economic killer than a people killer

    • IstvanIN

      How would it be an economic killer? Vast numbers of blacks are economically useless. Mexicans are an inexhaustible resource (unfortunately). White gays are probably a net-economic plus but are such a small minority I can not imagine a huge economic impact. And the fatalities seem to happen relatively quickly so we are not talking large numbers of people taking years to die like cancer. So how do you see a negative impact?

      • willbest

        I am in the Chicago suburbs, and if there were an Ebola outbreak in the inner city I wouldn’t be heading into the city for any reason. I would limit my family’s exposure to large groups of other people. No school, restaurants, gyms/sports, etc. And I would also be very leery of having people of any kind come to my house.

        Given that these are rational precautions while death is spreading through an area, it is likely I won’t be the only one doing it.

      • They are not merely useless, but are of negative net worth.

      • M&S

        In a nation of millions where each sees hundreds every day they have not nor ever will likely see again, the notion that Ebola would be containable once it began spreading past the third or fourth victim association is ludicrous.
        I know street people who will not touch a man, fist to fist, even though they are best of friends, because of their fear of catching something they can’t treat (scabies is particulary bad).
        Even if everyone pulled back and maintained strict quarantine procedures to the extent of ‘not having working contact more than the span of immediate coworkers and family’ (say four people in each acquaintance group), the chances of spreading the disease through simple food distribution services would be enormous for the high-risk workers who did nothing but drop off packets and pick up trash.
        Now consider what would happen to the work production of a nation so afflicted.

    • Periapsis

      Ebola is beyond any doubt capable of spreading through the air. That is, virus particles can survive drifting in the air long enough to travel through ventilation systems and still be infectious upon inhalation by another individual. This ghastly discovery was made at a monkey facility, where infected monkeys transmitted it to others throughout the whole facility. The U.S. Army quietly moving in, killing all the monkeys, incinerating the remains then drenching the facility in powerful disinfectants before demolishing it. This happened a mere 15 miles from Washington D.C. Sooner or later, a human stain will appear that is also airborne. In the mean time, coughs and sneezes spread Ebola, and so does anything an infected person handles. This is a nightmarish disease that puts those who are trying to control and stop it at greater risk than everyone else of infection and death.

  • Truthseeker

    Would a certain race of people happen to be the most likely carriers, and would avoiding them be the best way to avoid Ebola?

  • Sick of it

    Here’s a thought – Ban them from air travel.

    • Nancy

      That’s part of what I posted on the original AJC article: Why in the name of Pete have we not already halted travel between all First World nations and the African continent? Then, we need to pull an Israel and erect an electric fence along our southern border. This is the perfect “excuse” to hand to the immigration-happy liberals: we’re not doing it to be “mean” or “racist”; we’re doing it to protect the health of our citizens.

      Of course, since the libs in charge care nothing for the health of US citizens, especially whites, they won’t go for this at all. But maybe the stubborn, hysterical refusal of TPTB to seal the border in light of a possible epidemic will some whites will finally open their eyes to the fact that the government is not interested in protecting us, and will come to our side.

      • Sick of it

        A significant number of liberals also want the border with Mexico sealed and not just for health reasons. Remember, this is a nation ruled by an extreme minority who cares nothing for the desires of anyone outside of their group.

      • bilderbuster

        The same non Whites who support the immigration policies of “The Jewish State” are the ones who favor open borders for the White nations.

        • Stan D Mute

          Not really, the open borders crowd has a very large pro-Palestinian component. And I for one enjoy the heck out of that delicious irony – that the leftists have turned against the Zionists. On the other hand of course, the Zionists have basically taken control of the political right and Neo-cons have pushed true Conservatives out of mainstream politics completely.

          • bilderbuster

            Non Whites of every stripe want open borders into White nations but only one non White ethnic group has the terrible power of the purse to make open borders happen.

          • Stan D Mute

            Mormons?

    • Bon, From the Land of Babble

      Ban them from air travel.

      That is a good idea even without ebola.

    • B.A_2014

      Banning them from air travel would be a sensible move. Not many sensible people in our respective governments.

  • Focal Joker

    Gimme an E —- E! Gimme a B —– B! haha, sorry, but I don’t care how many savage third worlders die, and they can take the methodist do gooders with them. Should have stayed home and helped the white poor in this country, sweetie. So long suckers!

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    the world is losing the battle to contain it

    Contain it?

    Hell, ebola is being brought into the United States intentionally, which is an act of bioterrorism against the American people.

    This means the government has no intention of stopping it.

    Can’t close the border because it may cost one Democrat vote, can’t stop flights from Africa because that would be racist.

    Yeah, but don’t worry…

    To the U.S. government, we are expendable.

    NEXT

    • Sick of it

      Drug-resistant TB is an even worse form of bioterrorism. But hey, it’s not like anyone’s trying to stop them.

    • Ella

      At 320 million, governments likes a healthy clean out of the excess. They will always find ways to protect oneself from infection because governments serve their own interests firstly.

    • dmxinc

      It would be nice to have a government that just looks out for our best interests, but that seems to be too much to ask.

    • me

      Georgia Guidestones, Agenda 21, the ‘green’ movement/religion, etc. Yup. Evil, Inc. A controlled pandemic would be the logical, humane response. However, this is going to spread intentionally, to get rid of the ‘surplus populations’, both here and abroad. AIDS isn’t killing everyone fast enough, nor is war, cancer, or diabetes. So, let’s have an intentional pandemic. Ebola is much more horrifying than the Bubonic Plague.
      Read: Richard Preston-The Hot Zone

      • me

        And this….

        • Vaccines stopped containing thimerosal in the summer of 2000.

          • Ella

            Do you trust vaccines enough to vaccinate your own daughter from childhood diseases?

          • Sure did. I’ve been vaccinated against rabies and distemper and almost everything else. I had a Croat veterinarian give me the shots intended for dogs. He later patched up my arm after I was wounded.

            I trust vaccines.

      • Stan D Mute

        Who? Who wants to reduce the population here? The 1%? Those are the people who can’t fling open the borders fast enough, who would see our population double or triple because it increases their wealth faster.

        The USA is NOT Africa. We don’t eat “bushmeat”. We don’t rape children thinking it will cure our disease. We don’t kill and eat albino humans thinking we will be cured of illness or gain magical powers. We don’t have open rivers of raw sewage running past our front doors and in which our children play. We don’t have electrical systems in our greatest cities which fail completely and routinely. We do have functioning government, roads, healthcare, and most importantly – we understand how disease is transmitted and have the good sense not to keep a rotting diseased corpse in our homes for days at a time while everyone we know comes to give parting hugs and kisses.

        I expected more realistic understanding of this situation here. Of all people, readers here should know that WE ARE NOT AFRICANS. Is it stupid to not take all precaution to prevent this (and many many other third world diseases) from crossing our borders? Yes! But it’s also just silly to think that we cannot control and contain this if we find it here. Our major risk here is the same population we see with AIDS today – homosexuals and Africans.

        • Laika

          Those calling for a massive reduction in population believe it is the White population that must be reduced.

          “A total world population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.”

          –Ted Turner

          “In order to stabilize world population, we must eliminate 350,000 people per day. It is a horrible thing to say, but it is just as bad not to say it.”

          –J. Cousteau, 1991 explorer and UNESCO courier

          “We must speak more clearly about sexuality, contraception, about abortion, about values that control population, because the ecological crisis, in short, is the population crisis. Cut the population by 90% and there aren’t enough people left to do a great deal of ecological damage.”

          –Mikhail Gorbachev

          “World population needs to be decreased by 50%”

          –Henry Kissinger

          “If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.”

          –Prince Phillip

          “Childbearing should be a punishable crime against society, unless the parents hold a government license. All potential parents should be required to use contraceptive chemicals, the government issuing antidotes to citizens chosen for childbearing.”

          –David Brower, first Executive Director of the Sierra Club

          “The world today has 6.8 billion people. That’s headed up to about 9 billion. Now if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by perhaps 10 or 15 percent.”

          –Bill Gates

          • Stan D Mute

            You couldn’t achieve that level of population reduction by just genociding white folks. And these aren’t the people pulling the strings of government today either. The folks who are calling the shots are named Adelson, Soros, Zuckerberg, Koch, Romney, etc. These are all open borders, growth at all costs, 1%’ers. In fact, in American politics, you never hear a peep about over-population anymore.

        • M&S

          Time Stan.
          Time is your major risk.
          These things work exponentially and it would only take a single person at a high risk entertainment or sporting event and one ER crew, late at night, failing to spot the signs of their first victim.
          If if gets past the fourth victim ‘generation’ it’s not stoppable by conventional means.

          • Stan D Mute

            But this virus is clearly not that contagious. There are what, under 2,000 cases in Liberia? Liberia with public health and hygiene that’s completely non-existent and a million people? Look at some video or read about the conditions in Monrovia. There is no place in America even remotely comparable except possibly some African populated homeless camps. I’ve not said that America could escape the virus completely – my argument is just that for an average white family in the suburbs, the risk is approximately the same as being struck by lightning.

  • Periapsis

    The frightening aspect of Ebola is the fact it is NOT resident in just humans the way Smallpox is. This virus, if it ever gets a foothold here, will find dogs, pigs, and bats to name a few species where it can hide before it causes mass die offs among humans. Even antelope can become reservoirs for this Satan Bug.

  • Stan D Mute

    The media wants nothing more than to create a panic that will stampede us into Africa to rescue the natives from their latest outbreak of incurable disease. Like AIDS, which now infects a quarter of Africa’s population (and a growing percentage of Africans here), the risk for the average white family in the suburbs is about the same as the risk of being struck by lightning.

    For the average African, germ theory is like magic – white man magic. We expect these primitive people, illiterate and with IQ’s in the 60’s, to believe in things (virus, bacterium) they cannot see. That’s fundamentally no different than their belief that eating an enemy’s heart will imbue the eater with his enemy’s strength, or that raping a child will cure them of AIDS. It’s just white man’s magic versus their traditional magic. So whether it’s Ebola, AIDS, or some other disease, they cannot help themselves and most of them will refuse to be helped.

    I’m not at all sure the average white really comprehends what life is like in Africa. It isn’t remotely comparable to anything we’ve experienced. The chaos, barbarity, corruption, filth, and just outright stupidity is incomprehensible and it is endemic. To think that disease outbreak there has parallels here is a mistake.

  • John_Boner

    Unfortunately this Ebola outbreak has only killed about 1,500 people. It will not be the cleansing agent we so desperately need.

  • Malgus

    Show of hands, please… which of you all REALLY thought that this mess could be “contained”? Any of the talking heads at the CDC or on any of the various faux “news” shows made the fatal mistake of thinking that Africans are just white people with a dark paint job, that they would behave like whites in the face of this disease… I just sat back and laughed every time one of those bumbling “smart people” blabbed anything about “containment” or “controlling” the disease. Their own leftist brainwashing is condemning us to die.

    A great, big, fat “I TOLDJA SO!!” from this end…

    Next up: Ebola: The American Edition.

    Sure as God made little green apples, it will show up here – thanks to our insane “immigration policy”… which is to say, no immigration policy at all, since any and all laws dealing with immigration are being ignored at will and/or suspended indefinitely. They’re so off-their-hinges insane, they will import these diseased wretches into the US for “treatment” and, just as in African’t, it will break containment and spread to the population at large…

    Of course, all this is discounting the fact that the African’t wretches that we DO have here already are importing disease-ridden bush meat through the US Postal system… there is no way the USPS can catch or stop ALL of the packages from Da Muddalan’ that have dead things in them… things that would make a billy goat puke, but these evolutionary throwbacks seem to think it’s downright tasty…

    All’s it will take is just one diseased package. And, just as in Contagion, the “R-Naught” will end up being 2 or 3…

    Ain’t that just special? Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy that our own Government – and thousands of African’t wretches – are happily toiling away, importing the source of our own doom…

  • crockadoodle6

    Since when is anything fed by the government to the public considered truthful? Do you really believe the unemployment rate is 6.5%? Or the debt is $17 trillion? Or the earth will cook secondary to man-made activity? Or the IRS is nonpolitical? Or Fast and Furious was Bush’s fault? Or Obama is the smartest man ever to have lived? EVERYTHING we are fed by the government or UN has an agenda driven narrative. Same with the Ebola reports from ‘WHO’, ‘CDC’, UN councils, Liberian Public Health Department, etc. I have lived in Liberia and I can tell you for certain that anything that happens outside Monrovia happens in a vacuum. There could be thousands that are dying from Ebola in the bush or maybe not a single one and the government vultures would not know about it. Nor do they care. It’s just a payday form them.
    In my experience take the exact opposite of what you are told by the government and MSM and you will be closer to the truth. Ebola – just another government attempt to create a distraction since the climate scam is melting away. ‘Scare the crap out of them so we can move the mutilcultural paradise a little closer’. Next it will be asteroids and aliens.

  • I hope he gets Ebola and gives it to all his left-wing “friends”.

  • Mark Caplan

    I’ve already vowed that at the first confirmed instance of an Ebola case in the U.S. I’m going to stop eating bushmeat.

  • DiversityIsDeath

    “’Six months into the worst Ebola epidemic in history, the world is
    losing the battle to contain it,’Doctors Without Borders International
    President Joanne Liu said to PBS.

    No s**** Sherlock! The kumbaya geniuses at “Doctors Without Borders” (an organization whose name alone is a tip-off that they are part of the problem) are declaring that a West African ebola epidemic can’t be contained.

  • Sam Hill

    “Study Simulates Likelihood of Ebola Spread”

    How Ebola started maybe? This is how it was professionally studied…

    5-10 yo African-like males and several fresh monkeys were setup in a hotel room for the evening (Hilton). Cameras filmed whatever happened that night to scientifically document the experiment. The front desk received several complaints of “indescribable” noises and other disturbances throughout the night.

    One phone call went like this, “Sir…did the ook-ook-ooka-eek-EEK noises sound like monkeys?” The response was, “Yes ma’am, I know what monkeys sound like in distress, and I will guarantee from the sounds that… something was just raped”,

    A list of other complaints were calls from the monkeys.