Minority Support May Boost Obama in 2012, Despite Economy

Danielle Kurtzleben, U.S. News, November 22, 2011

Economics may be priority one in the 2012 presidential election, but the people who are voting matter, too. That is one conclusion from a new report that predicts that Election Day 2012 will be a “showdown” between demographics and economics.

“The Path to 270,” a report released today from the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, says that a sagging economy and an enthusiastic Republican base could wipe out President Obama’s incumbency advantage in the 2012 presidential race. However, the president could maintain an advantage due to substantial support among several demographic groups, particularly the fast-growing Hispanic population.

“On the one hand, the state of the economy, writ large, is the biggest factor in favor of the GOP candidate, whoever that might be. . . . That’s the biggest thing the Republicans have going for them,” said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress and one of the study’s authors, at a panel discussion today. “On the other hand, the demographic shifts in this country . . . are very much in favor of Democrats and will help Obama in the 2012 election.”

A look at 2008 shows that the president had the support of 80 percent of minorities and only a four-point disadvantage among white college graduates. Meanwhile, among the white working class, Republicans had an 18-point advantage. But the minority share of voters is projected to have grown by 2 percent from 2008 to 2012, and growth among white college graduates is projected at 1 percent, whereas the white working-class share of the electorate is projected to shrink by 3 percent.

According to the report, even if white working-class voters support the GOP presidential candidate by a 30-point margin, as they did Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections, the president can still win the popular vote if he retains his support among white college graduates.

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  • Anonymous

    I have been saying for a while that there is a good chance the anointed one will return to office in 2012 . In my laymen’s opinion , 99.9% of those who voted for him will vote for him again .

    You’ve got to remember that something like 51% of the nation is on government relief of some type . They will vote for the incumbent . They know that they have his ear to a large degree . And as said in the article , they are coming into the nation daily . In fact , were it not for changing demographics he would have never been elected Senator much less President .

    Plus , if the lib-dems get their way – felons will have the vote . This should not be construed as support for the Republicans as they are just another shade of liberal . But for a white to vote Democrat is just plain insanity .

  • Shawn (the female)

    Well, of course the First Nitwit will be re-elected. Blacks have never been ones to assign responsibility to themselves or any other member of their annoited race. Color ALWAYS trumps every other issue. It’s not that they don’t see the guilt of other blacks; they simply don’t CARE. They see laws as a creation of whites, thus they actually cheer any blacks’ ‘victory over the white man.’

  • HH

    Why is this “fast-growing” Hispanic population so often cited in articles such as these? It is hardly a secret that the majority of these late-arriving “immigrants”(aka Invaders) are in this country illegally, and thus inelligable to vote! Or…are they tacitly admitting that many of these illegal invaders ARE in point of fact voting already?

    Just goes to show how brazen the Left and non-Whites in general really have become.

  • Crystal Evans

    Obama will end up losing the latino vote because they are disgusted with him concerning the number of deportations that has happened since he took office. Since they will not vote Republican, they will just stay home.

  • Liberal Weiss

    “In fact , were it not for changing demographics he would have never been elected Senator much less President .”

    A-Ha! Classic Racism. So even if a black or non white American man/ woman had all the requisites and credentials,no matter how worthy he/she would be, according to the dictum of white supremacism ( which masquerades as “nationalism” for good PR purposes) he/she would still be rejected from any office of higher ranking. That is why we liberals are far more rational and sane than you folks. Don’t blame me, you stated the obvious or shall I say, a Freudian slip. Oops!

    Little wonder why liberalism, universal love and the one world vision will win and conservatives will be obliterated and discarded into the dustbin of history!

    Lindsey W.

  • Anonymous

    Mindless whites who vote according to the image that is put in their minds by the perverse and deviant media and Hollywood,are whom put obama in.They remind me so much of Barney Fife after he has seen on of those G-Man, Glen Ford movies.They think that they are so hip, cool,chic, and intellectual,when they support obama.Like ole Barney thought he was a super lawman.Most of them wouldn’t do the things they do or purport to like what they say they like or think if they didn’t see it on television or in the movies.Try to reason with them if you can, and point these things out.Those things and scenario’s are written and staged, they are not reality. I believe that our lives and race depend on us being able to discern the difference!!!!!

  • Fritz

    This is really a no-brainer. Certainly the majority of Blacks will vote for Obama. He’s their best chance at continuing the welfare state that will enable his brothers and sisters to sit on their big Black butts and do nothing. Jobs? They don’t want no jobs. They want handouts. Most of them believe all Obama’s shortcomings are the work of evil White Tea Party people holding him down just as they believe thier collective shortcomings are Whitey’s fault. This is what they’ve been taught, by Whitey.

  • Anonymous

    Well hell after Newt showed his true red colors to furthur confuse and decieve white voters who can blame them?

    Now the media snakes are starting to hype the mutt messiah again and this is growing like an avalanche.

    The control of the mass media teaches whites how to think and what to do as usual. Just the existence of multiple white female lover Cain proves that. We know of at least 5 white females Cain went after but we also know thats just the tip of the iceberg and we dont know how many he was successful with and actually gave oral sex to and more in his car or office etc in an abuse of authority and just because thats what they want worst than anything in this world.

    Tiger Woods had 150 white onlys didnt he? Why no black females? They are all identical with the same genetics. Believe it. Its a fact.

    And you think somebody didnt know what they doing to have come up with the black slave deal 500 yrs ago? Are you kidding?

  • olewhitelady

    “…but the people who are voting matter too”. Really.

    Ya know what, that’s all that DOES matter!

    This article makes little sense, with its voodoo math regarding demographics in 2008 compared to now. Obama, of course, could win. But there’s little reason to logically believe he will. Every college student doesn’t support him, and fewer of them will likely bother to vote–so it doesn’t matter one whit whether their numbers have grown by 1%! The only thing he’s done that blacks like is to get elected. Most who go to the polls will still vote for him, but many will probably stay home. He speaks the lingo many Hispanics like, but the tide of the nation is turning against them. And what’s he actually doing to reverse it? Will great numbers of them bother with a ballot either? If Obama was white and the majority of the media not leftist, we would hear of of little but his impending doom.

    #1 Anonymous:

    That 51% of the nation “on relief” includes people on Social Security, and we all don’t vote like ghetto blacks. And so what if felons are given the vote? This must be done state by state, for one thing, and how fast can the legislatures work before the next presidential election? Add to that the fact that many ex-cons go right back to crime and don’t like to be anywhere the police might be–like the polls.

    As for Obama being elected senator–check the history of that. It was a witch’s brew of dirty politics and dropping-out candidates. He ultimately ran against a black Republican. Demographics had little to do with it.

  • john

    One major factor which is pointedly ignored by Republicans and goes unmentioned by Democrats is the massive voter fraud in practically all big-city precincts with large black populations. It’s become so epidemic that Republicans are always fighting an uphill battle to get legitimate representation.

    The MSM has no interest in investigating and reporting on this most criminal of all social transgressions, which is a revolution in progress without a shot being fired. Interestingly, the MSM also has no interest in reporting the incidence of clear voter intimidation by threatening blacks standing around inner city polling places and staring at whites threateningly as they enter the designated voting building.

  • Netzach

    #5 Liberal Weiss,

    “A-Ha! Classic Racism. So even if a black or non white American man/ woman had all the requisites and credentials,no matter how worthy he/she would be, according to the dictum of white supremacism ( which masquerades as “nationalism” for good PR purposes) he/she would still be rejected from any office of higher ranking. That is why we liberals are far more rational and sane than you folks. Don’t blame me, you stated the obvious or shall I say, a Freudian slip. Oops!”

    Don’t call yourself a liberal where I can hear you. You’re as much a liberal as a bonsai tree is a sequioa tree.

    Your conclusions are mistaken. If minority groups X and Y usually support a candidate of A party, and group X supports a candidate unequivocally as long as he is of group X, then candidates from group X and of A party have an increasing advantage as long as groups X and Y are growing. Sure, it’s racist. It’s just that that racism has nothing to do with whites.

    As it happens, if I could have voted for US president, I’d have voted for Obama. Plenty of things I didn’t like, plenty of things I suspected, but still, less bad than McCain. I still think so, though I hope he gets better opponent this time.

    “Little wonder why liberalism, universal love and the one world vision will win and conservatives will be obliterated and discarded into the dustbin of history!”

    When it comes to resurrecting old Communist slogans (and they sure had some good ones), I prefer “the ash heap of history”.

  • Ben N Indiana (AWG)

    In 2041 Whites will be a minority in America. Non-Whites vote for socialist Democrats by ‘landslides.’

    Therefore . . .

    Even if Obama fails to win re-election, it’s a matter of time before our nation is overrun by socialists.

  • John Engelman

    April 10, 2008

    Gallup PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama leads John McCain by a significant margin among voters with the most education, but trails the likely Republican nominee among voters with the least formal education.

    http://goo.gl/aUCjD

    ——

    Mitt Romney is not bizarre enough to win the votes of the Republican base if he wins the nomination. Well educated whites will not vote for any other Republican.

  • Luke

    With the GOP having been labeled ‘The Stupid Party’ by the late Sam Francis, it would seem as though the morons who run the GOP actually take some sort of perverse pride in that label and do everything possible to make sure they never lose that title.

    Let’s recap. Finally, after 8 long and bloody years of wars that Jorge Wmd Boosch and his neo-con pals lied our nation into, based on false accusations / insinuations that were caught and thankfully preserved on hundreds of Youtube videos, and equally false and outright fabricated ‘evidence’ which never existed, accompanied by manufactured ‘threats’ which also never existed – the slow-to-awaken American public finally snapped out of their state of zombie-hood and realized what a piece of lying, criminal garbage the GOP had become – and threw them out of office, voting in a mulatto who’s only appealing trait was his deceitful promise to end all these senseless wars that the vast majority of intelligent Americans are sick of – and which are bankrupting our nation and bringing financial ruin down upon the ship of state. Remember, people. Juan McAmnestyMcCain was singing bomb, bomb, bomb Iran as if he were some pimple-faced adolescent 14 year old kid with an IQ stuck in single digits – and the traditional conservative GOP base refused to vote for this lunatic and war mongering psychopath. Remember also that in 2008, just as now – the one legitimate anti-war, America first, non-interventionist candidate – Ron Paul – received the overwhelming vast majority of financial donations from the U.S. Military – who are obviously sick and tired of having their lives put at risk in these endless and illegal neo-con wars.

    A recent, widely circulated poll on the Web indicated that a whopping 85% of Americans are sick of these wars and want NO MORE NEW WARS to be started.

    So, what might the lessons be here that the blithering morons who run the GOP seem to be intellectually incapable of absorbing into their concrete encased, pea-sized brains? Well, how about this: the intelligent Americans who are paying attention to what is going on in their nation and in the world around them have finally concluded that these wars are not only immoral and unjustified, but they are going to cause the total financial collapse of our nation, and if these criminal, blood-thirsty neo-cons are not reined in – they are going to wind up causing WW3 and we stand a good chance of getting nuked.

    So, what does the GOP (aside from Ron Paul) do to react to this changing public sentiment? Why, they send their IQ defective challengers to Obama up to the stage on debate night and they take turns foaming out the mouth like a pack of rabid dogs, screaming for more wars and for more increased defense spending – which clearly spells World War 3 and nuclear bombs falling on American cities and millions of people getting vaporized into a substance that might look a lot like tomato soup.

    Is this not a clear sign that the entire GOP, aside from Ron Paul, have gone completely insane? And, they expect us to vote for one of these war mongering psychopaths in 2012?

  • John Engelman

    According to a poll by CNN/ORC on November 18-20, 2011, by 67 to 37 percent Americans favor “Increases in taxes on businesses and higher-income Americans.” Support for the increases has increased since August 5-7, 2011.

    http://www.pollingreport.com/budget.htm

    Nevertheless, Congressional Republicans prevent such increases.

    I predict that support will continue to increase, and that this issue will doom the Republicans in November 2012.

    Because of the economy it is difficult to feel much enthusiasm for Barack Obama. Nevertheless, unemployment is gradually inching down.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/UNRATE.txt

    The President’s economic policies probably kept the Great Recession from becoming Great Depression II.

    Most Americans were better off when Bill Clinton was president. There is little reason to believe that Republican economic policies will benefit any but the rather small minority that is better off now.

  • White Power

    When the GOP gives us amnesty loving politicians like Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, is it any wonder why Obama will win? Not to mention the fact that most GOP canidates want to start another war in the Middle East by invading Iran. The GOP learned nothing from the foolishness of George W. Bush.

  • Anonymous

    Minorities are not so dumb,they will just not show up this year to vote. On the other hand,Whites will show up in record numbers.

  • Question Diversity

    17 John Engelman wrote:

    Nevertheless, unemployment is gradually inching down

    Mainly because of statistical legerdemain, and the fact that what scant little job growth there has been, native born white Americans have been mostly shut out.

    The President’s economic policies probably kept the Great Recession from becoming Great Depression II.

    I’m glad to know that your vote for Obama won’t swing the election; He is going to win Delaware anyway.

    In certain parts of the country, this IS Great Depression II.

    I predict that support will continue to increase, and that this issue will doom the Republicans in November 2012.

    I don’t think it’s the biggest concern of even most people that support it. Obama will win or lose re-election based on working middle class white voters in rust belt states for the most part. It will be their assessment of the economy next November which will make the difference.

    Ironically, in another comment in another story here at AR, you’re peddling Romney, someone born with silver spoon firmly in mouth, as the only Republican that could beat Obama. He might be the only Republican who would be all but guaranteed to lose, though I think he’s still going to win both the nomination and the election.

  • John Engelman

    Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> November 22, 2011 –

    In a November 2012 matchup with President Obama, Romney gets 44 percent to Obama’s 45 percent, compared to Obama’s 47 – 42 percent lead in Quinnipiac University’s November 2 survey. The president leads other GOP contenders by wider margins:

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1676

    NEW YORK, Nov. 16 (UPI) — Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich is the strongest GOP candidate when matched head to head with President Obama, a McClatchy-Marist Poll indicated.

    The former U.S. House speaker is just 2 percentage points behind Obama, 47 percent to 45 percent, survey results released Tuesday indicated.

    http://goo.gl/SuxuD

    Obama 46%, Romney 44% in Nationwide SurveyUSA Poll

    http://goo.gl/Th1Yp

    Gallup November 10, 2011

    PRINCETON, NJ — President Obama now essentially ties, 43% to 42%, a “generic” Republican candidate when U.S. registered voters are asked whom they are more likely to vote for in the presidential election next year. This marks a change from October and September, when the Republican candidate was ahead.

    http://goo.gl/ugDqj

    Unemployment has continued to decline since it reached 10.1 percent in October 2009. It never reached the 10.8 percent it did during the Reagan administration in November and December 1982.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/UNRATE.txt

    During most of the time that Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama were in office for the same amount of time, President Obama was ahead in the polls.

    http://goo.gl/UKvmc

    If unemployment continues to decline the President could be positioned for a decisive victory a year from now that will include control of both houses of Congress. President Obama is unlikely to get most of the white vote, but he currently leads slightly with the better educated.

  • White Power

    Mitt Romney is a RINO. He will say anything to get elected. Do you think he will actually stop illegal immigration? Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich openly support amnesty. The GOP will be doing nothing to stop illegal immigration like they did during the Bush years.

  • Anonymous

    #5 Liberal Weiss

    Um…you do know that 95% (or 98%) of Africans Americans voted for Obama right? There is even articles talking about “racial loyalty.”

    http://goo.gl/GjZY5

    You aren’t as wise as you believe yourself to be nor as individual.

    P.S. By the way you argument about job merit has nothing to do with the article nor the comment you quoted. The person was talking about changing demographics and how politics/society changes with it.

  • Coach

    It will take a lot more than liberal wishful thinking to get Obama reelected. The problem he will have that will NOT be spoken about until it is too late if at all is that they are probably having trouble finding candidates. You can’t beat somebody with nobody. I’m in NYC. My Republican Congressman won by about 4% yet here we are almost December and the Democrats have nobody to run. What most people don’t consider is that when you want to run YOU haver to put up about 50 to 100k of your OWN money. Who wants to write a check for 50k that you’ll never see again and have to run with Barack Obama? Oh they will find guys. They are usually lawyers who want the sign saying “Bill Jones for Congress” to show their grandchildren. Candidates like that DON’T create a buzz and DON’T help raise money. Final thought DON’T believe the media lies about Obama having ONE BILLION DOLLARS to run with – he is WAY behind that now.

    We will see a rerun of last year except BECAUSE last year happened and PROVED it could happen there will be even more second and third tier candidates which will go down in even bigger numbers.

  • ATBOTL

    Obama may well win reelection despite the awful economy. The GOP contenders are falling all over themselves advocating policies that benefit the rich elites and making bellicose statements about Iran. This is what the big donors want to hear.

    The Dems are letting them run their mouths now and will use all those statements against whoever wins the GOP nomination in the general election.

    We’ll see how the poll number look when Obama runs nonstop campaign adds quoting the GOP candidate saying he will cut taxes for the rich and invade Iran.

  • Fritz

    Lindsey, Lindsey, Lindsey, what will it take to wake you from the utopian dream of a world were we are all created exactly equal, entitled to exactly the same and love each other unconditionally? Do you not recognize that it is Blacks who stand by their brother/sister Blacks no matter their merits? Obama could not have been elected without a substantial White vote, many like yourself, just jumping at the opportunity to prove they’re not racists. Most knew nothing about the man, and still don’t. He has his school records sealed. He’s supposed to be this brilliant constitutional scholar, yet the only thing he’s ever published is two books about himself, one of which he likely didn’t even write. And then there’s that racist church he spent 20 years in. Did you ever visit that church’s website BEFORE the Rev. Wright videos came out? I did. The home page was a map of Africa and in their mission statement they proudly stated they were Afro-centrists while in the same breath calling Euro-centrists “racists”. I’m sure you never worked in a situation were the majority of the workforce was Black, because if you did, you would know how racist the majority of Black are. It’s not Conservatives who are destined for the dust heap of history, it’s Liberalism. Liberalism is just Communism on the slow road. Eventually, even dreamers like you will wake up and realize the truth, about race and human nature and nature itself. I suggest you go take a trip to Africa and see what happens when Whites hand over power to Blacks, but be care. Johannesburg is the rape capitol of the world now.

  • Anonymous

    24 — Fritz wrote at 6:53 PM on November 26:

    Lindsey, Lindsey, Lindsey, what will it take to wake you from the utopian dream of a world were we are all created exactly equal, entitled to exactly the same and love each other unconditionally?

    —————————————

    Fritz, Lindsey knows exactly what she is doing. She is a troll and an anti-White, period. Think Tim Wise.

    She comes on here to spread her hate against Whitey just as Tim Wise hates Whitey. Most of us know “her kind” by now.

  • Anonymous

    Liberal Weiss…as if the “voting block” of blacks somehow does not have a racial connotation. It is okay to look at life through a racial/ethnic filter if you are black or hispanic, but not if you are white. I think that is more of a Freudian slip than what was meant in the comment, i.e. those who understand and support the give and take politics of the voting booth vs the groupthink, entitlement mindend narcisstic.

  • Anonymous

    “When the GOP gives us amnesty loving politicians like Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, is it any wonder why Obama will win? Not to mention the fact that most GOP canidates want to start another war in the Middle East by invading Iran. The GOP learned nothing from the foolishness of George W. Bush”

    You could not be more correct. I see some of the comments like you would have to be insane to be a White and vote Democratic. Since both parties are anti WN it comes down to not voting, or maybe a third party. However if you forced me to vote for a Dem or Rep. I am sorry to say the nod would go to the Dems. There is a 50/50 chance they will not start a war with Iran. The REPs openly say they will start a war. I think that war will be the end of the U.S. At least the Dems may give us at least a few more years to revolt befoe there is nothing left to revolt over.

  • Bon, From the Land of Babble

    John Engelman writes:

    According to a poll by CNN/ORC on November 18-20, 2011, by 67 to 37 percent Americans favor “Increases in taxes on businesses and higher-income Americans.”

    Nevertheless, Congressional Republicans prevent such increases…I predict that support will continue to increase, and that this issue will doom the Republicans in November 2012.

    John:

    Tax the Rich? Isn’t that one of 0bama’s class warfare mantras?

    Recently 0bama stated: I do think at a certain point you’ve made enough money.

    0bama is fueling class warfare aimed at “The Rich.” Who get to decide who is rich? 0bama? The jerks at OWS who believe they are entitled “free” health care, a “world-class education” or a “guaranteed living-wage income” regardless of employment” status? — without having a clue that these things cost a lot of money, which the government DOES NOT HAVE except by printing it, borrowing it, or confiscating it from someone.

    Walter Williams writes:

    Class warfare thrives on ignorance about the sources of income. Listening to some of the talk about income differences, one would think that there’s a pile of money meant to be shared equally among Americans. Rich people got to the pile first and greedily took an unfair share

    Did” Tax The Rich” policies work in 1932 and 1935?

    The onset of the Great Depression in 1929 led to a sharp decline in tax revenues, as the economy contracted. President Herbert Hoover’s response was to push for a major tax increase. The Revenue Act of 1932 raised tax rates across the board, with the top rate rising from 25 percent to 63 percent. The $462 million deficit of 1931 jumped to $2.7 billion by 1932 despite the tax increase… the higher tax rates on the wealthy actually caused the tax burden to be shifted to the nonwealthy…Economists today recognize Hoover’s tax increase as a terrible blunder, which deepened and prolonged the depression.

    Roosevelt excoriated Hoover in the 1932 campaign for his error. What did Roosevelt do after the election? Call for even higher taxes aimed at “The Rich” (some posit he did this to punish his enemies). I read once where Roosevelt took great pleasure in reviewing his enemies’ tax returns after his “soak the rich” policies were implemented.

    Roosevelt Roosevelt pressed for still higher rates on the rich, especially aimed at the very wealthy. The top rate was raised to 79 percent, estate taxes were raised, and a wide variety of other taxes increased as well. The U.S. economy suffered a sharp setback in 1937. That and Democratic losses in 1938 eventually led to a scale-back of overt “soak-the-rich” tax policies.

    Source: The Futility of Raising Tax Rates, Cato Institute, Policy Analysis No. 192. http://goo.gl/qAwWo

    Would it be different this time do you think? Should 0bama repeat the errors of Hoover and Roosevelt in the name of “Economic Justice” when all evidence shows this policy doesn’t work?

    Is 0bama right that at a “certain point, people have made too much money?” At “a certain point”, it is 0bama’s duty to confiscate what he thinks is “the right amount” from The Rich and redistribute it to those who didn’t earn it (in the name of “Economic Justice”, of course)?

    Will a Tax the Rich policy work this time? Dr. Williams certainly doesn’t think so:

    The prospects are dim for a society that makes mascots out of the unproductive and condemns the productive.

    Here also: http://goo.gl/mUZr

    Bon

  • Anonymous

    Mexican migration north is probably the biggest strategic plan of the sell-out Democratic party to keep and retain power forever, whatever the cost in American identity. If they win in 2012 then they may win forever becasue they will increase the 3ird world inflow while playing lying lip service about the wonderfulness of diversity.

  • John Engelman

    Bon, From the Land of Babble,

    Copying opinions expressed by others is unimpressive. Cliches about “class warfare” are less impressive. The legitimate function of the internet is to document facts used in one’s own arguments.

    From 1931 to 1940 the top tax rate rose from 25 to 81 percent.

    http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=213

    During this time per capita gross domestic product in terms of 1996 dollars rose from $5,672 to $7,432.

    http://www.singularity.com/charts/page99.html

    From 1932 to 1940 unemployment declined from 23.6 to 14.6 percent.

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0104719.html

    You can put your spin on it if you want, but those are the facts.

    You quoted this: “the U.S. economy suffered a sharp setback in 1937. That and Democratic losses in 1938 eventually led to a scale-back of overt ‘soak-the-rich’ tax policies.

    “Source: The Futility of Raising Tax Rates, Cato Institute, Policy Analysis No. 192. http://goo.gl/qAwWo

    The increase in unemployment after 1937 was caused by cuts in government spending. Unemployment declined when government spending was increased again. Far from scaling back soak the rich tax policies, the top tax rate continued to grow. In 1944 it was raised to 94 percent.